Logic

I think the two most lucrative deals we will see handed out to Bills FAs will be to Kevin Johnson and Quinton Spain. I don't think Jordan Phillips will get what he's seeking. Shaq Lawson might do alright on the open market, too, but I expect the Bills to re-sign him.

This. Take their data sets, consider them side-by-side with other data sets, and form your own conclusions. What they say is not gospel. Most fans I know that dislike PFF dislike them not for their analytics, their secret proprietary formulas, or their data, but for their OPINION pieces, which they post right alongside the data. Some feel that a data collection and analysis website shouldn't be posting opinion pieces, especially when the opinions that they posit are often not backed up by the data. Furthermore, the recent admission by Sam Monson that they sometimes deliberately post inflammatory opinions that they don't even necessarily BELIEVE just to stir the hornet's nest does nothing to help their credibility.

I'd be willing to bet that the people who complain that we never get compensatory picks are the same people who will be complaining once the Bills stop being active in free agency periods (which is what it will take to start getting comp picks). Grass is always greener on the other side. For what it's worth, I do believe that, as the years go on, Beane will be looking to start collecting comp picks. It's hard to do so during a complete tear-down and rebuild. Now that the rebuilding effort is nearing its latter stages, though, I expect less free agency activity and more comp picks in years to come.

I think the Bills are more likely to skip a WR in the 1st round entirely than they are to trade up for one.

I usually roll my eyes at the "trade down a bunch and accumulate extra picks!" suggestions. This year, I think it would be a fantastic idea. Where the Bills are sitting, at pick 22, if they could trade down a couple times and accumulate picks in the 2nd and 3rd round, they should. It looks like they're going to miss out on the top few WRs and Edge rushers any way, so they might as well get down into that 2nd and 3rd round "sweet spot" for WRs, DBs, and the last of the good edge rushers. In any case, I don't think it's an accident or coincidence that the Bills have spent so much time and effort scouting this kid. We'll see soon enough, I guess. It will be really interesting to see how he performs at the combine. A great performance could push him up into the bottom of the 1st round.

Is there a water bug available? Asking for a Buddy...

Though he wouldn't be my answer if I could only choose ONE drought era player....I get the sense that Jairus Byrd would be a stud playmaker in McDermott's scheme.

Give me Aaron Schobel in a McDermott defense, please. Edge problem solved.

I like the idea of adding Griffen or Addison, but both are 32 years old and, combined with Jerry Hughes, would still only be an answer for a season or two. At the end of the day, the Bills are going to have to add youth at the position at some point or another.

If I'm not supposed to listen to Profootballtalk's polls because they're not credible, then I'm DARN sure not going to listen to anecdotal evidence like "I have heard repeatedly from people...". No offense to you personally, but I'll take repeated polls of thousands of NFL fans on a majorly trafficked NFL website over one person's anecdotal evidence on a message board. I have yet to see a credible shred of evidence anywhere that fans are clamoring for a longer season or for more teams to make the playoffs. These moves are very clearly about money. EVERYTHING the NFL does these days is about money. That's the problem, and that's why I think that, over time, the league will destroy itself in the name of greed. Lovely. The fact that I don't want the NFL making changes to what is an already great product means I should "go live in Russia". Super. Really great analysis there. Anyway, aside from your rude and overly simplistic "analysis", here's the thing with your "profit motive" argument: My position is that while added NFL games will certainly make the NFL more money in the SHORT TERM, the long term effects of ignoring player safety, watering down the on-field product, and watering down the playoffs, will be more and more early player retirements and increased fan alienation which, in the long term, I believe will lead to a LOSS of money for the NFL. But I suppose that, because my opinion is different than yours, I ought to just move to a different country, right? Sheesh.

I've been reading a lot about Kyle Dugger the past few days. Dugger has the chance to be the first D-II prospect taken in round 1 since 1999, though he may slip to the 2nd round when it's all said and done. Most would agree that safety isn't a primary need for the Bills. However, with Poyer and Hyde entering their 30s and with neither yet having had their contracts extended, I wonder if it's more of a need than people would want to admit. Furthermore, the Bills are among the teams who have most thoroughly scouted the player in question. So below I have posted a few articles and quotes about "the gem of the 2020 draft", Kyle Dugger. To be clear, I love Hyde and Poyer, and I have no problem with the Bills extending either or both of them. That being said, Dugger would be perfect as the "Big Nickel" in McDermott's defense, assuming the Bills don't see him as a true full time safety. For as good as the Bills defense was in 2019, it didn't not create enough turnovers. In the same way that the offense needs more "touchdown makers", the defense needs more playmakers and ball-takers. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001073502/article/super-sleeper-dii-safety-kyle-dugger-squarely-on-nfls-radar At nearly 6-foot-1 and 218 pounds, he was clocked by Florence at 4.41 and 4.45 in the 40-yard dash. Had Florence asked, Dugger could also have shown him an eye-opening broad jump of 10 feet, 11 inches. Florence placed a draftable grade on him, and ever since a parade of scouting attention has blazed a rarely traveled path through Hickory. All 32 NFL clubs stopped by Lenoir-Rhyne to evaluate the potential top-100 selection this past fall, many of them more than once, and with a combination of area and higher-level scouts. By last October, nine NFL directors of college scouting had come through, along with four directors of player personnel, and one GM (Marty Hurney of the Carolina Panthers). "We've not had this kind of attention here, and I'm learning a lot myself," said Lenoir-Rhyne assistant coach Tim Foster, who also serves as the program's liaison to scouts. A number of those scouts have projected Dugger -- with a frame to easily add more weight -- as an outside linebacker who could blanket tight ends and running backs on third down. According to an AFC scout who has been through Hickory, Dugger's return skills will easily translate to the NFL, as well. "I think of him more like a Josh Cribbs-type returner," the scout said. "He'll develop into a box safety or an outside linebacker, but as a returner, I think he's special, because he's strong enough to break the first tackle, stick his foot in the ground and get upfield." Multiple NFL clubs requested Dugger for the Senior Bowl, but it was already an easy decision for executive director Jim Nagy, who considers Dugger one of the top five small-school players in the 2020 draft class. https://theathletic.com/1619483/2020/02/20/the-first-round-draft-talent-no-one-in-the-nfl-saw-coming/?redirected=1 (pay wall)? "All 32 NFL teams sent someone to Lenoir-Rhyne’s campus. Panthers general manager Marty Hurney visited. The Bills were among the teams to come through most often, sending three different high-ranking members of their scouting staff. " "...Cronic would have to coach the quarterbacks differently in practice when Dugger was on the field, because he covered more ground than a typical Division 2 defensive back." “He was a No. 4 in our kickoff (coverage), which is our dog,” Cole said. “They would try to double team him and he would destroy double teams. Not just beat them, he would destroy the double team, like destroy them to where they would triple team. They couldn’t stop him. … You could see the look on guys’ faces, like, ‘Oh shoot, I’ve got to double team him?’ And then, bow! I’ll always remember that.” "Some think he’s just a safety, others think he can play linebacker. For a team like Buffalo that uses a “big nickel” as a hybrid of a nickel corner and a linebacker, he’s a natural fit. Dugger said he feels most comfortable at safety, but will play anywhere on the field and relish the chance to show off his versatility. In a league where tight ends are becoming harder to cover, Dugger has the skill set to do that. He’s really a cool chess piece,” Nagy said. “I think (Clemson safety/linebacker) Isaiah Simmons is getting all the love as being that guy in this draft, but Kyle, he’s going to be a nice matchup piece wherever you put him. You can move this guy all around. It’s just going to take a coordinator who is willing to think outside the box a little bit and play to his strengths.” https://withthefirstpick.com/2020/02/12/kyle-dugger-gem-2020-nfl-draft/6/ "The Senior Bowl already launched Dugger’s draft stock solidly into day-two of the draft, but he may still have a further climb ahead of him. Again, Dugger is expected to test off the charts later this month when he takes on the combine in Indianapolis, Indiana. Should a team at the back end of the first round fall in love with him, Dugger could become the first division II player since 1999 to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and this writer would not bat an eye. NEXT: Pre-Combine top 10 cornerback prospects Currently with a second round grade on him, Dugger’s film grade is finalized as the third best safety in the class behind just Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit. For a division II prospect to be named with two high-profile SEC safeties is quite the accomplishment and honor; Dugger has earned every bit of recognition that he has received."

I would love to know why, good sir. I respect the research that you do about draft prospects and I respect your opinion in general. What, in your opinion, would lead to the Bills drafting Higgins above Shenault? Or if it's more your own personal opinion than what you believe the Bills would do, then what leads you to said opinion?

Yes. Majority. Profootballtalk has done 3 polls on the subject over the course of two years, and every single time, 60% or more have responded that they DON'T want the extra games. Obviously, Profootballtalk does not represent the entire football viewing public. However, those spending their free time READING about pro football -- particularly in the offseason -- are likely dedicated fans. There has been no indication that "fan satisfaction" is the reason they're making these schedule changes. It's about one thing: Money. That's it.

Its not just the two playoff games. It’s also the 17 (and eventually 18) game season. It’s the fact that the NFL is so blinded by greed that they don’t seem to care that the majority of fans don’t even WANT these changes. It’s the constant lip service to “player safety” while showing that they don’t actually give a damn about the players. Its about the NFL constantly making changes to a product that is ALREADY wildly popular and doesn’t need them — diluting the product and endangering the players — just to make an extra buck.

The NFL is really great at fixing what isn't broken. We've got the best sports league in America? Let's change a bunch of stuff even though it's not clear that the fans want it, spit in the face of player safety by adding more games per season, and devalue the regular season by adding more playoff games! Great job, guys. Well done. It's going to be a real shame watching this league destroy itself because of greed.

No one knows anything at this time of year, BUT... If both Shenault and Higgins are available at 22 and the Bills choose Higgins, I'll eat my hat.

I don't buy it. PFF said he had an excellent season.

I'm a bit late to this discussion, but... I never even CONSIDERED the idea that people might find reclining on an airplane to be impolite. I'm pretty easily irritated when it comes to flight etiquette. I will speak up against people taking off their shoes, cutting their fingernails, putting their feet up on the TV screen in the seatback, etc. I figure that, due to my being easily irritated by all manners of airplane rudeness, I'm pretty attuned/sensitive to the minutiae of airplane passenger behavior. Even with that being the case, it just hadn't really occurred to me that exercising a built-in option provided by the airline on a flight for which I paid hundreds of dollars could/would be considered rude or in poor form. Maybe it's because I take a lot of red eye flights or because I often get lower back pain on long flights and, thus, recline slightly, but...people get mad at you for reclining your seat? Really?! I suppose that a quick look behind you to ensure that the person isn't trying to do work on a laptop or something is one thing, and I guess I can get behind the idea of asking the person behind you if they mind, but again, I also don't really feel like I should have to do that. Reclining is a built in option provided BY the airline, and sitting completely upright at the angle of an airplane seat for six straight hours is torturous. One last thing: Both of the people in the viral video were being immature goons. The guy punching the seat repeatedly was DEFINITELY in the wrong and was being a childish twerp, but the lady in front of him should have notified the flight attendant rather than videotaping him with her phone. I'd say that of the two, he was MORE in the wrong, but they were both in the wrong.

I like and agree with the overall point of your post. That being said, the stuff about Kelly liking and being optimistic about Allen and tutoring him and having a relationship with him is a bit overblown, in my opinion. I seem to recall Kelly also having an open line of communication/mentorship with EJ Manuel, and saying nice things about him to the press, as well. I also attended an event held after a training camp night practice once during Losman's tenure. It was a Q&A panel with Kelly and Losman. The team handed out colorful little cards that said "Bills QBs, past and present", with side-by-side pictures of Kelly and Losman. Anyway, Jimbo was saying nice things about Losman, too. The bottom line, to me, is that Jim Kelly wants the Bills to finally find a successor and have lasting success. He's also on the Bills payroll, so the odds of him saying overtly NEGATIVE things about any Bills QB seems low. I couldn't find any links to Kelly talking about Losman, but here he is talking about EJ Manuel: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jim-kelly-supports-bills-quarterback-ej-manuel-says-he-has-it-all/ In an appearance on NFL Network's Total Access, Kelly said that he thinks Manuel "has it all." "I think that with the new offensive system Greg Roman brings from San Francisco, I think it might be something that EJ needs," Kelly said. "I hope he does it. He's a good kid. I've heard him talk to the players, I heard what type of leader he is. He has it all."

Ever do a mock draft that you just love so much you wish that the actual Bills would copy it exactly?

This is the only right answer. Beane seems to adhere to the model of having certain amounts of money set aside for each position group. Within the cornerback position group, a HUGE chunk of the allotment is about to be paid to Tre'Davious White. I find it extremely doubtful that they'd ALSO be willing to pay Slay. I expect the CB2 next year to be cheap -- a rookie or value FA signing.

.....what?

While I wish this were the case, I don't believe it is. First, you have Beane's comments about not wanting to set the market again this year, which they would DEFINITELY be doing if they signed Chris Jones. Second, they didn't draft Ed Oliver in the top 10 last year just to hand out a record setting contract to a player at the same position the very next offseason. It doesn't make any sense. IF the Bills hand out big money in free agency, I'd be willing to bet it's to an edge rusher like Ngakoue or Clowney, and even that I sort of doubt. None of this is a reflection on what I WANT to happen, because Jones is a beast and I'd love for him to be a Bill. I just don't see it happening.

Good job. I'm starting to wonder, though, if Tee Higgins is this year's "fans all project him in the 1st round, but he ends up going in the late 2nd or 3rd round" guy, a la DK Metcalf last year. Unless a tremendous value at WR falls to Buffalo at 22, I still see them taking an edge rusher or on offensive tackle. All of this could change pending free agency, of course.

Really? May I ask why you say that? I don't get that vibe AT ALL, and I expect Tre White to be the face of the Buffalo defense for the forseeable future.