Shaw66

There certainly seems to be a pattern to seasons for teams led by Sean McDermott: Start better prepared and ahead of most teams, slump in mid-season as other teams improve, raise team toughness to finish the season strong. The Bills’ 2022 season seems to be following the pattern. The Bills beat the Lions 28-25 in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. The Bills survived another sloppy second half performance, the hallmark of their 2022 slump. Trailing by three with less than ten minutes left in the game, Josh Allen engineered a 90-yard touchdown drive (an Allen specialty) to take a three-point lead, their first offensive score of the half. Were the Bills moving into phase three of the season? Would they show that end-of-season toughness that wins games in December? Well, no, not yet. Tyler Bass missed the extra point, and the Bills defense failed again to make the stop to win the game. The Lions tied the game with a ten-play, 42-yard drive and a 51-yard field goal with 23 seconds remaining in regulation. Now, it was time for the tough-as-nails Bills to emerge. Less than three weeks earlier, the Bills needed a late score to beat the Jets. Allen started a drive with a big throw to Diggs, but a penalty brought the ball back and the Bills didn’t recover. The following week, an Allen fumble and an Allen interception gave the Vikings a win. This time, either literally or figuratively, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs said to the rest of the offense, “We are not going to lose another one of these game.” This time, everyone performed. On first down, Allen found Diggs with a throw that only Allen can make, and Diggs made a tough catch in heavy traffic for 36 yards. No penalty this time. The Bills took the first of their timeouts, Allen ran twice for 12 yards, the second on the first quarterback power sweep the Bills have run in weeks. Credit Ken Dorsey for saving it for a time when they really needed it. Bass redeemed himself with a 45-yard field goal to win the game. A few miscellaneous comments about the game: 1. Tre’Davious White returned to the lineup a year after his knee injury. He played only a few series and returned to the bench for the rest of the game. The Bills continue to take his recovery slowly. We can expect to see him on the field more against the Patriots. 2. Without White but with Jordan Poyer back in the lineup, the Bills pass defense continued the mediocre run they’ve been on for several weeks. The Lions had a lot of success in their mid-range game, managing to get separation that Jared Goff attacked with accurate throws. Bills defenders often were a step behind and worse, they sometimes missed the tackle. It’s not a coincidence that the Bills’ pass defense is struggling more while Tremaine Edmunds has been out. A. J. Klein, a clever acquisition by Brandon Beane, filled in nicely, but he simply does not cover the ground that Edmunds does 3. The pass defense also suffered from a less than spectacular pass rush from the front four. The Bills missed Rousseau and Epenesa, and then they lost Von Miller to injury late in the first half. Ed Oliver rose to the occasion with a sack for a safety and several other disruptive plays, and DaQuan Jones was a factor again. Because the defensive backfield was giving Goff throwing opportunities, the rest of the defensive line was unable to get the coverage sacks they collected earlier in the season. 4. I’ve been on Isaiah McKenzie all season long, but I have to give him his due this week. He was outstanding against the Lions – solid route running and sure hands led to six receptions and a touchdown. Great game 5. Meanwhile, I’m amazed that James Cook continues to get playing time over Nyheim Hines. Cook shows no creativity as a runner, and he is a disappointment in the passing attack. He had one clear drop, an unfortunate bobble, and his route running caused a near interception. Tony Romo explained it well – when the receiver shows the quarterback something, the receiver must stay with it. Having gotten to the check-down zone, Cook cut right and then cut back left. Allen threw on the first cut, and Cook unwittingly ran away from the ball which sailed almost all the way to a waiting linebacker. 6. Spencer Brown is scary inconsistent in pass protection. He’s mobile, and he’s a scrapper, but defenders beat him often. 7. David Quessenberry has filled in nicely, first for Brown earlier in the season and for Dion Dawkins in the Lions game. He’s been solid. 8. Devin Singletary is a stud. He needs a crease, and this offensive line sometimes doesn’t give him one, but he gets every yard that’s there, every time. He’s quick, shifty, and tough. It’s a pleasure to see the guy at work. The Patriots game on Thursday has huge implications. The Bills need it to keep pace with the Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans in the chase for the bye and home field. And they need it to hold on to a share of the division lead. The Pats are for real, with a really tough defense and an opportunistic offense. Now’s the time for the Bills to raise the level of their play. Now’s when they need people returning to the lineup. Welcome to December football. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Real Bills fans can open their hearts even to Dan Darragh. Embrace the moment!

Irv Weinstein, Hank Stram, and Thanksgiving football! Warms my heart.

Thanks. Good discussion.

I think this misses the point. I don't even know what plays they ran on all those second or third and two or one to go. Certainly when they went for it on fourth and two from the seven, they weren't "taking shots." They only had seven yards to get to the goal line. So, fine, you like taking the shot on second and two. If you're going to take that shot, then you should be pretty comfortable that you can make it the two yards on third down. What I'm talking about is that Dorsey doesn't seem to have any plays he can rely on to make two yards, because on third down, and on fourth down from the seven, and on the two point conversions, they couldn't gain two yards. Third down is money down, and the Bills are going bust on the money down.

Actually, I don't think so. I mean, yes, he had the right message to encouraged him, but I think the first thing that McDermott was thinking was "we don't want this to get out of control right here."

When they went for it on fourth down instead of kicking the field goal in the Vikings, I was screaming at them. What possibly made them think they would convert on fourth and two from the seven when they had just failed on second and two and third and two? If they had a play that would have worked on fourth and two, why didn't they run it on second down. And they had already failed FOUR times on second or third and two or 1 in the second half! That's a huge failure.

This thread is interesting because there are so many different issues going on at the same time. I'll comment on a few. First, the bolded. Yes, Bills controlled the game, but the two garbage time TDs bother me. The Bills have shown over and over that they let teams back into the game late. I think their defense gets too conservative, because they don't want to give up the big play, and the result is that they give up touchdown drives that do eat some clock but that require the team to make plays to win the game late. That game should not have come down to recovering an onside kick, and that isn't the first time it's happened. Did that style of play work against the Browns? Yes. Did it work against the Vikings? I think people who are arguing that in the third quarter you always take the points don't understand analytics. Good analytics allow you to understand the probabilities of winning the game if you get zero, one, or two points in that situation. Someone told McDermott that the best probability of winning was going for two. Those probabilities include the likelihood of all different kinds of things happening in the final 20 minutes. I've always believed that you should take the points the game is giving you unless you need the points, so I would have kicked the extra point, but I understand that statistically, that was the wrong move. After all, being ahead by 12 is no different from being ahead by 13, and being ahead 14 would have been much better. So, I'm guessing McDermott made the right call. EXCEPT, I'm not do sure the analytics include data about how horrible the Bills have been lately when they need two yards. That's why going for it on fourth down against the Vikings was such a terrible decision. The Bills had been awful all game when they needed two yards, and they had been the week before. McDermott definitely should have taken the field goal. And I think that comes to the real point, which is that I think Dorsey is not getting the job done. He has to have plays to get two yards and so far as I can tell, he doesn't. That's a real indictment. Okay coach, what do you have on third and two? Well, he seems to have nothing. Sending McKenzie wide is just not the play. McKenzie is not a guy who gets the last half yard. He relies on his speed, and his speed alone. That's my problem with Cook, too. If you're going with a ball carrier in that situation, it has to be Motor. He's the only choice. Earlier in the season, they would throw a screen to Diggs. If Diggs had run the play that McKenzie ran, I'd guess that Diggs would have scored. He certainly wouldn't have run out of bounds. Or Hines. If the Bills don't have the personnel to run that play successfully, then why are they running it? It's on Dorsey. And yes, Gilliam has to find a way to make the block. And yes, give credit too to the defense, but we don't care about the Browns. We care about the Bills, and the Bills continue to underperform. One other thing. Allen. They're not giving the ball to Allen. We haven't seen any power runs with him in a while. Certainly his elbow is a concern. But I also think that the Bills are still keeping plays in their pocket. December games is when we're going to start seeing some more variety in the offense, and we're going to see them turn Allen loose on occasion.

I think McD was reminding Diggs that whatever they did right there would be on TV for the next week, so let's be sure we're calm. Whatever needs to be said can be said behind closed doors.

You're correct about this. Against the Browns and against the Vikings, it was amazing how many throws were to receivers with a defender right there. Excellent throws. And I also agree that missing Hyde makes a difference. And missing White. And no Poyer against the Vikings. All you can expect from a deep back is an occasional pass breakup, but the Bills are getting essentially none now. Still, the original post is correct. It seems like the longer the third down is, the more likely it is the opponent will convert. It's horrible. And it's a problem that they need to address.

In that case, I'm sorry for your bitterness.

No, that is not all. It's situational football. The downside of risking a bad throw is MUCH bigger in overtime than in the second quarter. Josh has to know the difference and make a better decision.

A quarterback who understands the play design understands that Singletary will release late, because the qb knows Singletary will block first. Josh had good protection, so he had time to see both that the pass defenders had dropped out of the area where Singletary would go. A qb doing his job in that situation will wait for Singletary to clear and give him the ball.

Right. Every team has tendencies, and good opponents know hat those tendencies are. One of the things that has made Andy Reid a success is that he always seems to have some plays that go against the tendencies. The problem was not that Patrick Peterson knew that the Bills like going to Davis over the middle in the end zone. The problem was that Allen didn't know, or forgot, that Peterson would know that. That's a problem with Allen and with Dorsey. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots because they didn't seem to understand that the Patriots would know they liked that little slant pass on the goal line. Ultimately, it's McDermott's problem. His job is to be sure the coaches and players are doing their jobs. And right now, his coaches and players aren't getting it done, which means McDermott's not getting it done.

Right. People seem to think the coaches know what the defense will look like and then should call rhe right play. That's silly. This play was designed properly. If the defense was straight man, or of they were blitzing, there would be opportunities downfield. If the defense dropped, the opportunities were short. Allen didn't execute.

Absolutely. And in that situation he MUST take the safe throw. Bad decision in the second quarter, okay, you have time to recover. Your last possession of the game, no. That play unfolded exactly as it was designed, and he knew he would have Singletary coming open. He knew it. Allen will not be great if he doesn't get his mental processing under control.

Nothing wrong with the play call. It created opportunities to get the score if someone gets an advantage over the defense. Imagine talking to Allen on Thursday before the game. Tell him the play call, and ask him what his thought process is supposed to be, and he would have said he should take his drop, verify the defense, run through his progression. If no one is open and having seen the drops the defense took, he knows that Singletary will be in the short zone in the middle. Allen knows all of that but in the moment, he blew it. On Thursday afternoon, he would have told you that in that situation, second down, in field goal position, the obvious decision is give it Singletary and see what he can do. Worst case, absolute worst case, the Bills would be five yards closer to the goal line, have another shot at the TD, and have a gimme field goal, if necessary to salvage the tie. Flat out horrible decision. Brady became the GOAT by making that very decision dozens and dozens of times over 20 years. Manning, too. Favre is not the GOAT because he made the decision that Allen made.

Bad decision. all day long. The point is this: He had choices. His job is to make the right decision. I've seen a few replays and read only a little bit of what people have been saying. Maybe Davis was supposed to cut across instead of carrying the route into the end zone, although we've seen that throw into the end zone lots of times. Maybe Allen intended to get the ball up in the air, over the defender, and he didn't make the throw. Maybe this, maybe that. Some people now say he had Morris, and others say he had Singletary. His protection was good, and he had daylight opening up to his left and perhaps could have run. The primary point, the overwhelming point, is that the decision MUST be governed by the situation. The situation is this: It's second down, so it is not do or die. Absolute, bottom line, the Bills MUST get a field goal. That's number one. Do not do anything that jeopardizes getting the field goal. The videos and stills are clear about one thing - the Vikings dropped six or seven men to protect the end zone and inside the five. The short zones were wide open. Yes, there may have been a window here or there to get the TD, but given the situation, Allen cannot try to put the ball in the window he saw or thought he saw. Singletary was on his way into the middle of the dump off zone, and Allen probably could have run for as many yards as Singletary would have gotten. Bills probably get the first down, and they have more shots to score. But regardless of that, Allen cannot risk something bad happening on that down. He must throw it to a wide open receiver, somewhere, and he had choices to do that.

The 49ers ran a QB sneak for a TD against the Chargers last night, sometime in the second half. From the one. The Chargers had three defensive linemen nose-to-nose with them. They were lined up on the goal line, their heads between the one and the goal line. After the play, all three of those guys were two-yards+ deep in the end zone. One center and two guards, alone, drove all three of them back there. There's been continuing discussion on this board about how the Bills ignore the offensive line in the top of the draft. Yesterday, again, they paid the price for bottom feeding for offensive linemen.

Rent through it all. This one was really bad, emotionally.

I agree. Eliminate thes risk on the bad snap. Live with the safety if it happens. But avoid the td.

Yes that's what it looked like, and that's why can't complain too much. But when you look at what happened you can see he didn't tackle him. He executed his block excellently and his man fell over.

I think you got it exactly right. What the official saw were the things you usually see on a hold - tackle's arms outside the shoulder, defender looked like he was breaking through, defender goes down with tackle on top of him. But it wasn't actually a hold. Dion had him blocked properly the whole way through the play. The call might have changed the outcome of the game.

Shaw's announcement of his retirement is just further evidence that Shaw doesn't know what he's talking about.

I agree with this. However, I think it's not that they think they're the Greatest Show. The Bills game plan is based on what they think they can have success at against the defense they're facing. If they pass a lot, it's because that's the way they think they can best move the ball. They're trying to do what someone said the Pats did in their prime. Do what works best against this opponent. If the Bills are going for big chunks too aggressively, it's because they misjudged what they thought they could do. And let me mention here something I keep thinking about. These games aren't played in vacuums. They're played against teams, many of which have athletes as good or nearly as good as the Bills (Jets have some really talented defenders), who are just as highly motivated, day in and day out, as the Bills. They have smart coaches who are working to accomplish exactly the opposite of what the Bills coaches want to accomplish. Most games are intensely contested, in-your-face battles, and it simply isn't surprising that the other team wins sometimes. Face it, we love it when the Jaguars beat the Chiefs; we just don't like it when they beat the Bills. I'm sure there were people who follow the Jets who knew the Jets could compete with the Bills.