OldTimer1960

They don’t have that much “draft capital”. They have pick 30 in round 1 and two picks late in round 2. They have 2 picks in the 4th (one fairly early and one near the end). They then have 3 6th rounders (together those might be worth a mid 5th). They may get 1 4th and 1 5th rounder compensatory picks for FA losses last year. So, no 3rd. Almost all of those picks are late in the round that they fall in. For example, their first and both seconds in trade might get them to about pick 11 in round 1. Alternatively, they might be able to trade both late 2nds to get to back end of round 1 (giving them 2 in the first). In the latter case they then would not have a pick for more than two full rounds. in my view, they might be better off trading down out of the first. There is supposedly good value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year and they likely are looking at 2nd round talent anyway at pick 30.

I would like it if they could do that and use early picks on edge and DT - 2 needs and 2 strong areas of the draft.

I think I read that Schwesinger was a walk-on and was so good that UCLA moved their starting MLB to DE to get Schwesinger on the field. That MLB to DE convert was Oluwafemi Oladejo who reports claim improved his stock a lot at the Senior Bowl.

I think Shemar Stewart is going to be very good. He has a lot of power, yet still has notable speed and agility. He might not be a high sack number guy, but he will de disruptive to offenses on passing downs and a killer in run D.

And likely that a CB will be an early pick in the draft.

Definitely addresses some key needs. I suspect that CB has to be addressed earlier than pick 171, but you have some promising players in the early rounds.

Certainly hard to argue that wouldn’t be a great draft. I don’t think Harmon or Paul will make it out of round 2, definitely not past day 2. Your first 3 picks are plausible and great value.

I think you are right and there is a good chance the Bills take a corner in the first. I know Revel is projected higher than 30, but coming off torn ACL, he will be a risk that some teams might not like in the first. If the Bills draft him, they will have to be OK with maybe not playing him until mid-season or later. I know ACL surgery and rehab have come a long way, but CB play puts a lot of stress on the knee. Revel could be a great long-term pick if they have the patience to wait for him to fully heal, but there is some risk he won’t get back to 100% and there is risk with his level of competition in college as well. With Barron, the seeming only question is can he play outside corner full time? He played a lot of nickel prior to this season. I think Gunner believes he can play outside well and Gunner knows his stuff.

Still a long way to go before the draft, but with the college playoffs and all-star games in the book, let's discuss early draft crushes for the Bills. I'll start with a couple: DT TJ Sanders - He's undersized at 6'4" 285-290, but he has really nice quickness and ability to penetrate/rush the passer. I've also seen him effectively use his height to knock down passes at the line. He wouldn't be the replacement for Daquan Jones at 1T, but I think he would look pretty nice next to Oliver on passing downs early. DE Princely Umanmielen - He's not the stoutest run defender, but he does appear to have the speed and length to be a good pass rusher - something the Bills need. I don't think he is a strong consideration in round 1 and he'd likely be gone before the Bills' first pick in round 2, but he looks good to my mostly untrained eyes. There are whispers of character concern for him and his teammate DT Walter Nolen, but I haven't seen what those concerns might be. I firmly believe that the Bills need a CB early, I just don't know who would be a good fit and after the complete whiff on Elam I am worried about going that way again. Who do you like?

A little early to completely write Coleman off as a bust, but I would not count on him either. Address the offseason as though Coleman isn’t on the team - anything they get out of him next year should be considered a bonus. That said, this looks to be a pretty weak WR draft class. I’m not sure that the top WR in this class would have been in the top 6 last year. I think any receiver that they might find available at end of round 1 will have a ceiling of an average to maybe above average NFL receiver and there will very likely be better defensive players available at each of their first 3 picks, so I’m not holding my breath expecting much WR help this offseason. Agree for the most part and that probably means no WR before the 4th round this year.

Great Lee Evans call. He was so good but held back being on struggling teams.

I think if he was decent, he would have played more and been more productive. Daniel Jones wasn’t the answer at QB, but he wasn’t so bad that he held Hyatt back.

Coleman can sit - he showed some flashes, but was non-existent after Poyer lit him up. Ugh - speed alone doesn’t make a WR. His 8 catches for 62 yards this year don’t warrant trading anything of value. If they would take one of the Bills’ 6ths then maybe. Probably would have to take him by end of 2nd given Bills don’t pick again until the 4th and that feels too high for him.

Not crazy about Walker - I don’t know if he is really the dominant run defender that his size suggests. Sawyer end of 2nd is nice, but he’s will probably be gone before that. Good run defender who can get effort sacks. CB and S are surely needs. I would guess Winston is gone before that pick. I like Bech, but after his Senior Bowl, I think he will go considerably earlier.

Like it a lot if Morrison is healthy. Really think DE is a big need though and there should be someone worth a pick there at 30 or either 2nds. Still, hard to quarrel with CB, WR, DT and I particularly like Collins as a run stuffer in the middle. Like the idea, but would switch out Williams from Ohio State for something else.

While the team certainly needs better WR than they have now, not sure I would trade that much for either of those 2. Love the stout build and running ability of Burden, but is he even a decent route runner at this point and does he need to play slot or maybe Z? Love Egbuka’s route running, but he’s not a deep threat and seems to operate away from the bonundary. Bills already have guys to play in middle of the field with Shakir and Kincaid/Knox.

Thank you Gunner for the thorough and detailed analysis and projections. I love reading your insights. Preface my comments with I am not anywhere near as good at understanding what I see on game cut-ups as you and a few others here. Harmon seems to be getting a lot of buzz and I think DT is a big need. I totally agree that a DE is a huge need and I expect they will take one with one of their first 3 picks. My mental picture of Tuimoloau is a good run defending edge - does he offer enough pass rush ability (developed or even upside) to be more than just a body in their rotation? How does JT compare to AJ Epenesa before the Bills made Epenesa drop a bunch of weight? I admit that I am just down overall on the WR class (and maybe without reason). With Isaiah Bond, I really wonder why he didn’t produce more with Ewers and Manning at QB. Whenever I tuned in to a Texas game to see him, he seemed to be in hiding. For his speed and quickness with a good team, 34 catches leaves me a little worried especially given he totaled 2 catches for 30 yards in his last 4 games (Texas A&M, Georgia, Arizona State, Ohio State). Late 2nd seems ok, I guess.

Your point 2 really hits home with me. It seemed almost guaranteed that the opposition would score on their first possession.

I don’t think that it’s right to evaluate a coach when the defensive talent had taken a step back. Lost Poyer, Hyde, missed Milano for much of the season. They are not deep enough in the secondary and Miller’s injury did in the plan to swing for the fences. I am not saying that Babich is good or bad. I think he should receive an incomplete grade for the season.

156lbs - maybe for a part-time player, but I don’t think I’d spend even a 2nd on him.

I think you’re right here. I really didn’t like the Coleman pick, but he showed a little by mid-season and then got destroyed by Poyer against Miami. He was not heard from again and I would not count on him for much next year. They need receiver help, but it looks like a real down year in the draft for the position. I don’t see a WR that will be available late round 1 that would be worth picking there unless they are willing to draft another guy who is best out of the slot. It seems likely that the DEs available at end of round 1 will be better prospects than any available WR.

Yes, resources need to be applied to D and we still need WR help. I think too soon to call either Kincaid or Coleman busts, but I agree that early returns haven’t been as desired.

I would be one of those “certain posters”. Of course, the ultimate goal is a championship, but that doesn’t mean that they were failures. It’s not binary.

That was admirable - Cooper is a pro. Hope they can retain him.

It was an excellent season (in my opinion) for the Bills. They far exceeded my expectations in what I thought was a reset year. Now it’s time to look forward to FA and the draft. Needs will depend some on what happens in FA, but I am expecting a defense heavy draft. It would not surprise me if their 1st, 2nd and the 2nd they have from the Vikings are CB, DE, DT (not necessarily in that order). WR that can get open would be welcomed, but early reports are that it isn’t a great class and it looks like most of the top prospects are slot guys.