GunnerBill

Oh good we need more Ohio State fans around here...... 🤣

We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it: one 1st two 2nds one 3rd three 4ths one 5th two 6ths 10 picks total.

Grable is still a work in progress but he is pretty experienced. He has 43 college starts at left tackle. Okay they were at Jacksonville State and UCF but I think he could be in the mix for a starting role in 2025 if they can keep him and develop him. My bigger question is how he translates to the right side.

The bolded is true. but that is NOT what you originally said, is it? You said "comp picks are fake"

Hmm. It's not showing that now for me. Possibly a glitch yesterday? He is close though because Edwards does count at $2.8m, so Hollins at $2.6m is only just the wrong side of the line.

Not to me it wasn't. If any single team in the NFL is down 3 or 4 guys at a position they are starting someone like an AJ Klein. It sucks that we had a cluster injury at a position but we did. Thats like saying the 49ers needed a QB because if what happened in the NFCCG in 2022.

You are right they may not have been on their board. But Beane did say they "had a couple of chances to take a receiver" and decided "other positions were greater needs." I don't know which picks those were. But fair to make some assumptions.

I think Kincaid could lead them in receptions. I don't see it in yards though.

Jacksonville was the prefect place for him. He is a total JAG.

In his prime? Yes. Possibly not at this stage. But he was elite his last year in MIN on 94 targets. He was at his peak the best route runner in football.

He tore wrist ligaments in game 2 and was never fully right thereafter.

They keep moving money around the deals. It isn't quite as straightforward as simple restructures as the OTC post explains. But they keep making sure their guys are getting cash in their pockets because that is what the players care about much more so than AAV once the deal is signed. OTC predicts 2027 for a new Josh Allen deal. I might go a year earlier.... 2026 is the sweet spot IMO.

I am not sugar coating it. I am just not yet ready to say he is done. Maybe he was disinterested. Maybe he was nicked up. He'd definitely fallen out with Josh. He might be done. Or he might rebound in different circumstances. Neither of those would surprise me.

See my reply to @HappyDays and the OTC link he provided. Josh is "making" top 3 or 4 money each year. AAV is AAV. It matters when you sign the deal and your agent can tweet out "best paid QB ever" etc. But year on year what matters is the money the Bills are actually paying him. While that money keeps being top 3 or 4 every year the less incentive there is for him to seek an extension. They are 8th and 9th in AAV. They are both top 3 in cash paid in 2024.

There is still money they could kick. They don't want to kick it. And the reasons why are pretty well explained in that article. They want to allow themselves flex to keep moving money around to keep the cash number Josh gets each year up there in value who will stop him hankering after a new deal with a higher overall AAV. Because while the AAV matters the day you sign the deal it doesn't matter after that. What matters is what you are getting cash terms year on year and I made this point earlier in the offseason when people started talking about needing to extend him. Josh may now be way down the list on AAV but he remains top 3 or 4 each year on cash based on the moves the Bills keep making with his deal.

I actually don't know the answer to that. In theory I can't see why you couldn't but there may be a rule against it.

Samuel. I reckon if he stays healthy he ends up around 1,000 maybe just short of it. I have something like: Samuel 925 Kincaid 850 Shakir 800 Coleman 650 (but leads us in touchdowns) Knox 400 Cook 350 That gets you to 3,975. Then you have you bits and pieces guys contributing another 300-500 between them.... running back 2, Morris, Hollins whoever else is a depth receiver.

At $13m my plan would be have him play on the option unless he balls out this year. I'm open to the Tremaine approach with him of let him play on the option then move on and take the comp pick.

I have seen nothing of Grable myself but as I said in my day 3 debrief one of my spies who was at the Shrine Bowl week said he stood out in practices. If he has and kind of decent showing in pre-season (and maybe even if he doesn't) he is going to be very hard to sneak onto the PS.

I largely agree. While I think Van Demark is very likely to make it I do think Grable has a chance to dislodge him. They are similar player in terms of athletic profile. Vandy showed last pre-season that is very good at LT, but couldn't really get it at right tackle. If Grable can do both I think there is a world where they decide to go with him and a vet (I'm thinking specifically Collins in this space tbh). Equally given Beane mentioned Clapp specifically when asked about center the other day I wonder if he has a better shot in the building than we think. I'd definitely like the final 9 to be your predicted 8 and Grable. But will be interesting to see how it plays out. If they are all healthy can Beane maybe swing one of his trade for a day 3 pick tricks?

I hope so. Ty is such a JAG. If I can save 350k on that spot it is a no brainer for me.

Stefon Diggs was an elite receiver. Whether he still is remains to be seen - that is fair - but he has six consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Samuel's best year (which in fairness did come in a Joe Brady coordinated offense) was 851 yards. I would say that is super substantively lesser. Whether he is super substantively lesser than Stefon Diggs in 2024 we will see. But the Diggs we saw for at least 3 and a half years of his run in Buffalo? Yea. Samuel is a LOOOONG way short of that. I think Samuel could have a career year though. John Brown when forced into a #1 role by lack of alternatives had a thousand yard season for us. But he still wasn't close to what peak Stef Diggs was.

Yea he has. But they didn't kick the max they could. So there is still a bit of an opportunity to squeeze a bit more if we want to.

Well you know my views on Drake London he was a big reach by the Falcons and is another non-separator. But that wasn't really my point. My point was 4.6 you ain't going top 10. If Coleman had gone back to school, had a 1,000 yard season and then run a 4.53 he could have been a top 10 pick. But if he'd run a 4.61 he wouldn't have done. I didn't say he wasn't capable of running faster than 4.61. I always said his Combine time was not what he was capable of.

I am NOT consumed with his 40 time though. That isn't my knock. He doesn't separate. Speed. Route running. Nous. Combination thereof. He isn't a separator. And those guys rarely work out in the NFL and when they do it is invariably as big slots.