TPS

I'm on board with the emphasis on D. I'm settling in to the idea the Bills should focus the first 3 picks on D. Tampa showed how to beat KC, and the Bills can establish an elite D with a few more pieces. My hope is they sign a good Edge rusher in FA, if it's financially feasible, so I would only go DE if the right person on their list fell. My two strategies: Without trading back. 30. S Moehrig I think he is the kind of chess piece missing for McD, that hybrid big nickel. 61. CB While D. Jackson might be an upgrade to Wallace, it's not certain. You still want an upgrade in talent there. 93. DT I want another run stuffer, and the guy I like is Togiai, though they may need to move up from 93 to get him. The alternative is similar to @NewEra strategy, trade back into the 45ish range to pick up an additional pick in the 70s. Pick 1: CB, someone like Newsome or Asante should be available here 61. S Nasirildeen also projected as that big nickel type Pick 2 from trade I'd get DT Togiai here. 93. At this point, I'd go O and select someone like TE Tremble or C Meinerz. Defense wins championships is not a cliche. Build an elite D. Yes, the Bills could use another playmaker on O, but those playmakers didn't help against Tampa's D. In fact, the reason I'd go all in on D is because we have Allen, which makes our O as good as almost any.

That's an excellent cap # for Williams in 2021.

Can't they do what Brees did?

I wouldn't expect more than a couple million--$5m is pretty drastic. I'm happy to see he took a cut though.

My current best guess of who the Bills would target is Moehrig, for that Big Nickel hybrid role.

Dammit! Now I have to run that stupid simulator another 20 times taking out RT as a priority in R1-2...

It is surprising. I don't know many people here who thought they could keep both. I'm assuming the numbers are similar to Milano's in the sense the 2021 cap # is low relative to years 2 and 3.

I've run that draft simulator quite a few times, and he tends to go in the 25 - 35+ range. Before this workout...

Yes, and my thought is just a hunch based on the rumor that started this thread, so take it with slightly more than a grain, just slightly....

I think you have it right. I think Spotrac did not properly account for the SB money--maybe taking 2020 off messed up their calculations? My understanding is the two years left of his SB get pushed into the next fiscal year, which is what OTC did, but Spotrac did not--they kept 2 in this year and one in the following. Now, I haven't stated why I think this is meaningful, and it's just a thought. Beane wasted no time dumping EJ Gaines, the only other person on the Bills to opt out of 2020 beside Star. This makes me take this rumor with a little more than a grain of salt.... While dumping Star is essentially cap neutral, it would still leave a hole to fill, though it could be why they also wanted to keep Butler? I guess we'll find out soon enough. Ps. Thanks for doing that.

This issue has been bothering me since our discussion. It's my understanding that making him a post-June cut would mean they are only on the hook this year for his guaranteed money and one year of the prorated bonus, pushing the remaining two years into next year's dead cap. I checked out "over the cap", and they show his cap hit as I was figuring. Designating him a June 1 cut, gives them $500K cap saving, with $7.1 mil dead cap this year and $5.2 mil next year: https://overthecap.com/player/star-lotulelei/2282/ I assum this is the correct reading of it. Again, I'm not 100%, but I thought that's how it worked.

Given they went after Watt aggressively, I think it's pretty clear they want to upgrade. It will be interesting to see what they do with Addison? Keep around until they have someone, or jettison him first?

Now I have to do another 20 runs on that dam simulator under this new scenario...

Wouldn't it move $5.2 mil? He's signed until 2023, so the bonus money from 2022 and 23 ($2.6 mil each year) would be moved to next year. That's my understanding of how the June 1 cut works, but I'm not certain....?

So I think you're saying designating him a post-June cut saves them a little money this year, rather than being a significant hit on their cap?

Addison was not worth the contract. I'll be disappointed if Beane doesn't make some type of move with Addison that saves $$...

He does provide more value now that he has experience at both 1 and 3 techs. It'll be interesting to see if they can get Star to take a cut...?

The Cover 1 video posted here also has Leslie Frazier saying it on camera (from one of his weekly DC interviews).

No, you weren't the only one.

No disagreement. It shows potentially what the Bills could do to open up cap space, but doesn't mean they will.

There are a lot of other threads here where people suggest that Feliciano will be brought back to play C. Morse has the concussion issues as well. If the Bills go this route, I could see them designating Morse as a June 1 cut, which saves another $2.75 mil. I think Addison would be good candidate here as well, saving another $2 mil. All in all, those moves listed in the OP create over $60 mil in cap space.

This works only if you have more than one year left on your contract, which allows you to spread the converted value over more than one year. He's only got one year left, so there's no spreading a bonus. It'll be interesting to see what is done in this case...?

My condolences. It's never easy, expected or not.

That would be ironic. There's no way they can do both, and it's clear who the better player is...

The DT I've been reading a bit more on is Togiai from The OSU. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tommy-togiai-nfl-draft-player-profile-ohio-state-running-back/