Logic

Love the trade-downs. Love 'em. Points for originality, without abandoning realism. Well done.

"The Jets killed Karl!" ? I especially liked how they went into specific detail, talking about things like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins' non-catch in the end zone in 2017, passing on Deshaun Watson, Darnold with mono, etc. Larry David is a huge Jets fan. He called Mike Maccagnan before the 2018 draft to tell him to take Lamar Jackson, and MacCagnan just laughed at him, apparently.

I understand that line of thinking, but I wouldn't call it worthless. Trai Turner is a 5x Pro Bowler, so inserting him at RG would definitely upgrade the line. Feliciano played fairly well there, sure, but he's not as good as Trai Turner. Having Turner at RG and Feliciano/Long/Boettger competing at LG allows Ford to stay at tackle for the time being. Hopefully, they'd also draft or sign competition for him at that position. If and when they decide to move Ford to guard, he can compete at left guard, which was his college position. If he's as talented as everyone seems to think, he wins that job and relegates Feliciano to depth at G/C. Feliciano's contract is not untenable, even if he is relegated to backup. They need to get another tackle to compete with Ford regardless, in my opinion, but I don't see why that should preclude them from adding a top 5 guard.

Right. Except if you actually READ what I posted above, it stated that I felt it would be more prudent to TRADE AJ Green, not let him walk out the door. This way, they could bring in a blue chip WR prospect from this stacked draft class to grow alongside Burrow, instead of hanging on in vein to a 31-year-old receiver coming off of a foot injury who possibly doesn't want to be there any more. Trading Green wouldn't leave the cupboard bare, either. Tyler Boyd is a 1,000 yard receiver, and recent 1st rounder John Ross had 500 yards in 8 games before getting injured last year. But please continue to condescend to everyone.

I just don't get it for the Bengals. This guy was a good soldier for the Bengals for years. He's 31 years old and the team is clearly in rebuilding mode. Why not reward him by freeing him to pursue a team that is in the hunt for a championship? Not only that, but once the "rebuilding" writing was on the wall, they could have traded him and actually reaped some value. Going into next season, instead of a 31 year old AJ Green, they could have, say a 2nd round pick in a stacked WR draft. I just don't get it. Can't imagine Green's happy about it, either.

Yeah. Cover 1 and Chris Brown both called him a Will, and I was dubious. Then, Brandon Beane himself said the same and Lorenzo confirmed it on Twitter. In terms his size and physical profile and where/how he lined up, we all assumed he was a Sam. I'll be honest, I didn't know a defense COULD have two Wills, but I'm not going to question the GM and the player himself.

There seem to be a plethora of good linebackers available this year in free agency, and the Bills clearly need to replace Lorenzo Alexander. I hope this is the route they choose. Kyle Fackrell, Joe Schobert, Blake Martinez, Jamie Collins, Nick Kwiatkowski, Danny Trevathan, and De'vondre Campbell will all likely hit the market. Depending on what the Bills want in a 2nd Will linebacker (I always thought Alexander played SAM, but Beane corrected that notion the other day), they could go a number of different directions. Personally, I like Fackrell because he also offers value as a pass rusher on 3rd down, and De'Vondre Campbell, because he's still young and would fit in nicely as an athletic linebacker who can play the run and cover fairly well. I'm fine with a draftee, too, but with a bunch of offensive needs, not to mention corner, safety, and edge, I think they ought to pick from the above crop instead.

I've lived in Portland, Oregon for about 6 years now, and plastic grocery bags have been banned the whole time. Somehow, life goes on. Society doesn't crumble. Dog ***** doesn't go un-picked-up. It's fine. No one even talks about it. Everyone just adjusted and went on with their lives. Amazing.

Agreed. I would rather just re-sign Shaq Lawson, who is exactly what you just described, but who already has 4 years of seasoning and who we already know fits in well with the locker room. It would be completely illogical to me to let Lawson walk and then draft Epenesa. Spinning our wheels.

It’s a tie. Both from the games you’d probably expect : Watching CBS get a turkey leg specifically because Josh Allen said he always dreamed of eating one after a Turkey Day win, then watching him and Tre eat it on the field IN DALLAS...priceless. Josh’s 3rd down TD throw to Tyler Kroft in Pittsburgh. That was a big boy play in a big boy moment.

This was my first response to you. REALLY "condescending" stuff ?

Gotta love a guy who posts something on a MESSAGE BOARD, and then gets irate at and/or insults anyone who dares to disagree or post counterpoints. Perfect discourse.

Ever heard the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results"? To state that what Beane has down in TWO drafts indicates what he's going to do in this draft -- or that anyone who offers an alternative strategy that doesn't match up with what Beane has done in his two previous drafts is being unrealistic -- is an over-simplified and logically inadequate line of thinking. I'm not arguing just to argue. I'm arguing because you posted a thread positing a draft strategy, I replied positing a different strategy, you told me it stinks and backed up that claim with in illogical line of reasoning, REFUSED to read, digest, or consider my explanation for my alternative strategy, and then accused ME of being overly argumentative! If you didn't want anyone to comment on or potentially disagree with your thread, why did you even post it? What's the point of a message board if not to interact? Are only replies that AGREE with your original post allowed? Sheesh.

Yep. You got me again. Two whole drafts worth of history is TOTALLY enough to support your conclusion that Beane will never, ever trade down. Nailed it.

No, I say it because you routinely ignored everything I said throughout the thread and repeatedly replied in a way that made it clear you probably weren't even reading what I was typing. And to be fair, I believe it was YOU who told me my strategy "stinks because it's unrealistic". What's good for the goose...

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. You have clearly not understood or digested a single thing I've said. Enjoy your thread about your much more "realistic" scenario of the Bills giving up a future 1st round to trade up for a wide receiver in a stacked wide receiver draft, all because "they could win the division".

Right. Because Beane has shown himself to be SUCH a smokescreen user, and not a tell-it-to-you-straight kind of guy. I'm sure you can provide TONS of examples of this. I think you nailed it. He's just hoodwinking us all, and in reality he's gonna trade away a ton of assets (including future draft picks) and only end up picking three players this year and not have a 1st round pick next year because, hey, WE COULD WIN THE DIVISION!

Have you even bothered reading my posts above? I JUST said that this is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do. It's what I WISH he would do, not what I'm predicting he will do. Furthermore, Beane has not yet had a draft where he picked in the 20s. I'm arguing that smart teams who routinely pick in the 20s, like the aforementioned Seahawks and Patriots, often use the strategy I'm espousing. It's smart business if you find yourself in a draft where the 1st round prospects only number 15-20 and you pick later than that. Why pick someone you have ranked as a 2nd round prospect at pick 22 when you can trade down into the ACTUAL 2nd round, get more picks, and get better value? Besides, you AGAIN still seem to be missing the point when you say "Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up". The strategy I'm arguing for literally gives Beane MORE ammunition to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to target specific players. The only difference is he's trading up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds rather than the 1st round because, again, the value maybe makes more sense in those rounds. Lastly, are you just conveniently ignoring Beane's recent comments that he doesn't believe the Bills are just "a player or two away". He JUST said that. Now you're arguing that he's gonna trade up in the draft to get one impact player? I'd say that your strategy is more out of touch with where the Bills are as a team and with Beane's own recent comments than mine. If you don't believe me, go take a poll of Bills fans and analysts. Would they rather have five players in rounds two and three in this year's draft, or one impact player in round one and then not pick again until the 4th round. I'm pretty confident in what the response would be.

You're not understanding one basic concept: Trading down out of the first round doesn't mean you keep all the picks you accumulate. You can trade down and accumulate some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks, then use the later round picks you have to package WITH those picks to move around the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So you could come out of the second day of the draft with, say, 5 players. Then you'd have almost no late round picks left to use. So in this scenario, I'm arguing that the 5 players taken in rounds 2 and 3 have a BETTER chance of making the roster than just keeping your late round picks.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think he'll trade down. I just wish he would. I'm almost never a "trade down as much as you can!" guy. This year, however, due to the depth of the wide receiver class and the fact that I don't expect any 1st round worthy WRs to be left when the Bills pick, I wish they had multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. That way, they could get multiple cracks at the next tier of WRs at an area where their value makes more sense. Again: This is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do.

2019 draft: Here are some 1st round players taken after pick 20: Montez Sweat LJ Collier Jonathan Abram Jerry Tillery N'Keal Harry Now here are some 2nd round players of note: Deebo Samuel DK Metcalf Dalton Risner AJ Brown Juan Thornhill Tell me you wouldn't rather have the five players taken in round 2 than the five players taken after pick 20 in round 1. And JUST accumulating extra picks is how a rebuilding team operates. Moving back, accumulating extra picks, and then packaging those with other late round picks to move around strategically is not. The Seahawks and Patriots do this type of stuff all the time, and they've both been consistently good for years. Long story long: I disagree with your contention.

I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down? I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets. Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward. I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.

I'd honestly rather see them trade DOWN in the 1st round, possibly even out of the 1st round altogether. It seems like the Seahawks -- and other teams that routinely pick in the 20s -- do this a lot. Trade down a few times, even out of the 1st round completely, and accumulate extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. The thing is, oftentimes in the draft there are only 15-20 prospects that teams grade as legitimate 1st round value. If that's the case, there's not much difference between having pick 22 and pick 35, other than the fifth year option on contracts. If the Bills could trade down twice and accumulate an extra 2nd and a couple 3rd round picks, I'd rather do that. Two 2nds Three 3rds They could then use their later round picks and the above mentioned picks to move around and select players they target in the 2nd through 4th rounds. That, to me, is where the value of this draft lies.

Man...I picked a bad time to let my subscription to The Athletic lapse.

The one thing keeping me from thinking they're going to pay big bucks to an edge rusher is Beane saying this offseason not to expect them to be "setting the market" or spending much time in the "deep end of the pool" this free agency period. They spent big on Morse and Lotulelei, sure, but those were gaping needs on a roster that was pretty barren at the time and needed to reach the salary floor to boot. Now that they've begun to build up the core talent through the draft, and given that they have quite a few contracts either up this offseason or coming up the next couple of offseasons, I just don't see them paying the money necessary to get a big time edge rusher. And to add to that...who that's likely to hit the market even IS a big time edge rusher? I don't see the Jags letting Ngaukoue hit the market. I think the Steelers will do all they can to re-sign Dupree. Clowney looks to me like the only "big time" guy that might hit the market, and I just don't see the Bills giving him $22million/year. We shall see in three weeks, I guess.