hondo in seattle

4,000 is just a convenient benchmark, nothing more. But help me out here... I come to OBD to learn, explore ideas, celebrate, and sometimes commiserate with my brothers and sisters in the Bills mafia. You seem to have another agenda. Maybe I'm getting this wrong but it seems you like to 'prove' that you are 'right' and/or your arguments demonstrate more intellectual rigor. When I (or someone else) disagrees, your stubbornness in hammering your point home and dogged efforts to poke holes in the arguments of others is impressive in a way. In any case, I still don't believe the sky fell when Diggs was traded. Our WR situation is far from ideal, but if Brady is a capable OC (and I hope he is though I'm not convinced yet), he'll find ways to make this offense go. Maybe not at SB level which is the goal and dream, but at least at the playoff level. A bunch of smart jurors sitting in the same courtroom seeing the same evidence often come to different conclusions. Sorry if you disagree with me. Ultimately, it doesn't matter because neither of us will impact what actually happens on the field.

I'm not expecting a Lombardi but I'm not expecting a sh*tshow either. I just don't believe the offense is going to collapse because Diggs has gone. I think/hope the 2024 edition of Joe Brady will be somewhat better than the 2023 version of the Dorsey/Brady show. Let's say Diggs' departure makes our receiving corps 5-10% worse. I think a new & improved Brady (with an entire offseason to implement his concepts) gets us that 5-10%. When Josh Allen is your QB, your offense won't be bad unless your OC is incompetent. And McD has a talent for making lemons with lemonade on defense. I don't think our D will be elite, there's not enough talent, but it will be fundamentally sound. And I think that gets us into the playoffs where anything can happen. That's what I think will happen. But my two biggest uncertainties are: (1) Joe Brady and (2) the wideouts. Both could turn out better - or worse - than I expect. We'll see.

For the next several years, I think we find inexpensive vets to be our backups. And then when Josh is in his mid-thirties, maybe, we draft and start grooming a young successor. It depends a lot on Josh - both how well he stays in shape physically, and mentally how long he wants to play.

Fair enough. But he still threw for over 4,000 yards and won a Super Bowl. If that's the kind of decline we are gonna see in Buffalo, I'll take it.

If Josh gets injured? Then no.

Good QBs can't elevate just anybody. And they won't elevate everyone - there aren't enough targets to go around. But Josh has thrown for over 4,000 yards for the past four consecutive years, despite a revolving door of receivers. Mahomes has thrown for over 4,000 yards six consecutive seasons despite his own revolving door of receivers including the loss of Tyreek Hill. In his prime, Brees had 12 consecutive years of 4k with a bunch of different receivers coming and going. If Josh gets 4k again this year, and I think he will, someone has to catch those balls. Between Samuel, Kincaid, and Shakir - at least one of those is going to have a career year and maybe more than one.

Supposedly, Brady made significant tweaks to the offense. Combining that with the fact that Diggs and Davis are gone, it's not unreasonable to believe that Shakir and Kincaid will be used somewhat differently this year, and produce differently. I wouldn't expect their catches, yards, average depth of target, yards per catch, etc., to be the same. Then again, I don't know what to expect. I wasn't at all impressed with Brady's debut last year. But he's made some confident and interesting remarks about the upcoming year while keeping the specifics close to his vest. Allen, too, seems jazzed by the changes but Allen also seems like the kind of guy who'll enthusiastically support anything his coaches say & do. With a new(ish) OC, new playbook, and new receivers, it's hard to project the upcoming year. But Josh is so talented that I think he can make mediocre wideouts look good. I'd be surprised if he didn't surpass 4,000 yards again. I would not be surprised if surpassed 4,500 despite Diggs' departure.

I like McD but don't deny this is a concern. Quarterbacks can flourish under defensive-minded HCs. Brady did fine under Belichick. But usually for this to work, the HC needs to find a good OC. McD is on his 4th OC. That's gotta be hard on Josh. Only 1 of the 4 was successful - though the book on Brady is still open. Then again, even Daboll had his shortcomings. McD's problems with OC, and Beane's various shortcomings at offensive roster building, haven't created the ideal environment for Josh to thrive. McD needs to find his offensive Spags. Hopefully, Brady proves to be The Guy. And maybe next year Beane upgrades the WR and OL rooms.

I'm not sure where the confusion lies. Yes, as a fan and observer, I thought Shakir and Kincaid were the best receivers on the Bills at the end of last season. And if you look at catch % and separation stats, some of these metrics tell the same story. That doesn't mean Brady ran his offense through them and leaned on them last year as much as he will this year. Obviously, production goes up and down over time. No player stays at the same level of productivity perpetually. I expect their production to go up this year. You don't agree. That's okay. You are right about this: if their productivity does not go up, our passing game is in trouble.

Last season, Shakir and Kincaid were not the "top weapons" - not schematically. The passing game tended to revolve around Diggs. I expect their targets and production will go up this year. And if that doesn't happen, we're in trouble.

Gunner said "Bold" so here I go: Josh passes for more than 4,500 yards and earns MVP honors. Bills finally beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards. Coleman starts the season slow but establishes himself as a legit starter in the 2nd half of the season.

Maybe my memory is faulty but why does it seem our star defensive players (Tre, Milano, Von) are the ones who keep getting major injuries? I don't want anyone to be hurt, but why don't our scrubs end up on IR instead? As much as we worship at the altar, the Gridiron Gods seem to have it in for us.

Yeah, GB, that's the fear. A look at 2023separation: Kincaid 4.1 Shakir 3.8 Diggs 2.8 Davis 2.8 What I want is for that list to tell me is that we lost the right guys. Kincaid and Shakir got more open than Diggs and Davis and gave Josh easier completions. But that might not be the case. First of all, separation is a wonky, subjective stat. Secondly, Diggs attracted more defensive attention than Kincaid or Shakir. Still, I do find the separation stats a bit encouraging, maybe because I'm a homer. And the homer in me hopes the tweaks Brady is adding to the offense compensate for Diggs' departure.

I like and respect McD. But Reid is probably a better offensive mind than McD is a defensive mind. Both are pretty good at offseason preparation, building teamwork, getting a team to execute, etc. Where Reid has a big advantage is with the coordinator on the other side of the ball. McD is on his 4th OC, still searching for the right guy. Hopefully, Brady proves to be the one. Reid and Spags are a dynamic duo. Both are strong at what they do. Best 1-2 coaching pairing in the league. The Reid-Spags-Mahomes combo is (sadly) special. We'd have a Lombardi by now if not for them.

Production has a lot to do with scheme and targets. Last year's scheme was built around Diggs and Davis, mostly Diggs. I think you'll see Shakir's production go up this year. Probably Kincaid's too. People will fill the void. If you look at catch rate and separation stats, you could make a strong argument that Kincaid and Shakir were better receivers than Diggs and Davis last year. Let's see how they do with more opportunity. I wouldn't say I'm supremely confident, but I'm definitely not pessimistic. More just curious.

I'm not sure it's better. I hope it is. I'm confident it's not significantly worse. At the end of last year, Diggs was mediocre and Davis struggled to gain separation all season long. The best receivers at the end of the season were Kincaid and Shakir and they're both still on the team.

This is an interesting assertion and maybe there's some truth in it. WR production is often as much about scheme and QB play as it is about the talent of the WR. Maybe putting Samuel in Brady's scheme with Josh under center will turn him into a star. When I was in high school, we had two total coaches for the whole team, O and D combined. Both coaches had played line in college. As a receiver, I received no coaching on how to beat press coverage, which foot to cut from, how to find the soft spot in a zone, or any of that. My daughter's high school had five coaches... just for receivers. Something like thirty coaches for the whole team, not to mention 6 strength & conditioning coaches. And kids these days go to football camps in the summer which I never did. In other words, the guys who make it to the NFL nowadays are all - to a greater or lesser extent - genetically superior, well-conditioned, and masters of their craft. It's kind of like the men's 100m final at the Olympics where the winner was only 1.2% faster than the last-place finisher. In some fields of athletic endeavor, there's not a lot of difference between the top guys. I do believe, however, that there is a big difference between the NFL's #1 best WR and #30 best receiver. But not so much between #10 and #40. So maybe our wideout group is 3% worse than the better groups in the NFL. Brady's scheme and Josh's arm will - hopefully - compensate.

My Negative Nancy side thinks this: It's not good when you're a passing team and your starting RB can't catch and neither can the guy you brought in to be your speedster/deep threat. But I have some thoughts about Nancy's negativity. Cook had some critical drops last season. But his catch rate (81.5%) was actually above average for a RB. Maybe because his big-moment failures stick in my memory, I'm underestimating his hands. And maybe there's a little confirmation bias going on. I'm noticing every drop, even the ones reported from the practice field, and saying, "Ah. That confirms it. He's a mutant who was born with hands of stone."

You're right. I didn't mean to paint all CEO's with a single brush stroke. That long ago conversation left a lasting impression on me. Yet, actual CEOs I've known have had very diverse leadership philosophies - some quite admirable. You're also right about Terry. He's a smart guy. Whatever he may have said, what he probably meant was that he hoped to get more leadership out of Josh. You were lucky to have such a good boss. Sadly, there are some bad ones out there, too.

You may be right. Maybe Milton would have been a better choice - if he was available. But Trubisky had three mediocre 3,000+ yard seasons. In other words, he's got a lot of NFL gametime experience. And that's good because the 2nd stringer isn't going to get as many reps as the QB1. So you want someone who can take the field in the middle of a game without a lot of practice and take control without a gallon of jitters. I also think an experienced vet has more value on the sideline and in meeting rooms than a rookie. If Josh misses an entire season, we're cooked. But if he misses, let's say, four games, we may be able to win two with Mitch - enough to keep us in the playoff race.

In 2018, he threw for 3,000+ yards in 14 games with a passer rating of 95.4 and a QBR of 71. He's not entirely devoid of talent. But I heard a scout once explain the poor hit rate with QBs. According to him, no college QBs are truly NFL-ready. So you have to guess who will improve their mental skills (schemes, pre-snap reads, leadership, etc.) as well as their physical skills. Part of this is psychology: Who's going to avoid the distractions that come with fame and money and do the work? It's all guesswork. Educated guesswork, to be sure, but still fraught with uncertainty. For whatever reason, Chicago seemed to expect more growth from Trubisky than he delivered.

I followed that link and saw "Mansfield Wrotto" was listed as our starting RT. I have no recollection of this guy. Zero. I looked him up and he only played 3 years in the NFL but started 7 games for the Bills in 2010. He left no lasting impression on me. I didn't think any former Bills starter over the best few decades would be obscure to me.

I agree with Doc Brown about this being a cap allocation issue. Just look at our WR room and its lack of big names. While I'm not super negative on this group, we'd have an established star in there if we hadn't started the season in Cap Hell. I don't think Beane wants to pay a lot for a QB insurance policy when he hasn't (yet) built a SB quality roster of starters. As for third string, I want a guy who's smart, gets along with his teammates, and says intelligent, productive things in QB meetings. I don't care if has a noodle arm because if we're down to our 3rd stringer, we're screwed anyway. Josh is the alpha and omega of our offense.

When I first saw this post, it brought up an old memory. I work in the restaurant industry. And I was once told about a retired Marine Gunnery Sergeant who was now working as the General Manager of a fast food restaurant. He was failing which I thought was odd since I have a lot of respect for gunnery sergeants. So I went to talk to the guy to see what was going wrong. To my dismay, I discovered he didn't know how to prep food, take orders, make orders, or much of anything else. I told him he was violating atleast two of the military's 11 Principles of Leadership: "Lead by example," and "Be technically and tactically proficient." He didn't know squat and hung out in his office all day. His counterargument went something like this, "Here's how I think about it. I'm the CEO of multimillion dollar business. Maria is my VP of Operation and Jacob is my Comptroller. CEOs delegate. They don't do grunt work." No wonder he was failing! I've hated the CEO model of leadership ever since. If Terry really said Josh should be like a CEO, he was wrong. Josh shouldn't be aloof from the grunts. Instead, he should be like a good Marine NCO and roll up his sleeves to work alongside them but, at the same time, demanding teamwork, effort, and flawless execution.

Tillman & Kalsu