YattaOkasan

Useful video for you as you continue to keep this fight. It really is the explosive runs where were super poor but I aint mad at that being the thing where we are weak. But outliers which explosive runs are will blow up your average. If the yard/carry data was more granular i think the median (probably still is anyway) would be a better metric to track.

This is hardly must win territory for the Rams. If you think Seattle will drop one of their games against GB or Minn (pretty reasonable), then LA still has control of their own destiny if they lose to us. They can win the rest of their games (again assuming Seattle drops one of those games) and they will win the division. It really helps that they still play each of their divisional opponents left. Those are the must win games. They could drop either game against us or the Jets and still have a great shot at the division (only needing one more Seattle loss).

Not sure what to do with all this good news. Quick give me something negative.

Definitely possible as they are only one game out of the division lead. What we did was sorta impossible. We were 6-6 chasing 8-3. Not only did we catch them we got the 2 seed!!! Pretty bonkers.

Yeah would love to see the splits with WR vs RBs (maybe its buried in there somewhere). Can look closer for yards after contact that would be interesting and agree that Henry was dragging folks. I will note that I didnt mention LBs and DL. They are involved in the run game are not the best at missed tackles. I agree i trust our secondary more to defend the best passers more than best rushing attack, but thats what they are there for. To your earlier point if we want to stop the best rushing attacks we need to control the LOS with the DL better. Baltimore was the only game I thought we definitively (and ultimately decisively) lost the LOS. At worst in other games I think we played the LOS to a draw, which with light boxes means yards.

Sorry I was focused on the playoffs as I think that was in your post. Not stacking the box does cost them plays (probably worst at number of explosive runs in the past few years) and games (Balt and Indy 2021 as great examples). But when it comes to the playoffs its that we let Mahomes play out of his mind against us (and it really is only us as his other numbers in other games are good but not great).

can't believe im saying this but i agreed with Rex on that. I wouldnt coach it anymore. Get down and dont take the contact but the slide leaves you vulnerable to nefarious actors.

Tua's 125 passer rating felt like the reason why they kept it close. Mostert and Achane were more efficient as pass catchers (90 yards on 10 targets versus 119 yards on 22 carries). I would still make stopping the pass the priority. Ravens and Lions have great rushing ability but they also have great passing efficiency. Its the passing efficiency that gets more yards and adds more points as measured by EPA. I agree the rush defense will come down to the D-line controlling the line of scrimmage. Disagree on tackling in the secondary needing to be better. Some MT% in the secondary for reference (Rapp: 1.6%, Douglas: 3.9%, Benford: 2.2%, Johnson: 0.0%!!!!!, Hamlin: 7.9% worst of starters, Lewis: 11.3%). These are tremendous numbers (Bills are currently 2nd in missed tackles with only 40% coming from secondary players). Last year they needed to do better as White, Douglas, and Hyde were all above 10% (Benford, Johnson, Rapp were all doing worse than this year too). Basically every secondary position has a lower missed tackle percent than last year with the exception of Safety Hamlin versus Poyer and Dime backer Lewis versus Rapp.

I dont know that he started his slide late (thats subjective), but some of the objective things about his slide in your post are incorrect. Lawrence was noted as down at the 45from pro football reference (the following play was 3rd and 1 from the 45 because of ridiculous offsetting penalties) indicating (as your rightly noted) he began his slide there. Thats another 2 steps by Lawrence and 2 steps by Al-Shaair so hes probably only 3 yards away (maybe less). However, none of this is meant to excuse Al-Shaair of what he did. Considering the slide started at the 45 and contact was made at the 43 thats a fair bit of time to realize the play is over. Clearly he was head hunting and he got the punishment (maybe light honestly) he earned.

One big difference though relative to previous years is that our corners are much better in coverage and we can play more middle of the field closed defenses (cover 1 and cover 3). This should let us roll a safety into the box when we need to while not really sacrificing much in the passing game. Though these defenses are weaker against the short passing game (less 2nd level defenders in Cover 3 and horizontal routes can be tough in Cover 1) which has been a sneaky problem for us this year.

DeJean gets to play behind Jalen Carter. Certain we would take that player if he were available. But I dont see DeJean as a better player than Taron though slightly bigger. I think he benefits from an otherworldly DL in front of him.

This is the best arguement so far for why its a problem. I put stats above on Passer Rating but YPC in our losses has been around 6. That could open up the pass a bit. Worth noting our worst playoff loss in '20 was the one in which we stopped the run the best (though the offense looked out matched in that game). Some of it is weird though. Hardman pops a 50 yarder on 1 carry in 21. Thats not a traditional run play. Burrow has 21 yarder in '22 not a traditional run play or what he typically does. Last year CEH and Pacheco (ended up not being a scoring drive) get explosives from traditional run

Show me a game where we lost cause of the run? What I see as common in our PO losses is inability to stop the pass (Rating by year: '23 Mahomes 131; '22 Burrow 101, '21 Mahomes 123, '20 Mahomes 127). The best evidence that our run defense is an issue in the playoffs is '22 when Burrow ONLY had a rating of 101. Meanwhile there are quite a few games you wouldve expected teams to lean on the run to beat us ('23 Steelers w/ back up QB, '22 Miami w/ back up QB, '21 Pats w/ Mac and after hurricane bowl showing were soft, '20 Balt in elements w/ LJ). If our run defense were truely a problem why did we win all these games while giving up <20 points (exception being '22 Miami where Josh went YOLO with TOs).

he has been rated as one of the top run defenders for years though. 15 TFLs this year! Below is a link to a cover 1 article preview that cites PFF stats (not grades cause yuck) as #1 at run stops as a rookie and top 10 the following year. I think hes been super productive with sacks still lagging a bit (12th out of all DL in pressures, 2nd in QB hits). Be ready for him to get $25 mil/year this offseason. Why does our run defense "suck"? I think we dont care about rushing yards between the 20's. We play nickel and never have 3 LBs on the field (unless a goaline package for a 3rd/4th and short). So yes its coaching because rushing yards between the 20's are not a priority. They stiffen up when it gets to the red zone. https://www.cover1.net/gregory-rousseau-technique/ https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/defense_advanced.htm

A bit but he had Josh as #2 in top 40 coming into the season. That turned a few heads at the time. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/news/chris-simms-2024-top-40-qb-countdown-full-rankings-and-breakdowns-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-season

Still waiting for a Wubba Lubba Dub Dub. Mack Hollins as the mad scientist had the perfect opportunity for it last night.

Sure. But don’t take taron off the field. He’s our best definsive player. Take Hamlin off. Johnson has even played deep half in a cover 2 alignment. It’s definitely on the table now that Milano is back.

Agree and my experience is that it’s full recovery with no diminished play.

This will only be his 2nd game inactive. I believe IR requires 4 GAMES so if he’s back next week or for lions that’s why you keep him off IR. Also think they have less than their usual cap for in season moves and moving a guy to IR does require using some cap

Trick question. Leave both and take a DL off. You’re only going dime if you know they’re passing. Give me groot Oliver and von in full attack mode. Then any LB as spy. Feel great we could get the QB off their spot and have plenty of coverage players

Meh on him as a stud as someone mentioned his coverage struggles. Agree ravens is when you would want to get creative with him. I would take damar off for him if you’re gonna do it and let taron take on a safety role. Not sure they do this plan though

Hoping LV does a solid too and takes care of KC (after beating the Ravens in week 2). A big Max Crosby game would be great and KC does have some trouble with TEs.

If Davis releases one of the rusher likely peels off to cover him too. I would be shocked if they dont green dog that one.

I think he gets destroyed and risks a lot of injury if he steps into bolton charging at him. When he gets cover 0 he almost always slides/fades aways from it. Stepping into a throw makes it stronger but with Josh's arm he doesnt need to so he can avoid the hit. part of why he has the longest active start streak is cause he fades away from that type of contact. Not walk into. Others have to we should not want him to.

you think he can step up into the pocket on that play? agree davis would be open but he would have to back pedal to get to him.