transplantbillsfan

The conversation has been about what Mahomes had in Kansas City was already established and Elite. Kelce was already an Elite Tight End before Mahomes started a game. You know precisely what our discussion has been, yet you pivoted claiming that "Kelce has Mahomes to thank" and then brought his 3 previous years in rather than the most recent 2--where he averaged 84 receptions, nearly 1,100 yards, 6 TDs and 9 yards per Target--because that extra year skews his numbers a little down for you, despite the fact that even adding that year in Kelce still averaged 1,000 yards and 6 TDs a year. Kelce was an Elite Tight End already and Mahomes clearly benefitted from that. As another poster said... much the same way that Diggs was already an Elite WR before he came over to Buffalo. Receivers and QBs benefitted. The point is that Mahomes has been extremely reliant on his Elite Tight End throughout his entire career and you're insinuating that Mahomes would somehow make Knox better. @HappyDays aptly brought up Kelvin Benjamin because of that... and it was a good comparison based on the silly argument you made that it was Allen who was holding Knox back somehow, yet Benjamin caught more than 10 times more passes with Allen for more than 10 times more yards. Soooo... what are you going to say next???? "Well obviously Benjamin caught fewer balls in Kansas City because there were better weapons so he didn't see the field as much"

It's a pretty apt statement considering what you said. I haven't hid from any of my dislike of Allen during the draft process, so I don't know what you think you're accomplishing. My dislike of Allen during the draft process was based on a flawed premise... essentially the same premise in terms of most of the dislike of him: Analytics. I watched very little of him (I watch very little college ball, anyway), so I was relying on analytics. But there are posters here like @GoBills808 here and guys who watch the film like Mel Kiper who really liked him. That was a scouting argument, not an analytics one. I have no problem with people bringing that thread back to the forefront to remind me of it. I was very, very wrong. And I'm very, very glad. Brevity is the soul of... someone who knows they're miserably losing an argument. Sad that you just resort to personal attacks and cherry pick the portions of an argument you want to respond to (apparently with personal attacks) rather than actually having a rational discussion. Are you capable of having a rational discussion?

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes That doesn’t mean people outside of the fan base are right. People outside of the fan base viewed Josh Allen as some form of a laughing stock for his first 2 years. This fanbase did not. Who was right?

The underlying and obvious assumption on your part in your previous post was that it's Mahomes who made Kelce great. Kelce was already great. And it was with Alex Smith at QB. Knox has been a below average Tight End. He was even a below average Tight End with an Elite QB throwing to him in 2020. Mahomes would have obviously had to find his production elsewhere... and once again, despite the fact that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been with the Chiefs and were already really good players even with Alex Smith throwing to them (Tyreek Hill had 75 receptions and nearly 1200 yards in Mahomes's redshirt year), he would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Deonte Thompson and Charles Clay as his "big 3" for weapons if he had to start in year 1 with Buffalo in 2017 (likely) or would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Charles Clay if he managed to get all of 2017 off (unlikely) in Buffalo like he did in KC. This isn't about being a homer. This is you disregarding the reality that comparing Kelce and Knox is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS!!! Haters gonna hate...

No. Now you're just plain wrong. Yes, Kelce got better statistically when Mahomes came in, but Kelce was already talked about as one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL with Alex Smith as his QB. In each of the 2 seasons before Mahomes started Kelce had over 1,000 yards and over 80 receptions. And I wonder how much you watch the Bills? Knox's biggest issue (especially in his first 2 years) is that he drops way more passes than he should. Are you trying to say that Knox wouldn't drop passes if Mahomes were his QB? Because Mahomes is just so good that he has the power to make you catch balls you would otherwise drop from inferior QBs?

Yes. He would have already had them. And maybe it's Allen winning league MVP in 2018 and the Super Bowl in 2019. Or maybe Allen and his Chiefs beat Brady and the Patriots in 2018 and win it in year 1. No it doesn't but if they made the trade Mahomes would be on a completely different team with completely different weapons and completely different coaches. Swapping Mahomes and Allen as Fairburn oddly brought up completely neglects what each player walks into. Mahomes wouldn't have a dominant (or even capable) TE like Kelce, who was 2nd in the NFL in YAC and was tied for 1st in Big plays last year with Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley last year. He'd have Knox. Kelce has been targeted by Mahomes by far more than any other player on the team and over the last 3 years has averaged 144 targets, 102 receptions, 1,327 yards and 9 TDs per season. Sure looks like Mahomes relies heavily on his Tight Ends and we don't really have any good ones in Buffalo.

I don't think anyone can be the GOAT without those Super Bowls. I still think it's Brady, then Montana, then you talk about everyone below them. Mahomes needs a minimum of 3 more to even talk about him being the GOAT. And Allen needs to start winning some and would need at least 4. In terms of the career passer rating, I think that's actually the one Allen could catch up to. I don't think Allen will catch up to total passing TDs or total passing yards for Mahomes, though.

I don't know if you caught this, but it's worth a watch: Now, I direct you to this because in it Alex Smith talks specifically about Andy Reid in terms of QB development. Smith says that most coaches don't really focus on things like mechanics for QBs. He says that when a QB throws it too high, most coaches will just say "gotta get that down." Or when you miss someone, most coaches say "you gotta hit that WR." Smith says that Reid wouldn't do that. Instead he would point out legitimate mechanical flaws in your stance and delivery in order to help you out. Now, Patrick Mahomes had this as his Head Coach for his entire rookie redshirt year as he worked through fixing his game and mechanics, which the vast majority of draft analysts in 2017 said he needed to do. What you're doing is completely dismissing the incredible benefit this was for him and completely dismissing the fact that Allen really didn't have anyone other than Jordan Palmer as someone reputable to work with on his mechanics, and that was only in the offseasons. Ken Dorsey didn't even join the team until Allen's 2nd year. Now put Allen on the Chiefs. Give him a redshirt year and Andy Reid. And put Mahomes on the Bills. It's delusional to believe Mahomes would still be Mahomes if those situations were swapped. And yeah, you're right, Mahomes has been better than Josh. That doesn't mean he will be moving forward. You're right, that's brevity. It's also a weak and neglectful argument.

Ah, so you acknowledged it's actually a rational argument... Finally! Why is this a problem? You've also neglected the EXTREMELY important factor of redshirt year behind a smart, 10+ year vet QB who was a former #1 draft pick and a QB guru developing him as his head coach. I would have expected a rise. Even a significant rise, maybe. I just don't know if it would have been the same. Allen had an AWFUL team surrounding him on offense in his rookie year. His OL was TERRIBLE! Mahomes appears to be more injury prone than Allen so far. And that's with significantly more offensive talent and a better OL. Would Mahomes have even made it through the amount of games Allen did considering even Allen got injured? Mahomes also isn't the runner Allen is. I think we can all acknowledge that. Would Mahomes have been able to even do anything in his rookie year with the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay as his weapons? You seem to think he would have, right? Have you also assumed he was drafted by Buffalo in 2017 and was developed in the same way he was in KC in 2017? That seems to be what you're assuming. Sorry. I wasn't brief. But your reference to Hamlet is inappropriate considering it was stated ironically (dramatic irony) in a situation where a character is not engaging in discourse but is instead trying to explain something he was told.

Are you trying to be witty or have a rational discussion, which involves discourse. That 51% to 49% number is just your opinion stated as concrete fact, though. You are presenting this opinion as though all must believe it, despite the fact that you've been presented with rational counterarguments. You get that, right?

It's funny that you refuse to respond to rational arguments, but choose to cherry pick phrases and sentences from larger arguments as indications that the whole argument is irrational. As for 51% vs 49%, I think any statistician would call that a statistical tie. This must be you actually conceding that your initial definitive "the correct answer is yes" was off-base. Thank you

Except it's not based on nothing. You just don't read. You're being silly. I don't mind someone saying they'd make the trade because Mahomes has been better than Josh Allen in his first 3 years and is better right now. That's what you're saying, and that's fine. But what you're also saying, which borders on arrogance, is that it's completely irrational to argue otherwise. You're arguing that the only thing you CAN consider is the past, and that's just silly. Since you're being silly, humor me with a silly exercise. Train A and train B leave a train station at exactly the same time on a parallel path and we know nothing about either's max speed or where certain checkpoints are... only the time each reaches 6 specific out of 10. Checkpoint 1: Train A (1 hour) Train B (3 hours) Checkpoint 2: Train A (2 1/2 hours) Train B (4 hours) Checkpoint 3: Train A (3 1/2 hours) Train B (5 hours) Checkpoint 4: Train A (4 1/2 hours) Train B (5 hours 45 minutes) Checkpoint 5: Train A (5 1/2 hours) Train B (6 hours 20 minutes) Checkpoint 6: Train A (6 1/2 hours) Train B (6 hours 45 minutes) Checkpoint 7: Checkpoint 8: Checkpoint 9: Final Destination: So, at this point I'm sure you've figured out that in my eyes, Patrick Mahomes is Train A and Josh Allen is Train B. Train B started waaaaAAAaaayyyy behind Train A, which clearly accelerated much more quickly and reached its top speed early, which it maintained very consistently. But train B, while behind, has been making up lost ground pretty quickly. Train A is clearly ahead of Train B right now. And maybe Train A isn't maxing out its speed, but Train B is. Or maybe Train B will need to stop soon for a lengthy refuel because it's using too much in order to run at such a high speed. We don't know those things right now, just what we have there. You're claiming I'm being irrational betting on Train B because Train A is still clearly ahead of Train B and always has been. And that makes you silly. You can't simultaneously claim that the past in terms of production for Mahomes is predictive while also saying that Allen's recent past in terms of drastic offseason improvement is fantasy. If you can't consider both, you're being silly. You can consider both and still reach the conclusion that you'd take Mahomes over Allen. I'd disagree. But at least at that point you're being honest in your consideration.

Yeah, you're right. That argument holds no water. It's also a disgusting twisting of one small part of what I said while leaving out a bunch of other important stuff: Mahomes has been the better QB, obviously. But he's benefitted from so many things that have already been talked about, including growing up with a professional athlete as a father, being recruited by D1 schools out of HS and playing legit college competition along with all the other KC stuff (Redshirt year, Tyreek Hill & Travis Kelce, excellent OL right out the gate, Alex Smith showing him the ropes, Andy Reid, being on a team that's made the playoffs consistently, etc.) in ways that Josh simply hasn't... and yet Josh, despite starting out 1 minute behind has pretty much caught up with Mahomes--or is pretty close to it--and also benefits from the added internal motivation from his hundreds of unread letters/emails to college coaches out of HS, the continued disrespect, and all those physical traits he has that Mahomes doesn't have--Josh is taller, huskier and stronger and is at least the equal in terms of arm strength and mobility. Plus, we've seen that he's now caught up (or is nearly there) in terms of accuracy, as well. Pretty much that entire paragraph is why I choose Josh on the Bills over Mahomes on the Bills. Which parts are irrational?

But herein lies the problem: This question is ALL ABOUT THE FUTURE!!! Right? This poll isn't really asking you who the better QB has been over the last 3 years or even just in 2020. It's asking you a very simple question: Do you believe Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes will be better from 2021 to 2035+???? That's the question being posed. What posters like @FireChans are doing is SOLELY looking backwards without even trying to look forward. The point is what's in front of us? Yes, their past play is obviously evidence, but the past play isn't the focus. And I almost view this as 2 runners in a marathon and one got a one minute head start. Both runners are roughly equal, but the guy who had to wait that extra minute is angry and extra motivated. Mahomes has been the better QB, obviously. But he's benefitted from so many things that have already been talked about, including growing up with a professional athlete as a father, being recruited by D1 schools out of HS and playing legit college competition along with all the other KC stuff (Redshirt year, Tyreek Hill & Travis Kelce, excellent OL right out the gate, Alex Smith showing him the ropes, Andy Reid, being on a team that's made the playoffs consistently, etc.) in ways that Josh simply hasn't... and yet Josh, despite starting out 1 minute behind has pretty much caught up with Mahomes--or is pretty close to it--and also benefits from the added internal motivation from his hundreds of unread letters/emails to college coaches out of HS, the continued disrespect, and all those physical traits he has that Mahomes doesn't have--Josh is taller, huskier and stronger and is at least the equal in terms of arm strength and mobility. Plus, we've seen that he's now caught up (or is nearly there) in terms of accuracy, as well. Do you think 2020 was a fluke year for Josh? If not, why would you not expect him to continue to improve? In the same way you're going on the past in terms of Mahomes's success, why aren't you also going on the past in terms of Josh's consistent offseason work that has contributed to drastic improvement that happened from year 1 to year 2 and then again from year 2 to year 3? It's a funny argument to me to say that Mahomes has already done X and O while completely disregarding the Y for Josh, which has been constant work and consistent improvement in his game. That's why you don't make that trade.

Chris Simms was asked on his "Unbuttoned" Top 40NFL QB Countdown preview what would happen if Mahomes and Allen were swapped last year and Allen was on the Chiefs in 2020 and Mahomes was on the Bills. He argues that Allen and the Chiefs still would have been in the Super Bowl. That discussion starts about 23 minutes in for anyone interested.

To be fair to Fairburn, there was a 2nd half to this response that I didn't post... here it was: If we take quarterback out of the question, I’d trade Dawson Knox for either George Kittle or Travis Kelce. Both tight ends would be huge upgrades. Kittle would be the better long-term play, but Kelce may be the more dominant player in the short term. Imagine the Bills’ offense with one of those players running alongside Diggs, Sanders, Beasley and Davis? That wouldn’t be fun for defensive coordinators.

I think you seriously underestimate the benefit of a redshirt year for Mahomes behind Alex Smith under the tutelage of Andy Reid and the talent already surrounding him in his first year with Hill and Kelce already rolling and a pretty stellar offensive line compared with what Buffalo had. Josh Allen had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay and an offensive line full of general junk other than a rookie Dion Dawkins.

Do you believe Mahomes would have found similar success if he were drafted by Buffalo in 2017 at #10 with Buffalo's coaching staff, talent, and the likelihood that he would have had to start at some point during his first season considering McDermott decided to start Nathan Peterman at one point? Mahomes has more accomplishments and accolades at this point. I view that as a tangential argument to the ceilings of either player.

Yes you can be a multiple time league MVP and, more importantly, multiple time Super Bowl winner.

I don't know how much this topic has been covered over the years and I'm sure this won't be the last of it, but in The Athletic's weekly mailbag Matthew Fairburn was asked the following: If you could do a player swap for any player in the NFL, who would it be and why? Rules are as follows: both players have to be starters, and the players being traded have to occupy the same position. So no WR for CB. How specific are we getting? I think we should differentiate 1 tech and 3 tech. Hopefully, that gives you a good framework. – Matt W. And here was Fairrburn's response: I don’t mean to disrespect Josh Allen, but swapping him for Patrick Mahomes seems to be the move. I would say that about every team in the NFL right now. Quarterback is the most important position in football, and Mahomes is the clear best quarterback in the league. No player would have a bigger impact on a team. I wouldn't. I guess this is just another indicator I'm too much of a homer...? The thing is that I realize that at no point in the last 3 years can you necessarily say that Josh was better. But to me Josh is still ascending and Mahomes is pretty much what he is already... which is fantastic. I also think Mahomes has benefitted from a better roster (especially the weapons around him) and better offensive coaching and development (love Daboll but Reid >>>> Daboll). I also think Allen is more physically to last in the NFL. And frankly I just think Allen's mentality/attitude is better than Mahomes. I readily acknowledge that Mahomes has been better than Allen. However, I don’t believe the Bills would be a better team over the next decade plus if we simply swapped QBs and kept everything else in place. What say you?

Josh is the type who really seems like he'll take care of himself physically and mentally. Barring a tragic career ending injury (and I shudder to even say that), he should be our QB and maintain our "Contender" status for the next decade and a half.

Who cares? He's still too low. Yes, that top 6 as a whole is almost indisputable, but Allen at 6? Are they taking multiple years? Are they projecting moving forward? I don't think anyone can say it's "accounting for the talent on the team" because both KC and Tampa Bay are uber talented on offense... probably moreso than Buffalo.

Our next POTUS?????? Ron DeSantis are you high???

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/josh-allen-throws-first-career-touchdown-pass

He has one big thing going for him that Bills fans can ALWAYS remember him fondly for as a good bit of trivia because he's the answer to the following question: Who caught Josh Allen's first Touchdown pass?