OldTimer1960

Gruden seemed to be the designated "negative" guy on just about every pick. Well before the Bills' pick it seemed pretty obvious that it was his role on the broadcast. He kind of needed that to balance out all the positive fluff he spoke about with all his QBs from his academy.

Actually, I forgot to include Bullard in my list. I would be very happy to have him as a DE who can also slide inside on passing downs. I would not pick a K that early - especially one from FLA to come kick in WNY.

I would stay away from Jack (and Jaylin Smith). While the upside is high, you might end up with nothing at all. I would like to see them lean right into the strength of the draft and nab a DL (they plan to play Lawson at OLB) like: Jones, Reed, Robinson, Billings and maybe Dodd or Ogbah. If Ragland is available, I would be happy with him. Correa would be nice as another OLB, but may be redundant with Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson (and Manny Lawson in reserve). I'm not a Big Cravens fan as I am not sure where he would play. I would prefer to bolster the defense before looking at offense, primarily because I think the BPA will be on defense. I don't think Cook or Hackenberg are the answer at QB, but they each have enough talent to consider. There might be a WR available that could help, but they likely won't be as good a prospect as several who could be available on D. I think they plan to play Lawson at OLB and I'm not sure Perry or Cravens would be good ILBs (though I know others think that Cravens is a great fit at WILB).

I think that your expectations that all first round draft choices should be Pro-Bowlers 3-5 times in their career is more than just a bit unrealistic. A team is doing well to get a good starting player in round 1. Yes, you hope that you can find a great player, but those are much more rare than you might expect.

I am not a big fan of Cravens, especially in the first. As a LB, he is really undersized and while he is quick, he does not really have elite speed for the position to make up for his lack of size and strength. As a S, he has very marginal speed (4.69) and a below average vertical. He will have to succeed with the mental aspects of the game and pure effort to make a splash in the NFL

Remember that EJ was on there and tested as the most accurate QB they had tested.

I do not know what level of academic intelligence Jones has, but I do believe that there is little correlation between "book smarts" and the ability to quickly see and process what is happening on an athletic field and then react to it - and it is the latter that is more important for a QB. On this, I think Jones' grade is "incomplete" because there just isn't enough game tape to tell. No doubt he has size, athletic ability and a great arm, but does he have the quick mental recognition and will he prepare like a pro? I don't think anyone really knows that. It is the lack of available evidence that would cause me to avoid him before round 3. I would have to think very hard to take him in round 3, but I think the risk/reward ratio is OK there.

I am not totally opposed to Ragland, but I worry that he looked better than he is because he was kept clean playing behind 2 other 1st round picks at DT in Robinson and Reed. Most NFL teams don't have a DT tandem as good as that pair.

I've watched some more of Cook's play and I can see some of what people are talking about. He is a smooth thrower and can seemingly get the ball out quickly when needed. But then there are those throws that make you say ugh! For sure, I would take him earlier than I would consider drafting Cardale Jones. He has some talent, but is he worth a mid 1st round pick? He looks to be a possible good starting QB, but by no means is he a sure thing. He could get in the league and eventually ascend to a starter or he could end up as a wash out who doesn't have the accuracy to make it in the league. Something that I did notice is that he doesn't seem afraid to throw into tight places. Not everyone is willing to take those chances.

That expectation is Waaaay off. I don't think any of the teams could even remotely com close to what the 1st round will look like.

I'd like him as a Safety that can *sometimes* play LB in sub-packages. I would not be as excited to tab him as a full-time LB. Cravens has said that he prefers Safety. I do wonder if the Bills might roll the dice on Jaylon Smith at 19. If they think that they can get one of the top 2 or 3 players in this class at 19 with the price being to wait until 2017, I could be on-board with that. I know that this team needs immediate help at a number of positions, but if the team doctors think he can make a full recovery by 2017, I would at least consider taking him.

I don't disagree that OL re-inforcements would be helpful, but I take issue with "a tackle 3-5 who needs a some time to develop." I agree that there are a small number of players that can be had in middle-to-late rounds that will become good with some "development' - whether that be coaching, experience or strength development. But the reality is that most mid to late round players are fundamentally lacking the talent to become good starters and most will never "develop" enough to be starters.

I agree with the point that you've made here. He was exposed some in the National Championship and his apparent limitations have shown to be true at the NFL level. Still, he is far better than a lot off 2nd round picks.

He was a 2nd round draft choice, if I recall correctly. I'll take a solid starter in round 2. Sure we want another start in round 2, but that is fairly rare.

But Manti Te'o is doing pretty much OK in the NFL.

Except he completes a low % of his passes. This is supposed to be EJ's fatal flaw, yet Manuel's college completion % was 10 points higher than Cook's. I've seen some video of Cook in which he looks pretty good, but I can't escape his low completion %. Some have argued that he suffered from WR drops and a general lack of talent at the receiver position. If that is true, then it is a fair and mitigating point. I would not hate Cook in round 2, but would be more comfortable with him in round 3. While Tyrod Taylor had a good season last year, you do have to guard against the possibility that last year was his best year. There is the possibility that defenses will clamp down on him now that they have a year's worth of video on him. There are plenty of one-year-wonders at QB in the NFL. A couple that come to mind off the top of my head include Matt Cassell and RG III. I am sure that there are plenty more (for one, Gary Marangi once looked good for the Bills, Trent Edwards, too). I don't know if any of the QBs this year will be good NFL starters and I don't want to invest even a 2nd round pick in someone who doesn't have a significantly higher probability of success than Taylor. However, I do think insurance is needed.

My concern with Cook is with his poor completion %. To compare, EJ Manuel's NFL completion % is higher than Cook's college completion %. Yet people think Manuel is too inaccurate. Almost NO QBs have a higher completion % in the NFL than they did in college.

While over in the Draft QB thread, I am arguing not to take Cardale Jones in the 2nd, I think in round 4 it would be OK. I *might* be able to get onboard w round 3, but that is a stretch, in my opinion. I cut Hackenberg some slack because he played behind such a poor OL. Maybe he would play well if given a better OL and some time to rebuild his confidence. I am not a big fan of Connor Cook, but if there in 3rd, I could understand a shot on him. Prescott later would be OK, too

Manuel 50 yd TD pass to Goodwin: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ao4wNbhH_hc

I just do not think that it can be justified to take Cardale Jones in the second round. He had a nice, not great, 3 game stretch at the end of 2014 when nobody had any film on him and he didn't have to carry a talent-laden Ohio State team. Defenses dared him to beat them. It can be argued that he played very well in those 3 games against good competition, but what happened in 2015 against weak competition to begin the season? 8-5 TD/INT ratio on a very talented Ohio State team with Ezekial Elliot, Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller along with another 1st round pick in Taylor Decker on the OL against not great competition? That is just very hard to explain. I hear the arguments that he was miscast in Meyer's option offense, but he still should have done better against the collection of teams that he faced this year - at least in my opinion. I am not at all confident in EJ Manuel after his 3 years hear, but he has pretty much the same physical tools that Jones has and had a LOT more experience in college with better stats, too. I just can't see spending a mid-2nd round pick on Jones because he seems like such a long-shot to me. I would be hesitant to take him even in round 3. After that, I could get on board with the gamble. Look at it another way, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins were FAR more accomplished in college than Jones was, yet they were 3rd and 4th round picks respectively.

I don't understand the dislike for Gilmore. If the idea is that he will cost so much to keep that he will destroy the Bills salary structure, then I get it. But if the argument is that he isn't very good, then I don't agree.

I think this is a good rational view.

I see it the same way. Nkemdiche has TONS of talent, but guys like him get GMs and coaches fired. Spence seems like he gets it now, but his poorer than expected combine may hold him back. I don't think I'd take Nkemdiche even in round 2.

Man, I watched Lynch against a good Mississippi defense and I didn't see much that would make me think he is a future NFL starting QB.

I am basically there with you. I would take lower ceiling and higher floor over boom or bust. I think that most anyone that will be available by pick 19 has some risk/projection to them.