The Frankish Reich

I have to admit this is true. I don't like that it's true, but that doesn't make it false. Trump doesn't win - or even come close to winning - in 2016 unless a lot of independent/Democratic voters vote for him.

Which leaves the U.S. Fed's rate at 5.5%. Which is 7 full percentage points lower than Russia's new ruble rate. Or 2.5 times higher. But other than that, I guess they're really in the same league.

Keep on like that and he's gonna IGNORE YOU and proceed to tag you half a dozen times a day to prove it.

I disagree with the last sentence. Trump has very significant support in a number of demographics. Having said that, Trump's supporters here should stop and think about what these numbers mean. Are they consistent with a belief that the downtrodden masses support Biden and the Dems because they are the functional equivalent of "commies?" It seems to me that the proletariat is pretty Trumpy. Why? As your resident capitalist who enjoys playing Marxist Analyst for such things, allow me to explain: Trumpism is the new opiate of the people. He is the most self-interested capitalist we have ever had in the White House. He has been quoted as criticizing his minions as looking "low class." His signature achievement as President, with control of both houses of congress? A tax cut that overwhelmingly benefited wealthy people like himself. He is an old fashioned country club Republican beneath the combover and spray-on tan. He is so country club that he actually owns the country clubs. He governed (to the extent his short attention span edicts can be called "governing") as Mitt Romney. The bs salesmanship that works on the poorly educated is everything else he focuses on. Keeping America from becoming browner by limiting immigration, including of the legal kind, even though his country clubs enthusiastically enjoyed the benefits provided by illegal workers. Pretending to be a Christian (Q. When did he last attend church?) and some weird kind of libertine adult-film-actress-screwing (for money) defender of the faith. Defender of the "I'm a guy who works with his hands for a living" common man who hasn't driven anything other than a golf cart for decades or flown commercially for just as long. Marx and his followers told us that this is exactly what the capitalists will do - deflect your attention, get you to focus on unimportant crap so you don't recognize just how deeply his short fingers are banging you.

There's "athletic" and then there's "freak of nature athlete." Richardson looks like he's in the latter camp. To me it looks like his floor is going to be a Justin Fields 2022 type, able to at least win some games solely based on that athleticism. In other words, not a bust. Whether he can make it to the next level and actually become a polished QB like Allen is a different question.

Huh? Wouldn't they be increasing supply and keeping oil/gas cheap to keep the West addicted to oil? If the price of oil rises, the higher-priced renewables become more competitive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/03/business/energy-environment/saudi-arabia-oil-production-cut.html Our friends, the Saudis.

I think I watched at least some of every Broncos game last year (which has to do with where I live, not with entertainment value), and I came to the conclusion that the best player on a horrid Broncos offense last year was Latavius Murray. How he managed to grind out positive yardage week after week on that offense was kind of amazing. Aging RBs sometimes lose it fast, but last year he looked like the same guy that he was in his prime. I predict he plays a significant positive role this year.

But that kind of risk is also why Treasuries were downgraded. My general point: far, far too many people get their one-sided view of the news from sites/feeds that exist for the sole purpose of spitting out political hot takes that get clicks. So "Fitch downgrades treasuries" is immediately spun into "Bond rating agencies to Biden: Your Economy is a Wreck." Or from the other side: "Republicans Played With Fire in the Debt Ceiling Crisis, Now We Will All Pay More to Borrow." Too easy.

The gods only know what caused this change of heart.

All of these comments show the danger of people living in their respective righty/lefty information bubbles. The quoted items here are all secondary sources with strong political biases. So you're reading spin, not news. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023 Growing government debt burden. This reflects increased spending of course, but also Fitch's analysis that a recession (and decreased tax revenues) is likely. Blame? Both parties. Trump tax cuts and spending, Biden spending. I will say the blame tilts toward Democrats. Medium-term fiscal challenges unaddressed. This is the "pretend Social Security and Medicare solvency isn't a problem." Blame? Both parties. Equally. Erosion of governance. Lots of things going on here, but the immediate cause? The debt ceiling standoff. After all, Fitch is rating bonds to give investors some indication of the likelihood of default, and we came way too close for comfort to default a couple months ago. Blame: heavily weighted toward Republicans, some of whom (Trump) cavalierly said "so let the U.S. government default." Fed tightening. This raises the cost of borrowing, including by the U.S. Government. Blame? Neither party, as the Fed is independent. Was that so hard? Four bullet points. Fair summary. No stupid spin.

Had to look that one up - I like it!

Oh, that's already happened. I think they go with"deep state" rather than "commie" given the obviously capitalist leanings. But they don't seem terribly clear on the dividing line.

It is sad. Little Marco, not terribly bright but otherwise a decent guy, running scared of Trump now. It will take a long, long time for the Republicans to rebuild their bench. Kind of like the baseball team with a bunch of promising minor league prospects who all fizzled by the time they hit AAA.

The Wall Street Journal on the various indictments. I agree with this assessment: "The first indictment in New York state by a partisan district attorney for paying hush money is a junk case. Mr. Smith’s previous indictment for mishandling classified documents is more serious and the evidence stronger. But this latest indictment goes to the core of American democracy and the transfer of power." https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-indictment-jack-smith-jan-6-2020-election-96a894f5?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s First year Criminal Law class I learned that there are various justifications for having such things as crimes and punishment. There's specific deterrence or incapacitation - the defendant murdered someone or defrauded someone or sexually assaulted someone, and we want to lock him up so he can't do it again. There's retribution - society's desire to express its collective outrage at anti-social behavior. And then there's general deterrence: if someone flouts our laws and norms and it goes unpunished, that will simply embolden other people to do the same thing themselves. It's mostly that last one that the Wall Street Journal is getting at. Trump himself, ever playing the victim, says it is all about getting even with him, or that it's about trying to eliminate him as the #1 rival to Biden in the 2024 election. But there's a larger point in this prosecution, the idea that Trump, aided by various unscrupulous lawyers concocting wild legal theories, and Trump (and a very few remaining sycophantic aides and supporters) cynically adopting those theories, aided by criminal tactics, all for the purpose of thwarting the rule of law and the legitimate outcome of the electoral college. Some of us still believe the peaceful and orderly transfer of power in America is something to celebrate, and that a criminal attempt to circumvent that does need to be prosecuted, and that announcing that you are running again for President shouldn't result in some kind of cloak of immunity around you. This is a just and necessary prosecution.

I don't want the poorly educated grading my jokes, thank you.

There is nothing "weak" here. I read it. It is detailed and it obviously foreshadows testimony of certain key witnesses that Trump did not reasonably believe he had won the election, such that his attempts to subvert normal processes were part of a criminal scheme to remain in power without any valid claim to do so. And if Garland had been in the loop, all Trumpies would be satisfied that everything was kosher? No. There would be a firestorm of protest about a political appointee bringing charges.

Actually moderately amusing. But Point 1 is obviously incorrect. The Poorly Educated are 100% beholden to Trump.

So it's come down to this: Turley is arguing that Biden political appointee, AG Merrick Garland, should be MORE involved in the investigations of Trump.

The theory seems to be that Chansley wasn't beaten or shot, hence his entry was authorized. Of course if you've already broken in and then you proceed to try to break through an interior door into the Speaker's office, and are shot and killed when confronted by law enforcement, you were murdered. Such is the logic of the January 6 apologists.

Most pro-Trump Trump-appointee judge assigned to Mar-a-Lago classified files case: Luck of the Draw!

Except when they're Russians! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Butina

To these you may also add Ashlii (sic) Babbit, the official Martyr (from the AP) Her Twitter account, which was taken down after her death, was rife with references to the QAnon conspiracy theory, which centers on the baseless belief that Trump has secretly battled deep-state enemies and a cabal of Satan-worshiping cannibals that includes prominent Democrats who operate a child sex trafficking ring. “Nothing will stop us,” Babbitt tweeted Jan. 5. “They can try and try and try but the storm is here and it is descending upon DC in less than 24 hours....dark to light!” Among Q followers, “The Storm” refers to the predicted day Trump would finally unmask the pedophile cabal, arrest and execute those deemed traitors and restore America to greatness. And the favorite Twitter monkey of some posters here, the legendary Jack Posobiec of Pizzagate fame. You know, where the child sex slaves were held in the basement of a pizza join? The one that actually didn't even have a basement? (from his wikipedia page) Posobiec has promoted many falsehoods,[34] leading to Philadelphia calling him the "King of Fake News" in 2017.[23] He was one of the most prominent promoters on social media of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, which falsely claimed that high-ranking officials were involved in a child-sex ring centered at a Washington, D.C., pizzeria.[23][19] He live-streamed an investigation of the pizzeria and was asked to leave after attempting to broadcast a child's birthday party being held in a back room.[65] Posobiec later said he had always thought the Pizzagate theory was "stupid" and had filmed his visit to debunk it.[23] Posobiec attempted to discredit anti-Trump protesters in November 2016 by planting a sign at a protest reading "Rape Melania".[66][67][68] Posobiec denied his involvement to BuzzFeed News, but the same phone number was used in his contact with the website and the text messages he reportedly sent.

What did he lie about? I've seen the argument that Pence was too cautious (Trump called him weak), but where's the lie? He said he was convinced, after seeking the advice of his counsel, that he lacked authority to reject electoral slates. Are you saying that's a lie? Then I guess his counsel is a liar too. I guess Trump is the last honest man in America. Including you.

No. Trump was a Man of Peace. He couldn't have done that. He also never threatened Little Rocket Man with fire and fury such that the world has never seen before. He always favored negotiation over the exercise of U.S. military power or the threatened use of U.S. military power.