OldTimer1960

I am just saying that I wouldn't take him before the 4th. I agree that some team may very well think that they can teach him to be a good NFL QB. QB is harder to learn than any other position by a significant margin. My view is that it is very difficult to learn to play QB in the NFL - especially if you don't even have much experience at the college level. I would stay away from him.

Everything I've read lists him as a NT and/or DT

Watching all of Cardale Jones' passes wouldn't take very long. I know that he is tantalizingly physically talented, but there really is not much game film to watch. I think it would be really hard to take someone with so little experience before the 4th round.

He would have to bulk up to look like a TE.

I'm not sure that using the Patriots as evidence that this is a great strategy allow us to conclude anything. Through their recent run of dominance it has always been "Tom Brady and his supporting cast". It is hard to think that the supporting cast would have had anywhere the same level of success without Brady. Sure, Gronkowski would be a star on any team, but do you think that Wes Welker or Julian Edleman would have had the same careers without Brady? Trading back and acquiring extra picks can be a good strategy, but it is not as absolute as some are making it out. Sometimes there are some real stars at the top of a draft and a considerable drop off in talent after that - in those cases it might be wise to stay put and take one of the elite talents. Of course, if it is such a good idea to trade back, then how would you ever find a partner gullible enough to trade with you? One more point on NE, at the peak of their dynasty they were good at finding teams that would trade next year's n-1 round pick for NEs pick at the end of round N this year. They did make a lot of hay trading away picks at the end of a given round in the current year for a pick one round earlier next year - sometimes the next year pick ended up being almost 2 full rounds better (eg trade this year's late 2nd for a taem's 2017 1st and then that team does poorly and NE ended up wit a mid first). It infuriated me that NE seemed to find some willing to do that and that the Pats were in a position of enough strength to be able to afford to go without some picks this year in return for better picks in the future

I remember that it used to be a pretty safe pick taking an OL early. I think some of the college spread offenses and the NFL's rule changes to favor more passing have made it harder to project OL from college to pros. I also think that the need to pass block more in the pros pits more stress on OL than in the past

Arizona (where Buchannon plays) has a 260 lb OLB on one side and a 270+ OLB on the other. I think you have to have some size on the field or teams will run you over on the ground. I am not saying that there isn't a fit in the NFL for Cravens, but if you have him playing ILB, you ought to have some othenBIG LBs. The Cards are playing 5 DL-sized guys on D and also have a HUGE 219lb CB in Patrick Peterson on the field.

at 215-225? That is quite outside the prototype. Doesn't mean he can't succeed, but where does the inside run D come from?

I might be way off-base here, but I think this is a big projection to think he can play 3-4 OLB in the NFL at between 215-225lbs. Unless they are planning to move him back to safety, I don't know what the Bills would do with him. Maybe he can play OLB in a 4-3. Aaron Maybin was considerably taller and probably as athletic, but he couldn't carry the necessary weight. I have concerns that Cravens won't be able to, either (at several inches shorter than Maybin).

I am not sure that is true. There have been some tremendous players drafted after the early first round - into later rounds - think Tom Brady, Shady McCoy, etc, but the probability of hitting a tremendous player - or a good starter - goes down the later in the draft you go.

Are you implying that Taylor would be willing to sign a "small" starting QB contract now (like the one the Bills gave Fitzpatrick - it was "half-in"/show us and we'll give you a bigger raise)? I think Taylor might like his chances of showing improvement this year and earning a much bigger long-term deal after the season. I don't think the Bills have seen enough to pay him close enough to what he might earn with a big year, so there could be an impasse. For the Bills part, if they don't sign him now and he plays really well the first half of the year, they will work to pay him what he will have earned, before he hits free agency. I don't think he wants to sign a low-level-starter contract now and I don't think he will be so mad at the Bills for "not believing in him" that he won't sign a big contract with them - if he earns it. I think if Taylor shows well early next season, the Bills will be fine with paying him a big deal.

He is quite outside of the normal physical parameters for a 3-4 DL. Shorter, lighter and much less stout than a "standard" 3-4 DL, especially at NT. Given that the current coaching staff is for the most part committed to a specific scheme, drafting a talented DL that doesn't fit there scheme would be a bad idea. I'd like to believe that they could take a talented player like Day and find a way to use him, but I don't think that is how this staff operates. I think they believe in their scheme, even if it means taking a "differently-talented" player that better matches what they want to do on defense. I don't mean to sound too down on this topic, because you sort of have to run some sort of scheme - narrow or more broad, still you are looking for specific talents to fill the roles in that scheme. Pete Carroll had his vision of what defensive scheme he wanted to run and he brought in players to fit it - and they have been very successful. BB in NE has feasted on players that other teams didn't want, but fit his scheme.

Your percentages of a hit per pitch go down with later picks.

This is an important perspective. Many here think it is only the Bills who miss on first round picks - pointing to EJ Manuel as some kind of egregious error that no other team would have made. The hit rate drops quickly after the first round,too. IIRC, there is only about a 25% chance of getting a good starter by round 3.

I am with you up to the stud LB preference. I don't see a good LB option that will be available to the Bills at pick 19. Darron Lee and Leonard Floyd look to be under powered options and Reggie Ragland looks like a run-down player only - and a run down player who was out lifted by several DBs at the combine. I am not saying that these LBs might not become ok starters, but I'm not seeing dominant players here. I am seeing some potentially very good DTs that could be available at the 19th pick. Of the LBs, I like Floyd the least - I can remember many of these tall lanky supposed speed rushers that would provide defenses a lot of flexibility who never panned out - think Maybin, Barkeveous Mingo, Deon Jordan etc. I could see Ragland being a valuable run stopper and, possibly, Lee being a good coverage LB, but I'd rather take spend a high pick on a solid big-man on the DL like Jarren Reed, A'shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, etc

Yep - Brady, Manning, Brees - not one of them close in physical ability to Jones, yet they are sure HOFers.

They may be trying to do a long term deal with Glenn and they still need to sign draft picks and undrafted FAs

Wait, when has Joique Bell played for Rex?

Kerley is OK and we could NOT pay Hogan anywhere near $4M/year - though I did like Hogan. Still, a little concerned that the universe of candidates for any opening seems to include only those with connections to Rex.

I meant Darron Lee

I am afraid of both LBs Darron Lee and Leonard Floyd as both are may be under powered for NFL.

I am afraid of both LBs Darren Reed and Leonard Floyd as both are under powered for NFL.

Well, I guess that we'll disagree on this. My recollection is that the option offense was the dominant college offense of the 70s. Colleges run gimmick offenses like the option and spread because there is a lack of pro-style QBs. If there were enough pro-style QBs to go around, then I think more college programs would run pro-style offenses.

I am struggling to get on-board with a WR in round 1. The only one I would like is Treadwell for his size, production, hands and blocking ability. Even with him, I have reservations about investing too much in the WR position - especially with a not-sure-thing QB going into next season. I still like Robert Woods' receiving and blocking ability.

While I agree that LB is a need position, I am not groovin' on the prospects that may be available this year. Lee from Ohio State is a pumped up Safety, Ragland is big, but not particularly strong if you believe BP reps mean much - plenty of DBs out-lifted him. The Georgia OLB doesn't interest me as an undersized guy who gained weight for the combine. I'd look later than Round 1 for a LB prospect with, what I expect to be, much better DT and DL prospects available.