Sammy Watkins' Rib

Roughing the passer calls should be automatic booth reviews. They are just too big of a game changing call. From a 7-10 yard loss on a sack and loss of down to a 15 yard penalty in the other direction and automatic first down. They have the same impact of a turnover. Had the booth automatically reviewed the roughing call, I am sure it would have been overturned.

WHY??

yes, but do they have the disparities I listed in the OP? A QB that is 70 points better in passer rating at home vs. away for example? This season is setting up to have very wonky home and away splits. Allen historically has not played well @ NY Jets. Hopefully that can change tonight.

If it’s an away game for the bills, I would say half of those teams on the list are better than the bills. If it’s a home game, then it might just be ravens and chiefs.

Nah. Detroit actually has a good offense.

Let’s revisit when they are 4-5 and losers of 5 of their last 6 games heading into the final hours before the trade deadline. But if the Seahawks are instead 5-4 at the trade deadline then I don’t see him moving.

@Billl suggests DK isn’t worth it if my memory is right. Just a version of Gabe Davis that requires more targets than Davis did. I’d take a swing for DK myself but not for the bounty of draft picks that the OP suggests.

There is some of that, but I also think our offense musters more than 10 points against the Ravens if that's a Bills home game. Same thing with the Texans and only scoring 3 points in the first half. And of note, just expect the trend to continue. Seattle and NY Jets are not bad teams (well Jets D isn't bad anyway) and we play them on the road. Dolphins and Titans, not good teams and not great defenses so expect the offense to "figure things out" at home.

Could our struggles simply boil down to this offense not being able to play well on the road? It's a small sample size but thus far the home vs. road splits are staggering. Link below to home vs. away offensive splits. Sorry couldn't figure out how to embed the table. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2024_splits.htm#game_location_splits Offensive ppg home vs. away: Home 40.5 ppg (two games) Away 18ppg (three games) Josh Allen: QB Rating Home 143.2 Away 75.3 YPA Home 9.3 Away 5.8 Comp % Home 77% Away 49% As for strength of opponent. Baltimore's defense is bottom third / half of the league this year. And their passing defense in particular has been very poor. Bills should have faired much better based on weakness of Baltimore's defense. Neither the Jags or Cardinals are ranked highly in terms of defense for sure, but part of that is due to the games they played against us. Both have had some good defensive performances otherwise. I don't see these splits improving much with the upcoming four games: @ New York Jets vs. Titans @ Seatlle vs. Miami Get ready for the roller coaster of up and down offensive performances to continue. I can definitely envision big offensive production vs Titans and Miami at home. After Miami we have a home game against KC. That is a game where you would think offensive production at home would dip some. I see the Bills winning the division and getting a home wild card game where they should advance to the divisional. But I highly doubt they end up playing at home in the divisional round this year. Unless things change, be ready for a poor offensive performance in the divisional round.

I suspect part of this teams offensive struggles are playing on the road. I suspect that the home and away splits for the offense are going to be pretty drastic. if we can manage to win the division, we can cruise to the divisional round. But I don’t see this team playing at home in the divisional. Honestly, I rather play at KC over the alternative of at Baltimore or at Houston again.

I like Ty a lot. Ray Davis has shown next to nothing so far though.

I mean it was a three game sample size that the offense was rolling and WR didn't seem to be an issue. Not just "the first two weeks". We are five games in and the offense has been lights out for three games and dreadful for the last two. I'll continue to hold off on a final verdict until I see what the next two games look like. Biggest thing I have noticed different these last two games on offense vs the first three is Allen is running for his life on half his passing attempts. Fix that and I think we fine our groove again. But I am sure it's not just pass blocking but other things as well. I'm not convinced we can't find a solution. After three weeks, the highest scoring offense in the league, five consecutive TD's to start a game and our QB having the highest passer rating through 3 games the league has ever seen, yes, guilty as charged as thinking the WR room was not the canary in the coal mine it was thought to be. Let's see how the next couple of games go.

not at all but picking up 3-4 yards to get to 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 7 is not outrageous. Worst case scenario is we are at 3rd and 10 which we ended up at anyway but at least we made them burn two time outs.

I’ll repeat as well. I run not only because of the clock, but two, to set up an easier to convert third down through the air. 3rd down and medium vs. 3rd and 10. you also have the possible option of 3rd and short or picking up the first on the ground. Bills punted on that option though. picking up the first through the air is fine but let’s give ourselves an easier option than trying to pick up 10 yards on one play.

I agree but u like our chances a lot more if we can get to 3rd and 6 or 3rd and 7 after two run plays. Then get a run pass option with Allen rolling out on third down. worst case scenario we burned some clock and they only have one timeout left. the first down pass play was extreme arrogance from McD. Or stupidity. Or maybe both.

i think 12 is totally reasonable. 3 seconds per run play is the absolute minimum. Get any kind of run beyond the LOS or a push where forward progress is not immediately stopped and you are going to 4-5 seconds easily. This doesn’t even factor in the possibility of picking up the first on the ground too.

Agreed. It was an excellent punt and even though the return was like at least 10 yards the coverage was good enough. If the Texans had no timeouts. They are going for a Hail Mary or Fairbairn likely misses from 63+.

Yep. And all things considered we actually got a great punt and good coverage. If they don't pick up the extra four yards on the final play the kick is likely missed. But I will definitely take my chances on a 63 yard FG at that point.

Hail Murray wasn't a coaching blunder though I don't think. Some coaching blunders I think were 13 seconds, "12 men on the field" (Broncos) and the Pats game last year giving up a 40 yard screen pass to McCorkle. Even week 1 I think it was a coaching blunder to have Bass kick a returnable ball on the kick off. Then we just have the track record of McD's defenses being statistically dominant in the regular season and almost never showing up in the post season outside of a couple wild card games.

I think McD feared a poor punt/coverage and timeouts ultimatley not being a factor because Houston would start with the ball at our 40d yard line or even better field position. But IMO, that is the wrong mindset to have. You run on fist and second down hoping to at minimum pick up 3 yards and give yourself a chance on 3rd down to pass if that is ultimately what you want to do.

👀👀👀👀

Those Brown and Beasley days are too far gone.

Samuel going to throw a TD to Hollins? Brady in his bag of tricks again?

the way that half was playing out I don’t think it is hindsight at all.

both his deep passes were poorly thrown. Even if it hit his hands the pass was on way too pick of a straight line rope with little loft. no loft on the Kincaid throw also cost a completion. If Allen ever learns to consistently throw the deep ball he will be unstoppable.