common man, you do mock drafts. Why do you play Beane then and not now?
Point is (as you know, but are ignoring) a casual fan can do a 53 and be remarkably accurate. Why is that? Because only a handful of backup positions are up for grabs. Those casual fans don't have the luxury that Beane does. He gets to view practice and get honest to goodness real answers from the coaching staff, yet they'll get 45+ people correct.
I know you're unable to do it, but for once shout uncle.