OldTimer1960

DTs often take a couple of years to show their stuff in the NFL and Troup has been healthy only his rookie year. Look, I don't want to completely let the Bills off the hook for the pick, but he has A LOT of what you look for in a DT: strength, effort, reasonable athleticism... Nobody could have predicted that he'd get hurt. Aaron WIlliams falls into the same category as the OL about whom they say "try him at LT until he proves he can't play it and then move him to RT/G". Of course, not all of those guys pan out and it is no certainty that Aaron Williams will be a good safety. But, I think his skills will translate well there - he was a below average cover corner, but should be a good coverage safety and he does play the run with passion. I just choose to "put myself in the Bills' shoes" and give them the benefit of the doubt. I also try to be realistic with regard to the true success rate of picks by round. Even at the top or round 2, you statistically only have about a 65% probability of finding a good 5+ year starter. See the link below for supporting data... http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/draftposition19922011.pdf

Interesting... I think that by far the most important factors of QB success are: * leadership * determination/dedication (the "first in the bldg, last out") * quick decision making - ability to process what he sees and make decisions on where to go with the ball in a split second. * toughness .... * arm strength - MUST have a minimum level for success, but above that it isn't that important. * athletic ability - great to have Cam/RG 3, Kaepernick speed and elusiveness, but nothing without the above. Of course there are other factors, but I believe the above are the main things. Note that most of them are VERY difficult to assess in on-field tape review and even in interviews. It is HARD to find a good QB - that is why so many QB draft picks fail. I know I am counter-arguing my previous post, but Fitz attacked things as a "grown-ass man", but lacked the physical skills to be great. If Fitz had a bit more arm-strength and accuracy, he'd have been a very good starting QB. On the flip-side if Rob Johnson or JP Losman had that quick-decision making ability, they'd have been great - I don't think either lacked drive or effort.

Because there is no need to reflect reality when you are trying to blindly blast the Bills' decision makers! (Note: sarcasm ON. I don't subscribe to the view that the Bills' front-office is inept, stupid, moronic, etc. I happen to think that the current front-office personnel have significantly upgraded the Bills roster talent. Yes, they have "missed" on Torrell Troup - they should have "known" that he would have back problems and Aaron Williams - while this depends on how he does at S, if they'd have called him a Safety when they drafted him folks might not have been blasting this pick as much...)

I agree with the general premise that a first round pick on any position carries risk of not getting a good player, but I do think that some positions are safer bets than others and QB in particular is more risky because more than other positions success depends on intangible qualities including quick decision making, leadership and poise under pressure. It is easier to correlate physical talent to success at most other positions.

Man, where did I say in my post that the Bills must take Nassib or that I am a big Nassib fan? I am trying to be open minded about all of the QB prospects. I am looking for a glimpse of a reason that any of them might succeed at the NFL level. I specifically said that I didn't think that Nassib was a great prospect (I don't think that any of the QBs this year are). FWIW, I agree that he doesn't have great athleticism (neither do many of the top QBs in the NFL including Brady and both Mannings) and I agree that he is not currently a great deep passer - but I think that he does have the arm to improve there - it isn't like he had the weapons at Syracuse to throw deep a lot. I'll also admit that he needs to put better touch on his short passes, but I think he has a strong enough arm to have a chance to succeed in the NFL. All in all, I think Nassib is among the best of a weak QB crop. I don't know if he is the top guy or not, but he is somewhere in the top 5 IMHO.

Ryan Nassib was 2-1 last year against Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) and Matt Barkley. Geno Smith was 0-3 against Syracuse in his career. I know win/loss record doesn't fall solely on the QB, but I think it has to be considered... Note, I am not saying Nassib is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I think many here under-rate him. I will not be surprised if he is picked in the 1st round or early 2nd.

We are about on the same page, I think. IF they think one of them is a good prospect to be a good NFL starter, I wouldn't mess around with any trade down - I'd just take him at 8. If they don't think so, then a 2nd or 3rd round pick on someone who they think has some possibility of becoming a good NFL starter is fine by me. I just don't want to seen them "force" a pick early on someone who has a lot of negatives. FWIW, I don't have a rational reason beyond him failing to lead his team to more wins and his inability to beat Syracuse, but I don't like Geno Smith. I could be on board with Manuel or Nassib in the first. I just don't see Nassib as the 3rd round prospect that so many here say he is. I see enough arm and a lot of competitiveness. He was also 2-1 this year against Geno Smith, Matt Barkley and Teddy Bridgewater - leading a huge underdog Syracuse team to an upset of highly ranked Louisville.

It is common for college team's to put their best (OL) athletes at OT. Some of those might guys might not be good enough to stay at OT in the NFL (maybe not fast or quick enough), but are still better athletes than most of the OG-only candidates coming out of college. I expect both Hairston and Sanders to get a shot at the open OG spot.

With recognition that QB IS the most important position, I think this argument doesn't go deep enough. I fully agree that they need a young QB that they believe can sooner or later become a good starter. I agree that they need to look very closely at the available QB prospects this year (and every year until they find a good one). By all appearances, the Bills are doing just that - they have interviewed/worked out basically every QB in this draft that has a pulse. I also agree with pretty much everyone on here, that IF they think that there is a QB in this draft that has a good chance to become a good starter then they should draft him. I'll go a step further and say that if they believe that, then they should spend their 8th pick on that guy. If they feel that there is a good starter in this draft they shouldn't be messing around with trade downs in round 1 or trade ups in round 2 to "match value with the pick" - because any good starting QB in the NFL is by definition worth a high pick. Where my view differs from yours is that, if after all of their due diligence they still don't feel that any of the QBs in this draft are very likely to become a good NFL starter, then I don't see any value at all in spending a high draft pick on one. There are, of course, shades of gray to that. If there is a guy who they think *might* be a good starter if he can overcome some limitations or inexperience, then 2nd round on makes sense to take that chance.

In short passing game, I think Barkley is the best/most accurate. I'd pick Nassib or Manuel next for that kind of game. I am no fan of Geno

If they don't plan to move Aaron Williams to safety (as I expect they will), then I agree that safety becomes a higher priority in the draft - but still not before the 3rd in my opinion. I do believe that Williams will be playing safety or splitting time between CB and Safety. He was considered a good candidate to move to Safety when he was in the draft 3 years ago. I suspect they would draft another CB before another Safety and move Williams, but I don't have any inside info to substantiate my thoughts.

I have seen Safety listed as a "need" for the Bills in this draft, but I don't see it as a position that they will address early - unless there is a truly great prospect available. With Byrd at one Safety spot and Searcy in line to compete with (likely) Aaron Williams for the other spot, I think that the top 3 safety spots are in reasonable hands. I could imagine them selecting another safety in rounds 4-7 for depth. The only safety that I see in this draft that could alter that approach (IMHO) would be Kenny Vaccaro and I think it would be a stretch to take him at the 8th pick with much greater needs elsewhere. I don't see another safety that would be a great enough value to trump needs at other positions in rounds 1-3. Opinions/opposing views welcomed.

I've read many times on this board that the Bills' "have very few picks" and "have only 6 picks" in this draft. There are only 7 rounds in the draft and that means that the nominal number of picks is only 7. Further the Bills are only "missing" their 7th round pick - a pick that occurs after approximately 200 players have been selected. There will be approximately 25 picks after that missing pick in the entire draft. I see this as no great loss. They received a viable backup QB possibility (Tarvaris Jackson) for that 7th round pick. Odds are reasonable that whomever they could have selected with that pick wouldn't have the career that TJax has already had. 25ish more players will be selected after that missing pick and then the Bills are on equal footing with all other teams competing for undrafted free agents. I just don't see this as the issue it has been made out to be. Comments/opposing views welcomed.

I would not touch Bray before round 4. He had 2 OUTSTANDING WRs and really did not excel. Between Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, he had a better set of WRs than he is likely to see in the NFL. Now, I understand that he might have the best "arm talent" in the class, but what makes him likely to improve in the NFL against better competition with lesser WRs?

I think that the only thing that changes is the media catching on to what the NFL really thinks of these players. The media then adjusts their ratings and it looks like the player's stock is "rising" or "falling".

I don't fully agree with your assessment of Nassib's arm strength. I think he has a pretty solid arm - not great, but pretty good. I'll admit that he isn't very mobile, but not all (or even most) top QBs are very mobile. His intensity, drive, effort and football intelligence is reportedly quite high and I believe that is very important. I also put some stock into the fact that he was a major reason for Syracuse rising from laughing stock to reasonable football program. That has to count for something. I also admit that I like Russ Lande's draft analyses and he has Nassib rated highly. Lande has been a NFL scout and is now Director of College Scouting for Montreal of the CFL. No scout is always right, but he has to be afforded some credibility for his past and current pro football jobs. BTW, he had Colin Kaepernick rated as a 1st round pick when few others did.

+1

I love following the draft, too. As with all who follow the draft fanatically, I had had favorite players in the draft who turned out to be good - and others that I was shocked at how little they did in the NFL. My perspective is that it is not just the Bills' scouts who passed on Kaepernick and Wilson - and these guys really are outliers as most 2nd round QBs really don't turn out to be good starters. It wasn't like no other teams had a need for a QB. I agree that they missed great opportunities with Kaepernick and Wilson. So, who is that QB this year?

Completely agree.

Do you think that the other QB's TD-INT ratio might have been as good or better in that offense with two very highly regarded NFL prospects at WR? I am admittedly not a Geno Smith fan, though I can respect his reported good work-ethic, intelligence and good arm/athleticism. I just think that there is something missing about him - I could be really wrong about that, but I'd like him a lot more if he led his team to a better record...

No doubt, not intending to excuse the Maybin pick. My only point was that not all draft classes are chock full of great players. Some classes are downright poor.

I don't really understand your point? Are you saying that there are lots of opinions (good and bad) on Geno Smith and that the truth is in the eye of the beholder? Or are you saying that because Smith was once-hyped as a certain high pick and best QB available, that you won't consider changing your opinion when someone who has at least scouted and been an NFL GM for years has a contrary opinion? FWIW, Casserly and former NFL scouts Daniel Jeremiah and Russ Lande are all not very high on Geno Smith.

But it is a person who has considerable experience as a scout and NFL GM.

Have a look at the top 10 selections in the 2009 draft and tell me that the Bills were the only "stupid" team when they picked Aron Maybin. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/What-happened-here.html Knowshown Moreno, Larry English and Robert Ayers were also picked shortly after Maybin. My point is that some drafts are weak, some are strong and overall the "hit rate even among first rounders isn't as high as many think.

Way better options (IMHO) than the QBs available...