Logic

I wanted to take a look at the QB lineup the Bills will be playing, because McDermott's Bills historically do very well against average to below average (and rookie) QBs, and often somewhat poorly against upper echelon QBs. So, in order: Ben Roethlisberger Tua Tagovailoa Ryan Fitzpatrick Deshaun Watson/Tyrod Taylor Patrick Mahomes Ryan Tannehill Tua Tagovailoa Trevor Lawrence Zach Wilson Carson Wentz Jamies Winston/Taysom HIll Cam Newton/Mac Jones Tom Brady Sam Darnold Cam Newton/Mac Jones Matt Ryan Zach Wilson I count 4 very good QBs (5 if Watson plays), 2 pretty good QBs, and 10 games against average, below average, or rookie passers (11 if Tyrod plays instead of Watson). On its face, it seems like a tough schedule. Given the QBs against whom the Bills will be playing, though, I predict a final record of 12-5.

I admit to giving Tua a lot of crap on forums and social media. It's fun to rile up Dolphins fans. That being said, I also realize it's completely unfair. He was coming off of surgery and, aside from physical rehab, also had to contend with the weirdest offseason/non-offseason in recent memory. It's somewhat unreasonable to judge a rookie QB too harshly even under the best of circumstances, and it's CERTAINLY unreasonable to judge one given the circumstances through which Tua came into the league. On the other hand....Herbert had the weird offseason/non-offseason, too, and he had a pretty damned good rookie season. Sure, he didn't have rehab from surgery to contend with, but he still looked miles ahead of Tua. We'll see what this year brings. Lord knows that if a book on Josh Allen's career was written after just his rookie year, it wouldn't be a very flattering story.

Not to be a party pooper, but... Recently on Twitter, Steven Nelson replied to a post by stating that the reason he hasn't signed with any team yet is "absolutely about money". To me, that sounds like no one has offered him what he feels he's worth. I would guess the Bills, with their cap situation as it is, are near the front of the line of "not offering him what he thinks he's worth". Yes, he's gonna have to come down off his asking price if he wants to play this year, but no, I don't see the Bills being the highest bidders when the smoke clears. He seems to want decent money, and I can't imagine Buffalo out-bidding 13 other teams for his services. I hope I'm wrong, because he would make the Bills A LOT better on defense, but that's how I see it.

Same. That was my number one away game dream this year. *****.

I view it as a very conscious decision/process by McDermott. The Bills, unlike others, never went full-on youth movement. It’s a big reason why they made the playoffs in year 1 and why they have had winning seasons in 3 out of 4 years here. McDermott’s coaching staff initially leaned on older veteran assistants, but as McDermott himself gained experience, he began replacing those older assistants with young up-and-comers. It is my belief that he is doing the same thing with the roster. He depended on older veterans to help establish the culture that he envisioned in years 1 and 2, and has been steadily bringing in younger players ever since — as shown by the age ranking changes you just mentioned. As the team begins to depend on more and more drafted labor due to big contracts being given out to Allen et al, I expect this progression toward youth to continue somewhat.

Exactly right.

I’m over Zach Ertz. At this point, I’d rather they sign Jesse James or Tyler Eifert to a cheap deal. It’s clear they still believe in Knox and are gonna give him every opportunity to have a breakout year. Ertz signing here would detract from that opportunity. Im particularly intrigued by Eifert, who seems to have gotten past his injury issues (has played 31 games the past two seasons) and his 30 years old. 6’6”, could help in the red zone. Give me Knox/Eifert/Hollister or Knox/James/Hollister and I’m good. Oh...and Tommy Sweeney returning at full strength could be a nice boost, too. He had some nice moments as a rookie.

Speaking of football speed vs track speed (and doing it in a way that doesn't encourage a 20 page re-litigation of passing on Metcalf): Marquez Stevenson appears to be a great example of having football speed, as opposed to track speed. I believe he ran a 4.45 forty, which certainly isn't slow, but also doesn't match what we typically see from him on a football field. He claims he usually runs in the 4.3s, of course (don't they all). In any event, he seems to have a second gear that often sees him pulling away from the nearest defender and widening the gap until he seems to be 10-15 yards clear of everybody on the opposing team. In Stevenson's case, the 40 time and his lack of college track background do not seem to be indicative of a lack of rare speed. We'll see if this keeps up now that he's playing in a league where there are tons and tons of fast guys playing defense, too.

I don't know what's happening here, but.....I had to look at it, and now so did you.

Aside from his lack of medical expertise. Like....saying a guy's brains are scrambled eggs? Calling his concussion-induced tears "balling like a baby"? Just gross.

What an awful bunch of stuff to say. Sheesh.

I splurge on four things in life: Mattresses (you sleep on them every night, and sleep is invaluable), shoes (if you cheap out, you'll just be back at the shoe store two months later), food, and wine. Everything else....I'm a giant cheapskate.

I was thinking about posting their bit, too, but I felt like I had already copy and pasted quite a bit. I get to feeling weird about posting paywall content. Don't want to steal too much from journalists who make their living off this stuff. Suffice it to say that the execs quoted don't think Mac Jones will be seeing the field for a while, and seem to have more faith in Cam rebounding than Many Bills fans do.

Alright Rochestarians, I need pizza help. I grew up in Rochester, eating Pontillo's, Cam's, Salvatore's mostly. Haven't lived there in 16 years. I'm going home to visit the family in a month or so, and I'm sure a lot has changed in the pizza landscape over the years. Family always has their own preferences, but I'm not so sure I trust their tastebuds, those uncultured rubes. So I want to hear from you, pizza enthusiasts of Rochester: who in your opinion is slingin the best slices in Rochester these days?

Thought this article at The Athletic was pretty cool. Anonymous comments by NFL executives on the results of the draft. It has comments for every team. I'll paste a few random comments I liked, as well as some AFC East stuff of interest. If you have The Athletic, though, the whole article is worth a read. Really helps ease the draft withdrawal. https://theathletic.com/2572409/2021/05/07/justin-fields-better-than-zach-wilson-micah-parsons-potential-with-cowboys-execs-unfiltered-on-nfl-draft/ Justin Fields better than Zach Wilson? Micah Parsons’ potential with Cowboys? Execs Unfiltered on NFL Draft Mike Sando 5h ago Random comments I liked: "[undrafted] free agency started in the 5th round" [Logic's note: Guess this guy didn't think it was a very good draft class. Have heard similar comments from others]. ......... “The Raiders continue to have some of the most baffling drafts I have ever seen,” this exec said. “The guy they took at 17, (Alex) Leatherwood, is no different than them taking Clelin Ferrell (fourth in 2019) and the corner from Ohio State (Damon Arnette at 19 last year). If you have a head coach making that decision or guys who don’t know the league, you misrepresent the value.” “You can like players, but you’re not capitalizing on value when you take them above their grade,” .......... On Zaven Collins: GM Steve Keim called first-round pick Zaven Collins less of a positional projection than previous picks, notably Haasan Reddick. Execs agreed with the assessment. Keim also compared Collins to Tremaine Edmunds, the linebacker Buffalo selected in the same slot (16th) back in 2018. Execs objected — “not even close,” one of them said. .......... On Justin Fields: “I had Fields ahead of Zach Wilson and Trey Lance,” an exec said. “The body of work was certainly better. Trey Lance requires a lot of development. The key for Fields will be putting some weapons around him and featuring his mobility. The guy is a running back with the skillset to play quarterback. You get the run game going, with his ability to execute play-action and hit the deep ball, and he is very intriguing.” .......... On Trey Lance: “You can’t pick the Alabama guy, Mac Jones, and have it turn out to be Daniel Jones,” an exec said. “You have to pick the guy that looks the part and has big-time upside. Lance is starting exactly where the Buffalo guy (Josh Allen) started. High grit, high want-to, works at it, loves the game, all those things that make you feel good about him developing.” Buffalo Bills: Gregory Rousseau (30th) and Carlos Basham (61st) were the defensive ends Buffalo selected after the Colts took Kwity Paye (21st) and Dayo Odeyingbo (54th). “Kwity Paye and Dayo are significantly better than Rousseau and ‘Boogie’ Basham,” an exec said. “Rousseau is developmental. Long, lean defensive end who is not particularly physical or violent. I would rather have the Indy guys because they present more of a physical play style.” Teams looking for defensive linemen had to hurry. Buffalo, Indy, New Orleans, Baltimore and Tampa were among the 2020 playoff teams selecting defensive end types between picks 21-32. “Sean McDermott has coached linebackers, he has coached the secondary and he knows it’s so much easier to play defense when the other QB is under duress, so they go D-line early,” an exec said. “Sean also knows it’s a lot better for his own personal EKG when his quarterback stands in a facsimile of a pocket and delivers the ball on time rather than running around, so their next two picks are for the o-line.” Rousseau joins Tre’Davious White (27th in 2017), Tremaine Edmunds (16th in 2018) and Ed Oliver (9th in 2019) as defensive first-round picks for Buffalo since McDermott became coach. Quarterback Josh Allen is the only offensive first-round pick for McDermott’s Bills. “Buffalo’s picks fit the head coach,” an evaluator said. “Defensive head coach, they go defense. They already have a good scheme, they already have a good understanding of what makes for a good fit in their system. And there they go, they get two guys who the head coach clearly has a vision for — seems pretty good.” Miami Dolphins: A big debate entering the draft was whether the Dolphins were wise in trading up from 12 to 6 in a pre-draft deal with Philadelphia, not long after dropping from 3 to 12 in a deal with San Francisco. Did the Dolphins really need to regain six spots in the order to get the player they wanted? The move cost Miami a 2022 first-round pick, but the Dolphins still own an additional 2023 first-rounder from the 49ers. “You have to go through the totality of the trade,” an exec said. “They did not give up a first. They still walked away from the draft with an extra first. Did they have to trade back up weeks before the draft? No, I do not think they needed to. They would have gotten better value if they waited. But, bottom line is, they came away with four really good players in the first two rounds, and they still picked up a future one.” We now know what the tradeoffs were for Miami and Philadelphia. It’s a relatively clean theoretical comparison because both teams were intent upon selecting wide receivers with those picks. The Dolphins preferred one Alabama receiver (Jaylen Waddle) to another (DeVonta Smith) and were willing to pay a premium for the difference. That is a simple way to analyze Miami’s strategy, as the Eagles would land Smith at 10 after trading up two spots at the cost of a third-rounder. Let’s say the Dolphins were determined to land one of the draft’s top wideouts. If you were the Dolphins, would you rather lose a 2021 third-round pick to jump from 12 to 10 for Smith, or would you rather lose a 2022 first-rounder and 33 spots in the middle rounds of the current draft for the ability to land Waddle at six? That was one potential tradeoff for the Dolphins. But it could be a mirage. “A team like Miami does not sit there and say, ‘OK, let’s trade back to 12, we are good with these three receivers and whichever one falls to us, we are happy,’ ” an evaluator said. “The reality is, that high in the draft, yes, they are all good players, but teams have one guy they really like. When you have more than one guy, you have no guy and you make bad decisions. Being happy with six or seven guys in a slot works later in the draft.” There was some thought Miami positioned itself at 6 partly because there was additional upside in case Florida tight end Kyle Pitts slipped past Atlanta and Cincinnati. “They knew they were going to get a very good player at 6,” an exec said. “They know they picked up a future one. What’s wrong with that? It’s better than sitting at 12 and Pitts happens to be there at 6 or nobody lets you get up and the two players you really coveted offensively, you can’t get either one of them, but you have two future ones. Who gives a ***** then? I don’t think you can be critical of their draft at all.” At worst, the Dolphins sacrificed a future first-round pick on a 5-foot-10, 182-pound player at a position that is relatively easy to fill but also easy to misevaluate. “ Are they better off with Waddle at six, or the trade with the Bears where they get the Bears’ one next year?” an exec said. “You would have your own one, another from Chicago and another from San Francisco, plus San Francisco’s one in 2023, and if your young quarterback faltered, you’d have the ammo to be in the mix for Rodgers, Wilson, Watson or whoever else might be available.” Had the Dolphins traded back to 20 in a deal with Chicago, they would have been in Kadarius Toney territory from a wide receiver standpoint. “You take a wideout at 6, that is Julio Jones-ish,” an exec said. “They get a small-body wideout at six, and I think it’s risky. From their standpoint, it’s like, ‘Well, we went from 3 to 6 and we got X, Y and Z,’ but the price from 3 to 6 should be more than a 2023 one and whatever else they got. Is Jalen Waddle worth two ones? Maybe, but *****, if you are them, you might be able to have Julio for a two. I presume their thinking was that someone would trade in ahead of them for a QB and maybe they get Chase or Pitts.” New York Jets: Without question, this draft is going to remake and upgrade the Jets, especially on offense. That might say as much about what the organization put on the field previously as it says about the new draft choices. The Jets are the only team in the league with zero Pro Bowlers on offense over the past five seasons. “They were so bad, you could almost put the salary-cap guy out there himself and it might be an upgrade,” an exec said. It hasn’t come to that for the Jets. Quarterback Zach Wilson, guard/tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker and receiver Elijah Moore are going to play right away, and play lots. “They had a good rounds 1-4 for sure,” an exec said. “I like the fit for Wilson in that offense. He just is small. I don’t care what he measured, he is not a big-boned guy and he has missed games, and that makes me a little nervous. But his ability to throw, his arm strength and his quick release and athletic ability and all that, I mean, I see all that.” The Jets drafted Vera-Tucker after trading up from 23 to 14. The move was similar in scale and price to the 2007 trade the Jets made in climbing from 25 to 14 for cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Revis trade-up ranks among the great moves in franchise history. Landing an offensive lineman can never be as sexy, but it’s tough finding evaluators with anything negative to say about Vera-Tucker. The questions pertain mostly to where on the line he’ll be most effective. “They could have had (Christian) Darrisaw at 23, but Vera-Tucker is a cleaner prospect who is more versatile,” an exec said. “You’re trying to protect your young quarterback? Yes, I support it. And Vera-Tucker would have been gone by 23. The trade-up for Vera-Tucker cost the Jets 23, 66 and 86. They received 14 and 143 in return. The Revis trade-up cost the Jets 25, 59 and 164. They received 14 and 191 in return. “Vera-Tucker is a good pick, and Moore should be good from Ole Miss — real quick, real fast, very good hands, good run after the catch, ran in the 4.3s,” an evaluator said. “The running back from North Carolina (Michael Carter) is a good player, too.”

The thing for me with the Browns is this: they have an elite running game, but ranked 23rd in passing yards per game last season. Maybe that was just due to OBJ being on the shelf most of the year. However, until they show they can hang with the NFL's passing elite (which, amazingly, for the first time in my life, includes Buffalo), I'm not buying much stock in them. They have a great running game and are likely to have a much improved defense. Defense and running game are great and will likely win you 10+ games. It's hard for me to buy them going far in the playoffs, though, until they show they can pass the ball. It's a passing league.

"Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose..."

Wow. So the Bills brought in a 10 and a .33 from this class. ....Just trying to cover all their bases, I guess.

I’m not prepared to handle you doing anything other than making jokes or posting silly GIFs.

I respect your take. On the other hand, Brandon Beane said in his presser with regard to Rousseau's role for the Bills: "he'll start out at end, but you'll see him reduce down inside on 3rd downs".

Of course there was something like this. When 1st round caliber prospect fall down draft boards, it's almost always due to either medical concerns or character concerns. This year, with the lack of medical information teams were receiving, there were bound to be a few of these types of falls. Inevitably, when a team finally does draft them, its fans are certain that said team got the steal of the draft. Sometimes, that turns out to be the case. Rob Gronkowski slipped down draft boards due to back problems, and he had a Hall of Fame career Other times, the medical concerns follow a player into the pros. Leighton Vander Esch is a good example. Hopefully JOK is not hindered by his condition and goes on to have a good career -- except for when the Browns play the Bills. Then I hope he comes down with a recurrent severe hangnail and rides the pine out of an abundance of caution.