transplantbillsfan

So I just finished Wentz and put him in the original numbers. Geez he was really great for the 1st 5 games and then close to Rosen level, maybe even worse, after that point. I'm really in disbelief at how many batted/tipped balls I'm seeing from all QBs not named Allen. Is Allen really that much taller than all these other guys? We know his arm is stronger so it gives DBs less opportunity to go after it mid-flight, but it's kinda crazy the amount of tipped/batted balls I'm seeing with all these other QBs. I guess I just assumed with Wentz's comparative size and athleticism to Allen, we'd see that number closer to Allen's number.

Yes, I guess Josh has both those problems

I guess Josh maybe does have an accuracy problem

I remember that day vividly. I was leaving work because I knew the Bills weren't up yet, then I got in my car and heard the Bills had traded up to #4. As Goodell stated the pick, I was so excited because the Bills were going to pick the local UB product Khalil Mack... and then Sammy glass Watkins was announced

I think Gunner was solely referring to the apparent improved play and corresponding increased production and efficiency in year 2, not style of play.

He played High School at an unrecognizable rural school, at a JuCo and then at Wyoming devoid of talent. I'm sorry, he played his 1st year with a Center and RB drafted in the back half of the draft and a WR who made the Bears as a UDFA. But ultimately after we drafted Allen and you really go back and watch him, his low completion percentage was a combination of the talent around him and him trying to play Hero Ball with plays breaking down along with some lower body mechanical problems, which he improved on tremendously working with Palmer and will hopefully improve even more this offseason. Regardless, I don't care about how accurate he was in college because it's not relevant at this point. At this point he's pretty much as accurate as 6 other notable 1st round rookie QBs who've come into the NFL in the last 3 years, and we should all be encouraged by what he's shown, despite his completion percentage not reflecting that accuracy. I can ignore past data because it's irrelevant at this point and I thoroughly looked at what's relevant. Have you chosen to do that, yet, rather than screaming from a mountaintop, "But, but his completion percentage!!!"? Allen does need to prove it on the field. I don't know what the exact completion percentage number is he's gotta reach as a benchmark. Might be 60%. Or 62%. Or 58%. Or 64%. Part of all that is also really how far he's throwing downfield because downfield throws are lower percentage throws. And gee, guess which QB in the NFL threw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL, as reflected in having the highest Air Yards per Attempt? I'll give you a hint, he played for the Bills in 2018 at QB and it wasn't Peterman, Barkley or Anderson...

I'm now 13 games into Wentz, who's really like doing Allen's because he has pretty much twice the pass attempts in his rookie year as Allen. Just under 500 pass attempts in: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3% Interceptable Pass %: 6.6% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 82.4% I'm moving at more of a snail's pace because Wentz has so many passes, so I'm going to update the OP with these 13 games now and then I'll do it again when I'm done with Wentz, which should be this week. Who should I do next? Dak? Winston? Luck? Wilson?

Ummm... No Can you count? The first article was written November 24th of the 2017 season after Long was placed on IR after he had been dealing with an injury for a few weeks. He started the first 6 games, though (last one on 10/23) and still played a bit after that. That was what that first article referred to when it said he was the 10th best pass blocking center in the NFL. Then he was signed by the Jets, where he also got injured. I think it's quite possible this guy could be our new starting center and that's actually not a bad thing at all.

Why are people so quick to hate this signing? I think you just throw away much of his awful play due to his hand injury. Gotta hope and assume that's healed. I just don't know much about the guy and it's hard to assess OL for other teams, anyway, but when I see the rather striking nearly $28 million he signed for last year along with tidbits from his previous years like: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-washingtons-c-spencer-long-and-g-shawn-lauvao-both-placed-on-ir In terms of numbers, Long had actually been the team’s best performer in pass protection this year, and has allowed just five total pressures on his 223 pass-blocking snaps, for a pass-blocking efficiency of 98.2, the 10th best mark among centers. ... https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-c-spencer-long-expected-to-miss-the-next-two-weeks Long finished 2016 ranked 29th out of 72 qualified centers with a 69.6 overall grade. He struggled as a run blocker last year, earning a run blocking grade of just 54.0 (the 11th lowest in the league); however, he performed well in pass protection, ranking ninth with an 82.6 pass blocking grade. Long has been clean in pass protection so far this preseason but run blocking continues to be an issue, evident by his 41.7 run blocking grade against the Green Bay Packer. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/season-grades-for-the-washington-redskins-offensive-line-010817%3famp=true Spencer Long At the midseason point, I was very impressed with Spencer Long. After all, he had just come into the starting lineup in Week 3 to strengthen the team’s weakness at center. In our midseason grades, I said the following of Long: All of that rings true to the end of the season. Long has continued to play well, though he was slowed down by a concussion at the close of the season. He has earned the right to be the team’s starting center moving forward, and definitely should be a solid player moving forward. Long’s Season Grade: B This looks like a decent signing to me. Curious if he's a Guard or Center for us, but I think he's an upgrade on either Miller or Bodine. Everyone gets that we're gonna have to go for some guys like this who had down years last year but have strong starting potential, right? Can't have a pro bowler at every position.

Yes, well that's exactly the point though, right? We need perfect passes to be caught rather than lost in the Sun as Foster did, or batted high into the air and intercepted as Holmes did, or go directly through the outstretched hands of a well covered Logan Thomas in the End Zone, or... I think that 172 yards passing yards per game would have been well over 200 if our WRs caught even half of these passes ...and even with the 35 passes in there, you still don't see other blatant drops like the Holmes one in the Titans game that he dropped right into a defender's arms for an INT.

Yes, but 173 yards passing per game just won't do.

Speaking of which, how's that Fathead you have of me above your bed holding up? Let me know if you need a new picture... I know how much you so miss me when we're apart

Yeah he absolutely will. 173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term. But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.

He has an accuracy problem in the same manner all the other rookies do. Strive for 100% accuracy. That'd be wonderful. But considering Allen and all the other rookie QBs hover somewhere around 80% as far as throwing balls that can be caught, McBeane will and should be much more worried about upgrading the talent surrounding Allen to help his completion percentage go up than Allen himself putting in the work, which he started doing right after the season ended when he went out to Cali to work with Jordan Palmer again.

Yeah, Allen has work to do on his accuracy, but no more than the typical NFL rookie... and that's on all passes. I still challenge you to go do the work and watch every rookie pass. If Allen has an accuracy problem, so does every single rookie this year along with Watson last year and Wentz from 2 years ago, who had a game more awful than any individual game of Allen's accuracy wise when the Eagles played the Giants in week 9. The idea that Allen needs to take more checkdowns is absolutely true. But the numbers say Allen threw the fewest number of passes 10 yards or less? Well, to be frank, part of the problem was that our WRs and TEs sucked. They either couldn't get open or couldn't catch the damn ball. On plays like this, Allen occasionally took an unnecessary sack. But he would also gain positive yards on other plays like this with his legs. Actually he did that 40 times for 412 yards, 15 1st downs and 4 TDs. I hope our WRs upgrade massively this offseason through a combination of Foster and Say getting better and going out and drafting or acquiring a couple more who could push for a #1 or #2 role. Along with dumping Clay and getting other TEs--just about anyone else will do--if we can upgrade these weapons I think we're going to see Allen's completion percentage go up at all levels of the field and he's going to trust in them more and actually throw more of those checkdowns. We could also maybe consider massively upgrade our OL so they can protect him for longer so he can continue to throw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL since that's his greatest strength...

Well... This guy definitely is... and this guy probably is.

It does. But not as dramatically necessarily as many would think.

And also WRs not necessarily being open or immediate pressure he avoids via his athleticism. I think Allen as our leading rusher is a terrible thing. But Allen gaining 500 yards plus or minus on the ground with his legs on passing plays that break down is just fine.

That sounds more like a WR problem. These guys are supposed to be professionals... catch the damn ball. Regardless, if that's Allen's biggest problem we should all be encouraged because he actually didn't do that all that much.

Oh I personally don't think you're going to get what you're saying here Shaw. Allen just isn't the QB who takes you down with constant 3-7 yard passes the way Brady does and I don't think any OC of Allen's would be wise to have that dominate the game plan. I'm not saying Allen can't do it. I'm saying that's not his greatest strength. And you should develop gameplans to your players' strengths. This is getting away from accuracy, but Allen's version of a crackdown a lot of the time is him using his legs. And those are positive plays for positive yards. I just looked it up and Allen scrambled 40 times on the year for 412 yards with 15 1st downs, 6 of which were on 3rd down passing plays... he had 10 such 3rd down scrambles so that means he was 60% on such conversions, which is a REALLY good number for a 3rd down passer. Plus, he had 4 TDs scrambling. With all of that said, I hope Daboll completely eliminates designed runs from our offense. Allen on designed runs vs Allen on scrambles is a different beast--10.3 YPC on 40 scrambles vs 4.9 YPC on designed runs-- and again, I really think it's because a scramble is the perfect checkdown for him sometimes. But back to the accuracy thing, if he can run and use his legs wisely like in the way I just said, even a lower than 60% completion percentage doesn't doom him if he's throwing consistently down the field. Newton's MVP 15-1 Super Bowl runner up season proves that. But again, I don't think the way Newton's been handled--with mostly designed runs--is the way to go. But Allen should have the freedom to run while continuing to function with enough accuracy to be successful. And right now, he already looks like he has enough accuracy to be successful.

Yeah that's a little extreme, but I think it pretty much nails it. Allen, I doubt, will ever be above 65% completion percentage. He just throws downfield too much and the farther down the field you go, the lower percentage throws they are. But if he can complete those downfield throws with relative consistency and continue to use his legs intelligently and efficiently, his future absolutely could still be very bright.

Amen brotha... Amen

I still disagree about the legs. Allen averaged more than 7 yards on any run, but he was over 10 yards on every scramble on a passing play. Of course the coaches wouldn't want Incompletions, but Allen's legs do compensate some for them. Cam Newton wouldn't still be a starting QB if that weren't the case.

Look who's been posting incite in this thread the entire time. I'd expect nothing less from you. Now half your competition is gone. You gonna start feuding stupidly with Yolo next?