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[Vague Title] Thoughts on a hypothetical trade.
Rochesterfan replied to dbfla10's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
1) Because this team typically limits rookies especially early in the year until they get experience 2) Because with 4 starting caliber WRs that are good route runners - I do not believe that a TE gets many targets. The TE position is mostly coming out of the H-Back spot and is a part of their blocking scheme and I do not see a rookie being trusted in that role. 3) The team values LBs and I can not see them moving on from a young guy because that means you have Klein as your starting MLB most likely and that really hurts the entire team. 4) Rookie TEs tend to struggle and and take time to become anything - so can this kid come in a do something almost no one else has done and become a star TE. 5) What we have seen with Josh is that he is most comfortable in multi-WR spread formations and he can pick his target. He has for years even when we had very limited WRs - he has picked out WRs as much possible and limited his reads to TEs and RBs, except in the red zone. 6) Finally - I think Josh really likes and trusts Knox and therefore even bringing in a top flight rookie - I think they go with a lot of 11 personnel with a RB and 1 TE and Knox would be the primary guy mostly due to trust. I could go on, but it centers mostly around how rookies are utilized and the trust and knowledge level needed to succeed in this offense. -
[Vague Title] Thoughts on a hypothetical trade.
Rochesterfan replied to dbfla10's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Nope - not a chance would I make that trade. Get rid of a young 2X Probowl LB for a questionable TE that we will barely use. I think we need to rethink a few things around here. 🤦♂️ -
Zach Ertz about to be traded? [Edit: or Not]
Rochesterfan replied to Rubes's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Totally agree - that is why I don’t believe people that say Daboll doesn’t like TEs. I think Josh has shown himself to be most comfortable when he has a variety of routes available and that happens best out of the spread with multiple WRs. -
I think an highly effective DE can still be sought after, but teams have really done a great job of scheming quick plays or draw plays to neutralize specific DEs. I agree that a couple of talented DTs getting pressure and blowing up the middle of the field is a huge improvement to most teams. The DEs rush up field and contain and then crash for the sacks, but the DTs pushing the pile back is the usual start to a great pass rush.
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I think every team that has had Ngakoue have felt he was overrated. He is now on team 4 and his presence (or lack when he moved on) did not change the team at all. I think the Ravens wanted Judon, but not at the price paid by NE. Judon is an excellent player in the Ravens scheme - he just is not worth what NE paid for a team that is trying to build around what they hope is a franchise QB.
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Except it isn’t for this year. Milano is 7 and Addison is 4 based on the restructure- so Lawson also costs you Williams. That for a guy that again made little difference on Cincinnati and has historically (including last year) had less production than Addison. Basically an EDGE that got the QB down 5 times would cost you at minimum 3 starters from last year that you resigned. With little to no guarantee that he signs with Buffalo. Give me the 3 guys you know versus the one guy that you don’t.
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How do you figure? Lawson’s best year with sacks was his rookie year by far - he has not been getting better - he has been getting more snaps with less production per snap. 2019 was more productive than last year as he had 5.0 sacks on 477 defensive snaps. He had more tackles for loss and played better all around. In 16 games in 2020 and well over 120 additional snaps - he got 0.5 more sacks than Mario Addison for the Bills. (A guy you and several other posters are killing for his production). He also had less overall tackles and less tackles for loss than Addison in all of those extra snaps. He is younger than Addison, but he is getting paid more than 2x what Addison is paid for less production (both career averages and last season per snap). Look I liked Lawson and would of been fine with him on the Bills at a reasonable contract - around Addison/Murphy level. At nearly 2x at - his pass rushing is not good enough to warrant that kind of money. Heck Lawson had fewer sacks than Shaq Lawson did for the Bills in 1/2 the snaps in 2019. Watching the Bengals- he was noticeably on a few occasions, but he never popped. He was Shaq Lawson, Mario Addison type player - getting push - making a few plays, but rarely flat out beating a tackle 1:1. He is a good player, but I think the Jets way over paid - same as they did with Corey Davis - a speed guy with questionable hands.
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Wow - really hits home the nice deals Beane got by signing his own. The Bills controlled costs this year and look at some of the money spent for guys.
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It seems that most fans agree that yes a static group of starters that has consistently shown improvement when healthy is better than what KC has done in losing their entire OLine. That WR2 they lost missed several games and the Bills managed to go 5-0 when he was out. His replacement also was the only receiver in the NFL to have over 20 catches and average over 19 yards a catch in the entire NFL over the last 6 games (per Sal). So yes they have lost a little, but they adjusted last year and they have guys to continue to adjust. With Davis and Hodgkins - maybe they look to big body some DBs and perform more double moves. The entire offense might change with out Brown as they move to more and different route combos. Just saying - well they are the same and therefore worse is foolish. They are young and have a staff that has changed up every year as the players develop - there is no reason to assume they are just sitting there even with nearly the same roster.
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Maybe a rookie going on his second year that gets an entire off season. Maybe the return to health of both LBs that they used a ton in the zero gap in 2019, but only limited in 2020 due to injuries. I think there are many ways the Bills improve just by getting healthier. For example having even 1 healthy WR in the playoff game might have made a huge difference, but the fact that all 4 starting WRs were injured and limited had a big impact. Sometimes status quo is actually getting better if the team you are chasing is getting worse as KC appears to be. Sometimes making a bunch of additions via FA does not improve a team as guys struggle to come together. As I said - I will wait and pass judgement later. Right now - status quo is good.
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Yes - so you have been debated throughout the thread and almost universally told to relax and see where we are going and you counter with it is not last year. No kidding - so therefore we should expect the young players to improve and the guys that were injured early in the year to be healthy and therefore we should expect some improvement. We have the ability at this point to start 5 guys that they wanted to start last year and never got to play a snap together, but still managed to be an above average OLine with the injuries and have both RBs average over 4 YPC. Maybe seeing as those players are all getting some time together could they improve. We have a defense that put together a good 2nd half of the season as players got healthy and we are looking to build on that. We have a staff that is always looking to find ways to get better- so the expectations rise and the players and coaches self scout and adjust. Are last years Bills as good as last years KC team - based on results - No, but they were not far off and the expectations as KC has to remodel their entire OLine and WRs means that there is no reason not to expect the Bills to have gained on them. So while at the moment the Bills are pretty much status Quo the KC team is at a net negative. So yes - I think the Bills have closed the gap on the only AFC team better than them last year. I also believe the AFC east will be significantly better this year, but the Bills overall schedule will be significantly easier and so I would expect them to be around 13-3 again - the question becomes does that drive home enough wins to be the #1 seed as I think KC gets pushed harder by other teams after showing some weakness. Finally of course fans and teams have been dissecting the Bills offense and that is incumbent upon the staff to adjust, but why would you not expect the team to adjust. The offense last year was a heck of a lot different from 2019 with scheme and playcalling, but you do not think they can adjust by bringing back the players. I think the continuity allows Daboll to begin at a higher level and add more plays and more things the defenses need to figure out. This still does not even include any additional trades, FA signings, and draft picks that can all come in and improve the team. As I said - your post is fine for mid-September if we are struggling, but for an hour before FA starts - it was garbage.
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Good God - what a worthless post at this point. So the Bills that just went 13-3 and made the AFCCG and are working to retain many pieces of the roster is a bad thing? The fact that the team did not have its starting 5 offensive Linemen play 1 snap together. The fact that they did not have any preseason to adjust either the new O line or D line and had to make those adjustments on the fly. This all means that we can not get better as Allen learns even more and as Moss gets his NFL body under him and the OLine gets some time together with all 5 starters - maybe some of that will allow Daboll to be a bit different. Maybe they played a more conservative defense because that is what had worked to slow down KC prior - now TB showed a different way - do you think the Bills might be able to adapt? Do you think the Bills can better adapt as they know exactly what their team can do? Do you think the Bills might still get players in FA and the draft. And if you are going to use the draft understand they need a bit over 3 million (not the 6 million BS you spout) because of where they are drafting and the top 51 players for the cap. So that doubles what they have left with some other potential money still available. My God - I could understand if this was the middle of September and they were struggling, but with FA just starting - you should turn your fan card in and go sit in time out to think about what you said. 🤦♂️
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Available players released from other teams
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think with their money - he ends up back in NE on a big contract and then after a year or 2 they look to trade him and get younger. -
Miami trading Shaq Lawson to Texans
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
They took Shaq last year because he was one of the better DEs on the FA market and it took a player from a rival that they had knowledge of. I think they knew what type of DE that Lawson was, but they signed a bunch of LBs - like Van Noy to pressure the passer. Last year there was limited DE talent and lots of LBs. They signed a few LBs and one of the top DEs. As the Dolphins look at the upcoming FA period - they see a lot of talent at DE and almost no talent at ILB. With the cutting of Van Noy - they needed LB help and I believe much like Beane - Grier looks at what is coming up and uses that to plot a path. Therefore you acquire an ILB to fill a position of need and open up a spot so you can aggressively pursue a better DE. You moved the need from LB to DE at a time when the FA class has a bunch of DEs. I think it was less about the players and more about the positions. You now have depth at LB and can pursue talent in the draft and a hole at DE with perhaps as many as six DEs available that could improve your team. Your point about improvement is correct, but improvement for Miami is really wrapped up in QB. Does Tua develop with a few new weapons or not. If the defense can stay the same (as they had a great year last year) - then the question becomes can the offense generate more and that will be the deciding factor in improvement. -
Available players released from other teams
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I would if I had 30+ million in cap space. Other than that - I do not want to spend that kind of money on a guard. Especially from NE as those guys never seem to live up to the hype. -
Miami trading Shaq Lawson to Texans
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The problem with trying to decide a winner or loser in this trade is - I don’t think the player for player trade was the point. I think Miami recognized that the DE market was flooded with talent of guys similar or better than Shaq. Conversely the ILB FA market is very limited. Miami makes this trade to be able to go after a FA DE this year and gets an ILB that they could not find on the FA market. If Miami is able to get a top flight DE for a good contract - they win this trade. If they get shut out and get a mid tier out lower guy in the same vein as Shaq and have to over pay just like last year - then Houston did just fine. Miami paid most of the bonus money end you know what you are getting with Lawson. -
Bills re-sign Feliciano
Rochesterfan replied to Buffalo_Stampede's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don’t think this means that at all. He missed the entire first part of the year and I don’t think he was ever 100% healthy. We will see - I think they trust him and feel the line they wanted to run with last year will hopefully be 100% and ready to start the season. The 5 starters never played 1 snap together last year and with no training camp - I think they did what they could in a bad situation. -
Bills re-sign Feliciano
Rochesterfan replied to Buffalo_Stampede's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Not surprised - he wanted to come back and the team loves him. Figured it was just a matter of time. Now we will see how they go about improving the team (draft or a few guys looking for a shot at a ring). -
Zach Ertz about to be traded? [Edit: or Not]
Rochesterfan replied to Rubes's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
It is all postering - He has been going to be traded shortly now for weeks. I am not worried. Let it come to us. Do not give up picks and big salary for a guy that is not wanted on his current team. Let them cut him or let someone else take the trade - give us a better player at a lower salary. -
Miami trading Shaq Lawson to Texans
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Depends - they signed them as the best they could get last year. This year they could improve on both of them - so you move on. If it works their GM did fine - convert an over paid DE into an improved younger LB and have a ton of FA DEs to choose from on the market. Van Noy was brought in to set the attitude and knowledge - you move on once you think that is established. -
Miami trading Shaq Lawson to Texans
Rochesterfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think that it signals Miami looking at FA DEs and a lack of good LBs made this deal to get a better LB now and go after DEs later. -
I want no part of Carson unless you get him at vet min. Paying an oft injured RB 7-8 million is just stupid. He provides nothing extra that we do not have. If they are signing/drafting a RB (which I have my doubts based upon the roster) we need a speed back that can catch. Hunter Henry is the right age, but again I do not want to pay big for what has been barely above our current TE groups production. I just do not see the need to overpay for a TE producing 600 yards and 4 TDs on average - plus the injury as he has not played 16 games in 5 seasons. Again for a small price ok, but not above 3-4 million.
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Why because Seattle and Houston do not want to trade the players and the one move guaranteed to push the button even more is to require them to pay back money. My guess is both teams are going to ride this out until the point one or both guys refuse to play and there is little other options. Then they will decide what to do about the money. For now the expectations are both teams still have their starting QBs.