BADOLBILZ

Bad value for Dallas but Mingo is under contract cheap for the 2025 and 2026 seasons so that raises his day 3 value notably. Dallas obviously had a high grade on him in that 2023 draft.

And Giants fans definitely hate the Dodgers a lot more than Yankees fans. I'm reminded when driving out of Yankee stadium parking and seeing the Polo Grounds apartments that the two teams stadiums were just separated by a short bridge. About the equivalent walking from the Big Tree Road entrance to lot 1 up to the The Ralph.

Yeah that 60-62 includes the playoffs where the Bills are 4-1 against Miami. Otherwise 56-61 in regular season. The playoff wins are worth far more. The rivalry edge belongs to the Bills right now. 49-77 versus New England is the reason for that.

Yeah he was awful chatty with the Bills yesterday. During one of the timeouts he took his helmet off and came over to the Bills offensive huddle and was talking to the OL. It was an odd sight. The rest of the Dolphins D were all like 10 yards away.

Yeah defense's have been giving the Bills these throws all season and yesterday the Bills really took them. And yes Cook very likely scores a TD on that drop.....I don't know what the TV angle looked like yet but the All-22 will show nobody besides the trailing coverage LB on that side of the field. I'm not sure defense's will make any adjustments the Dolphins are just really shorthanded on defense and couldn't limit the damage. But you could argue that the Dolphins approach of making the Bills run a lot plays yielded mistakes from the Bills. The Bills left 11 points on the board in the first half due to 2 drops and 2 penalties and that allowed Miami to keep pounding the Bills at the LOS on offense.

1) The better your WR talent the less BTT's you probably need to attempt/make. That's likely why Allen didn't rank as highly in that stat in the 2020 season as he has since. In 2020 he had perhaps the top WR corps in the NFL and had clearly his best passing season. Not just statistically but mechanically and how the ball was coming out of his hand etc.. 2) It's hard for me to read too much into the bulk stats because of this very odd schedule. The eyeball test is that they've only played 2 good teams and their lack of boundary WR talent got exposed by them and they had 2 really awful offensive games. But the Bills have since addressed the boundary with a veteran WR1 and Coleman looks to be rounding into form. Obviously the Chiefs/Niners/Rams/Lions stretch will be when we get to see how much of a difference those improvements made.

I like that you are laying it out there on what you think the contract would look like. But if he is more than just a Christian Kirk level slot.......then settling for what Kirk got 3 years later is a huge sacrifice. I mean the cap will have increased by $50M in that time and that figure might be up to $70M by the time Shakir's contract is set to expire AFTER the 2025 season. And if he produces more like 1200 yards that number is certainly closer to $30M value in 2025 than $20M. This is why I see a potential Gabe Davis like standoff. Shakir might be settling for 60 cents on the dollar signing early. In the deals they got done with Knox and Spencer Brown I don't think either were asked to sacrifice nearly that much potential.

Yep I posted my opinions of the 2024 Yanks sh!ttiness before the series started and we basically got to see all of those warts in the WS against a "good" but seriously wounded Dogers team. So they somehow still had a chance to steal a WS title in what was a REALLY hard year to watch. They were about as fun to watch for a longtime baseball fan as that dogsh!t 2017 backed-into-wildcard Bills team whose offense I wish I could unsee. Only fun for people who don't know how the game is supposed to be played. But the media and fans who think the Yankees blowing that 5-0 lead in the 5th inning was epic either didn't see Clay Holmes blow 14 saves during the season or are just exaggerating for effect. They blew games in incredible ways all season. That Errin' Buffoonery was not at all out of character.😂 Not a great year for baseball. Simply put, not nearly enough hitting. League batting average dropped 5 points from 2023. There were times when it looked like that batting average was going to end up the worst in 100 years. The game being dominated by no-name relief pitchers who are gassed after 20 pitches is not what the owners should want. Make the strike zone a circle that fits entirely inside the current square....eliminate those unsquarable corner pitches and these rock chuckers will have to ratchet down the velocity and break. Watch the league batting average jump right back up 20 points where it should be. It's no fun seeing lineups filled with sub-.250 hitters. And subsequently more balls put in play will lead to sharper defense and more exciting baseball. But even the randomness created by early short series format in the playoffs couldn't prevent this matchup this season........just too many bad teams......the only thing that really went right for baseball is that the Yanks and Dodgers finally met again. 43 years was far too long.

Yes and it's been since I was around 6 or 7 years old. Just having a holiday where you didn't have to go to church and eat greasy goose at some old relatives house made up for the lack of "gifts". Now I enjoy making it a fun time for the kids. I buy 20 of those big bags of candy from Costco and have the animatronics and 12' skeletons and such. We get about 300 kids each at 2 different houses and hopefully they have good memories and pass the fun forward when they get older. But as a kid myself I mostly enjoyed the danger of it. It was a real accomplishment to get thru the night uninjured and/or with all of your candy. You don't get that feeling from getting a bunch of toys. I am pretty sure the people who wrote those "Purge" movies must have grown up with 70's and 80's Halloween's.

I get that they love Shakir. They absolutely loved Knox. They absolutely loved team captain Gabe. Knox had very efficient TE receiving numbers prior to his extension but everyone knew he had some limitations. Shakir is the same way without the ability to be the regular X or Z. They surely regret extending Knox. So could the Bills draft a WR early with more inside/out versatility instead of paying Shakir the going rate and then not have to substitute as often to get where they want to be offensively? Whether they love them or not is a factor but they let Gabe go and he was playing nearly every snap. Gabe wanted market and that was considerably more than his value to them.

Well, I mean they didn't even really TRY to replace Beasley. Throwing one of their 4ths at the problem in the upcoming draft would be a lot more than they did then. And then there is the question of whether Kincaid needs more of those reps to reach HIS potential. The Bills can retain Kincaid thru the 2027 season(with a healthy 5th year bump) and TE's don't get money commensurate to comparably ranked WR. So that's a factor in the Shakir decision as well. Being able to run their offense thru Kelce has been a big cap saver for the Chiefs. Also important to note that Shakir plays less than 60% of the snaps because having to use him in the slot isn't ideal for a lot of the other things they want to do. That's where being able to start outside instead would make a big difference. As for him accepting Gabe-like money..........that could be a huge amount to leave on the table. I know the Bills wanted to extend Gabe but he wasn't taking 60 cents on the dollar. With the punishment Shakir takes in the slot maybe he'd be more inclined to take a team friendly deal early but that punishment is also why you shoot for the bigger deal with more guarantees. That might be the last deal he gets.

I agree that they will try to extend Shakir but I think he'll have to leave a lot of money on the table. I doubt they offer him market rate like they would if he were a true X or Z. If he's patient and stays healthy he could get a Christian Kirk deal after the 2025 season from a team that is trying to prop up a rookie contract QB. I'm sure Jerry Jones spit out his coffee when he found out what Buffalo paid Beasley in 2019. Teams can plan around guards and slot receivers being available in FA so they do.

I think the GENERAL consensus from draftniks was that Shakir was a day 2 pick but the people who thought Shakir could play outside are like the people who thought Cook was a WR playing RB. Wrong. At least thru 3 NFL seasons. Fortunately they are really good at what they CAN do. Just so happens those things aren't valued as highly as the things they can't do. Which is why there is a good chance that neither gets extended.

The @SDS story about him getting outraged at Hog boy is probably my favorite TSW story ever. RIP John.

The 2020 offense was only at it's best early in the season when John Brown was healthy. That group got OPEN and open deep. It didn't really matter who they had at TE or RB with that group of WR's. THAT version of the 2020 WR corps was stacked and top 3 in the league, if not the very best that year. The version they took to the playoffs is the one @FireChans is comparing them to and that one wasn't nearly as good with Brown compromised and then got much worse by the AFCCG due to injuries to Beasley and Davis. League-wide, the bar has been raised at the WR position since 2020 and that shows in how teams are playing defense now. So, in addition to not being as explosive as that first half of 2020 offense..........this current unit's rank in terms of skill players isn't as high as it was then relative to the rest of the NFL. As you say, hopefully Samuel comes back looking like the player he's been most of his career and then if Cooper gets back to 2023 form then it's possible that this could be the best group but I will take the one that was speed-boating teams early in 2020.

To say that they weren't even going to "sniff the playoffs" is just hindsight. They had the talent to be a wild card team, they were just poorly coached on the defensive side of the ball that first season. They were a hell of a lot better than that Broncos team they stomped late in the year which went on to win a playoff game.

I think Coleman can improve as a separator. He's probably not as experienced as a lot of WR coming into the league who have been focused on playing football or 7 on 7 football all year round because he's only been a full time football player since 2022. Some of the comps I've seen(Mike Williams and Tee Higgins) of guys who really have to make a living on contested catches are players I think Coleman is more athletic than. I also think Coleman might have a tendency to play to contact from years of playing in close quarters on the basketball court, which is something he should try to get away from.

Yeah we agree. I think the wording of Coleman as a "Gabe replacement" is what I was disagreeing with. I know you had some appreciation for the value that Beane gleaned picking Gabe in round 4......but to me calling Coleman Gabe's replacement rings like saying Amari Cooper is Mack Hollins replacement. Beane dropped the ball entering the season without a WR1. I know the "everybody eats" people are trying to retract their apologies after the Bills trounced a Seattle defense in disarray without production from Cooper........but anyone with common sense knew that they were "asking everyone to play up a spot", as you say, and that might be the difference between being undefeated now versus 6-2 with Josh Allen having a couple more concussions in his medical history.

Bass can't be moved without a re-structure because of dead money. If the Bills get another kicker I suspect they'd have to keep Bass on the 53 all season anyway.

I don't think Elam has any more than LATE round pick swap and he's worth more than that to Buffalo, I think. Jeffrey Simmons is still a good run defender and brings a physicality the Bills lack but I don't think he nearly garners a 1st. Maybe Jeffrey Simmons, K Nick Folk and a 4th for one of the Bills 2nd rounders. Even then it's a tough match because TN would have to eat about $5M this season for Buffalo to afford Simmons. A pick swap for just Folk wouldn't surprise me. He's on a expiring deal.

Yeah I think you are giving Gabe too much credit. His hands are really, really bad. It's not yips or anything like that he just has hard hands......which is a failure of hand-eye coordination where an athlete just can't make the very subtle adjustments needed to quiet and control a fast moving ball. If you are a good HS athlete in the US you usually play 3 consecutive seasons of sports where you need soft hands to be a good skill player. How Gabe made it thru the cracks with that deficiency is a mystery(although generally speaking, participation in football is low).........but that's why Gabe throws his hands or claps at the ball, he has to make a broad movement to compensate for not being able to make the slightest of adjustments. Subsequently, there just isn't anything Gabe Davis can do with late hands or in a 50/50 situation. Which, of course, is particularly important when you aren't a natural separator and that really lowers his ceiling. Gabe was always best suited as a WR3 or a specialist. I don't think there is any one quality that Coleman has to prove he's not terrible at the way Gabe did. I'm not going to get carried away with him having some good games in this soft spot of the schedule but I think he's really answered some questions about what he's capable of.

Beane waking up to the Diontae Johnson news. Good thing Overdorf wore his brown pants this am.

Yeah you were probably the biggest Coleman supporter all thru the winter on TSW. There weren't many who actually advocated his selection thru the process. I know @Coach Tuesday really loved the pick. I loved the Davante-Adams-esque ceiling but had serious doubts about the learning curve fitting a 2024 timeline. Especially without a true WR1. As horrific as those road games in Baltimore and Houston were that truly horrible passing offense forced Beane's hand to get Cooper. Which I suspect has taken a good deal of pressure off the rest of the group of weapons and then the subsequent flat spot in the schedule has created a lane to feed Coleman and build him up. Hopefully he maintains the trajectory like Rashee Rice did for KC once he got going last year.

Maybe some? There will be a lot of Bills fans giving away or eating their groups of tickets, even if they are particularly meaningful games to home field advantage etc... The more the merrier but there is still a wide difference in commitment between the core fan base and the ever-growing balance........many of whom are our over-acting, living-their-best-lives instagram vacation fans. It used to be that traveling to road games was a sign of extra commitment as a fan but in our case(with so many transplants) it's often the exact opposite so I take these "take-overs" with a grain of salt.

By the standards of the day Bills fans were traveling in great numbers. It's different now, so many of these games are either in what have become "destination" cities or places with tons of WNY transplants. It's bittersweet to me because my dream scenario as a Bills fan was for the fan base to become it's own entity(in the same way that Cubs fans had been able to do) and separate from the team's dysfunction. We have totally achieved that with the Bills mafia shtick. But at the same time.........fans will be GIVING tickets away for the Dec 22 and 29 home games. Those traveling fans won't travel to Buffalo and sit out in the cold to cheer the team on. We have great numbers but more than our share of posers because it's become so trendy to be a Bills fan.