Logic

Good thing you're not the GM. The Bills under Beane tend to only commit so much money to one position group. With Morse the highest paid center in football and Dawkins about to receive a lucrative left tackle contract, I don't anticipate the Bills ponying up enough dough in free agency to get a surefire starter at RT. It's not a matter of if the Bills have enough money OVERALL -- they do. To me, it's more a matter of how they seem to like to allocate funds. Based on the big contracts of Morse and (soon to be) Dawkins, I anticipate the Bills either going the cheap competition route (a Joe Haeg or a Daryl Williams) or the rookie route. I'd love to be wrong, too. I have no problem paying big money to offensive tackles -- particularly when your prized young QB is entering a pivotal year three campaign.

I'm hoping they sign a legitimate RT in free agency, but with the money they're about to have invested in Dawkins and Morse, that may not be likely. Instead, we may see a cheaper option brought in to compete at that spot, like a Joe Haeg. Alternately, I would be thrilled if one of the big four OTs falls to the Bills in round 1. Given the money they'll have invested on the o-line and given how Beane tends to operate with respect to not overspending on one position group, a rookie right tackle for the next five years sounds like the winning choice.

Ruggs is my number 1 choice for the Bills in the 1st round. - Game breaker, touchdown maker - Not JUST a fast guy, can run routes and has good hands - Already likes Brian Daboll and knows his playbook, could hit the ground running After likely running in the 4.3s or even 4.2s, I don't see him making it to pick 22.

I don't see how this substantially improves the team more than, say, re-signing Quinton Spain to a reasonable contract. Guard play was not the problem with the o-line last year. The only offensive line position I'd be happy to see chosen in round 1 is offensive tackle. While Cody Ford MAY be a serviceable RT, he appears to have the potential to be an All-Pro at OG. Can he play tackle? Yes, he probably can. I just don't think it's his best position. As such, why not move him to what DOES appear to be his best position and, if you're taking a 1st round o-lineman, take a tackle instead.

Fair take. I believe that SOME NFL team -- maybe not the Bills, but someone -- will take him in round two. Personally, I'm not put off by the D-II thing. Doesn't bother me. And like I said, I believe the defense needs more playmakers/ball-takers, so if they think Dugger can substantially improve their defensive production as a team, then I'm all for it. I do understand the hesitation on the part of others, though.

It seems to me like Joseph's skillset would make him a good fit at WILL linebacker in McDermott's defense. The problem, of course, is that Milano is likely to be re-signed and be a long term fixture at that spot. This coming season, then it seems likely that Joseph will play special teams and back up Matt Milano. Could he play strongside linebacker? Maybe. How the team chooses to attack that position in free agency and the draft should tell us more about how they feel on the matter.

That was a good, balanced take. Certainly much more fair and reasonable than I would have expected from a Jets fan. The thing that has me encouraged is that it sure SEEMS like the weaknesses in Allen’s game are correctable — and not fatal — flaws. Whether or not Allen can actually correct them remains to be seen. I actually think the tougher schedule next year will be a good thing. I say cut him loose, take the governor off, and let him sink or swim. Its going to be a really interesting season.

Thank you for that post. I had actually not heard of the Convergence zone. That was very educational. Perhaps Oregon and Washington are more different than I think, in terms of weather. Mea culpa. Balderdash is a fun word, I think. I'm trying to bring it back. No good?

Agreed. I just had a look at his stats, and he's basically Isaiah McKenzie. Pass.

Agreed. Case in point: In attempting to explain why they felt Baker Mayfield had a better season than Josh Allen, they pointed to the fact that Allen supposedly had more "turnover worthy" plays than Baker Mayfield. Meanwhile, Baker had more ACTUAL interceptions BY FAR! This did not seem to matter to them. Somehow, "turnover worthy plays" detracted more from Allen's season than ACTUAL turnovers detracted from Mayfield's. Sure, right, whatever you say, guys! ?

Maybe Seattle is very different than Portland, OR (where I live), but what you wrote does not reflect the reality that I experience here, weather wise. Maybe things have changed with global warming, but what you describe is like a caricature of the actual weather of the pacific northwest. What you're describing is what we jokingly swear up and down to outsiders that we have in order to keep them from moving here. On the contrary, I have found the pacific northwest to have some of the most beautiful, mild, and temperate weather that I have ever experienced. Not having a real winter helps, too. MAYBE two days of minor snowfall all winter long. This year, we had none. I find that this region is sunnier and more enjoyable and less depressing weather wise than western New York, where I grew up. Just my opinion. Alas, I can't dispute the fact that there are huge problems with addiction and suicide here. That much is true. The weather stuff, though? Poppycock and balderdash.

I think the two most lucrative deals we will see handed out to Bills FAs will be to Kevin Johnson and Quinton Spain. I don't think Jordan Phillips will get what he's seeking. Shaq Lawson might do alright on the open market, too, but I expect the Bills to re-sign him.

This. Take their data sets, consider them side-by-side with other data sets, and form your own conclusions. What they say is not gospel. Most fans I know that dislike PFF dislike them not for their analytics, their secret proprietary formulas, or their data, but for their OPINION pieces, which they post right alongside the data. Some feel that a data collection and analysis website shouldn't be posting opinion pieces, especially when the opinions that they posit are often not backed up by the data. Furthermore, the recent admission by Sam Monson that they sometimes deliberately post inflammatory opinions that they don't even necessarily BELIEVE just to stir the hornet's nest does nothing to help their credibility.

I'd be willing to bet that the people who complain that we never get compensatory picks are the same people who will be complaining once the Bills stop being active in free agency periods (which is what it will take to start getting comp picks). Grass is always greener on the other side. For what it's worth, I do believe that, as the years go on, Beane will be looking to start collecting comp picks. It's hard to do so during a complete tear-down and rebuild. Now that the rebuilding effort is nearing its latter stages, though, I expect less free agency activity and more comp picks in years to come.

I think the Bills are more likely to skip a WR in the 1st round entirely than they are to trade up for one.

I usually roll my eyes at the "trade down a bunch and accumulate extra picks!" suggestions. This year, I think it would be a fantastic idea. Where the Bills are sitting, at pick 22, if they could trade down a couple times and accumulate picks in the 2nd and 3rd round, they should. It looks like they're going to miss out on the top few WRs and Edge rushers any way, so they might as well get down into that 2nd and 3rd round "sweet spot" for WRs, DBs, and the last of the good edge rushers. In any case, I don't think it's an accident or coincidence that the Bills have spent so much time and effort scouting this kid. We'll see soon enough, I guess. It will be really interesting to see how he performs at the combine. A great performance could push him up into the bottom of the 1st round.

Is there a water bug available? Asking for a Buddy...

Though he wouldn't be my answer if I could only choose ONE drought era player....I get the sense that Jairus Byrd would be a stud playmaker in McDermott's scheme.

Give me Aaron Schobel in a McDermott defense, please. Edge problem solved.

I like the idea of adding Griffen or Addison, but both are 32 years old and, combined with Jerry Hughes, would still only be an answer for a season or two. At the end of the day, the Bills are going to have to add youth at the position at some point or another.

If I'm not supposed to listen to Profootballtalk's polls because they're not credible, then I'm DARN sure not going to listen to anecdotal evidence like "I have heard repeatedly from people...". No offense to you personally, but I'll take repeated polls of thousands of NFL fans on a majorly trafficked NFL website over one person's anecdotal evidence on a message board. I have yet to see a credible shred of evidence anywhere that fans are clamoring for a longer season or for more teams to make the playoffs. These moves are very clearly about money. EVERYTHING the NFL does these days is about money. That's the problem, and that's why I think that, over time, the league will destroy itself in the name of greed. Lovely. The fact that I don't want the NFL making changes to what is an already great product means I should "go live in Russia". Super. Really great analysis there. Anyway, aside from your rude and overly simplistic "analysis", here's the thing with your "profit motive" argument: My position is that while added NFL games will certainly make the NFL more money in the SHORT TERM, the long term effects of ignoring player safety, watering down the on-field product, and watering down the playoffs, will be more and more early player retirements and increased fan alienation which, in the long term, I believe will lead to a LOSS of money for the NFL. But I suppose that, because my opinion is different than yours, I ought to just move to a different country, right? Sheesh.

I've been reading a lot about Kyle Dugger the past few days. Dugger has the chance to be the first D-II prospect taken in round 1 since 1999, though he may slip to the 2nd round when it's all said and done. Most would agree that safety isn't a primary need for the Bills. However, with Poyer and Hyde entering their 30s and with neither yet having had their contracts extended, I wonder if it's more of a need than people would want to admit. Furthermore, the Bills are among the teams who have most thoroughly scouted the player in question. So below I have posted a few articles and quotes about "the gem of the 2020 draft", Kyle Dugger. To be clear, I love Hyde and Poyer, and I have no problem with the Bills extending either or both of them. That being said, Dugger would be perfect as the "Big Nickel" in McDermott's defense, assuming the Bills don't see him as a true full time safety. For as good as the Bills defense was in 2019, it didn't not create enough turnovers. In the same way that the offense needs more "touchdown makers", the defense needs more playmakers and ball-takers. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001073502/article/super-sleeper-dii-safety-kyle-dugger-squarely-on-nfls-radar At nearly 6-foot-1 and 218 pounds, he was clocked by Florence at 4.41 and 4.45 in the 40-yard dash. Had Florence asked, Dugger could also have shown him an eye-opening broad jump of 10 feet, 11 inches. Florence placed a draftable grade on him, and ever since a parade of scouting attention has blazed a rarely traveled path through Hickory. All 32 NFL clubs stopped by Lenoir-Rhyne to evaluate the potential top-100 selection this past fall, many of them more than once, and with a combination of area and higher-level scouts. By last October, nine NFL directors of college scouting had come through, along with four directors of player personnel, and one GM (Marty Hurney of the Carolina Panthers). "We've not had this kind of attention here, and I'm learning a lot myself," said Lenoir-Rhyne assistant coach Tim Foster, who also serves as the program's liaison to scouts. A number of those scouts have projected Dugger -- with a frame to easily add more weight -- as an outside linebacker who could blanket tight ends and running backs on third down. According to an AFC scout who has been through Hickory, Dugger's return skills will easily translate to the NFL, as well. "I think of him more like a Josh Cribbs-type returner," the scout said. "He'll develop into a box safety or an outside linebacker, but as a returner, I think he's special, because he's strong enough to break the first tackle, stick his foot in the ground and get upfield." Multiple NFL clubs requested Dugger for the Senior Bowl, but it was already an easy decision for executive director Jim Nagy, who considers Dugger one of the top five small-school players in the 2020 draft class. https://theathletic.com/1619483/2020/02/20/the-first-round-draft-talent-no-one-in-the-nfl-saw-coming/?redirected=1 (pay wall)? "All 32 NFL teams sent someone to Lenoir-Rhyne’s campus. Panthers general manager Marty Hurney visited. The Bills were among the teams to come through most often, sending three different high-ranking members of their scouting staff. " "...Cronic would have to coach the quarterbacks differently in practice when Dugger was on the field, because he covered more ground than a typical Division 2 defensive back." “He was a No. 4 in our kickoff (coverage), which is our dog,” Cole said. “They would try to double team him and he would destroy double teams. Not just beat them, he would destroy the double team, like destroy them to where they would triple team. They couldn’t stop him. … You could see the look on guys’ faces, like, ‘Oh shoot, I’ve got to double team him?’ And then, bow! I’ll always remember that.” "Some think he’s just a safety, others think he can play linebacker. For a team like Buffalo that uses a “big nickel” as a hybrid of a nickel corner and a linebacker, he’s a natural fit. Dugger said he feels most comfortable at safety, but will play anywhere on the field and relish the chance to show off his versatility. In a league where tight ends are becoming harder to cover, Dugger has the skill set to do that. He’s really a cool chess piece,” Nagy said. “I think (Clemson safety/linebacker) Isaiah Simmons is getting all the love as being that guy in this draft, but Kyle, he’s going to be a nice matchup piece wherever you put him. You can move this guy all around. It’s just going to take a coordinator who is willing to think outside the box a little bit and play to his strengths.” https://withthefirstpick.com/2020/02/12/kyle-dugger-gem-2020-nfl-draft/6/ "The Senior Bowl already launched Dugger’s draft stock solidly into day-two of the draft, but he may still have a further climb ahead of him. Again, Dugger is expected to test off the charts later this month when he takes on the combine in Indianapolis, Indiana. Should a team at the back end of the first round fall in love with him, Dugger could become the first division II player since 1999 to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and this writer would not bat an eye. NEXT: Pre-Combine top 10 cornerback prospects Currently with a second round grade on him, Dugger’s film grade is finalized as the third best safety in the class behind just Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit. For a division II prospect to be named with two high-profile SEC safeties is quite the accomplishment and honor; Dugger has earned every bit of recognition that he has received."

I would love to know why, good sir. I respect the research that you do about draft prospects and I respect your opinion in general. What, in your opinion, would lead to the Bills drafting Higgins above Shenault? Or if it's more your own personal opinion than what you believe the Bills would do, then what leads you to said opinion?

Yes. Majority. Profootballtalk has done 3 polls on the subject over the course of two years, and every single time, 60% or more have responded that they DON'T want the extra games. Obviously, Profootballtalk does not represent the entire football viewing public. However, those spending their free time READING about pro football -- particularly in the offseason -- are likely dedicated fans. There has been no indication that "fan satisfaction" is the reason they're making these schedule changes. It's about one thing: Money. That's it.

Its not just the two playoff games. It’s also the 17 (and eventually 18) game season. It’s the fact that the NFL is so blinded by greed that they don’t seem to care that the majority of fans don’t even WANT these changes. It’s the constant lip service to “player safety” while showing that they don’t actually give a damn about the players. Its about the NFL constantly making changes to a product that is ALREADY wildly popular and doesn’t need them — diluting the product and endangering the players — just to make an extra buck.