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Everything posted by hondo in seattle
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You and I can judge a good QB without ever having played QB at the NFL. But Dan Orlovsky, who did play in the NFL, can analyze QBs better than either of us despite having never been a great QB himself. Tannebaum and Spielman are Dan Orlovsky. Tannebaum spent 22 years as a personnel guy in the league, got promoted a few times, and two teams thought he was capable and smart enough to be a GM or VP. (If we're counting, zero teams have thought you or I were capable or smart enough to be GM). After his retiring from football as a player, Rick Spielman went to work as a scout, earned promotions through his good work, and eventually became a VP and GM. He has roughly 30 years of personnel experience. They might not know how to build a winning organization as well as, for example, Bill Polian. But together they undoubtedly have lots of contacts throughout the league who will give them insider intel on all the candidates. They're fully capable of their assigned role: "help identify and vet candidates in addition to coordinate interviews."
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I'm not sure why this is a "absolute joke." Some owners handle the search themselves. I'll guess Spielman and Tannebaum together know more about football coaches and GMs just about any owner. Some critics may point out that their credentials are weak considering they both ended their GM careers in failure. But, then again, look at us fans. We always know with certainty who should be the GM and coach of our favorite team and we have no experience or insider knowledge whatsoever.
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The Ravens are the team I worry most about. Our defense is built to stop the pass, not stop power backs like Henry. And we can't compensate for our weakness but stacking the box because they can throw too. I actually worry about every game because our roster isn't spectacularly better than any other roster we'll face in the playoffs.
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My dog, sitting beside me as I type this, agrees.
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I'm thinking of skipping football entirely this weekend and instead taking my dog mountain biking or for a walk on the beach. Or meditating at a Zen monastery in the mountains. It may be sacrilege to say this here, but there's more to life than football. At least on a non-Bills weekend.
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Some Bills fans had excuses after 13 seconds. Some legit. Some not so much. Some Chief fans had excuses after this past game. Some legit. Some not so much. We're more alike than different. And that's true of Americans in general. But, sadly, we focus on the differences and the things that divide us.
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I don't buy the conspiracy theory that the NFL is fixing games for the Chiefs. It just doesn't make sense to me. The NFL would have too much to lose and too little to gain. The league is a cash cow as it is. A Chiefs three-peat would add very little revenue if any. A cheating conspiracy would sorely damage the league's credibility and cost it untold millions. As for the unconcious bias theory, that might be real. But I think the effect would be very subtle with little influence on win-loss records. Refereeing can be frustrating sometimes. It's probably true that bad calls even out over time. But in a one-and-done playoff system, a single bad call can ruin a team's chance to win a Lombardi.
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Yikes, indeed. They head-scatchingly bet the farm on Jones as their franchise QB and paid him $40 million per year only to demote him to 3rd (some say 4th) string and have him play practice squad safety the other day in drills. Usually a GM doesn't survive a mistake that monumental. Unless it wasn't Schoen's call.
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My Browns fandom started in (roughly) 1968 when the Browns were the best team in the Century Division and the Cowboys were the best team in the Capitol Division. For youngsters who don't know, the Browns were one of three old NFL teams that moved to the AFC when the NFL and AFL merged in 1970. I agree, I can't root for the Browns when Watson is under center.
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When I was maybe 9 years old, growing up in the suburbs of Buffalo, I turned on the TV looking for cartoons when I came across a Bowns-Cowboys game. It was the first football game I ever watched and since the Browns were losing by double-digits, I rooted for them. Little kids always root for the underdogs. Sure enough, the Browns staged a comeback and I became a devoted Browns fan even before I was a Bills fan. For years, I was a dual Browns-Bills fan until Modell betrayed Cleveland and moved the team away. From that point on, I've been a monogamous, loyal Bills fan. But I gotta say, I'm beginning to love the Browns again after they gave us Coop and beat the Ravens and Steelers. And I'll be cheering them as enthusiastically as if I was a lifetime member of the Dawg Pound when they play Mahomes!
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I have to disagree. I was at Arrowhead with my family in our Bills gear a couple years ago when we trounced the Chief 38-20. The Chief fans I interacted with were universally classy and often complimentary of Josh Allen and the Bills team in general - despite whatever sour feelings they were experiencing because of the blowout. Like very fan base, there's a bell curve of KC fans with some bottom feeders that may be "insufferable." But at the stadium that day, I witnessed only good sportsmanship.
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Holy crap, I hadn't seen this angle/replay and hadn't realized the Chiefs rushed 7. Thanks for posting. Yeah, Davis does a fine job but Torrence is a beast. I also watched Baldinger's video on how Torrence, working solo, manhandled Chris Jones.
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Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV
hondo in seattle replied to JGMcD2's topic in The Stadium Wall
This is impressive work, @JGMcD2! Because it's based on PFR's "Approximate Value," the scoring can only be deemed approximate. PFR admits that it's methodology is imperfect. One thing I don't like is that a player's approximate value is partially determined by the team's offensive or defensive performance. If McD is a good coach who gets his team to perform well, then his players scores go up. So it becomes hard to disentangle how much Beane's score represents his good work and how much it's determined by the good work of the coaching staff. But's that the case in 'real life' (as opposed to world of analytics) as well. Despite the shortcomings, this is a better system of evaluating drafts than I've seen elsewhere. For those interested, PFR explains their methodology behind Approximate Value here: www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm -
Not so epic Nathan Peterman game.
hondo in seattle replied to MphsBillsfan's topic in The Stadium Wall
When I watched that game, I thought I was witnessing the premature end of Peterman's career. He was so awful, I couldn't imagine another team wanting him, even as a PS player. Yet, 7 years later, he's still hanging around. -
How many times have you watched Josh's run?
hondo in seattle replied to Success's topic in The Stadium Wall
Interesting breakdown from some KC guys... -
I remember thinking during the 13-second game that it was the greatest game I ever watched. In retrospect, I don't evaluate it quite the same way anymore. I hope you find what you're looking for but - personally - I never want to see that game again.
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Ranking Bills Coordinators (McDermott Era)
hondo in seattle replied to BillsFan130's topic in The Stadium Wall
With all our OCs, I've had these kinds of thoughts... "What the heck is the game plan here? What weakness in the opponent are they trying to exploit? What strength of ours are they trying to leverage? There doesn't seem to be a plan at all - just random plays." After the Ravens debacle, I had lost hope in Brady. But he's been steadily winning me over since then. Hopefully, the best is yet to come. The things I liked about Dorsey were the continuity and his comfort level with Josh. But that was about it - I was never a fan of his or Dennison's. Daboll had his shortcomings but he took this raw kid from a college backwater and - eventually - crafted a potent passing attack. I'm grateful for what Daboll accomplished but wouldn't want him back. -
I like Rex. I think he's interesting to listen to. And with a 61-66 record lifetime record, he would make the Jets mediocre again which would be fine for us.
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Part of me feels like it's Allen's turn. I know that's not how it's supposed to work. It's supposed to go to this year's MVP and he's certainly in the conversation just based on his play this season. But Lamar's already won it twice and when you look at all that Allen's done for this franchise, it's inconceivable to me that he hasn't won it already.
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I'm personally not offended. It's just Kermit in a Mahomes jersey. That's not the same as hanging Mahomes in effigy which would be offensive in my mind. On the other hand, some people are offended and that's a problem. Not to be pessimistic, but it seems to me that life sh*ts on all of us enough (illness, old age, letters from the IRS, etc.) that we shouldn't sh*t on each other. Edit: I just read through the entire thread, looked at the image again, and reconsidered my position. Forget any earlier ambivalence... It's offensive.
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Ranking Bills Coordinators (McDermott Era)
hondo in seattle replied to BillsFan130's topic in The Stadium Wall
Agree with much of this. Daboll was the best because he developed Allen from a raw farmboy into a force of nature. Dennison is #4 on the offensive side. He wasn't good. Brady both puzzles & frustrates me. Sometimes his O doesn't look very dynamic and his playcalling is predictable. Josh's YPG is down under Brady and his completion pct. is 5% below his best year. And yet we're the 3rd highest scoring team in the league despite the issues we've had at wideout. I might have to - eventually - rate Brady #1. -
How many times have you watched Josh's run?
hondo in seattle replied to Success's topic in The Stadium Wall
Sometimes when the replay is shown on TV, they don't give the appropriate context. * Regardless of what the scoreboard or box score says, the Chiefs were playing good defense to that point. * It's 4th down and if we don't make the 1st down, the Chiefs win. They'd only need a FG, and they'd be playing with 4 downs. They'd only need to average 2.5 yards/play to sustain a game winning drive. * Casual fans might not know it was not in any way a designed run. Brady expected Spags to be in man coverage and called a man-beater. Spags dialed up a zone instead and Josh was surprised to find no one to throw to. Worse, because the D was in zone, all the defenders were looking at Josh. That run shouldn't have happened. It shouldn't have been possible.