djp14150

Reality check is needed here…scores against above 500 teams Rams W 26-20 in OT Bucs L 20-16 Seahawks W 42-29 SEA was down 8 with ball in 4thQ Vikings W 31-29 packers W 24-14 … this game was closer than the score. GB three a pick 6 and 3 redzone drives with no points. Houston W 26-23 packers W 34-31 since the start of the year they have had loses on defense due to injury.

that would be a 3-6 game. chargers / broncos need to be ahead of 2nd place #6 seed to gain #5 because both LAC and DEN have lost to both BAL/PIT. Thry dtill play each other once which likely means one loses. Chargers best broncos earlier in season. thr loser of charger/ broncos for 2nd place would be #7 unless colts/ fins/ bengals overtake them #5 takes on Houston thr other option is 5 balt vs 4 Hous 3 PIT vs #6 PIT at BUF other st KC

hes 23+9+1 = 33. He needs 7 more. This week I think he gets 4. the last 3 weeks 1 each is doable

They are a game behind Seattle right now, they face off in week 18. Rams beat Seahawks in OT earlier. They W out they W division. getting WC….thry are a game behind Washington for last WC.

Sounds similar to this board if Bills lose…… NFL is a team game. You lose multiple offensive players as well as defense players will affect team results. 5 of 8 loses were by one score, KC was a close game. GB and BUF were the only blow out losses. if they had a healthier team 3-4 of those close games likely W just looking at the earlier 3 div loses… first Rams- 10 pt 4Q lead, losrbon last Dec FG Cards- up 23-13 in 4th, AZ score 11 to win. They happen to go for 2 on first TD thrn a under 2 FG gives them the lead instead of tie. Seahawks— up 17-13 late, Seahawks score TD with 12 seconds left. they win these 3 they are 9-6 people forget Purdy is not 100%

Who? All the other years vs this year. I’d be afraid signing him to some big contract. He’s also near 30. next year you have him, fields, Jones l Winston/Watson on thr market. what teams are looking fir a QB next year? Jets - if cut Rodgers Dolphins - Tua back up vet Browns- if they don’t keep Winston Titans — they could be a club thst drafts a QB high Raiders —- they could draft one Giants — they could draft one Vikings— they have the injured rookie, they could go with the cheaper vet Saints — if they cut Carr. They could draft a QB Seahawks — thry need to develop a young QB to take over Rams— they need to develop a younger QBto take over from Stafford

divisional rivals are always different games. Football isn’t transitive . Home vs road matters

SB rams had a much better defense.

3 3 and outs now…. Stafford had the game of his career last week

SI jinx

Because of player position you now must declare onside kick so it kills any surprise ones you could do onside kicks by saying you can’t call fair catch on a sky high kicked ball another wrinkle would be nice— if you kick the ball and it lands in the zone , if it bounces in the field twice and goes out of bounds, the ball is placed at the out of bounds point.

Does he have an LCL ?

If it ends up 1 KC 2 BUF 3 PIT 4 HOU 5 BAL —( PIT & BAL tiebreaker on DEN/LAC due to H2H)— 6 LAC 7 DEN/ IND/MIA/CIN 3 brats 7 3 beats 6 4 vs 5.., doesn’t matter Pit at BUF BAL/HOU at KC if BUF is 1, unless you have a 7 seed upset, BUF could host bal/ hou thrn a pit/ kc rematch

they are 2-8 in one score games.. NE 16-10 KC with that PI and last sec FG WAS in that back and forth no punt game BAL blew 4 thW 2 score lead, miss FG in OT and lose BAL back and forth game. Scored with under a minute, went for 3 and failed losing 35+34 LAC try made a 2nd half comeback but fell short PIT their wins was CLE and that punt in DAL 3-6 when scoring 25+points on the Sack leader — haven’t dug in, but I wonder how many of those came in a few games ( CLE, CAR, LV, NYG)

Not having wind also helps

It’s about consistency….. missed false starts? Those stand out. There were a few non calls against the rams including that 4 th down. there was OPIs not called with push offs of receivers when they turn or cut. There was thst 3rd down short pass thst got called that had mutual contact. brabbing thr jersey and pulling on it is generally an automatic flag if “seen”

Individual probability at 80% so PPP=0.8*0.8*0.8=0,522=51.2% Whats the probability of flipping 3 heads? 0.5*0.5*0,5=0.225= 12.5% odds making a 2 are much higher than 50%

my thinking is this doen 31-14 you think they May get a TD or 2 FGs. If you go for 2 and are successful then it’s 37 or 38 to 30. You reducing test 3 score to a 2 score, then one score deficit I would also apply the same logic to a 9 pt deficit. You get a TD go for 2 making it a one pt game. its 44-35. Bills score, I’d go for 2 making it 44-43. Turn kick off down field and let the KO returner score making it 51-43 and buffalo has TOS and around 50 seconds to get a TD+2 to tie. It does though…. going for 2 means you need 3 scores instead of possibly 4.

Its actually not…. P= probability of success at going for 2. the probability of getting 3 in a row going 14-23-30-38 is P*P*P if P= 0.7 then PPP= 34.3% It’s about 3% for an onside kick when you are down by 14 three analytics say go for 2 because it's based on probabilities assuming you have a good 3 yd offense. The Bills has a very good 2yd offense theirprobabilities likely higher at 80%+

When it was 31-14 and they scored… 31-22 38-22 38-30 38-38…tie game 44-45…they win my philosophy is if you are down 17 and think other team could score 7, I’d go for 2 after every TD

My own two pesos…. The Yankees and Mets offer were nearly the same. Same total money, just a year less. I think Soto did this because he wanted to be the teams headliner, not second fiddle. With Yankees he would be #2.

So offense is the reason we lost……

Got yo best Detroit if they want a shot an #1 seed. If they L they need KC to go 1-3. BUF goes LWWW for 13-4. IF PIT beats PHilly next week, thenBUF needs them to L one of final 3 and 2nd is BUF.

tiebreaker's with Steelers… both 10-3 and 7-2 in conference next week both play their final non conference game , remaking within conference. if they win out then they are still tied if bills lose to lions and Steelers W thrn buffalo would get first tiebreaker by WWE and Steelers L one. it thrn goes to common games Bills/ Steelers IND W L BAL L. W? Jets W? W KC W ? ? Is a game to play Bills beat Jets and Steelers L one of KC/ BAL, bills has tiebreaker If both win out out they are tied at 4-1 next tiebreaker is strength of schedule…below is full schedule, not who they have played to date. It’s the same as Ws if teams play same number of games buf/ pit winning out alone does not decide this tiebreaker. BUF AE, AS, NW, KC, balt, Det PIT AN, AW, NE, Jets, Colts, Atl AE 24 AN 30* AS 20, AW 30 NW. 27 NE 26 * NC 32 NC 15 BUF 103 PIT 101* Buffalo right now has the edge NC are non common * Tonight Cincy-dal still to play Next is strength of victory — now is undecided and depends on other teams games results. the tiebreaker order sre lH2H conference record common games strength of schedule strength of victory right now both are 3-1 against NFC and play final NFC game next week common games sre Indy, jets, balt, kc. Buf has jets, they have balt &KC

I look at blocked punt just as if you had a quick TD drive. If Buffalo was able to stop them from scoring a TD and holding them to a FG on one of those drives they would have won 42-40/41 Disagree….