TPS

*** Update: The Athletic came out with their consensus big board of the top 300 prospects using over 50 ranking sites. I added that comparison on the last page. Turns out my sample was a good picture of their ranking. I have a link to their big board on that update. Wanting to avoid a tedious chore, I decided to play around with the prospect rankings and did a "consensus" average using 7 publicly available rankings: Jeremiah, Brandt, Brugler, CBS, NFL.com, Sporting News, and The Draft Network. I make no claim about how good or bad these sources are, and given there is so much variability, I decided to drop the worst ranking for each prospect, then calculated their average ranking. If there was a tie, the prospect with the lower standard deviation (not shown) is ranked ahead of the other. Some comments based on the outcome: 1. The obvious: there is a consensus #1. 2. There appears to be a consensus top 12; then a consensus among the 13 - 21 group; and also among the remaining top 22 - 31. My meaning here is that there is a jump or gap in the average ranking values greater than 2.5. For example, moving from Surtain (11) to Vera-Tucker (13.8), the difference is 2.8; going from Ojulari (20.8) to Ettiene (23.2) the gap is 2.4; and while the gap between Jones and Newsome is also 2.4, there were no other prospects who averaged close to 30 (Mayfield was next at 33.2). 3. Prospects who seem to be the most difficult to rank, as measured by the standard deviation (in parentheses) of their best 6 rankings: #14 Farley (7.8); #17 Paye (5.6); #19 Phillips (5.5); #22 Ettiene (7.8); #24 Moehrig (9.3); #25 Rousseau (10.2); #26 Barmore (9.7); #27 Oweh (6.7); #30 Jones (6.7); and #31 Newsome (5.9). What sticks out here are the edge rushers, all of which have high standard deviations (Ojulari's was the lowest at 4.5). I'd say these #s suggest there is no consensus on who the top edge rusher is between Paye, Phillips, and maybe Ojulari. 4. What might this mean for the Bills? I think it's safe to say the first 21 prospects will be gone, and you can throw in QB Jones for 22. If anyone drops out of the top 22, it would be Farley, given his standard deviation of almost 8 (the high variability is probably due to his back surgery). It would seem the only edge rushers who might be there at 30 are Rousseau and Oweh (Ossai wasn't close to making the top 30). I don't think the Bills would select Barmore or Toney, and I don't think that Farley will fall that far. I also expect Newsome will go before 30. So, my guess is one of the following players will be there for the Bills: Oweh, Rousseau, Moehrig, Collins, and possible Ettiene. My personal choice here would be, in order, Oweh, Moehrig, then maybe Ettiene. However, a trade back might be the optimal decision, especially if Oweh is gone. 5. Finally, of the sources I used, The Sporting News was closest to my consensus average ranking, then Brugler (I took the difference between my rank and where they ranked the prospect, then summed up the differences for all 31 players). The farthest off from this consensus ranking was Brandt. If anything, this little exercise has made me less certain about who the Bills should take at 30. (Sorry, I tried several ways to increase the font, but none worked) [Edit: if the viewer clicks on the image, a large version appears] Can't seem to delete the extra images. [Edit: done. scroll down to "uploaded images", click on the "trash can" for the extras]

I think they'll try to find their big nickel (S) in the draft and add a CB.

Good question! This year is really tough for me, given their draft position and the drop off in talent after about 20. In the simulator, I always took CB Newsome if he was there. He has moved up the rankings to where he's gone by pick 30 now (by the way, kudos to @GunnerBill as he was high on Newsome from the get-go). The Bills have a lot of areas where a stud pick could help. I'd be okay with Harris, a WR who falls (Bateman?), an Edge, and a CB. Then there's someone like JOK, who I voted for in the TSW mock. The best move might even be to move back and pick up another pick in the first 3 rounds. That said, I would really like to see the Bills pick either Dickerson or Meinherz as a the heir to Morse. Too many desires and not enough picks...

Looks like there's been a lot of movement in their rankings. Rousseau, for example, is now ranked at 34, Newsome at 20, and Farley at 31. Just noticed Jamin Davis made a big move too, into R1.

I'm sure this was posted somewhere, but thought it would be appropriate here too. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/2021-nfl-draft-notre-dame-113028382.html

The good thing is, if Beane says Moore, and whoever takes the pick to the officials writes down Elijah, it won't be a mistake. I still wonder if Buddy meant T-Y instead of T-J in 2012...

There's the vet OG. Next a S.

Yeah, I'd say they add another S and OG at least.

If you do a search using "dyami brown" you will find quite a few thoughts and comments about him.

Seems pretty straight-forward. The Bills have their starting OTs, they want veteran competition for the swing OT, but they don't have much $$ to spend; and they will most likely take an OT in the draft, but in case it's in R5 or later, they at least have this vet in the mix.

In the 2021 NFL draft, the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles select elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi. While Staley prefers a CB, Moore provides a great option in the slot to take the heat of the outside guys, especially with an aging Cook in the TE kitchen. Sorry, can someone notify next pick please

Crap! I knew I was going to get caught in the middle of my golf round. Had a couple ideas beforehand, so I’ll try to get it in at the turn

He was picked at 25. @Watkins101

I swear, whoever runs this simulator has it in for Bills' fans. They keep trying to piss me off by having either the Pats or the Bucs make ludicrous trade offers. Sure, it's only two spots, but a ONE POINT 7th to move up from 32 to 30? C'mon Man!

I really don't like the fact that the Dolphins have 4 picks in the top 50. Haarrrumph!

At least up Until his first concussion in training camp.

Yeah, he really got himself on the radar after the Senior Bowl (I believe it was).

Wow! Two guys who have really shot up the rankings: Jamin Davis and Quinn Meinerz.

McD would be salivating to finally get his Big Nickel.

As mentioned above, LB JOK too

Ain't that the truth! As for the simulator, after they made the 49ers trade to #3, it took me 3 runs before they drafted a QB there. I'm still addicted to it anyway.

This is where I'm at as well. In my latest iterations of the simulator, if Newsome is there, I grab him; if not, I trade back (unless an edge falls, or sometimes I'll take Moehrig). This is why, for me, I think it's going to be the most interesting Bills draft in Beane's tenure.

My inclination was OL, but I think a defensive guru like Staley would've been thrilled to pick his CB1 there.

The Eagles have made new Coach Brandon Staley's decision for him by taking Farley. Deep down, he knows he has to protect his franchise QB, especially with guys behind him named Chase and Sticks if he goes down. So, with the lucky 13th selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, the San Diego Chargers of LA select: Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern. While the Chargers also liked Vera-Tucker here, they went with Slater who is slated to start at G, but will slide to the blind side quick if a guy named Pipkin isn't up to the task. @CNYfan and the Minnesota Vikings are on the clock.

Yes, fully agree on the EWoods model, and didn't mean to imply he'd start right away. However, taking a C, though, would suggest they are taking the long view, and not going all-in to can get to The Game this year. I actually favor this approach, and a lot of my mock drafting on the simulator does some trading back to pick up at least a R2 as ammo to move up in 2022 for that edge rusher.