BADOLBILZ

This board and the fascination with runnin' bax. How many examples do some of you need to see to know that you don't draft them early, don't trade good picks for them and don't pay them big. Very simple rules. If Barkley becomes a free agent and has to take a cheap, Leonard Fournette kinda' deal.........and you really need a veteran RB.........that's your opening.

Yeah, it is........to prove it I will give you an even more extreme example than say........last weeks signing of JJ Watt for $15M per year aav that has just a $5M cap figure in year one. Let's say the best defensive player in the NFL was available in UFA and he wanted to go to a winning team with a good QB.......there aren't any $25M per year pass rushers this season........but let's say that you sign one to a 5 year $125M contract. That deal has a $20M signing bonus and $80M in other guarantees.........so a huge deal with $100M gtd. First year.........base $1M and $4M in amortized bonus($20M/5 years). That's a $5M cap figure, boss. Rest of contract: 2) $15M +4M 3) $20M +4M 4) $25M +4M 5) $44M(only $19M gtd) +4M The advantage of putting the guarantees into base salary is that they can be converted to bonus money to create cap room in future seasons.........which is exactly what's going on in KC and Tampa right now. Mahomes signed a $50M per year deal last summer.........his cap hit for 2020 was just $5.3M. So yeah they could easily afford that much cheaper DE equivalent of Tre White and Stefon Diggs and fit him under the cap for $5M in year 1. But damn........it's hard to do with less than $5M in space.........a good free agent is going to want a signing bonus of at least the aav of the deal.

Me too. If people want to know what the difference between Addison and a more effective pass rusher is..........think about the Hail Murray.........poor ol' Addison had Murray in his grasp but couldn't close the deal. A slightly better pass rusher and that pass never gets thrown. And that's just the impact of one play. They were good at getting pressures last year.....as they should have been with an offense that forced teams into throwing downs.........but they struggled to nail down games earlier in part because they weren't good at getting home. Don't get me wrong..........it's nice to have a player like Milano.........it's nice to have veteran depth on the DL..........but I do find it funny that the narrative on Beane has been so heavily to "he signs deals it's easy to get out of" and then when it's pretty obviously time to get out of the deals he doesn't. It's all pretty random.

In that case they still would have had 8 DL with a lot of NFL experience under contract (plus Mike Love who they like and has some). They have the highest paid personnel department in the league behind Beane..........they should be able to fill in the blanks from there and still be able to rotate heavily.

Yeah but c'mon..........he was an OBVIOUS cut..........I just assumed they were waiting because his roster bonus wasn't due until March 22. They could have gotten bigger, better and younger(or at least 2 of the 3) with that money. $5M in cap space is enough to get a STUD player in year one of long term deal. Worst moves so far: 1) Not cutting Addison 2) Signing Milano......the deal required $8M in cap space year 1.......a very high #........because he's too injury prone to stretch the deal. 3) Not cutting Morse........this one is more debatable but considering the concussions and limitations in the run game I was ready to turn the page. 4) Not cutting Butler........I understood why they kept him.......he took one for the team more than anyone last year.........but if they weren't going to cut Addison then he had to go.......just deferring money for he, Addison and Morse was not good. Some folks don't realize that the unguaranteed money they make this year takes a chunk out of the future cap flexibility as well. Need big years from those 3 to justify those deals in this market.......in which case they then lose the cap space next year from those pay cuts.

Samuel is versatile enough to play any of the WR positions and long term he's probably most dangerous from the slot. Beasley is in his walk year and has battled injuries.......Samuel would be the successor there in 2022. He would also become the Bills most dangerous RB option out of the backfield. He's a real RB too.......and legitimately 4.3 fast........not like "fast for a RB" guys like Etienne who people want to spend a high draft pick on. And his #'s as a deep ball receiver are excellent so yeah he can bounce out and play the X or Z. Davis is a good young player but he put enough bad things on tape this year and I have seen enough sophomore slumps that I would definitely not be pleased with him as WR1 or WR2 if Beasley or Diggs had to miss some time. He was great as "who was that guy" #4.......but in such a passing dominant league you actually need a 4th guy who is at least that good if you want to consistently win matchups against loaded secondaries. Think Josh Reed falling off after Peerless Price left as an example of how it could go. The difference between drawing the 3rd or 4th DB and the 2nd one is huge. Adding any healthy UFA who was good in 2020 might be a moot point now because by not cutting Addison and by signing a guy with a long injury history in Milano........therefore requiring a shorter term deal.......they have about $6M-$8M less in cap space than if they had just cut Addison and signed JJ Watt to the Arizona deal(for example) instead of inking Milano. That would have left enough to secure Samuel in year 1 of a 5 year deal and still get Williams for his short 3 year, first year $6M deal without yet having to reach into re-structured deals with guys like White and Dawkins yet.

The Bills RB's were among the better ones in the league in yards after first contact..........they are as good as the Tampa or KC backfields, neither of which has a sensational RB. The problem with the Bills run game was the run blocking. That isn't going to change with any of these RB's coming out. None of them is good enough to do squat without better blocking than that. That needs to be fixed. And since they brought back Morse and are probably going to start 5 returning players(counting Ford) they are probably going to have to fix it schematically. With Etienne specifically, he saw a precipitous drop in his yards per rush last year dropping from a career average of around 7.5 and a 2019 figure of 7.8.....down to 5.4. He's a little guy with A LOT of mileage on him. I don't care if he runs a decent 40 after 2 months of rest. It wouldn't surprise me if Lev Bell could still run that draft season 4.6 but I still know he's not the same RB. No thanks.

I agree with a lot of that but the big problem with Milano is he doesn't play nearly enough snaps. He only made it into 31% of the defensive snaps last year and he's never made it to 90%. OTB linebackers don't make or break success in the NFL......the Chiefs made it all the way to the SB with basically no quality LB play and they didn't lose the game because of it. If you are paying him as much as Milano you really NEED that OTB LB to be out there almost all the time at least. Also not high on Toney. I know why people want that guy like Tyreek Hill........but there is a big difference between most elusive players and Hill. And it's that extra juice that makes all the difference. Take a tenth off of Hill's 40 speed and he's just a pretty fast, undersized WR. I like the proven option in Samuel........he seemed like a perfect fit, legit 4.3 speed but also can play RB and is an excellent deep WR........especially with Beasley in his walk year and getting up there in age.......he could have been a real threat.

I don't know about most of you.........the tenor here before Milano re-signed was more about improving in FA in areas where they struggled in the playoffs. I'd rather have Williams and a playmaker like Curtis Samuel......or a pass rusher.......than use that $ retain Milano. Hopefully they are willing to continue pushing cap debt and actually address those spots with playmakers as well............if not, then these moves were a half-measure.

I am not against taking a potential LT with that pick. Right now that guy should be able to play some guard effectively though. A lot can change in a year.....Daryl Williams has had ups and downs.......let alone in 5 years when Dawkins is perhaps no longer effective. I remember starting a thread promoting drafting Aaron Donald and nobody was on board because they had 4 stud DL who seemed like they had many years of juice left at that time. Two years later Mario was gone and Dareus was in a downward spiral. The past 5 years we'd have killed to have that kind of player at such a critical position(pass rusher). The player they pick at #30 this year might not be able to contribute a great deal this year regardless of what position they choose. It would be nice......but off-the bus starter shouldn't be nearly as important as becoming a guy who your GM wants to extend after year 3.

They definitely need more juice on offense if they expect to throw down with KC. I don't think Toney is fast enough. He'd have to be a 4.3 guy to be worth a first. I think he's nowhere near that. Elusiveness is nice, but without speed it doesn't work very well in the NFL. I've compared him to Peter Warrick......who was a superstar, ankle breaking, tackle shaking WR at Florida State.......but his long speed was a 4.58 40 and he never really materialized into anything more than Cole Beasley. They've already got one of those. Nice but not a game breaker. I think Curtis Samuel could be that guy.........he's a 4.3 guy who could become a top slot WR but also can be a dynamic runner at RB and also is one of the higher rated deep threat WR's.........he's a very interesting player..........no guarantee they could have gotten him.......but it seems less likely now that they put so much money into that Milano contract.

Daryl Williams was the only high priority to re-sign, IMO. It's an offense-driven team........the Bills finished second in the NFL in scoring.........quality blocking is a lot more important to this team than Matt Milano on a middle of the league defense. The tackle position is more important than a guard........not going to find many guards who can man-up on an island with TJ Watt and shut him down. DW just had a very good year and he has an actual All Pro season in his recent past.....and they got him for less years, lower AAV and almost half the guaranteed money of Milano. That is a good value. Now as for who is more valuable, a guard like Elgton Jenkins that you have complained about Beane passing on.......or WR's like DK Metcalf or AJ Brown who were also passed on in favor of Cody Ford? Obviously, the two latter players, stud playmakers, are heading toward approx $22M aav second contracts..........Elgton is playing at a similar level but at a lesser valued position so he will be lucky to get $12M and a lesser % of that overall deal in guarantees.

It's not hard........John Butler always used to find the money to re-sign his guys.

I think they've reached the stage with this defense where they need to be able to mix things up more. They are less multiple now than they were in 2017..........they are basically a 4-2-5 only operation.........I'd personally like to see them be able to mix it up and not have to justify having an undersized WLB on the field every down would have been a chance to mix things up more. I know people point to the points scored in games where Milano wasn't on the field..........but AJ Klein was also the DPOW twice in that span and he made more big plays than Milano so it wasn't just a given that the defense as a whole would get worse without MM and with Klein and a rookie 5th rounder type. The question really is where are they going to cut corners..........or are they going to just start playing it like this is their window like teams with veteran QB's do. Something will have to give, most likely.

A lot easier to find that off-ball LB. Milano was a 5th rounder and there are some guys in this draft who people think can also excel fairly early in their careers at this position that are likely day 3 picks like Tony Fields and Garrett Wallow etc.. Pass rusher is a tough one..........even when you see one with the physical attributes like Trey Hendrickson.........it could be several years before they emerge. So it makes sense to pay for one of those in free agency if you need one urgently. As you said, hopefully they do both. But people downplaying a $7M cap hit...........JJ Watt has a $5M cap it.........I didn't expect ANYONE they signed this season to have a first year cap hit as high as $7M.

Be honest, GB..........a few days ago you were quite pleased to be mock-replacing Milano's roster spot with West Virginia OLB Tony Fields in round 5.

Gronk and Watt are HOF'ers who have put up unbelievable numbers and incredible plays around those injuries. This is sorta' like the guy in this thread saying "the average player misses 2 games every year" for comparison and not noting that the average player makes $3M per year(not $11M) and that the median salary in the league is less than $1M. Like I said.........I expect this to end up being a 2 year $28M deal when they let him go after the 2022 season. Which isn't as bad as the situation they have with Star Lotuelei but it's a lot like the situation they are in with Mario Addison........who they probably need to cut and will have cost them $14M for one season.

One of the big excuses made for the Bills defenders by film heads like those at Cover 1...........regarding LB play in particular.........is that they have become very predictable in the back 7. If Milano were playing in a multiple defense........whether it be a Belichick scheme or even a Wade Phillips type..........then I would say that there is much to gain from maintaining that experience so that they can use very different game plans from week to week based on the opponent. In this defense.........it's reasonable to question if the bang for the buck is there with just running back the same players in the same coverages that they've put on tape for the past 70 games. It was pretty clear that the Chiefs had totally dissected the Bills defense on film before they met in that AFCCG. It was as if they barely put the tape on for Cleveland. They knew who they were going to be facing. The fact that they could be pantsed so badly in their SECOND meeting of the year.......with all the money and draft picks they have invested in that defense......said a lot.

He missed the first McDermott playoff game with a hamstring injury........so he was available for 4 of 5. The flip side of just saying how many games he was available to play is that he suffered a broken leg in 2018 that would have caused him to miss an entire season if it happened on opening day. He suffered a torn pec that is generally an 8 week injury and often just a season ending trip to IR as well. As a result he played just 31% of the regular season defensive snaps in 2020(equivalent of just over 5 games for an every down LB).

I used years 2-3-4 for Davis because Milano didn't start much his rookie year either. He was elevated above Humber......started 3 games, popped a hamstring in the fourth and that was it....his rookie season was over due to injury. I didn't use the years AFTER because Milano hasn't played those years yet.......but yes it's possible that he will become less durable as he starts to actually accrue some snaps. To put his lack of action in perspective......every down LB CJ Mosley played 2100 snaps his first 2 seasons in the NFL.......Milano has played just 2400 in 4 seasons........he is very low mileage and yet he already has a track record for injury. I like Milano........*maybe* he gets smarter about how to protect himself without losing his effectiveness..........but I'd say that's less likely than him continuing to miss a lot of snaps to injury.

If you want to make a point just spit it out, captain suspense. The numbers spell it out. In Thomas Davis' years 2,3 and 4 he averaged nearly 95% of Carolina's defensive snaps. Milano obviously nowhere near that. In 6 of his 8 seasons Luke Kuechly played over 900 snaps. Milano hasn't done that once in 4. He literally played the equivalent of 5 regular season games worth of snaps in 2020. Availability is an issue with Milano. Fact.

It started soon after he was elevated to the starting position in December of 2017...........he pulled a hamstring in the Miami game and missed the wildcard game in Jacksonville........unfortunately they lost that game so he didn't get to miss the other games he would have had he sustained THAT soft tissue injury in-season. In the past 3 years he's missed 10 full games........he sustained an injury and missed time in 3 others............and was on a snap count with his shoulder in a sling in others. He played only 31% of the Bills defensive snaps this year. He's a safe bet to miss 6-8 games and large parts of others over the next two seasons.

What makes you think they are in on Hendrickson? I really liked him coming out and had reluctantly decided I would be glad to get him with pick #91(he was raw but just had such a high ceiling)...........but alas they listened to Phil McGeoghan and sent that pick to the Rams to trade up for that bust Zay Jones.

You are pretty much alone in thinking RB's drive the results in the NFL anymore............the hill you are defending is a mole hill. Leonard Fournette was supposed to be a generational RB...........for his career he gives you 3.9 yards per carry.........well below the league average per rushing play. Devin Singletary has averaged 4.8 ypc over his first 2 seasons.........maybe you should worry less about where the guy was drafted and the 40 time he ran at his pro day and more about the production that player gives the team when they have to sacrifice a passing play that would average around 8 yards by running the ball in the name of balance.