Bleeding Bills Blue

Letting hogan walk wasn't the biggest mistake. The biggest mistake was believing he could be replaced by the trash we trotted out in training camp. I just like the activity. The arguments are all over the place, but its busy so I enjoy it.

Thats all well and good. How many yards do you project for Gillislee? How many yards to you project for his replacement with the same # of carries?

I seriously doubt he goes in the 2nd.

But then you only have him for 1 year at what - 2.8 million? This is 2 years instead of 1 and 3.25 AAV. Is there really that much of a difference? If you value him that highly you can just match the offer sheet.

Yeah - if they keep butler... they have 2 very good-borderline great corners. They replaced long with Kony Ealy. That roberts kid they drafted looks legit. Brown, Ninkovich, hightower, flowers and McCourtey - the mainstays. They'll probably add some additional LB depth in the draft this year. Pass rush help too. Even their special teams are best in class. Slater and Ebner - Allen and Gostkowski....

Their line is very good too... He won't put up all-pro numbers unless there's injuries, but they will have a top 3 offense. And probably a top 5 defense too TBH.

Hogan was fine for them - but he's just a piece. They attack you through their depth and game planning. This year its like... Gronk, Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Mitchell, Allen, Burkhead, White, Lewis, and Gillislee. Even if they don't get Gillislee they'll just sign someone else... And still beat us twice.

Look at it this way - Gillislee is being paid for the 150-200 carries that he'll likely get in NE. It's an overpay for the 100 carries he'll likely get in Buffalo. One thing i always like to remember is - don't pay someone for what they've done/accomplished for you. Pay someone for what you want/anticipate them doing for you. There's no "rewarding" you for your previous contributions. If i slap a value on you, then I should not exceed that value in contract negotiations. One team's value for a player is different than another teams. Hogan is more valuable in a Brady/Belichick offense, than he is in a Tyrod Taylor offense. Hence the difference of opinion on contract value between the two teams.

He was actually good outside of the fumbles in philly. 4 in a season for a backup running back is a bit out of hand. The rest of his 2012/2013 stat line was pretty good. Still hate the trade that Whaley made there... Good backs can be had with the same pick we traded. We got Karlos in the 5th of the draft that we traded a 4th for Brown in. I dunno - i just assume agents wanna play hard ball and won't sign anything until the market value is determined. Depends how badly he wants to be a bill - apparently not that badly...

I think they're going committee because of Brady. Theyd rather have a bunch of options. Gillislee, burkhead, White, Lewis.... they can hurt you in a bunch of ways.

He fumbled 5 times in 4 seasons... about 1 every 60 touches which is pretty bad. The fact that one cost us a game makes it that much worse.

Right - I'm saying... until he's tendered his agent won't let him sign anything (the goal is to be on the open market). When you tender him at the 2nd round tender the negotiations start at 3mil per year (roughly what the 2nd round tender is). He'd get no interest on the RFA market, and he likely walks in a year because we probably don't want to pay a 27 year old back-up RB that much.

While it guarantees a low-ish hit for a backup/spell/short yardage back, you're also fully guaranteeing a contract for 2018 when he may not be able to play. How would it have been structured to give him more money in 2017? I assume low base salary in 2018? He just got 2-years and 6... so his agent probably wanted more from the get-go. What is the incentive to sign?

For those criticizing Williams regarding his ball security, he was considered mediocre-poor regarding his fumbling in college ---- 1 in every 72 touches. Who knows if it improves if he played in 2015 - but it wasn't considered a strength. The 2 fumbles last year would likely stand to be an outlier from limited production, not necessarily a trend that he's going to fumble once every 15 touches. One was in a game we were leading by 29 points and had taken everyone out, and another was in a game where the team gave up on week 17. He also saw the field a bit less after the fumble against SF. However from a similar perspective - Gillislee in his 2 years playing in the NFL has fumbled 1 in every 81.5 touches. Not exactly the most amazing ball security either.

What would your Gillislee course have been? Just curious.

Oh i just mean - you can front load some cash, while having a low cap hit and easily manipulate that "90%" spend.

Pretty much - Belichicks not going anywhere any time soon. He'll stop coaching in a few years, but he'll probably move Patricia into the HC role and just work in the front office. Guys still very sharp at 65 - and he has 2 homes in the area, and he likes working. Brady will probably step back in 5 years, and we'll at least have a chance to be competitive then. They're still going to be good, they just won't have the all-time greatest QB shredding the NFL week in week out.

The floor only applies to a 4 year period - and its cash spending (not cap hits). Basically - that floor will never apply. Yeah - i think you look at the successful run first teams in the league and look who's playing QB and its fairly obvious. If you can't get premier talent at QB, its an alternate strategy for building a team.

Thats why i say basically, if you plan on cutting shady and want Gillislee to be the starter in 2018.... then sign the offer sheet.

Do any of those teams also employ a back whos making almost 9 million?

If we lose him - we get a pick. If we keep him... we keep him and lose nothing. Lose him = trade and acquisition of a pick. Keep him = keeping your own player and loss of nothing except cap space. It is nothing like a trade.

Were you here when McCoy punched an off-duty cop? That must've been over 100

Yes - the end result is "like" a trade... but if you sign him - you are exactly where you were when you tendered him - just paying him more. How is that "losing" a 5th round pick? We never had it to begin with.

No it doesnt. That's not how it works at all. We get him at the contract that he signed with NE. We don't trade NE anything. Why would they get a pick for trying to poach a player?

You're not trading anything because you don't have it yet. You get the 5th if you let him leave, you get him if you match the offer.