GunnerBill

TJ Sanders..... but yes to everything else.

I doubt we go unbeaten at home again but really I don't know how anyone gets to Baltimore and Cincinnati as "losses" when "toss ups" is an option. The way I see the home schedule is: 3 divisional games (should all be wins); 2 NFC South games (should both be wins); the Bengals game where I lean towards a win; and then we play 3 of the other teams I consider among the top five in the NFL - Bills, Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Ravens - and those three games against the Chiefs, Eagles and Ravens are toss ups. But what would surprise me is if the Bills lost all those toss up games. That just hasn't happened in the Allen era. They will find a way to win at least one of those three games. And their road schedule I think they have a genuine chance to go 8-0. I think this is one of the Bills better #1 seed opportunities of recent years.

Yea I don't think it was entirely off field. Tucker really struggled in 2024. Would they have shown more patience and loyalty if the off field stuff wasn't in the background, and given him a chance to bounce back in 2025? Perhaps, but it isn't crazy to say this is a football decision. Even if that is only partly true.

Beane does have final say over the draft. You should watch his pre draft presser this year. He explained their process very clearly from building the board the board to the involvement of the coaches to the final decision. It was almost exactly how it was described to me by someone who used to work for the Bills. McDermott doesn't make draft picks or demand certain players. Your suspicion that defense = McDermott is wrong I am afraid. Where however he does deserve some blame is on a miss like Kaiir Elam. Because for the guys near the top of the Bills board the coaches have watched those guys and have given at least some level of reassurance they can be fitted into the scheme. With Elam I never thought that was likely and it never worked. That is the role the coaches play - after the evaluation but before the final board is set - do these guys fit our scheme. Where they have clunky scheme fits there is an element of McDermott and his staff sharing the blame. Where it is just bad talent evaluation, that is Beane. The team building strategy is also Beane. Undervaluing wide receivers is him. He says it repeatedly. He believes Quarterback, then trenches. It is the Carolina model he grew up with. Quarterback and then defensive front 7 was very much the way the Panthers drafted. They also took three round one running backs while Beane was there... luckily he hasn't done that yet.

He doesn't "answer" to McDermott. But he isn't an all powerful GM in the way Howie is. The Bills have a flat structure. Sean and Brandon both report to Terry. In Philadelphia Howie is in total control. The Head Coach reports to him. But I still don't think that is the reason we draft less well. I just think Howie is better at his job and he has a hell of a staff around him. Alec Halaby in particular - the assistant GM - is a superstar. His self built analytics model is a critical piece in the way they team build.

They've already paid him and there is no way of getting out of it until after the 2027 season. I hate the big trade up slightly less than you for that exact reason. They don't need those picks for a QB. Lawrence is their guy for at least the next 3 seasons. If they see Hunter as a receiver first then it's kind of a final swing at the fences in terms of putting the pieces around Trevor to help him succeed. It might be throwing more assets at an already sunk cost but if the QB is no good they are not gonna be a good team the next 3 years anyway.

Because it backs the defense off to make the throws Josh does like easier. Im not sure Palmer is the deep threat you make out. He can do it but he is more of an intermediate route runner a la Diggs than a dynamic deep guy.

Not sure I'd put Green Bay in that group personally but fair on the others.

Don't disagree with that. My point was more the way NFL teams are built now everyone has their share of punts going into each season.

I think it is in the three and a half range.

While I don't disagree I do think you can make that kind of analysis about most NFL rosters most years. If you look at the Eagles roster going into 2024: - Relying on Zach Baun and Mekhi Becton to start after both were released at the end of rookie deals by bad teams who had no interest in keeping them. - Relying on Darius Slay to return to form after a massive down year age 33. - Relying on Nolan Smith to show something after a dreadful rookie season. - Relying on Nakobe Dean to stay healthy which he has showed no ability to do previously. - Relying on Milton Williams to look more like the guy he was before 2023 when he played more than ever and had less impact. - Relying on cobbling together some sort of wide receiver #3 impact with scrubs like Jahan Dotson. - and the big one... Relying on Jalen Hurts to return to the guy who looked after the football rather than the turnover machine he was in 2023. Other than WR3 they got what they needed in all of those areas but there were question marks, guys coming off down years all over their roster too. I just think that is the NFL in this era tbh. It doesn't always work out as well as it did for the 2024 Eagles of course. And the Bills could end up at the other end of the scale. What is most likely is they land somewhere in between and some of those question marks work out well, others work our badly.

https://www.podbean.com/ea/pb-hmvyj-189a46d For anyone interested we recorded a follow up last night where @Virgil joined @gonzo1105 and I to talk about: - how we got into evaluating draft prospects; - our respective evaluation processes; - some of our thoughts on the 2025 NFL Draft; - thoughts about the Bills' draft process and specifically some of their picks in this class. Again this is not being promoted anywhere else it is just for the interest of people here. So hope you enjoy.

It's also a Miami game. We beat them on a Thursday night I think Gailey's last year.... if I remember it right both teams had special teams return touchdowns. And then the Kyle Orton / Dan Carpenter Detroit road win under Marrone.

Do we know that he isn't? That's the question!

But not every team was right in that window. That was the point. The idea window for loading up around a QB now is years 3, 4 and 5 of the rookie contract. The Bills did in year 3, they went to the AFCCG and lost. But then the knock on covid impact meant years 4 and 5 they could not push all the chips in on the cap in the way, for example, that the Eagles did in 2022, 2023 and 2024.... which were years 3 to 5 for Hurts and resulted in two Superbowl appearances and one title. So while the obstacles faced were the same for all, not every team is at the same point of their salary cap cycle. And it was absolutely the worst timing for the Bills. Based on the average cap increases in the run up to those years it cost the Bills about $12m room to manouvre in 2021 and $15m room to manouvre in 2022.

Yep. I don't think he is a franchise guy but he can definitely be a serviceable Quarterback. And I think if the four guys on that roster have a genuine open competition then Sanders is, at this stage in Flacco's career, the most talented of the four and would emerge as the starter. Whether they have that genuine competition I am sceptical.

And it reminds me that the timing of Covid sucked for the Bills. Because it meant the last two years of Josh's really low cap hits when they knew he was unequivocally the guy and should have been loading up around him they were instead dealing with salary cap reductions because of the impact of Covid on revenues. It really did come at the worst possible time for what Beane was doing in terms of his long term roster management plan.

All six of his Superbowls in New England were won with top 10 defenses by points. By official NFL stats (which rank defenses by yards) 3/6 were top 10. 4/6 were top 15, with his first and last win both being with defenses outside the top 20. His Buccs winning D was top 10 in points and yards.

Of course none of those teams look forward to playing the Bills, but that's a given and isn't really relevant to the question in this thread. The question here is who do the Bills match up least well against. I think it is the Ravens because the things they do best on offense and defense - pound the rock, primarily using play action for their chunk plays and take away the middle of the field (even more so with drafting Starks) and use lots of simulated pressure looks on defense are the things that play best to the weaknesses of the Bills. I can see the argument for playoff time KC because I think at this stage it isn't even an Xs and Os or personnel advantage they have so much as a mental one. Cincy's pass game is a concern, sure but I like how the Bills match up to them everywhere else and the Bills nearly beat the Texans last year Josh playing like trash and completing just 9 passes - get anything like normal Josh Allen the Bills beat them 9/10 times. So purely on what do we do well and less well vs what does another team do well and less well it is Baltimore who give me most pause for thought.

Yep agree. I was a pretty decent semi-pro soccer player over here. I was never gonna make it pro but between 18 and 22 I earned decent money from playing in the leagues just below the professional pyramid. I had a knee cartilage op at 22 and I was just never the same. I never had the same confidence in my body, in my ability to explode into a sprint, in my ability to leap into aerial challenges. Even in my ability to plant with my right leg when I really wanted to strike full force with my left foot - which as a left back was a pretty key component of my game, I'd get the ball and had the passing range to drop the ball short, intermediate or long into that left channel for team mates to run onto. I lost control of my long ball totally. By 24 I'd slipped down three tiers of the pyramid (i.e. was playing in a league three standards lower) wasn't enjoying it and quit. So I do cut Kincaid some slack. It's fair to do so. But year 3 is massive for him. The Bills need to take a view on his option at the end of this season. Right now I'm not sure they'd pick it up.

I do think it is Baltimore. They do the most things well that matches up to Bills weaknesses.

I am not on about any of the off field. But you are simply wrong to say he was terrible against good competition in college. He wasn't. His game has warts, for sure, he definitely holds it too long and I think he refuses too many tight window throws that you have to make in the NFL. He isn't a franchise guy I ever see anyone committing to long term. But I think he has the ability to play in the league as a low end starter / bridge type. Whether his ego will allow that is a different question. I am talking purely about his game and what is on tape.

Terrible is an exaggeration. I am not a big Sanders guy, but he was not terrible against FBS schools. He played 5 ranked teams last year and other than the Arizona game he played pretty well. I think he can be a low end starter / bridge type Quarterback in the NFL based just on talent.

A team that hasn't been mentioned for worst that belongs in the conversation is the 49ers. He is their list of losses since last season: Deebo Samuel - starting WR Aaron Banks - starting LG Javon Hargrave - starting DT Maliek Collins - starting DT Leonard Floyd - starting DE Dre Greenlaw - starting LB Charvarius Ward - starting CB Talanoa Hufanga - starting S That's a ton of talent walking out of the door in one go. They went big on DL in the draft to replenish there but I'm not a huge Mykel Williams guy and I think both of the DTs they took are more 1Ts than the penetrating 3T Robert Saleh's defense needs. But everywhere else I think they are worse. There is a lot riding on McCaffrey and Aiyuk returning to (and maintaining) health otherwise this looks like another season of relative struggle. I don't think they are a playoff team in 2025.

Yea it is also a numbers point for me. If he can start stacking 800+ yard seasons together then fine, I'm willing to bump him up to a WR2 definition despite his limitations anywhere but the slot. At the moment in his two years starting he has a 600 yard season and an 800 yard season. If he settles more at the 2024 end of that (and I think he can), fine, happy to call him a WR2. And before I get the pile on I will just remind everyone that my yards and touchdowns prediction for Shakir in 2024 was out by one single yard. I had 820 and 4. I've got a good handle on who he is.