GunnerBill

The board was hollowed out there. If the draft fell this way they could have gone Watts with the first second rounder I suppose, but there were no corners left worth a 2nd round pick

He actually does not get burned in man. He is pretty good in man and the analytics back that up. He is not a Josh Norman redux (Norman was an elite zone player, but below average in man). He is really good. Not top 5 good but that is just the market. If a guy is top 12 or so (Benford is) then when they come up they go into the top 5 AAV and then fall down again as other guys come up. Without the health issues I'd have no concerns paying him. He is worth the money. But the concussions are a real concern. I would have done him as a priority this offseason before the two concussions in two weeks. Now I am a little more reluctant.

28-30 is where I guess it lands. Boundary receivers that good rarely hit FA. He only is because he is on the same team as a true elite guy in Chase. I'm trying to remember the last prime age guy as good as Higgins to hit the market?

The point of mock drafts, especially early in the process is not to try and correctly predict each pick. It is to try and play through scenarios in terms of players likely available in a certain range. Where is the run on tackles likely to start? When do the second tier of edge rushers last until? For example going through this process pretty much crystalised for me that if the Bills want a corner early in this draft they likely need to be willing to use their first pick on one or be willing to trade up in the second round. If they don't there are too many corner needy teams in the middle of round 2 who are a threat to take them off the board. And by the way.... that is exactly what teams do. Every team does it. Every scouting staff in the run up to the draft run in house mock drafts for exactly that purpose. It gives you a feel for the first couple of rounds. If you don't like it, that is your prerogative. Don't open the thread.

I liked Scourton more than I expected to actually. He has a lot more nuance to his rush plan than I expected (he is probably the most refined pass rusher of the whole class tbh) and he really uses his hands well. He had a bit more pop on his Purdue tape than at A&M where they had him playing heavier, but even there I think he is a better pass rusher than you might immediately give him credit for. I think he is pretty scheme versatile. You could use him as a 5T in a 34 or he can play as a defensive end in a 43. I did teeter over a first round grade on him until I watched the Texas game. I think against two legit tackles (who will both go in the first two rounds) he struggled a bit. I ended up with a high 2nd. But if he drops a few pounds to get back to Purdue weight I think he can be a 3 down edge rusher. He has all the other tools you'd look for.

And the 2024 class just got ranked 30/32 on NFL.com

That is standard practice around the league Day 3 is the scouts day. If you think Brandon Beane is an expert on all the guys they pick day 3 that is just not how it works. Days 1 and 2 are the execs. Day 3 is known as "the working man's day" and it is when you find out how good your road scouts are.

That's the one. Although the Jones contract was pretty much at the owner's insistence.

Yea he did some scouting when he was promoted assistant GM in Carolina. Dave Gettleman (who got the job over Beane after Beane had been the acting GM when Hurney was fired the first time) took him under his wing and taught him a bit. But he came up on the football ops side. Joe Schoen was the talent evaluator. He is a career scout. I know from people in the building when it came to personnel Beane trusted Joe more than he trusted himseld. I think Gaine and Grey are fine personnel people and I am sure Brandon trusts them. But not like he trusted Joe Schoen.

Monos and Dunne are buddies. No particularly surprising things here though and on a lot of the personnel takes I agree with him.

It is just negotiating tactic 101 now. I don't like it but I won't panic yet. I am totally with you tho. My line is probably $11-12m. More than that? Trade him. There is gonne be a good market for running backs after the success of last year's FAs and there are multiple teams with needs.

Something that just struck me on this.... I think Beane has a real strong motive for his own professional reputation to keep at least three of these guys. 2022 was his best draft since his first one. He found four guys outside round 1 who we are all talking about here as being worth at least considering for big money extensions. Take out 2022. Look at his draft record 2019-2024 with 2022 excluded. From the 5 drafts that remain he has Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Dawson Knox, Spencer Brown and Tyler Bass. Okay maybe a Kincaid or a Torrence or a Coleman can still rebound. But without that 2022 class there are not a ton of starters on the Bills roster that he has drafted since 2018 and even fewer impact starters.

I agree that coming off the concussions Benford has probably gone from priority #1 to wait and see. I don't have any problem with the number for Benford. I think if healthy he is absolutely worth that number. But the concussions in the playoffs are a legit concern. If he is one hit away from being done going into 2025 I'm not committing big money to him. I'd do Bernard if that is really the price - $6.7m AAV (I think it will be more) and I'd do Cook at $10.2m AAV (but I think that will be more too). Shakir at $19.3m is a no from me.

I was higher on both McConkey and Worthy than I was on Coleman. Of the three I thought then, and think now, that Worthy is the best of the three as an outside receiver. So it isn't a defence of the Bills point at all for me. But you need outside receivers in the NFL and the Bills went into the draft with only Mack Hollins, I think they came out of the draft with only Mack Hollins basically too. And they ended up trading away a 3rd in mid season because of it. McConkey would not have fixed that and that is a major problem for Buffalo. If they were taking a receiver it should have been a guy who plays outside. I was in on the idea of a small trade up for BTJ. If it cost us a day 2 pick, so be it.

I mean ballparks are your guys thing...

Because I disagree with you. Inside in the NFL you can still influence with scheme. You can get Ladd McConkey 400 odd yards by matching him up on linebackers. You can shield a guard by using your centre to double guys. The reason there is and will always be a higher tarrif on people who play the outside positions in the NFL is because the extent to which you can influence those spots with scheme is more limited. There are points, normally high leverage ones too, in every game where your offensive tackles, edge rushers, boundary corners and outside receivers will be 1 on 1 and will just have to win that matchup. And that is why the value on those spots is and alwats will be higher. Agree McConkey is a stud. And I also agree Khalil Shakir shouldn't be influencing draft strategy. That wasn't my point in terms of the corner the Bills painted themselves into. It wasn't the existence of the slot guys they had that painted them into that corner. It was the non-existence of any viable outside players. And it led multiple times this season to problems in big spots, even after trading away a 3rd round pick. In week 4 a Ravens defender said publicly that their strategy was just stack the middle of the field because the Bills were no threat outside.

No you got an informed response and then said "no there is something else." There isn't. Shula was a Dorsey hire. He was never staying once Dorsey was gone.

That is utter insanity. But regardless. Rex hired a failed ex OC at Roman's request too in Chris Palmer. Even had Rex stayed in 2017, Palmer was gone. He was totally cut out of the game planning once Lynn took over.

Peterman. Hands down.

I have zero idea why the priest was fired. I mean as far as I'm concerned priest is a totally pointless made up job, but I have no idea why McDermott as a believer would fire one priest in favour of another. NFL coordinators hiring older offensive minds they have worked under before to be consultants though? Well I am familiar with that. It happens on a relatively regular basis in the NFL. And when the OC they come in with gets fired at the end of that seaon they go. It is standard operating practice. Why did McDermott hire Shula? Simple. Because Dorsey asked for him as a first time coordinator. A guy he trusted.

I just totted up and Draftek has 32/100 and PFF has 28. My board isn't yet advanced enough to count but I'd say my guy Matt is in the ballpark.

He would have been consulting on an offense that the Bills were no longer running. He was a crap OC himself. Consulting for another crap OC.

Nah. Dorsey wanted him here. He wasn't here when Daboll was OC. He was a Dorsey hire. Once Dorsey was gone he served no purpose.

Shula was a Dorsey guy. Simple as that.

Other than spending a 2nd I agree with this. I don't think Davis is near Cook's level personally. If you trade Cook you have to draft someone.