The Frankish Reich

Holy crap, Ohtani is good. 100 mph fastballs and an absolutely sick slider to get Trout swinging. Could MLB please find a way to play this tournament in the summer. I mean, it's every 3 years and it is absolutely the best baseball - even in spring training - that I've seen in years. Japan sent its best pitchers. We didn't. And that was the difference. USA batting order is probably the best ever assembled in the game of baseball, but it still wasn't enough.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastman_memos scroll down to the summary of Eastman’s 6-point plan. The rioters caused delay. No one cares about them. Trump himself was embarrassed by their “low class” appearance. He was using them. And but for Mike Pence (a religious man who apparently took his oath seriously; imagine that) refusing to do Trump’s bidding, we would have had a true constitutional crisis with Trump illegitimately declared President. It came way too close to succeeding.

That’s the straw man argument. Of course these fools weren’t going to occupy the Capitol, install Trump, and then commandeer our armed forces to enforce the coup. The Plan was more subtle. More cynically clever. Delay the certification of the election. Intimidate Mike Pence into rejecting the certified results. Give time for corrupt fake electoral slates to be certified. Throw the “no majority of electoral votes” election to the House. Let those Republican controlled state delegations vote for Trump. A coup with the veneer of legality, helped along by a mob slowing down the operation of the proper process. Read Eastman’s memo. It’s all right there.

I get that idea. And I hope it works. The counter is, of course, “why are the Bills acquiring a bunch of undersized RBs (slash WRs) that compel them to bring in a bigger back because they have no confidence that the little guys can run between the tackles?” But having already embarked on that course, each subsequent move is already dictated.

Disagree with the first part: Cook and Hines can’t motor their way through tacklers like Singletary. They are not similar other than being “not classic power backs.” Agree with the second part, and that’s what they have to be hoping for here. A classic power back. I’m just skeptical that they found one who’ll be a significant upgrade over Motor.

I agree with you. But I think you agree with me too—they are changing it up a bit mostly for the sake of not standing pat. Again, not a big change here, but overall I’ll take Singletary as the better football player.

I don’t think we know for sure, but it seems that everyone is expecting the 2 contracts to be pretty similar.

Well, in his rookie season a Tom Brady led offense saw him sitting in favor of Sony Michel (3.7 YPC) and James White (3.9)

So … to summarize: - the Bills brain trust drafted Singletary in 2019 while Harris was still on the board - Singletary’s performance so far has ratified that judgement. He has been superior to that of Harris, both in terms of health (a lot) and productivity (a little) - 4 years later the same Bills brain trust changes its collective mind, and signs Harris while letting Singletary walk. I’m not terribly worked up about this, but isn’t this just a move for the sake of making a move?

Another Classic game in the WBC - walk-off Japan win over Mexico. If you watch one baseball game before October, it really ought to be USA-Japan tomorrow night. Next time the WBC rolls around I am definitely attending in person.

The timing would be ideal in mid season instead of the All Star break. Let’s face it, that’s what this is: the real All Star tournament, but weirdly held in the middle of spring training.

A little legal analysis of the possible criminal charges, starting with Stormy Daniels: - first, the facts: the claim would be that Trump fraudulently characterized as "legal fees" a hush money payment he made through old lawyer Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels. There doesn't seem to be any dispute that he did this. The new lawyer - Joe Tacopino - is out there saying that Trump was told by Cohen that this payment was actually for some kind of (unspecified) legal fee, and that Trump therefore can't be held responsible for following his lawyer's advice. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-lawyer-puts-forward-stormy-daniels-hush-money-defense-s-not-crim-rcna75082 Is this a good charge? Well, it depends. We already know Cohen has done a 180 and is now ready, willing, and able to thrown Trump under the bus for any and everything they did. So Cohen the witness will say "he knew damn well this was not for my legal fees; I was just the intermediary redirecting the money to Stormy Daniels" (To have some kind of plausible deniability ... to Melania? To the public in case the scandal came out? Because, like his CFO guy Weisselberg, he's just a cheap ass trying to avoid a bit more taxation while paying off hookers? Who knows.) It probably wouldn't be a crime if he'd used his own personal money, but he seems to have used the Trump Company money and (you guessed it) treated it as a legitimate business expense. They don't seem inclined to argue that, so the defense relies on impugning the credibility of Cohen. And he's a pretty easy target ("you did this as part of some kind of cooperation agreement, right? You told him this was a kosher legal expense, right?), but the best witness to rebut Cohen is Trump. And there's no way he's testifying in his own defense. That would be the kind of field day any prosecutor would love. (It doesn't help Trump here that he still officially denies paying a porno actor for sex, which is, well, exactly what he did.) So yeah, it's a good prosecution. By which I mean: the legal theory is sound; the witness is there; there's a good chance of getting a conviction. But ... Should the DA bring such a prosecution? I'd say no. It's not a particularly important issue, and there's no underlying greater purpose (other than exposing the general sleaziness of Trump and to further signal the DA's fundamental dislike of him). For example: if Stormy were plausibly claiming that he sexually harassed her and the bogus payoff was the easiest charge they could bring, there'd be a strong public purpose in doing so. I don't see that here, and it could certainly backfire: Trump could be acquitted, he could benefit from playing the victim card again, etc. After all, his supporters view his scumbaggery as a feature, not as a bug.

USA-Cuba tonight. Winner gets the winner of tomorrow's Mexico-Japan game. Yesterday's USA-Venezuela was a fantastic game. Back and forth, and then former Red Sox/now Rockies close Daniel Bard almost blew it all by himself as the yips that almost ended his career with the Red Sox came back. (Is it a coincidence that this is the most meaningful - actually ONLY meaningful game he's played in since his comeback?) Broke Jose Altuve's thumb with a wild fastball. But then Trea Turner launched a grand slam and USA moves on. Electric environment in Miami, where fans apparently care about baseball, just not about the Marlins. Seriously excellent baseball being played, and as I mentioned before ... this means a lot to fans in most of the baseball-playing world. Japan-S. Korea broke some kind off all time viewing record in those parts of the world. Watch it! Leave the bogus March Madness behind.

Exuberance.

I hope you're right. And I hope TBD is there when it happens. Because I'll make a friendly wager. We win the Super Bowl. What's the over/under on when the first "Can We Repeat" or "Can We Be the Next Dynasty" topic is posted? I say 12 hours.

Couldn't happen to a nicer hedge fund manager. (too bad for Edwin though)

Those were some good edibles. Actually, for some obscure reason I don't understand, it was the infinitesimal -- not infinity -- that quite literally scared the bejesus out of the powers that be. https://www.npr.org/2014/04/20/303716795/far-from-infinitesimal-a-mathematical-paradoxs-role-in-history "Geometry is orderly. It is absolutely certain. And once you get results in geometry, nobody can argue with you," Alexander says. "Everything is absolutely provable. No sane person can ever dispute something like the Pythagorean theorem." That orderliness had captured the attention of the Jesuits, who had been trying to cope with the crisis of the Reformation. "If we could have theology like that," Alexander explains, "then we could get rid of all those pesky Protestants who keep arguing with us, because we could prove things." But the debate over infinitesimals threw a wrench into that thinking. The whole point of mathematics was to be certain, Alexander says. "Everything is known, and everything has its place, and there's a very orderly hierarchy of results there. And now, in the middle of that, you throw this paradox, and you can get all those strange results. That basically means that mathematics can't be trusted, and if mathematics can't be trusted, what else can?" The 17th-century rivalry between English philosopher Thomas Hobbes, left, and English mathematician John Wallis lasted decades. So the Jesuits waged a war of letters, threats and intimidation against the supporters of the infinitesimal, a group that included some of Italy's greatest thinkers — Galileo, Gerolamo Cardano, Federico Commandino and others. In Italy, the Jesuits' victory was complete. Ponder that the next time you have "back pain."

True. What does he do well? I mean, if he was a Special Teams beast like Matakevich I'd get it. TE has been a position where we really need depth, and instead we've been sticking with Tommy Boy. Nothing personal against him. He's just not an NFL player.

That's where I am now, in my late 50s. Corny, yeah, but I'll say it: it's the journey, not the destination. Crazy as it sounds, I enjoyed commiserating with other Bills fans throughout the drought. Being a fan of a perennial loser is kind of ... fun? In a weird way. Now I'm enjoying being a fan of a team that every football fan cares about and respects. Even if they don't get over that last hump. Whatever. It's a game. It's a thing we do (following the Bills) because it's a fun diversion from all the problems of our lives or of the world in general. Yeah. Here in Colorado I went to the Broncos 2015 Super Bowl parade. And then the Avs parade last year. You know what? Both were kind of anti-climactic. And hardcore Broncs/Avs fans immediately started the talk about repeating. I felt like everyone needed to take a few months to just chill. It was actually kind of exhausting.

We don't have a lot of serious baseball fans here. But even if you don't ordinarily care about baseball (or don't care until the playoffs, which is kind of where I am most seasons), there's some fantastic entertainment there. Baseball has been slow to recognize the opportunities here, including the best proposal out there: dispense with the All Star game, shorten the season a bit, and do a true World Cup tournament in July. But the product out there now is really good, and particularly players from non-USA teams really care about winning, sometimes a little too much:

Aaron Rodgers wants to play in NJ (not New York). NJ top marginal tax rate: 10.75% WI top marginal tax rate: 7.65% Sometimes it's not just about the taxes.

Romney WAS right, c. 2012 when he called Russia our #1 geopolitical rival, only to be mocked by Obama (he of the "I'll have more flexibility" to give Russia what it wanted after the election). Being right -- foreseeing future events if we continue down the wrong foreign policy path -- used to count for something. Maybe it still should.

Thanks. But if it ever comes back, I'm sticking with my barely used tube of ivermectin cream. Even though it expired a few years ago.

Re: Ivermectin. I was prescribed it about 5 years ago (long before COVID) for rosacea. It worked. The rosacea completely went away. I imagine it is prescribed to many, many people like me. By the way, it is a rather fascinating minor skin condition. It seems we all have these microscopic mites on our skin that sometimes cause a serious reaction in certain people. Ivermectin puts things back in balance. My dermatologist said you can think of it as a kind of an insecticide for the skin .... The blogger/psychiatrist known as Scott Alexander did a deep dive into the ivermectin-COVID literature and he came up with an interesting theory about why ivermectin had some early positive results in some populations; these populations tended to be in geographic regions where parasitic infections are common, so it may be that the ivermectin was effectively treating that (resulting in a healthier patient) rather than the virus itself. Speculative, but intriguing ... https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted

True. And that's why we find ourselves in this situation where a "return to normalcy" -- interest rates in the traditional stable economy range (where they were headed), inflation also in the post-Volcker range -- seems to be impossible. The slightest hint of actual harm -- a weird bank with a weird depositor base failed! -- and the overreaction will bring us back to zero interest rates and another cycle of inflation, and another world (which many people want!) in which There Is No Alternative (TINA) to the stock market, and another stock market bubble, and another ... and so on and so on.