Sammy Watkins' Rib

This was a good thread. But one thing unsolved is there is no assigned value for TD's and turnovers. Are we considering the two equally valuable? I certainly don't think that is true. But if the only stat we have is TD:TO ratio, that basically assumes equal value between both. I much rather have my QB put up 3 TDs and 2 TO then say have my QB put up 2 TD and 1 Turnovers. A TD is worth 6 points every time. A turnover could be worth 6, 3 or 0 points for the other team. How you get to your TD:TO ratio matters IMO. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio but don't actually score many TD's ( think Tyrod Taylor for example), I don't think that is a good thing. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio and happen to lead the league in TD's since 2018, that is a much more valuable QB.

The idea makes sense to me. They are situations where you are behind the sticks more than 10 yards and take a reasonable deep shot. I don't love the OP's definition of 3rd and 5 or longer. There are better options between 3rd and 5 - 10 yards. It should be defined as behind the sticks. The INT against Washington was 3rd and 20 from Bills 40 yard line. Took a deep shot, DB made a better play than Gabe Davis and picked it off at the 19 for no gain. That's a 41 yard net punt inside the 20. Jacksonville game, Bills had 3rd and 15 from Bills 41 yard line. Deep shot to Diggs in one one coverage. Diggs gets both hands on the ball and is out muscled by the DB at the 7 yard line for no gain.. Result is equivalent to net punt of 52 yards inside the 10 yard line. The Washington one was a perfect example. When you are at 3rd and 20, every pass to move the chains is going to be deep. Even if you complete something at 15 yards and rely on 5 yards of YAC to get the first down. You are still throwing at least 15 air yards down the field. So it is a question of how deep do you want to throw it? Deep or really deep? If you are going to turn it over, I rather it be intercepted 40 yards down field over 15 or 20 yards down field.

I think you project because Josh Allen is still this teams QB. It's similar to Hill leaving KC and Kelce aging. Mahomes and KC were always still going to put up yards and points. It was just going to look different and the ball would be distributed differently. The same will be true in Buffalo. Don't know if it means one or two players explode this year and become top 10 or top 5 at their position or if it just means the ball will be spread around a lot and we have like 4 players all in that 800-1100 range. The yards are going to be there which means you project some of these skill players the Bills have to look a lot better than how they currently appear on paper.

yep. It’s what set the narrative. After week 5 it definitely was a thing and a talking point. Then the law of averages evened things out.

This is also wrong. 6 on first down and 7 on 3rd down.

The arm punt narrative popped up early in the season last year. Allen had three of them (OP for some reason left out the one against the Commanders) in the first five games of the season. They were very noticeable in a short span of games to start the season. Then there was the Hail Mary in the second jets game and the desperation fourth down INT against the Dolphins. That’s five right there that were basically non factors in the outcome of the game and field position. Not sure if that is above league average but it does seem like one or two above league average. but again, I think it was the very noticeable three arm punts in the first five games that made the term become a thing.

Counter point, you have zero shot of flipping the field with a PI on a deep shot on 3rd down if you don’t take it. Those plays are rare but just as likely as gaining a first on a punt do to a defensive penalty.

missing the arm punt from the commanders game right? That was text book arm punt. 3rd and 20 from the Bills 40. Intercepted at the Washington 19 for no gain.

Troy Franklin and Brendan Rice this year are two. So when you say you doubt Justin Shorter would have been drafted this year, I'm sorry I don't put a lot of stock into that opinion.

With all due respect you have made a lot of predictions on WR's in the draft that were far off to say the least. Not saying you are any different than all of us in that regard but that nobody knows much of anything in terms of how a draft will play out. The history of the Bills shows that they have gotten production from WR's in that early day 2 range. Shorter is behind both thus far having not gotten any action as rookie but we will see. I agree he might not make the 53 and find himself on the practice squad. But who knows.

Perhaps Justin Shorter is your answer to the day three WR's you wanted the team to draft?

I really want to see like 5 players all over 90 targets in this offense. That would be awesome. Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and Coleman I think can all get 90+ targets. Cook and Ray Ray Davis combine for 90 targets. That puts the Bills offense at 450+ targets, likely around 500 targets as a few of those players mentioned will be in the 100 - 110 target range . Allen has averaged 609 targets the last three seasons. So then we have about another 100 targets left over the remaining players on the roster.

You want to trade our best performing postseason CB?? Seriously, I'd keep Elam. This is a physical game and Elam is on a cheap contract. I could easily seeing the Bills needing him to step up again late in the season. Honestly, I think our WR room is full. We are going to future Kincaid, Knox, Cook and Ray Davis pretty heavily in the passing game IMO. Throw in Shakir, Coleman and Samuel and I don't see a lot of need for bringing in another body at WR.

This guy is the physical WR we have wanted. He seems totally comfortable being bodied up with DB's. Probably from his basketball background where separation really isn't a thing. I do wonder if he will need to adjust some of his push offs at the point of the catch. But officials aren't going to throw a flag on every one. Heck, they let Higgins get away with a massive push off in the Super Bowl a few years back.

Disagree with the #2. The goal now is to win a Super Bowl. That's because Diggs helped Allen become the QB he is today. You can't even really put a price tag on value like that. Diggs helped the Bills become relevant year after year after two decades on being non-relevant. I find some value in that as well. Agree with your point of Diggs being a dud in the playoffs for the Bills. But that alone does not make the Diggs trade one that did not workout. I think folks also don't put enough stock into the drafting of Kincaid. The most recent Super Bowl dynasties futured TE's as their #1 skill player. Coincidence? In today's game an elite TE can put you over the top. Perhaps because they are hard so rare? Elite WR's grow on trees it seems and can even be traded for. Every team can have an elite WR so having one doesn't do enough to separate a team from the rest of the pack of good teams.

I would say QB, WR, and secondary have been better over the average of the last four seasons. Those are some pretty important position groups both today and back in 2015. Many of the other groups are much closer than you give credit, IMO. Milano for example is no slouch as an all pro LB.

I don’t disagree with the larger point that the defense has greatly underachieved, particularly once it reaches the divisional round. what exactly are you supposed to do as a GM here? Blow it all up because of poor results in a small sample size of postseason games compared to great results over a much larger sample size in the regular season? The disastrous defense in the postseason has been a huge problem, no doubt. But the solution isn’t so simple. but you’re also only talking about one side of the ball here. Did the offense underachieve in the 13 second game? Even in this most recent loss to KC they scored what 24 points against what was a very good Chiefs defense? Believe the 24 points was the most the Chiefs gave up all postseason last year. i’d say the punch out to cause the touchback and save a touchdown was as big a play as any in the game. Just as big as Jones rush against Dawkins.

F- it. Just don't kick FG's. Punt or go for it every time. The heck do we have to lose at this point? Maybe the Bills will stumble upon a new strategy that becomes the in thing. I don't think I've ever trusted our kickers and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

I skipped through large parts of that but watched the last minute. Man, it's only been a few months but I have forgotten already how back and forth that game against KC was. Bills took the lead so many times only to immediately relinquish it. So depressing. Or worse, fake sliding his way along the sideline as he runs like he is trying to find the porta potty.

If I am to believe what is being sold in this thread than I would have to also know that Allen is criminally underrated. Underrated not just by the national media but by even Bills fans on TBD. Allen should be recognized as the alpha QB in today's game, even over Mahomes and perhaps by a wide margin. Let's follow the logic laid out here. 1. Allen keeps the Bills contending year after year pretty much by himself because he hasn't been given the proper roster support by Beane and McDermott. 2. Mahomes, who everyone recognizes as the clear alpha QB in today's game, is surrounded by great talent and coaching over that same four year time period. Tyreek, GOAT tight end in Kelce, GOAT offensive coach in Reid, GOAT defensive coach in Spags and top 3 defensive player in the game today in Chris Jones. Just an absolute embarrassment of riches the KC ownership and GM have provided to Mahomes. Bravo. 3. Despite the clear imbalance of riches between the two teams, Josh Allen, nearly by himself has managed to lead the Bills to the second most wins over that four year time period, trailing only the Chiefs. Josh Allen has gone a perfect 3-0 against the Chiefs and Mahomes in the last three regular season games and has played two nearly perfect playoff games against the Chiefs only to end up losing late due to circumstances largely out of his control. Literally one squib kick or one lucky bounce away from being 5-0 against the Chiefs and Mahomes in the last five contests between the two. If all of the above is true, it's pretty clear who the alpha QB in today's game is. Or, more likely, the Bills roster these last four years has not been nearly as bad as some want to believe.

okay. Maybe I am dull. What the heck is that supposed to tell us other than the Panthers had one abnormally great year? Which we already knew. The Bills worst years under Beane and McDermott were good years for the Cam Newton Panthers. The Bills should have bottomed out this last year when they were 6-6 and had one of those losing seasons like the Panthers did but instead they went on a six game winning streak and it wasn’t because Josh Allen went nuclear.

We are not nearly as good as a team that had losing a seasons in two out of four seasons while playing in one of the worst divisions in football? How do they keep winning year after year?

none of that has to do with the question asked though right? Both teams have consolation banners. Can Newton doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring. If the question is which team is built better I would go with the one that is built for sustain success over the one year wonder. now, if you want to argue that Josh Allen might be the sole reason why the bills are built for sustained success rather than being a one year wonder, then I probably agree. but regardless of the reason, the bills are obviously the better built team.

I think it’s debatable whether or not the 2015 team was better than all of the bills teams we’ve seen since 2020. What’s not debatable is that that 2015 panther team was a one year wonder whereas the team that McDermott and Beane have built here is a team that has lasted as a Super Bowl contender for four seasons and counting now. This current bills team has not made the Super Bowl like the 2015 Panthers, but they’ve also been eliminated three out of the last four years by the current Chiefs Dynasty. I’m not so certain the 2015 Panthers wouldn’t have seen a similar fate in the same circumstance. The Panthers 15 – 1 season was book ended by two losing seasons. would you rather a team that was a one year wonder and went to and loss a Super Bowl or a team that’s competed to contend for a Super Bowl every season and winning the most games of any franchise over the current four-year span with the exception of a team that’s currently in the midst of a dynasty?

Only 4.5 million? Seems like a bargain. Dude is better than Gabe. What did Gabe get? $13M? I mean Boyd is not that old right?