GunnerBill

That is funnier than you realise haha.

I don't think this is true. We had a core - White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano (all played together for SEVEN seasons). Taron joined them a year later and played that group SIX seasons. Tremaine joined the same year but left a year before the three vet DBs and played with that group FIVE seasons. Ed Oliver joined year later and played with that core for FOUR seasons. That was seven core guys who were brought in during the first 3 years of this regime. Over the last couple of years that they lost four of those core guys. And this is the first attempt since at really reloading the defense. What it is accurate to say is they have had multiple versions of the Dline around Oliver in that time. Largely that has been mid tier FAs... and I agree they have not always spent that money well. They have made two big investments there - Groot in round 1 who has been good but not great; and Von as a FA which for injury reasons ultimately failed. But this is the first attempt to actually remake the defense since those guys brought in through the first three years of the regime. We are entering year nine. It is reasonable at this point that you need to do that. Tbh the Bills D kinda bucked the trend in terms of staying together and being productive for five seasons. That isn't me saying they have done enough at receiver. I am pretty vocal about where I think they are still lacking and their under prioritisation of the position over the past 3 or 4 offseasons. I wanted Christian Watson. I wanted to trade up for Jordan Addison. I wanted to trade up for BTJ. But I think the defense was talent deficient last year and it was right to try and kick start McDermott era defense 2.0 this offseason. Would just have been nice if they'd done more than baseline FA acquisitions at receiver at the same time.

Does your gf have nudes?

I watched the presser. He didn't.

Yep. I think that is the ball park. And with the 3rd year of the extension being a pretty comfortable out for the Bills. Maybe around $5-6m dead cap ideally... but definitely no more than $8m. So it might be $15m AAV as the shiny number for the agent. $12.5m AAV as the number for cap purposes and then about $11.75m AAV if the final year of that extension is one he isn't really likely to play on because it has a big cap # but most of that is non-guaranteed base salary (you'd either extend and lower the hit if he is still good or cut bait if he isn't..). Davis can't easily replace James Cook anywhere. Also worth saying for all the Davis lovers.... he is less than two months younger than James Cook. So anyone thinking it's a young guy with more development..... not sure that's the case. He is an OLD 2nd year player. Basically it is just a choice to accept getting worse in order to get cheaper. Normally at running back I'm fine with that. But when the running back is clearly the most dynamic skill position player on the offense I am less gung ho.

Yep. If he turns up the final week of camp he probably doesn't start week 1 or even week 2. But that isn't about being in the doghouse it is about being in proper game shape. They'd ramp him up and week 3 or 4 he'd be back to the starting job. But as long as he is here most or all of camp James Cook will be the starter. No question. He is just a different talent level altogether than the other guys.

Don't know if he was significant but he was/is competition. I wonder if Hancock might get a look too. Feels like a ton of their eggs are in the "Cole Bishop astronomic leap forward" bucket though.

It has long since been removed for the interwebs I believe. The clip never confirmed it was Carlos Hyde btw, but it did show the Bills working the phones trying to trade up and then Whaley standing hands on hips looking up at the TV pissed and Monos who was sitting to his right looking at him and saying "they got our guy."

Yes. I don't believe bulliten board material has any real impact on mental state. Players convince themselves it does. Normally as a results based narrative after the event. Nobody ever talks about the bulletin board stuff when they lose. It only matters when they win. It's the reason! It isn't. It's mumbo jumbo.

It's all myth and legend. Players might think they played better because they felt some sort of slight before the game. But they didn't. It makes for good emotive stories. But there is no factual basis whatsoever. Just a bunch of feels.

I am not using placebo effect in its medical sense. It now has an accepted wider application for analogous situations where a percieved effect is bigger than the reality.

Yea fans hat the business side of football. But it exists. You can't play stop the world I want to get off. If fans think $15m is "ridiculous" they are not following the NFL market. Is it high? Yes. Is it more than you'd like to pay him? Yes. But it isn't ridiculous. And I don't break the market down by 2 down vs 3 down. I break it down between guys who are a genuine threat to go the distance and guys who are just chain movers. Cook is the former.

Not quite right. He said the Bills told him on his visit that if he was there they wanted him. Not in a call on draft night. But of course they edit the video to suit the reality. It isn't a true reflection of what went on in the draft. It's a snapshot cleverly edited together to make the team look good. I remember long ago before Embedded the social media team did a post draft video that showed Whaley trying, and failing, to trade up on day 2 for Carlos Hyde, the running back out of Ohio State, and apparently when it went out Whaley and Monos were apoplectic. Lesson learnt.

You say it is ridiculous amount. I don't. I say it's the top end of his market, sure. But ridiculous? Not for me. I don't think any of the other guys that renewed this offseason did. But Diggs and Poyer got new deals after playing the social media game in previous seasons.

The right answer is Fitz. I was kinda sad he didn't come back to back up Josh for one final year in 2021 to then retire a Bill. I believe Beane had a conversation with him and then Washington arrived on the scene offering an opportunity to start and obviously he was gonna take that. I started watching the Bills in 02. Fitz was easily the most fun watch of any QB we had between then and Josh. And when the team isn't good just give me entertainment. Nothing worse than a bad team trying to Jauron ball its way to 7 wins with Kelly Holcomb throwing 3 yard passes 15 times a game.

Put out what? One message on social media? Plenty.

And there is an even bigger bump coming. Agree. Don't think Cook has acted like that at all. It's been quite low key by modern NFL contract negotiation standards.

You are looking at numbers as total yards though. I'm looking at it as yards per attempt. Cook isn't a mash into the pile 20 times a game back. He is a big play threat. Josh Jacobs has never been that and Kamara and Jones are not that at this stage of their careers. As for your first point.... I think is where I am divorcing theory, from reality. I'd rather that money had gone on DK too. I'd rather have my explosive playmakers outside as receivers and in an ideal team building plan I'd be against paying a running back even if it is as one as explosive as Cook. But where I have got to is a result of the team we have. Not the team I'd build if it were me. Beane has shown no urgency to add explosive playmakers outside and so it leaves this offense, except for Cook, really lacking in guys who are a proven threat to go the distance every time they touch the ball. That's why I lean towards pay him at this point and I am not super worried about AAV. I am worried about length of commitment. A 3 year extension where the Bills can get out without major pain after the 2nd new year likely keeps Cook here until after his age 28 season - which tends to be when you start to see the thread wear down on the tires.... even for a guy that came into the NFL with a lot left in the tank given his usage in college. If he wants longer than that AND the $15m number I am out. But if he'd take that number for 3 years (which when you add it to the one year he has remaining leaves you in actual fact looking at about $12.7m AAV over 4) then I am leaning towards I'd do it. Because if he doesn't play man.... it isn't just the explosives you lose its the avoiding third down where Cook rips off 11 on 1st and 10 and immediately gets you a new set of downs. That is gonna make playing offense a ton harder if that's Davis for 3 or 4 half of those times.

Yea. Placebo effect. They think "man I'm gonna be so focussed because of that" but when they get on the field that isn't what makes him make great throws, or good decisions. It's technique, talent and split second decision making. Yea. Placebo effect. He thought it made him better, so he kept doing it.

No I don't think it did. I think Josh Allen being in a better place mentally away from football and in a better designed offense that sought to simplify the decisions for him and reduced the opportunities for him to get himself into trouble were the factors behind it. Oh and just his insane level of natural talent. I think Josh Allen is a guy with incredible natural drive and determination to win. I don't think he needs people talking about him to foster that.

He wasn't a 1st round type Quarterback talent even before the injury. Good college QB, sad for him to end without ever really getting a shot in the pros because of health, but his ceiling was in any event somewhat limited.

As is well known on these boards I think bulletin board stuff is total mumbo jumbo placebo effect. It has no impact on performance.

Behave. He isn't calling out the MVP. He is doing exactly the opposite. He is saying that guy's the best so that's the one I wanna get. You have to be seriously sensitive to have a problem with this.

Cook has been in the league three seasons. His worst year ypa is better than all but one of Swift's five seasons in the league. Where they are similar is they both have the ability to stop their feet and then accelerate and burst quickly. But Swift doesn't have nearly Cook's vision. His misses too many holes. Sure, when you put a line that blows people off the ball in front of him he can be a big play threat. But he doesn't have the consistency in finding the smaller running lanes of Cook. And no, McDermott doesn't play favourites. He plays the guys who can help the team win.

Oh he is WAAAY better than DeAndre Swift. And I disagree he isn't a difference maker without gaping holes. The whole point about Cook is he makes the most of holes that are not gaping because he has elite vision. Did he have some runs last year where the Bills line just blew guys off the ball and he exploded through untouched? Yep. But he had multiple runs in that 8 to 20 yard bracket where a back with less vision is stopped at the line, or for a gain of one. While you are right he isn't a great pass blocker (nor is Ray Davis mind you, that's why Ty does it) if the Bills end up going from Cook to Davis that is a significant downgrade at the position. Normally I'd be like "meh, it's a downgrade at running back, who cares?" but the fact is until this offense gets better at generating explosive plays in the pass game outside of scramble drill those explosive runs are going to matter. He will play the season. 100%. He won't be here for OTAs. He won't be here for mandatory minicamp at a guess. He might not show up day 1 for camp. But by the tail of end of camp Cook will be here, he will be practicing and he will be ready for the season.