GoBills808

Packers Steelers good game rn

Good team for sure Baker int into quadruple coverage

Niners looking solid today Lol how is this an interesting question Some decent games in this early window

Yes I understand how it's calculated Again if it was actually garbage we would expect to see a discrepancy between EPA and offensive production

My bookie never asks for my rationale he just takes my money

Lol I think Goodell like 2x what Allen did this yr

He got one last year and this year's offense is arguably better so over Think it might be like O1.5 -105/U1.5+110

This is Ben Baldwin's calculator https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

Sort of. It's derived from Expected Points, which is basically a framework for how many points a team is expected to score on a given field position relative to down/distance, clock, etc. For example drives that begin inside your own 10 actually have negative EP because in that situation it's more likely your opponent actually scores next. Expected Points Added is just the difference in your Expected Points at the beginning of the play to the end of the play.

There are issues for sure, all phases But again as far as predictive models go there is congruency between EPA and its constituent algorithms (and DVOA/dyar to a lesser extent imo) and what we see in actual terms re: the Bills I like statistics...i don't think these models can fully capture the entirety of the NFL market but predictively they tend to be very accurate

So you haven't watched the video in the OP and even if you did, wouldn't believe the data that's being presented? I think folks are way more down on the team's prospects than is necessary rn 👍👍 There's enough reasons to believe they can turn things around

How is it garbage lol, it's just more confirmation If it was garbage you'd expect a delta between offensive EPA and offensive production Instead we have Bills offense 5th in offensive points scored and 3rd in EPA over the last 5 weeks That's very consistent

Kincaid and Shakir If broncos are smart they lock up Davis w Surtain and roll safety on top of Diggs

=11th

I think thats definitely part of it Our guys don't rank very well in terms of yards before contact which is why there's some disagreement wrt oline quality The actual reasons are probably beyond my expertise😂😂 Have to agree to disagree there

For me the non-analytic part of it is least interesting tbh He is seemingly unaware of our actual offensive line quality re physical ability and misdiagnoses a bunch of our run game concepts

Could be but >1ppg is going to probably be significant I think I do not imagine his attempts contributed much to EPA being two of his missed from 50+ yards

@FireChans the thing to remember about EPA is it's a model and not necessarily an indicator I will say that models built around EPA like nflELO and similar others show remarkable accuracy in predicting say NFL spreads more accurately than standard price discover...like the majority of models (and this real life example of offense performance vs expected performance) it performs better in regression analysis

5th in offensive points scored and 18th in total points is the takeaway Bass w the entirety of his misses in the last 5games contributes I would imagine

I don't have a subscription unfortunately When does the author claim the Bills last looked like they were having fun?

How would I check out box scores w no eyes

His predecessor Rex Ryan is actually 4-2 in the postseason w Mark Sanchez at QB no less 😂😂

I've always thought that John Brown and Sanders were underrated cogs in those offenses.. different skillets obviously but both could reliably lift coverages and win downfield

in fairness to everyone they've played a shitton of NFL games the last 4 years those $40k playoff game checks probably aren't enough to keep you from feeling worn down 😂😂

it's not just on offense the whole squad looks and sounds like they need a vacation