BADOLBILZ

Rice playing like a WR1 for KC was just fact.......there isn't anything subjective about it.........he followed the typical path of young star receivers by getting much better as the season went on and despite a more typical rookie slow start he literally finished 28th in receiving yards amongst NFL WR and then played well in the playoffs continuing to catch nearly 80% of his targets and averaging more yards per game than he did over the course of the regular season. Whether you approach it from how he was trending or just sheer production over high volume over the course of a full season, it's the same conclusion. Not elite, but a WR1 for that team and greater production than a number of teams got from any of their actual WR's. That he played with Patrick Mahomes doesn't change what he was..........anymore than Stefon Diggs not being an All Pro in Minnesota changes that he was one in Buffalo.

You are confused about the point. The Bills CLEARLY didn't draft "horrid" in rounds 1 and 2 during the drought. Criticize their roster construction but not so much the talent of the players. Marshawn Lynch is a borderline HOF'er. Steph Gilmore won NFLDPOY. Nate Clements was briefly the highest paid CB in the NFL. Aaron Schobel was a stud pass rusher. Dareus was an All Pro. Robert Woods was a star. Jairus Byrd was an All Pro. Andy Levitre got a huge second contract. Lee Evans was a excellent. Sammy Watkins got a massive second contract from the Chiefs. Willis McGahee rushed for nearly 10,000 yards. Even Lil' Donte Whitner played in 3 pro bowls. They picked enough good players in rounds 1 and 2. That wasn't the problem. All that draft capital expended and just 1 player(Wood) out of a whopping 38 1st and 2nd round opportunities(37 picks and the 1st traded for Bledsoe) over 17 drafts made a contribution remotely commensurate to the Bills investment in them in the season where they finally got back to the playoffs. Again..........the hit rate for any position in the first 2 rounds is much lower than the casual draft fan realizes. And still, even the minuscule amount the Bills had to show didn't even preclude them from being competitive enough to reach the playoffs. I think there are some clear do's and don'ts with early round picks but neither trading up nor trading back is proven as the smarter play. Doesn't really move the needle much financially either, which is a huge component in NFL decisions. The only argument for trading back is more opportunities should provide more rolls of the dice............but the argument against trading back is that your chances of "hitting" drop notably as you move back.

The O's are the latest to try to copy the Astros tanking model. It's not hard to get into contention that way but it's a lot harder to sustain momentum than it would seem it should be. Cubs did it, won a WS by the skin of their teeth and then quickly faded back into mediocrity and their stars fell to earth and changed teams. The Blue Jays were supposed to be owning the AL by now after their 2017-2019 tanking yielded a team full of sons of former HOF/star players.

I just presume Renfrow is washed. He might not be but two consecutive Isaiah McKenzie-esque seasons from a slot-only receiver should make him a non-option for a team loaded with guys who are best in the slot.

Their approach at the plate is a lot better and they have some lefty bats now..........and Soto has been great. But he was great with the Padres too and it didn't make this kind of difference. The key component, IMO, is still Matt Blake the pitching coach. How they get top of the league ERA production from a bullpen full of castoffs every year is impressive. The organization as a whole gets great pitching results despite never drafting high. He has really saved Hal Steinbrenner's bacon. That team last year should have been like 72-90 as bad as they were offensively and with the pitching injuries. Would not be surprised if Blake gets a managers job next year just so that the organization that gets him can get his eye for pitching.

Yeah won a game last night where they had A LOT of bad ball luck.

Yeah I think Joe Marino listed off the most successful WR to ever measure under 30" arm length and the top of the list was Hunter Renfrow. I mean, Shakir finding sustained success would be a real outlier........but we saw the path to it last year.........as a RAC guy against deep set secondaries.........so it seems likely now, even. Renfrow had 3 good seasons(one really outstanding one) and fell off a cliff. I wouldn't be surprised if Shakir ended up the GOAT of T-Rex armed WR's. He is a bigger/better athlete. And the list of successful WR's with 30" arms isn't a lot longer, fwiw. Arm length has proven to be very important.

I'm not high on that skillset for the Bills in round 2 because they have Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel who are all best used inside as well........but being that he will be a 24 year old rookie it wouldn't shock me if he fell into round 4. At which point he is great value with a high floor. Shakir had some nice numbers and tape and he fell, so I could see Pearsall being that guy in this draft. I'm not a big Ladd McConkey guy either, which I know is blasphemous because he is the route-God to people in this draft. I'm looking more for players with the physicality to excel in the playoffs. Yeah it's such a good draft for OL talent. If the Bills don't get a couple with those 10 picks I will be disappointed. The iron is hot at WR/OL/CB and if you don't take them now you can end up reaching for them in subsequent drafts.

Yeah, I think the sample size is just too small on WR trade-ups by contenders. And also, since the NFL is QB driven there really isn't ANY particular position other than QB that provides big dividends to trade up for. And then there is the argument that tanking for the best QB has resulted in only 1 SB win for THAT team since Peyton Manning went #1 overall in 1998. I think you still want the highest ranked QB despite that, right? The only trade that matches the criteria of a big draft trade up by a contender was Julio Jones. And to put it in perspective, the Bills didn't draft anyone in round 1 who was AS GOOD as Julio Jones between time they selected Bruce Smith until they selected Josh Allen. Over 30 years. So Julio was an absolute grand slam of a pick for Atlanta. Cleveland whiffed on all 5 picks they received in that trade...........but the odds of anyone getting more value than Julio Jones out of those picks they dealt to Cleveland is really low. Less than 50% of 1st rounders even get their 5th year option picked up and closer to only 30% become "solid" NFL starters (per PFF). But even more sobering than those numbers, IMO, was the fact that the Bills missed the playoffs for 17 straight years.........and when they broke that drought there wasn't a Bills 1st or 2nd rounder from ANY of prior 16 years of Bills drafts on the field that day in Jacksonville. Just that same seasons picks. The lesson being that we often over-value 1st round picks by presuming them to become better, more impactful players than they usually are. They are lottery tickets to be used to get stud players at premium positions. Which kinda' supports trading up, even if it feels rich, if you have HOF type conviction on that player. Personally, I like the trade-back idea "on paper" but it's not like that idea always works either. You don't see trades like the Herschell Walker deal where the returns are so outlandish that it's hard to not win those trades.

KC drafted Rice with the hope that he'd be a WR1. You don't draft receivers in the first or second round to be role players unless they project to be extraordinary in a single, important aspect. Like as a deep threat. Rice was a rounded skillset type. The reason you draft any player in round one instead of subsequent rounds is because the hit rate is going to be higher with players deemed good enough to select in round 1. That's the way it works. The Chiefs took 3 swipes with day 2 picks and appear to have only hit on one(so far). The point is, if KC is your model you need an elite target(Kelce) and a WR1(Rice). The Bills have neither, at this point. With Diggs falling off last season the disparity in receiver quality was quite clear in the playoff matchup. The Chiefs offense was explosive and the Bills offense had to rely on executing smaller plays and burning clock. The Bills are in need of a talent infusion at WR. I am not against taking a great pass rusher if one were there but I am not hoping the Bills make a significant trade up at all, myself. They need multiple receivers and should try to come out of this draft with players from the other strong positions.......OL and CB.

Yeah, nothing yet. When I heard he was signed I figured it was a total in-case-of-emergency signing and he would probably retire in TC when it was clear he was totally washed or there was a better young player ahead of him. Like Brandon Shell did.

9-2 is tied with their best start ever. The pitching staff is a bit of a house of cards.........but most teams' are........so those 8 innings from the Hialeah Hedgehog were big.

Saying basketball is played much like it was in the 1970's except for the 3 point line is like saying football is the same except it's not nearly as violent. It's a different, more skilled game. I only really pay attention to the tournament now if my team is in contention for the final 4. The broad interest in the NCAA tournament is even more about gambling than the NFL is. By a lot, IMO. The SB is the SB whether you have a bet on it or not.

Where are the examples of teams that were seen as on the cusp that made a big move for a WR that failed? Bills fans point to the Sammy Watkins trade but that team hadn't made the playoffs in like 14 years and didn't have a QB. The Julio Jones trade ultimately didn't yield a SB WIN.........but he was great and they reached a SB that they probably don't otherwise. Same with the Eagles and TO..........he elevated their game offensively and they got to a SB with him. There just aren't many examples that match the criteria one way or another so it seems like a throwaway kinda' post to hang a hat on. Randy Moss didn't cost much but he helped turn the Patriots from a defense-first team into the top offense in NFL history and got to a SB. OBJ to the same extent did have a huge impact on the Rams winning a SB. Moves for WR's have often paid dividends, in general. I don't have any desire for the Bills to trade up but the idea that it's a proven-bad formula isn't supported.

Rashee Rice is actually a WR1. Mahomes had a 123.7 passer rating when targeting him(and it was 102 targets, not a small sample size like Khalil Shakir). He out-produced the 1st rounders Jordan Addison and Zay Jones and then was huge for them in the playoffs. His statistical projections for this year based on the sites I have seen predict he will produce around 95-100 catches and 1100-1200 yards 7-9 TD's most likely. Not All Pro so not "elite" but definitely excellent WR1 production. The Bills don't have anyone projecting anywhere close to that. But Rice doesn't have to be "elite". They already have Travis Kelce, the elite of the elite at TE in the NFL. I like Dalton Kincaid but unless you presume that he is going to now match Kelce as the top receiving TE then the Bills WR corps doesn't match up to KC's 1-2 punch in either spot. I mentioned all the capital KC invested in WR because they didn't intentionally allow themselves to get worse at WR. @Zerovoltz suggestion that the Chiefs did so intentionally was preposterous. They expected to get MUCH better results from Moore and Toney. They hit a HR with their 3rd try in Rice.........getting a guy who produced at such a high rate as a rookie and excelled in the postseason.

Yep and using back-to-back 1st round picks on receiving targets will help make your "worse receivers" dream come true! Just like the Chiefs throwing 3 day 2 picks (Toney/Moore/Rice) at the WR position has yielded results. Bottom line........if you want to win in the NFL you need talented receiving targets.

I liked Marshall as a potential Gabe Davis upgrade at X in that 2021 draft but it just hasn't materialized for him. From the sounds of it he just hasn't worked hard enough for the opportunities in Carolina. Doesn't play special teams so once he got down the chart it was easy to inactivate him last season. As you note he is big and fast and also has better hands than Gabe, is better at contested catches and can actually be effective on short, chain moving throws that the clap-catcher could not. But something has been missing. He was a 5 star recruit, was drafted as a 20 year old and maybe he thought it was just going to keep coming easy for him and hasn't risen to the challenge. It really surprises me that Marshall hasn't changed teams but his trade value is like nil going into a walk year with such a loaded draft class so maybe the Panthers have just chosen to hold onto him and see if he breaks out.

I agree about baseball making a mistake in reducing the amount of minor league affiliates........that was an unnecessary cost-cutting measure that limits opportunities for people to see pro baseball in person. Unfortunately, the A's have just never been supported in volume in Oakland. As I said in the other thread on this topic they were near the bottom of the league in attendance when they were on that historic 3 straight WS victory run in the 1970's at a time when the ballpark was NOT a relic. Their ballpark should have been replaced with one of those retro style parks back in the 1990's but Oakland had that Marshawn Lynch, sneak your own booze in attitude about the A's. Now the government realizes they should have made more effort to keep those 81 home dates but the PR has been so bad for so long there is no guarantee that if the A's build a new park that the fans won't stay away out of spite. They need a fresh start.

Gabe is much more of a Marquez Valdes Scantling comp than he is a comp to Metcalf. Gabe and MVS have benefitted immensely from playing their entire careers with elite QB's and being a complementary option. When given opportunities to step up in class........they have both wilted. Metcalf is similar stylistically, but he's clearly on a different level. He is often tasked with going against the opponents top CB and has produced despite non-elite QB play. Btw.....as you know, you cherry picked Metcalf's catch %........which is over 60% for his career versus Gabe's career 54.5%. And as @BuffaloRebound also noted.........due to his physicality DK becomes a much more effective player in the playoffs when the yellow hankies get tucked away. Gabe gets called "playoff Gabe" as he has put up 68 yards per game and 6 TD in 7 games..........but Metcalf has averaged 113 yards per game and scored 5 TD in 4 games. Is DK worth the top of the market $ for a WR? No, but he's probably worth somewhere in the middle of that and what Gabe and MVS have been paid on their 2nd contracts.

Like I said, my rationale is based on Shakir not having made these plays. I'm not presuming he couldn't possibly get better but the good tape isn't there. And instead some bad tape is. You make an interesting point about the bullets that Allen throws. Allen can reach parts of the field with low trajectory bullets that maybe no other QB can.......and that trait can elevate a receiver if they can catch a 40 yard rope. Early on Allen's range made the field huge for a guy like Gabe Davis and allowed him to really press coverage deep and then comeback to huge open spaces that CB's weren't used to having to defend. Aided Diggs greatly as well. But that gave a false read on Davis' potential. Coverage adapted to his limited route tree, exposed his inability to catch contested passes etc.. Not having players who can take advantage of Allen's rather unique arm talent makes Allen less special as a passer. That's what we saw last season.......he just covered for it by running the ball to keep the chains moving. What Shakir does well translates more to the league in general than what Davis can do but it's also stuff that maybe a Brock Purdy could do just as well or better than Allen. If Shakir could add the ability to track and catch those low trajectory, high rpm deep throws that would make him far more valuable to the Bills. As it stands the Bills don't really have ANY WR that can help them take advantage of Allen's arm talent.

The highlighted is not what I said. I said when he was tried deep he was a ball dropper in the 2022 season/postseason. The drop of the wide open bomb in the WC game versus Miami was brutal. The concerns about his hands after 4 drops on just 27 targets grew from there when he had a really bad training camp. And given the great hype, people were shocked to consider he could already be on the bubble going into year 2. The Bills did a good job of keeping his throws short to intermediate this year. They just asked him to do what he was good at. That's how you get the most out of players with limitations. As for what I mean about stopping his feet on DEEP throws..........it's basically the "can you walk and chew gum at the same time" thing with receivers. Some can track the deep ball and catch it in stride.........others like Shakir have to stop their feet or jump so they can just focus on catching the ball. On short to intermediate throws Shakir is good at catching the ball and doing it in stride....... but doing it on the deep ball is an aspect that separates those with the highest ceiling from the rest and something you definitely want from an outside receiver.

I will add that there was A LOT of hype in general about the Shakir pick back in 2022. Like I said, we had people on TSW go so far as drawing comps to Stef Diggs. A lot was EXPECTED.

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically. He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field. In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride. He likes to stop his feet on longer throws. I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

Oh I think he made defenses change what they wanted to do. No doubt. But the problem was that his finesse style didn't translate well to the postseason clutching and grabbing. There is a reason that Travis Kelce averages 15 yards per game more and has almost twice the TD production per game in the playoffs versus the regular season despite the Chiefs offense scoring less in general. His game translates to flag-less football. Diggs game goes the opposite direction, less yardage and less TD/game.

They would have drafted Mahomes, IMO. But Rex was pretty checked out. He gave Pegula an ultimatum because he didn't want to coach. The NY job burned him out he just took what was then a massive contract to be the Bills HC. Anthony Lynn would have been the HC for Mahomes rookie year, most likely.