mjt328

Mixed feelings. Pretty sure that Tremaine Edmunds won't be worth the highest Linebacker contract in the entire NFL. You have to be smart with extensions, and I can't blame the Bills for letting him walk for that. However, this does significantly hurt our defense. As will the very likely loss of Jordan Poyer. Many of us (myself included) would much rather see the Bills use those dollars on upgrading the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, I anticipate our front office making it a bigger priority to replace Edmunds/Poyer. Which means we probably use up our cap space without moving the needle on offense. More average/subpar signings that will hopefully compete for starting spots. Meh.

Pretty typical move for Brandon Beane on the O-Line. Average player with some starting experience. Similar to guys like Ty Nsekhe and David Quessenberry, who really never worked out. Hope he's an upgrade on the interior, but don't cross your fingers.

Green Bay has had a Hall of Fame QB under center every season since 1992. For the math challenged, that is 30 years in a row. And now they have another 1st Round QB ready to step in, after three seasons of development on the bench. Yes. Most people believe they have underperformed in the playoffs... if you consider 15 division titles, three conference championships and two Super Bowl wins during that span "underperforming." But that has to do with what they have surrounded Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers with. The Packers are the premier NFL franchise at handling the quarterback position. What they are NOT is the model for giving a QB adequate support. Particularly when it comes to weapons.

Everyone in the NFL (including the Ravens) knows that Lamar Jackson is simply not a great passing quarterback. In order to succeed, he needs a specialized offense built primarily around his ability to run the ball. And once his legs and athleticism start declining, Jackson will no longer be able to beat defenses with his arm. I know that people will immediately bring up Jackson's strong passing stats to defend him. But those numbers are an illusion, built on the tremendous respect defenses show him as a running threat. Teams usually play the Ravens by overloading the box with run defenders, keeping linebackers in as spies, and asking pass rushers to just play contain instead of trying to get sacks. This makes it much easier to find receivers wide open downfield. With each passing injury and age, Jackson will become less mobile and less of a threat to run. When this happens, defenses will feel more comfortable playing normal coverage schemes. Those wide open receivers will be a thing of the past. Jackson will need to start reading defenses from the pocket, and make pinpoint throws into tight windows. After five seasons in the NFL, he hasn't displayed a strong ability to do that. Jackson is a blast to watch. But the reality is, he already peaked in 2019. And even in his amazing MVP season, the Ravens were knocked out of the playoffs in the Divisional Round (after scoring 12 measly points). The last two seasons, he hasn't been able to stay healthy either. I can't blame any team for being skeptical of trading two 1st Round picks, and then handing him the biggest contract in NFL history.

I've been worried about the Bills failing to take the "next step" and win the Super Bowl. If this happens, we need to worry about them winning the AFC East.

Decent article. But it neglects us trading a 1st Round pick for Stefon Diggs. The problem isn't necessarily which positions we are allocating resources. The problem is that Brandon Beane is missing on too many picks in general. You simply can't afford to waste 2nd/3rd Round picks on backups and busts. If we hit on guys like Cody Ford, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Zack Moss, etc... then we could focus our free agency dollars on the other positions. We could definitely afford to sign or trade for a good WR opposite Diggs, except we still need to address positions like the Offensive Line, Defensive Line and Running Back (among others).

Leslie Frazier deserves a lot of blame for our disappointing playoff exits the last 4 seasons. Does he deserve all the blame? Does he deserve most of the blame? That's a tough question to answer, because nobody really knows how much of the decision-making falls on him vs. Sean McDermott. Also... replacing a coach is only a good thing IF you can manage to land an upgrade. This does not seem to be a planned exit by our front office. And at this point, most of the better options have been snatched up. Which is not ideal at all. I understand why many fans are excited. But I'm not so sure.

The main reason Eric Bieniemy can't get an HC job is the same reason Leslie Frazier gets zero consideration. He's not the reason for the unit's success, and everyone around the league knows it. The Chiefs offense ultimately belongs to Andy Reid, just like the Bills defense ultimately belongs to Sean McDermott. Granted, that is not the ONLY reason... but it's a giant checkmark against him. Frazier also has a failed stint with the Vikings, and the final impression he leaves at season's end is always of the defense choking. For Bieniemy, he also has multiple off-field arrests. Nothing hugely alarming or serious, but it's still a concern when you are talking about being the leader of a professional football organization. In addition, it's been widely reported that his past interviews for HC jobs have gone poorly. I don't recall seeing specifics, but it's something we've heard from reporters many times.

Heard the same excuse about our field against the Bengals, due to the weather (which is always going to be a problem in Buffalo). Players slipping, which somehow gave the advantage to the offense. Maybe a perfect field yields a couple sacks, and a different team wins. The Eagles still likely allow 30+ points. My point is the same. If an elite QB is on that day... even the 85 Bears wouldn't be able to stop them. Which considering the guys we have to go through in the AFC playoffs, makes it pointless to waste resources on that side of the ball. Because at some point, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, etc. are going to smack us around. Instead use the resources on the O-Line to keep our elite Quarterback healthy and pressure free, along with weapons to try and outscore the opponent.

I don't look at receivers in terms of numbers... WR1, WR2, WR3. I think it's better to look at them in terms of skill-set. Ken Dorsey and the Bills need to determine what kind of offense they are going to run, then aggressively find the players that fit into that puzzle. Based on what I saw this season, our OC and QB want to attack downfield with big chunk plays. Which is fine. But if that is going to be our gameplan, we need more downfield speed. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis can make plays downfield, but their real strength is working the 10-20 yard area. Same thing with Dawson Knox. We have lots of roster spots for slot receivers (McKenzie, Beasley, Crowder, Shakir). Our top returning RBs both specialize in check-down passes (Cook, Hines). But our biggest speed threat is John Brown. That's just not workable.

With each passing season, I'm coming to the conclusion that it's pointless to have a good defense. The Eagles were statistically one of the best pass rushing teams in NFL history. They barely sniffed Patrick Mahomes the entire night, and would have allowed 40+ points if the Chiefs didn't fall down at the 1-yard-line. The Chiefs best defender (Chris Jones) and the rest of the D-Line was bulldozed back, pretty much every time the Eagles decided to run a QB sneak. It was almost embarrassing. The only play they made the entire night was picking up a ball that Jalen Hurts literally dropped on the turf and kicked to them.

Disagree. Roster problems always start with drafting. And while Brandon Beane has not been a "bad drafter" overall (compared to the other GMs around the league), the quality has certainly gone down over the last few years. 2017 (although pre-Beane) landed us Tre White, Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano. 2018 landed us Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson. Not to mention Wyatt Teller, an All-Pro we later traded away. First two drafts for this regime, and we have multiple All-Pro and Pro-Bowl caliber players. Excellent foundation that set us up as a Super Bowl contender. 2019 got us Ed Oliver, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. Overall very solid draft, netting us three starting caliber players. But unlike the previous two, none of these guys are real difference makers. 2020 was good for getting us Stefon Diggs. But that's pretty much it. The best guys we actually drafted were Tyler Bass (a kicker), Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and AJ Epenesa. All role players at best, who are better in the NFL as backups. All positions we still need to upgrade. That is definitely a bust of a draft. 2021 got us Greg Rousseau... and some other guys who aren't making much impact. Spencer Brown was a liability this year. Damar Hamlin was OK. Boogie Basham is a backup who does very little. These guys deserve one more season, but this draft appears below average to date. 2022 has some potential to be solid. But probably not an elite group. Kaiir Elam looked good at times, but it's fair to question his fit in our defensive scheme. James Cook brings some speed, and has value in a 1-2 punch. Khalil Shakir flashed. Christian Benford may have something, and is being talked about as a potential safety.

I understand the value Tremaine Edmunds brings to the Defense. I understand the value Jordan Poyer brings to the Defense. I am starting to question the value the Defense brings to the Buffalo Bills as a whole. Every year, we have seen Brandon Beane dedicate the majority of our resources to that side of the ball (especially the D-Line). And every year, we end up fielding a Top 5 defense in the regular season... only to produce zero pressure and get blasted by an elite Quarterback in the postseason. So if a Top 5 defense is going to allow 35+ points, 400+ yards and scores on 75%+ drives... then how much worse could an AVERAGE defense actually play? Just start using those resources on protecting Josh Allen, and giving him other options to throw to. Make this offense totally unstoppable, and see if that gets us over the hump.

Being a GM gets progressively harder with success. Lower draft picks. Less money. Fewer holes mean you must focus on needs, instead of going BPA every round. Brandon Beane did a great job pulling the Bills out of the basement, and making us a Super Bowl contender. No doubt. He still needs to prove he can KEEP us at the top. Most teams can only contend for 3-4 years, and then must step back and reload. It's a rarity for teams to remain elite for a decade (like the Patriots). Unfortunately, the recent draft trend suggests we aren't going to sustain what we've seen the last few years.

When you have a young/superstar QB like Josh Allen and Super Bowl hopes, then drafting another QB before Day 3 is really a waste. We only need a backup QB in the event Allen gets injured. And if that happens, I don't want an unproven rookie coming off the bench. I want a veteran who can limit mistakes and avoid a losing streak while he recovers. Guys like Mitch Trubisky and Case Keenum are the way to go. Project QBs are really for teams without a franchise guy... or teams with one nearing the end of their career.

Much is going to depend on free agency (not just for us, but also our opponents). But my initial guess by looking at the schedule is 10-7.

The AFC East had a Hall of Fame quarterback (Dan Marino) and the coach with the most wins all-time (Don Shula). The rest of the division was bad. But it wasn't the total walk-over the Pats got for almost two decades.

The AFC East was an absolutely HUGE reason. None of the other teams had a franchise QB (much less an elite one) during the entire length of the Patriots championship run. They pretty much had a guaranteed Division title every single season. And with 5-6 easy wins, it was much easier for them to get a bye in the first round (back when they had two). New England rarely ran into another elite QB (Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers) until the Championship round. While most teams fell into the salary cap and age issue, the Patriots purposely built their roster to get around that pitfall. The playmakers on New England were generally the Tight End and Slot Receiver... two of the lowest paid positions in the NFL. O-Line was always a priority in the draft. They drafted LOTS of running backs and cycled through them constantly, so they never had to pay one big bucks. Outside of Randy Moss, they never really splurged on a flashy outside receiver either. On defense, Bill Belichick looked for bargains and often let his stars walk. Then he would build a defense AROUND the talents/skills he had on the roster, instead of splurging on free agents to fit his scheme. Mix all that with a Hall of Fame QB who seemingly never aged, and was willing to accept a contract well below market value.

All this finger-pointing on WHY the Bills lost that game... I think there are multiple reasons, and all have some truth to them. It's probably true that our locker room was emotionally exhausted. Everyone points to the "adversity" they faced during the season with injuries, weather and Damar Hamlin. But a lot of pressure also comes with being the Week 1 Super Bowl favorite as well. What Rodger Saffold says doesn't make them mentally weak. It's just a reality of how this team was overwhelmed by non-football things this season. It's also true that our performance was negatively impacted by season-ending injuries to Von Miller and Micah Hyde. Both are All-Pro talents, and you can't just replace them in the lineup. We knew that when each guy went down. And although the Bills were mostly healthy otherwise, the D-Line was pretty banged up. We also badly missed Daquon Jones for that game. Not to mention, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips playing through tough injuries. That does NOT let the coaching staff off the hook for having such a bland and uncreative gameplan, against one of the league's premier offenses. One game may be a fluke. Two games may be a coincidence. But after three straight years of this defense getting blasted in the playoffs, it's clear something is wrong at the top. They better figure something out in the offseason to change things up, or it's going to happen again next year. It also doesn't let Brandon Beane off the hook for his lackluster drafts recently. All GMs make mistakes. But when those mistakes start stockpiling, they deserve to be criticized for them. The condition our offensive and defensive lines are currently in... that falls on his plate. We know that he can build a roster from the ground-up, when he's got plenty of cap space and early draft picks. But can he maintain a competitive team when we have neither?

As of today, the Bills are the #3 team in the AFC. I would consider them top-tier in the AFC, but a slight step behind the Chiefs and Bengals. The biggest problem for the Bills is moving-forward. It's going to take a brilliant offseason from Brandon Beane for us to just keep pace. Much less take the steps needed to pass those teams. Not to mention other young rosters (Jets, Jaguars) who are clearly on the rise. Just looking at the defense... They have two major free agents (Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds) who they really can't afford to bring back. They have two key players coming back from serious injuries (Micah Hyde and Von Miller), who may never be the same. Their best defensive player over the past 4-5 years (Tre White) came back a step slower, and it's fair to question if he ever returns to form. The Pro Bowl breakout season we expected from a former Top 10 pick (Ed Oliver) never materialized. Other early picks (AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham) have struggled to make an impact. Our top picks from last season (Kaiir Elam, Terrel Bernard) don't appear to be fits in our defensive scheme. On offense... The O-Line has been a glaring weakness for years now. We don't have cap space to fix it. None of our weapons are a legitimate threat for opposing defenses (outside of Stefon Diggs). We don't have the cap space to fix it. The Eagles are a good team. Very well balanced and very well coached. They haven't been tested much this season, but in the end it might not matter.

There are two ways to win in the NFL: 1. Have more talent than your opponent 2. Have a better gameplan than your opponent The problem the Bills have is very simple... They always rely on #1. Our coaching staff is great at teaching fundamentals. Preparation. Knowing your assignment. Being in the right place on the field. The scheme is pretty basic and doesn't change much from week-to-week, season-to-season. Their philosophy is that if the team executes at a high level and avoids mistakes, they should walk out of the game with a victory. That strategy has worked pretty well over the course of a 17-game season, because the Bills do have a pretty talented roster. But once you hit the playoffs, the talent gap shrinks. The Bills don't have a significantly more talented roster than Kansas City or Cincinnati. Even our superstar quarterback really gives us no advantage over the other team. We can't just line up on the ball and execute. At that point, we MUST use specific strategies to attack our opponent's tendencies and weaknesses. You could see it clearly yesterday. The Chiefs did everything in their power to confuse and overwhelm the Bengals inexperienced O-Line. They jammed the receivers, to make sure Joe Burrow didn't have quick/easy throws and HAD to stand in the pocket. It didn't completely shut him down, but it did enough to kill several drives and help them win the game. The Bills (of course) just lined up 4 rushers most of the game, asked them to beat the guy across from them in 2 seconds, and then gave a 10 yard cushion to the receivers.

All-Pro caliber: Tre White Matt Milano Josh Allen Pro-Bowl caliber: Tremaine Edmunds

More than one thing can be true. Gabe Davis had a chance to grab ahold of the #2 spot, and literally watched it slip through his hands. He's a solid NFL receiver. But we need someone more consistent opposite Stefon Diggs. That person is probably not John Brown anymore. Isaiah McKenzie got the chance to be more than a gadget guy, and was not reliable enough to handle the slot. We could have replaced him with Jamison Crowder, but he got hurt and is already a free agent. Cole Beasley showed flashes, but I'm not sure he can handle an entire season anymore. You can see potential in Khalil Shakir, but I think we just saw the risk of counting on an inexperienced player to fill a big starting role. Ken Dorsey and Brandon Beane need to sit-down for several meetings, and figure out the identity of this offense moving forward. Our front office acquired a bunch of short-range options (Crowder, OJ Howard, James Cook, Shakir, Nyheim Hines, Beasley) and then watched the Offensive Coordinator design everything to attack downfield. Either we need to adjust the scheme to take advantage of these players, or we need to obtain weapons that fit a downfield attack.

The Bills championship window has been open for 3 years now, and each year has shown the exact same trend: 1. Both the offense and defense rank Top 5 in the NFL during the regular season 2. Facing an elite QB in the playoffs, the defense totally crumbles to pieces and lets up 30+ points (happened all three years) 3. The offense eventually slumps in the postseason due to poor blocking (happened in two of three years) These are the hills that we must get over, in order to win the Super Bowl. Thus far, the front office has seen our pass rush as the solution. That's why we've poured so many resources into the D-Line. After the first Kansas City loss, we drafted Groot/Boogie in the first two rounds. After the second, we signed Von Miller. Neither of these plans worked, and honestly I think our pass rush was worse against Cincinnati than either of the previous two games. It's time to go the other route, and work on improving the O-Line. If we continue to pour resources into the defense and they continue to fail us, then we need to give the offense an opportunity. Let them just try to outscore the opposition. Fix the pass blocking and add another downfield weapon, and I think we can score 30-35 against the best teams in the league. Besides, if Josh Allen is the most important piece on the team, we need to ensure he stays healthy.

I'm a defense guy. But after the last few seasons, I'm coming to agree. Just focus on building the offense. We've had a Top 5 defense for each of the last 4 seasons. Yet they have gotten absolutely destroyed in our final losses over the last 3 postseasons. Their only "good" performance saw them choke away a 16 point lead in the second half. If this is what happens with a Top 5 defense against top quarterbacks, it's absolutely worthless to invest resources into that side of the ball.