Logic

This post is thoroughly on brand for you. On what basis would you suggest the Bills are going to get "blown off the field" against the Patriots, considering that didn't happen in any of the past three games against them? Nevermind, I'm not really interested in hearing your answer.

Calling half the message board losers because they're finding reasons to be encouraged about erasing a 21 point deficit on the shoulders of a courageous performance from their injured warrior quarterback is a pretty weird flex, but you do you.

Thanks, Alpha. Good post. I have to say: that was the most encouraging loss I can remember in a long time. Don't get me wrong -- it hurt like hell. Losing that game -- particularly against Brady, particularly against the reigning champs, particularly because the refs blatantly affected the outcome -- was gut wrenching. But as heartbroken for our guys (and angry at the refs) as I am this morning, I'm still very encouraged. Why? A few reasons. 1.) The Bills were getting punched in the mouth the same way they were against the Colts, only this time they finally seem to have reached a point where they said "enough is enough" and started punching back. That fight, that will, that resolve, is what I've been looking for from this Bills team. It's not ideal that it took them this long to find their fight, but they seem to have found it. That second half Bills team can play with anyone in this league and can win a championship. 2.) Josh checked the last remaining box other than "win a Super Bowl": He brought them team all the way back from a big deficit. There was ZERO margin for error, and rather than compound the problems or turn the ball over carelessly as we've seen him do in the past, he played basically perfect ball down the stretch, put the team on his back, and carried them to (near) victory. Yes, I realize he didn't finish the job. But, well...even though I'm not usually a "blame the refs" guy, I am ABSOLUTELY blaming the refs in this instance. I was already convinced Allen was a legitimate franchise QB. Now I'm convinced he's destined to be a Super Bowl MVP one day. I went into halftime of the game questioning everything about this Bills team. I came out of the 4th quarter thinking they can beat any team in the league. The problem, as we have seen, is that they can also LOSE to any team in the league. But boy oh boy, if they can continue to look like that second half Bills team...they can go all the way. Then again, they could lay an egg against the Falcons or Jets and that wouldn't surprise me, either. What a weird season in Bills football.

I think he is a vastly superior run blocker and a better deep threat. The former can turn a 6 yard run into a 26 yard run. The latter can add chunk plays on offense and change the way the defense is playing your offense. Davis should be full time WR2 going forward, if you ask me. I've seen enough. The results are in. He offers more than Sanders at this point. Sanders should be splitting time with Beasley, not Davis.

The Falcons are ranked 26th in points per game. They have two threats: Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson. Beyond that, their offensive roster is barren. If their offense is explosive, then I'm shtupping Scarlett Johannson.

Ahhh yes, the age old, smug-beyond-belief "service industry shouldn't be your career!" admonishment that completely ignores the reality of 2021 America. Never gets old.

My theory is that it's because most Americans, by and large, don't actually like coffee. This is confirmed by the ungodly amounts of sugar and cream that so many people have to add to their cup just to make it palatable to them, or the "instant coffee" swill that qualifies as legitimate coffee for so many people. Have you seen the drinks most people order at Starbucks? Sheesh. To give you an idea, their signature beverage that they're pushing right now is a toasted white chocolate mocha frappuccino 🤢. Or how about a Cozy Caramel Brulee latte? So if you want to find a way to get your morning caffeine fix in a sugary, calorie-filled, frozen blended diabetes bomb that pretends to be coffee but totally isn't, Starbucks is the place for you!

I haven't seen this mentioned in this thread, but maybe I just missed it. The Bucs' starting center, Ryan Jensen, has missed two straight practices and is trending toward not playing. His backup has 21 career snaps. They could potentially move Marpet over to center, but that would put a backup in at guard. In any case....I'll take any advantage I can get. Paging Ed Oliver...

Tremaine Edmunds has been quite good for the majority of this season. He did not have a particularly good game against the Pats on Monday night. Other than that, he's been in the PLUS column far more than the MINUS column this season. We also saw how much worse off the defense was without him in the Colts game. Still, recency bias (and a host of other, less flattering considerations) lead to people on here basically ready to cut Edmunds and replace him with a street free agent. Madness.

I don't really have a horse in the "play Antonio Williams" race. I'll only say that coaches get to see players practice, and are privy to said players' knowledge of the playbook and other factors. Perhaps Williams is bad at pass blocking. Perhaps he simply doesn't look as good in practice as the backs that have been active. Perhaps neither thing is true and Williams is actually killing it in practice and the Bills are fools for not playing him. Personally, I don't feel that "running backs aren't good enough" is the main reason our running game stinks. I'd tend to look more in the direction of our offensive line personnel not being good enough, our offensive line coach needing to be replaced, and/or our offensive coordinator not putting together a very good running game. I can't help but feel that with better blocking and scheme adjustments, all three of Moss, Singletary, and Breida could be productive. Heck, all three HAVE been productive when good blocking and scheming existed in the past. Still, all of that said, I have no problem with them giving Williams a shot one of these weeks. The fact that they haven't done so is not necessarily an indictment on our front office's ability to evaluate talent, however.

Tremaine Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler at age 23. Ed Oliver is wreaking havoc lately. Taron Johnson is one of the top nickel corners in the league. Dawson Knox is tied for the most touchdown receptions among tight ends in the league this year. Spencer Brown looks like he's going to be very good at right tackle. Gabriel Davis was highly productive for a 4th round rookie and looks to be a future starter. Levi Wallace is a more than capable starter at corner who they brought in via UDFA. The Bills have made the playoffs 3 out of Beane's 4 years here and will, in all likelihood, do so again this season. They went 13-3 last year and made the AFC Title because Beane and his staff built a good roster, which involves, ya know....evaluating talent. We all see what we want to see, and you're choosing to see the negative. That's okay. I'm more of a "glass half full" kind of guy. To each their own.

Yeah. 10-7 is definitely "we need other teams to do certain things in order for us to make the playoffs" territory. 11-6 should get us in for sure. Win the three remaining "should win" games and one of TB or NE and we should be a lock. No small task, given what we've seen the past few weeks. Win the three remaining "should win games" and LOSE to both TB and NE, and we're scoreboard watching the rest of the season.

I agree that there's no need to panic if we don't beat Tampa Bay. My main point is that it's still a big game, because winning it would increase the Bills playoff chances dramatically. Using the NY Times playoff machine you mention, a win in TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 77% to 90%. That's a big increase. While 77% is still "statistically more likely than not", it's not a lead pipe lock. 90% is much closer to that. By winning in TB, the Bills avoid putting themselves in a position where they HAVE to go 4-0 or 3-1 in the remaining games to make the playoffs. It takes them from "backs up against the wall and little to no margin for error" to "a little bit of breathing room". Panic if they lose? No. Unimportant game? Also no.

Respectfully, my post had nothing to do with the "wild card vs division champs" discussion. I also listed exactly where I got my results: Fivethirtyeight.com. When you're 7-5 and currently holding the 7th and final spot in the playoffs, every game is a big game. The point is that, while the Bucs game isn't a "must win", winning it would hugely increase the odds of the Bills making the playoffs.

Somewhat true, but not entirely. While a LOSS to TB only drops the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 62%, a WIN against TB raises the Bills playoff odds from 72% to 92%, per Fivethirtyeight.com It's a big game.

Agreed. Even after everything else they've gone through this year, if the Bills had won on Monday night (and make no mistake, they SHOULD HAVE), they'd be 8-4, leading the division, and with a pretty realistic shot at the top seed in the AFC. Instead, they lost a very winnable game, in a very classic, Bills-like "stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" fashion, and in so doing, showed their lack of adaptability and creativity on offense -- a critical problem considering that we face the Bucs and Pats (two good defenses) in two of our next three games. With just that Monday night loss, Bills fans went from "we could still get the top seed!" to "are we even going to make the playoffs?". Many went from "we overcame adversity, we can still do this!" to "I'm questioning everything about this team right now". It was a huge, monumental, crushing loss. People can brush it off and say "it was just one loss, no big deal", and I understand that as a coping mechanism, but...holy hell, that was a bad and demoralizing loss.

Tom Brady is winning MVP in a runaway at this point. He'd be my current choice for MVP for both his statistical production AND for what the MVP award SHOULD mean (player most valuable to his team). Take Brady away, and that Tampa Bay roster, even as wildly talented and filled with great players as it is, wouldn't make the playoffs. Blaine Gabbert? Kyle Trask? Right. Mind you, this pains me to say, because I'd rather punch myself in the face than say anything nice about that *****.

Oh fer Chrissakes. I'm on the west coast, and thus will get the 49ers-Bengals game instead of Bills-Tampa. I get them putting it on in the area surrounding San Francisco, but do they really think the whole west coast cares about the 49ers? Blech.

This is a key point. Convert the 4th down in Tennessee and score on one of the 4th quarter red zone trips against the Pats and the Bills are likely 9-3 today, with the top seed in the AFC. Now, I get it: If my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle. Wins are wins and losses are losses. Still, this team is a few poorly executed plays away from being set up for a first round bye in the playoffs and home field throughout. Alas....

I'd rather NOT lose Frazier. Daboll, on the other hand? I would not feel sad if he found greener pastures. I think it's time for some fresh ideas on this Bills offense.

I'm usually a relentless optimist, but this matchup -- on paper -- is not great. In terms of the war in the trenches, where games are decided, I see Tampa Bay as having the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines. Linebackers? Edge goes to Tampa. Secondary? Given the lack of Tre White (which I think Brady will absolutely exploit), I'd have to say Tampa again. Their offense vs our defense? I'm not so confident that a Wallace/Jackson cornerback pairing will be particularly effective limiting a passing attack featuring Evans, Godwin, and Gronk. Leonard Fournette vs this rush defense? I have an irrational feeling that despite everything I just laid out, the Bills will play well this Sunday. It won't surprise me if they win. It also won't surprise me if they lose 38-16. Based on the specific matchups and with the way the team has played lately (and I didn't even MENTION Brady's decades-long ownership of the Bills), it's easy to me to see why Bills fans would be pessimistic.

In my opinion, the healthy guys -- Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis, Richard Sherman, and Antoine Winfield Jr -- are enough to make the secondary rather imposing. Combine it with their absolutely filthy front seven and it COULD be a long day for the Bills offense. That said, I have a weird feeling the Bills offense plays well this Sunday. I have no rational explanation for feeling that way. Just a hunch.

As far as I know, Carlton Davis will be good to go, Richard Sherman has been activated from IR and will likely play, and Jamel Dean is questionable. Should know more when today's practice report comes out.