mjt328

It's mid-April. Nobody was signing TJ Yeldon as anything more than a backup. The staff has made it pretty clear, both in the way they talk about Shady and with their actions regarding the roster. They believe the O-Line was the problem last year, and he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Besides, Shady's trade value is virtually nothing at this point. We would be lucky to fetch a 4th-5th Rounder. It would be better to gamble on him rebounding, and then addressing the RB position next year.

It will be interesting to see the numbers on this contract. That will tell us a better idea if Yeldon is a roster lock for Week 1, or if he will be fighting for a position. I previously figured RB was going to be a Round 3-5 priority. But now they may not draft one at all. It's been said many times already, but the Bills are quickly running out of spots in the lineup. Unless Beane is planning to trade away some veteran players in the coming months, a heavy chunk of the players we draft are going to be buried on the depth chart or sent to the practice squad. I would be shocked if Beane doesn't try packaging some of those Day 3 picks to climb up the draft board. All ten guys are not making this roster.

I've listened to numerous GMs over the years. All have a similar system. Prospects are not ranked from 1-500. They are generally divided and ranked by position, and then divided into TIERS. So when the Bills pick at #9, they may have 5-6 guys at various positions in the SAME tier, all considered worthy of being selected in that spot. They may have Jonah Williams (OT), DK Metcalf (WR), TJ Hockinson (TE), Ed Oliver (DT), Rashan Gary (DE) and Devon White (LB) all ranked within the same tier. They could select ANY of these guys and still claim they have taken the BPA, even if they are ultimately making a preference based on need. When teams say they are drafting BPA... what they really mean is they WILL NOT be reaching (taking a player in a lower tier) just to fill a need.

Mock drafts are fun, but nobody is remotely close to accurate anymore. One trade at the top completely destroys everything after. And the last few years, pretty much every draft has seen multiple trades within the Top 10.

There will be defensive playmakers outside of the Top 5. You probably can't say the same for a potential franchise QB. If the Giants don't take a QB, there could still be another team that trades up and does. It's also possible the Raiders decide to take a QB.

I was going to say the same thing. Pretty much everyone that didn't reach for a QB ended up with a regular Pro-Bowl talent.

The 2013 draft class was possibly the worst in my lifetime.

If you have time over the next week, I would recommend doing some research on the prospects. The more you know about the players getting picked, the more fun and interesting the draft will be. If you are just watching to see whether the Bills take a DE, DT, WR, OT or TE, it's probably going to be boring. Especially because we don't have any glaring holes on the roster this year. I usually try to get a basic understanding of the Top 100 guys, which roughly covers the Top 3 rounds. You can get some good write-ups on NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Focus and Draft Breakdown, among others. YouTube is also a great place to watch game film and highlights.

Roster limitations are definitely a consideration. And at this point, it's hard seeing 10 picks sticking - unless a good portion end up on the practice squad. However, don't discount the ability for Beane to trade away current players as well. If we add an OT at #9, it's very possible we end up trading away Dion Dawkins. If we add a WR at #9, I wouldn't be surprised if Zay Jones is moved. Depending on how things shake out with the D-Line, I could see us shopping Shaq Lawson or even Jerry Hughes.

Almost all of Beane's trades last year were related to getting a QB. Each move was part of a strategy to get more picks, or to gradually move up the board. This year, I think teams (not just Buffalo) will be waiting to see how the draft unfolds. I could see us moving up or down from #9. Same with our Day 2-3 selections. I could see us making a trade for a big-name player. I could see us trading away someone, especially if whoever we pick makes them expendable.

I see this as two up-and-coming teams with young franchise QBs, ready to take the next step forward. I'm curious to see what happens in the draft, and how Josh Allen/Sam Darnold progress during training camp and preseason. It's a real toss-up. But right now, I prefer our overall roster and the fact we have an established coaching staff. 1-0 It's strange to play two back-to-back road games in the same stadium. And in both cases, we are a couple hours from Buffalo. In my opinion, the Giants have one of the worst teams in the NFL. And that was before losing their star WR. Failing to draft Eli Manning's replacement would be a huge mistake for the second year in a row. 2-0 Despite the strong start last year, I don't think the Bengals are very good. It's really time for them to rebuild and start over. It will be interesting to see if they draft Andy Dalton's replacement next week, or if they are content with another mediocre season. Either way, we win the home opener. 3-0 One of these days, the tide will turn against the Patriots. Hopefully it happens this season. New England also has a history of starting slow in the first month of the season. But until their collapse actually happens before my eyes, I just can't pick us to win. 3-1 The Titans are a solid team, which has finished 9-7 three years in a row. Before the season is over, I also think Marcus Mariota will prove to be a failed pick. In a really close matchup, I'm picking the home team. 3-2 The Dolphins are not tanking. But they also aren't very good. Maybe we get Fitzpatrick. But it's highly possible they are starting a rookie QB by this point of the season. We win this one in a blowout. 4-2 Philadelphia isn't the powerhouse that some people think they are. We are going to be heavy underdogs, but I still like our chances to pull out an upset here. I'll say Eagles in a close one. 4-3 The Redskins are another team who could be starting a rookie QB. Their overall roster is below average. I see this one as a potential blowout for us at home. 5-3 I think it's crazy how the Browns became media darlings, almost overnight. The idea they are suddenly an AFC favorite is a joke. With that said, Baker Mayfield does look to be a good one. This will be a very close matchup (similar to the Jets), so I'm giving it to the home team. 5-4 Our second matchup against what is possibly the NFL's worst team. 6-4 Strong defense. Terrible offense. Another team with a possible rookie QB under center. I think we win this one at home. 7-4 We don't do well on a national stage. And this may be our toughest road matchup. 7-5 I don't think Lamar Jackson develops into what the Ravens are hoping this year. 8-5 A road game against Pittsburgh used to be an automatic loss. But now I see a team with an aging QB, a depleted roster and an absolute mess in the locker room. My bold prediction is the Steelers are drafting Top 5 next season. 9-5 Will this game be for the AFC East title? It's possible. 9-6 I think we wrap up a playoff spot by beating the Jets at home. 10-6

Not saying it's a smokescreen, but many teams throw out bad information to hide interest in their true target. Teams trade up to grab position players all the time.

I wouldn't be a huge fan of us drafting DK Metcalf either... but where in the world are these mocks where he isn't a 1st Round Pick? Are you talking about legitimate media sites, or just a group of regular fans making picks? I follow pretty much every major draft site and haven't seen anyone mocking him outside the first round. He's most definitely the consensus #1 WR and is going between about #8-25 in just about every mock draft I've seen.

Glad we are doing our homework. I certainly don't expect Quinnen Williams to slip to #9. But it's definitely possible he gets within "striking distance" of a worthwhile trade. Consider this: 1. Kyler Murray is fully expected to go #1. 2. Nick Bosa and Williams are considered the only elite/can't-miss picks of this draft. But Josh Allen isn't far behind those two, and may be preferred by teams who run a 3-4 defense and really need an edge rusher (Jets/Giants). 3. John Gruden has made several comments about Derek Carr, causing many to believe the Raiders are considering a QB at #4. Even if it's a smokescreen by Oakland, the Jets have publicly talked about trading down. The #3 or #4 spots could be key on anyone eager to land Dwayne Haskins. 4. This particular draft class is very deep at Defensive Tackle, but only average at Offensive Tackle and very thin at Linebacker. That may cause some GMs desperate at OL or LB to consider Devon White or even Jawaan Taylor a premium. Don't get me wrong. It's very possible Williams is gone at #2. But if any of these (very possible) scenarios come true, he could easily slide to the #4-7 range. At that point, we are only talking moving up a few spots.

Depending on the discussion, I think you hear about both. The point about Clay's drop in the Miami game is a legit one. We aren't just talking about a close game, where a few plays could have made the difference. We are talking about one play, where Clay's inability to make a pretty routine catch was the obvious difference between 6-10 and 7-9.

If you are looking for D-Line, that still leaves Rashan Gary, Brian Burns and Christian Wilkins as potential picks at #9. Or you could go with TJ Hockinson, then try to trade back into the end of Round 1 and get someone like Clelin Ferrell, Jerry Tillery or Jeffery Simmons. In this particular situation, I have a really tough time believing that we couldn't manage some kind of trade down. The top LB (White) and the top OT (Taylor) are still on the board, and neither position is particularly strong in the later rounds.

Very surprised to see O-Line still high on so many lists. If we are going OT, does that mean we've already given up on Dion Dawkins playing that position? If we are sliding Dawkins inside, that pretty much guarantees Wyatt Teller is a goner, right? I mean we signed Spencer Long, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain already, and all would be worthy of fighting for the starting guard spots. Who knows for sure what the Bills are thinking here... but I really believe actions speak louder than words. Their actions have been to sign SIX offensive linemen in free agency (all of whom are expected to compete for a starting spot). Their actions have been to sign ONE defensive lineman in free agency (who has more experience as a SLB than as a DE).

It honestly shouldn't surprise anyone if the Bills make the playoffs this year. 1. We literally made the playoffs two seasons ago. 2. We have won between 6-9 games every year since 2010 (eight years in a row). This team has the reputation of being a garbage franchise. But in reality, we've been on the Wild Card doorstep for most of the last decade. The idea that Cleveland has suddenly become an AFC favorite is much crazier than expecting us to win 9-10 this year.

Small school guys often get knocked for playing against "weaker" competition. But you can't forget they also play alongside weaker teammates, and opponents can focus 100% on stopping just them. Meanwhile, guys from bigger schools usually have the benefit of playing alongside several other good players, and in many cases look better because of the system. Scouting is a tricky thing. You are literally trying to predict the future. Everything you know about a guy is based on maybe 20-25 games played, how his physical attributes show at the combine, and what you can find out in interviews. There is a reason that only 4-5 guys (at most) are considered "sure-things" every year in the draft, and some of those guys still don't work out.

The last truly superior LB who fits the profile you say was probably Ray Lewis. Luke Kuechly is probably the best in today's NFL, but I would hardly describe him as someone who dominates like the old days. Like it or not, the NFL is changing. The traditional running game is a complimentary piece to offenses now. Not a primary method of attack. And because of that, defenses must adapt. The big and powerful MLB who blows through linemen with ease, then stuffs runners in the hole... he's becoming a dinosaur. Teams need guys who can sprint from sideline to sideline, cover RBs and TEs in the passing game, chase down scrambling QBs, etc.

People seem to have a really hard time understanding the BPA idea. It's really not that tough. Just because a GM is drafting BPA, does NOT mean he isn't taking position into consideration at all. Fans seem to have this idea that Brandon Beane and his scouts are sitting around, ranking every college prospect from #1 to #500, and then drafting whoever is the top guy on the list. It doesn't quite work like that. In reality, most teams are only going to have those numbered breakdowns by position. After that, everything will be separated by tiers. You have the guys you think are elite/future Pro-Bowlers. You have the guys who are solid starters. You have the guys who are depth/backups. Etc. Etc. So (theoretically) for example, you may have DTs ranked #1-25. But then you have Quinnen Williams all by himself in Tier 1. Ed Oliver and Christian Wilkins in Tier 2. Jeffery Simmons, Jerry Tillery and Dexter Lawrence in Tier 3. You then have the OTs ranked #1-25. Nobody is in Tier 1 this year. Tier 2 has Jawaan Taylor and Jonah Williams. Tier 3 as Andre Dillard and Cody Ford. Finally, you have the CBs ranked #1-25. But you don't have anyone in Tiers 1-2, because it's a really weak class. You start ranking them in Tier 3 with Byron Murphy and Greedy Williams. And so on. - When the pick comes up, you don't want to have a massive need at CB. Because sitting at #9, it would be a bad idea to reach for an inferior player just to fill need. - At the same time, if Quinnen Williams is the only Tier 1 guy available, then you take him... even if you feel OT is a bigger need. - If everyone available is in Tier 2, then you just go by your rankings off the biggest positional need. And it's still BPA.

We still have room to keep our 10 picks without being forced into cutting key players from the 53-man roster. Looking through our current roster, I think (barring someone getting traded) we currently have 41 roster spots "set in stone" for the upcoming season. That would leave the following players as guys who would need to battle against drafted/undrafted rookies for a spot, or who could ultimately end up on the 10-man practice squad: Derek Anderson, Senorise Perry, Marcus Murphy, Keith Ford, Duke Williams, Isaiah McKenzie, Ray-Ray McCloud, Da'Mari Scott, Cam Phillips, Victor Bolden, Jason Croom, Jake Fisher, Russell Bodine, Vlad Ducasse, Ike Boettger, Connor McDermott, Eddie Yarbrough, Mike Love, Kyle Peko, Deon Lacey, Corey Thompson, Julian Stanford, Ryan Lewis, Lafayette Pitts, Denzel Rice, Dean Marlow, Siran Neal, Corey Bojorquez and Cory Carter. Nothing we can't live without... Going into the draft, I see the following 12 spots being up for grabs. 1 Running Back 1 Wide Receiver 2 Tight Ends 1 Offensive Lineman 1 Defensive End 1 Defensive Tackle 1 Outside Linebacker 1 Inside Linebacker 1 Cornerback 1 Safety 1 Punter

When it comes to Free Agency, always keep in mind.... There was a reason these players were allowed to leave their former teams. All of them have flaws and question marks. And if you are expecting us to suddenly have the NFL's best blocking unit, you will probably be disappointed. At the same time, very good players can be found in Free Agency every single year. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were fantastic upgrades that came from Free Agency. While all of these players have question marks, every addition gives us reason to be optimistic as well. Mitch Morse has consistently proven to be a Top 10 center in the NFL. There is a reason he was our top target, and he's the addition most of us are excited about. Of course, there are some concerns about his injury history - specifically with concussions. For a team forced into tough cap decisions, the Chiefs were not willing to make a long-term commitment for that very reason. If he stays healthy, this should be an awesome signing for us. Ty Nsekhe was widely considered the best backup OT in the NFL. He's been stuck behind a perennial Pro-Bowler in Trent Williams and pretty good RT in Morgan Moses. Every time he's gotten into the starting lineup (16 starts in 4 years), he's performed extremely well. As long as he fits the scheme, there is no reason to believe he won't be a tremendous upgrade for us. The only issue here is age. He got a late start in the NFL and already turns 34 in October. Quinton Spain has been a solid starter for the Titans for the last 3-4 years. Nothing Pro-Bowl level, but certainly better than anything we've fielded since Ritchie Incognito left. From what I understand, he doesn't quite fit the scheme that new Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to run. That's what made him expendable. For us, adding a "solid" guard is a monstrous improvement. Spencer Long was a pretty good player for the Redskins, but then completely bombed after signing a decent contract with the Jets last year. Which player are we getting? There are many who think he just wasn't a great Center and will be better with a move-back to Guard. Time will tell. Jon Feliciano was considered strong depth for the Raiders. LaAdrian Waddle was considered strong depth for the Patriots. Last year, both of these guys would have been unquestioned starters on the Bills, because our roster was so weak. I imagine both will be given the chance to win a starting position. But if not, they will give us strong depth.

If that is coming from an NFL executive, I feel sorry for whatever team he's running. You don't like the players the Bills signed? Fair enough. But to say they don't have a PLAN? That's just odd. If anything can be gathered from this offseason, it's that Beane had a clear strategy on where he wanted to improve and he executed it. We filled almost all of our holes prior to the draft, still have nearly $30 million in cap space and made virtually no long-term financial commitments. Our blocking was terrible last year. He has signed six new players to the O-Line. Our receivers were bad last year. He's added two new players to that position. He's even addressed the special teams with a handful of guys who are considered ST aces. We go into the draft in 3 weeks with only a few needs - DE, DT and TE. The strongest positions in this draft class? DE, DT and TE.

I like his strategy. And I think his master-plan for rebuilding the roster has been very sound. Beane's first 12 months were all about drafting a potential-franchise QB, and purging the salary cap of bad contracts. He executed both moves to perfection. But ultimately, he must also be great at evaluating talent and bringing in the right players. Only time will tell if he's been good enough on that end. What happens if Josh Allen turns out to be a bust? What good is cap space if he doesn't properly utilize it to restock the roster? I admittedly feel very optimistic about both of these issues. But we won't know until the Bills actually hit the field and start racking up wins.