BADOLBILZ

Like I said, sometimes every box is checked. This year the best of a good UFA group was just Brandon Scherff who is generally considered among the 3-5 best OG's in the league(1st team All Pro in 2020).........and is still in his prime. Joe Thuney is also one of those top 3-5 OG's in the league and he was a fully unrestricted free agent who changed teams last offseason. Shaq Mason is more of a top 7-8 OG in the league and he just got traded for a 5th round pick while on a team friendly contract. There is no shortage of examples of how easy it is to get one of the best OG's in the league without investing an early round pick. You're welcome.

Yep, correct, my bad. My point about the defensive scheme is the same though...........the defense began playing better ONLY when the team itself wratched up the intensity mid-way thru the Bucs game. This after 2 months of intermittent sleep walking as a team. They made stops in that second half in Tampa to get them back in the game and played better defense the rest of the season. The idea that the Bills secondary cost them a chance at the SB doesn't jive with what happened with the SB winner..........even Ramsey and the great Rams pass rush got torched in Tampa..........but they made it thru anyway. They outscored the Bucs to move on. The Bills didn't outscore the Chiefs.........they got too conservative on some drives and took the ball out of Josh Allen's hands and that combined with having 2 less possessions is what got them beat. (And yes, they had two less possessions.......first half was even........Chiefs had the first possession of the second half and the last 2 possessions of the game.)

There are 3 good reasons to never select a guard or in round 1. Money. Organizational impact. Successful habits. 1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions. Not only can drafting a player at a big $ position save you money in the first contract but it gives you a chance to have negotiating leverage on that player prior to the first contract ending. The savings can be substantial and the tens of millions we are talking about have real value. 2) As far as organizational impact........guards rarely have the opportunity to actually change games on the field.........that's usually done by QB's with significant assistance from edge/island players. This is why the money flows the way it does in the NFL. You want to be good at the LOS but you don't need to draft interior lineman early to be good at the point of attack. And as an aside they don't move the needle off of the field by making your team more interesting/marketable/attractive. 3) And ultimately you either are a consistent, sound decision maker as a GM..........or you aren't. I've been saying it for 15+ years here........the draft is an ongoing process of team building not just an annual event to patch up holes. Is the juice at G ever worth the squeeze to break from common sense? Not when you consider the opportunity cost. Ask the Chiefs if they wish they had that CEH first rounder back. The rationalization for selecting a guard is not much different than a RB.........we tend to think of RB's as disposable and G's as ten year assets.........but what they share in common is the likelihood that if they reach their lofty 1st round ceiling then your team won't feel compelled to retain that player at their open market figure.

As I said before you tried to straw-man me..........the first game they lost AFTER the injury was KC. When White got hurt in Tampa they were already being blow torched by the Bucs offense.........mainly because they were playing uninspired football as they had been doing consistently for 2 months. They actually began playing better WITHOUT him.........which isn't to say that he's not a tremendous player but rather it underscores that the Bills secondary isn't about dynamic matchup athletes..........it's about executing the assignments and minimizing big plays. Reality is that they tied both of those games and lost in OT...........it isn't OBVIOUS that secondary play cost them those games..........not at all really.

I am envisioning some old Flutopians re-plating their old jerseys and then realizing after the fact what they've done.

Yeah the question with Gilmore is does he have another big payday in him or is he like Richard Sherman..........All Pro one year.........injured for much of the next.........then he was struggling to get a good paying gig. Gilmore is actually coming off two injury plagued/marred seasons........they were both last "All Pro" in 2019. It took some off-field sh*t to reduce Sherman to a league minimum status player but it's not out of the question that Gilmore isn't seeing offers anywhere close to what he was expecting.

So we are in agreement that expecting 1st and 2nd round rookies to be difference makers in the defense.........thereby addressing the perceived immediate need for pass rush........did not fix the problem. Personally, I think the lack of finish in the pass rush was the biggest problem for the Bills defense in their loss to KC............not the cornerback play. All Pro quality Tre White on his best day can't cover Tyreek Hill for 4 seconds........as evidenced by the scorching Hill gave him in the AFCCG in January 2021. Having a stud CB out there made zero difference against Mahomes without effective pass rush. Now with Von Miller and Settle/Phillips and the developing young DE's that has been HEAVILY addressed the past 2 offseasons. The Bills defensive secondary is what it is though.......heavy zone based......and it's probably not an accident that players who know their limitations and their role in the defense have thrived in it. Maybe Tre White doesn't come back to the All Pro form he was playing at last season.........but could he come back and play his role as well as Levi Wallace until he gets there? I think so. And that was good enough to be a #1 ranked defense.........the first game the Bills lost after the White injury game was the last one. I'm not saying don't draft or sign any CB's but there are positions on the team where elite early round traits actually do make a big difference............and CB hasn't been one of those in the McDefense..........and once you get past those early rounds then it goes back to what Beane said..........can draft picks beat out the experienced young players they have on the roster?

Did drafting two DE's in round 1 and 2 last season "ensure" that the pass rush would be strong? No it did not..........throwing numbers at a perceived problem in the draft doesn't guarantee anything. Beane is a confidence man at the mic.........so we know he's not afraid to bald-face lie to the fans or media in his job............but I do believe him when he says that he didn't select a CB early in the draft last year because he didn't think any of them could beat out Dane Jackson. McBeane have had undrafted Levi Wallace and late rounder Dane Jackson starting a lot of games with great success the past couple seasons...........they like some of their low pedigree reserves including toolsy Nick McCloud who ran a 4.37 at the ND pro day last year and has 32" arms. Adding 3 new CB's to the existing mix of White/Jackson/Johnson/Neal/Lewis/McCloud/Griffin isn't out of the question but it also could end up causing a roster crunch and/or leaving the Bills with a disgruntled vet on the bench and a high draft pick struggling to get playing time ahead of more experienced young players who have been in the system. If they eschew BPA to throw numbers at CB that would be a mistake.

Guard is the Bills weakest position..........lesser quality starters and zero depth. Recovering Tre White > last leg Rodger Saffold Dane Jackson = Ryan Bates Taron Johnson.......very good slot CB........Siran Neal.......promising slot CB Lewis and McCloud are more promising in the Bills D system than are lousy Cody Ford and Greg Mancz as backups in the Bills zone blocking system(Boettger with torn achilles on 300# frame probably starts year on IR)

Just like Allen makes up for some poor blocking with his escapability...........it's reasonable to hope that the massive investments in the pass rush this offseason will do a better job of protecting the secondary. As for Allen looking better with worse blocking........his yards per pass attempt dropped a full yard this past season due to that pressure and the Bills offense scored less points than in 2020...........so that is a case of looks being very deceiving if that's the way some people feel. I get that people fear the CB situation but those are mainly the same people who threw up their hands when White got injured and declared that the team wouldn't even make the playoffs and that the SB dreams were totally over. As it turns out they could have easily won the SB without White. And there were some pretty shaky CB's playing in the championship games and SB..........it's not like those games were showcases of top CB play.

Why would they be? Giving the football to the best RB in the league gives you less production per play than keeping it in the hands of a top QB and letting him throw it. It's math. Josh Allen had a down year throwing the ball last season and he averaged about 7 yards every time he threw the ball, he should get back to about 8 this year. Taylor is the best RB in the NFL and averaged only 5.5 every time he ran it. And as tremendous as he was as a receiver his 9 ypc would be extremely low for a receiver........like 3 broken ribs, missing tooth, fighting with the league office Cole Beasley low. So if every RB touch is 2.5-3.5 yards less per play than every QB pass attempt...........then if you have a star RB and give him 10 more touches per game because he is a star than you would the 4.7 ypc Devin Singletary.......your net gain on the ground is about 8 yards more and your net loss in the air is 25-35 yards. Overall.......a net loss of 17-27 yards of offense. And that's assuming that running the ball doesn't kill some of those drives outright...........or that it's still that easy to run the ball in the wratched up intensity of the playoffs(Henry and Taylor and Alvin Kamara have had much lower production per play in the playoffs).

That hasn't actually happened in decades of NFL football.

@Ridgewaycynic2013 foreshadowed this earlier this week

IMO Linderbaum was always one of those easy/lazy first round mocks.........kinda' like Shaq Lawson or AJ Epenesa. It only takes one team to pull the trigger....see Shaq........but if a much better all around center prospect like Creed Humphrey can fall to round 2 then I don't see why a scheme specific guy like Linderbaum should have been considered a lock in round 1.

Beane doesn't just kick tires he got to know the bounce to ounce ratio.

It's a coin flip whether a 6th-7th rounder will be an equally impactful pro as this guy.........heads is yes tails is nope.

I do tend to think they will try to run the ball more often.........Dorsey was a game manager QB at The U who lived off the protection of a strong running game and play action throws to TE's with occasional deep shots to then wide open receivers. It got him a ring and is likely still part of his DNA, at least. I'm not entirely against that with Allen.......I think he could be great in a 2 TE offense......... but it is different than what he's mostly done under Daboll. A heavy 12 personnel look might alleviate some of the issues they had with the lack of RAC while being a spread offense. The offense the Bills ran under Daboll eventually required someone to make a play on a short pass in the backfield or within a few yards of the LOS and they didn't have that last season..........so they pulled the emergency lever and started running Allen. But even in 12 personnel.....assuming Knox and Howard both perform admirably.........they still need players who can make explosive plays in the passing game to make it work at a 30 ppg level. That's Diggs and Davis right now.........but Davis hasn't done it week in and out yet and the next name on the X/Z receiver list is Kumerow and that ain't good enough.

I think the question of whether Tre White will return to form is no less of a mystery than whether Gabe Davis will elevate his consistency to become a 1,000 yard type receiver to fill the numbers void with the departures of Beasley/Sanders. Davis doing THAT is probably more NEEDED than White returning to All Pro form in a defense that protects it's corners schematically.

I don't know exactly how many but I don't think it's very unusual nor does it say anything about the viability of doing that. Jason Peters and Dion Dawkins are both examples and if the Bills didn't have a gaping hole at LT at the time then Cordy Glenn might have started at guard as well. It's more circumstance than anything else, IMO. Jonas Jennings blocked Peters initially, Glenn blocked Dion initially. Dion Dawkins game declining some this season or next wouldn't be a huge shock.......he's not a generational talent at LT he's been kinda' defying the odds as a shorter, portlier LT because his feet have covered for his less than ideal frame. When the feet go it will likely be a fast fall or a move to guard.

He's very good. I think there is a perception that if it were down to Dotson or CB Andrew Booth Jr...........that Booth is obviously the better/more valuable asset. I'm not sure that's the case. I don't really know why this has happened exactly........the easy answer is to say that offense is more important than defense............. but WR has eclipsed CB in terms of premium salary expectations. I thought the very top CB and WR contracts would be mirror images at this point in NFL history but that's not what is happening. I know JC Jackson seemed to take a bad deal from the LAC but in general CB's aren't getting $20M+ aav deals...........top WR's are. If a WR is even he's leavin' even applies to cash value of the position now.

If you rock the neck beard you really should have a brim on your hat, IMO.

A WR in round 1.........nowadays...........I would expect to rely upon them immediately. They have been coming in hot for a while now and bearing in mind that Gabriel Davis was WR4 in 2020 and put up 600 yards and 7 TD's I would expect plenty of opportunity for a first round rookie WR to make an impact.

I would say the two biggest foundational needs at this point are a future LT who can play well at guard or RT right now...........and a WR1 with great speed and/or RAC ability. Deficient blocking and a lack of RAC ability from the WR corps cost them regular season games and subsequently home field advantage last year.........but beyond that those are 2 of the 4 most important positions on the roster(QB1/PassRusher1/LT1/WR1) and they can't allow those expensive and difficult to re-stock positions to decline. Those players are what round 1 and to a good extent round 2 are for, IMO. Everything else is a clear notch or more below in priority for this team. They really don't NEED another stud cover corner to play in their zone scheme.........if it happens organically.........say you draft and develop a guy with both man and zone skills in the mid rounds.........great.........but unless the defense is going to make a fundamental change to more man coverage you don't really NEED two pro bowl cover guys in this system. Not saying Andrew Booth wouldn't be worth the pick at #25.........but I'd hope to address the positions where the individual skill level would be more impactful for the team going forward.

My concern would be that they aren't totally committed to keeping elite talent around Allen..........that now they think he is good enough that he should be able to elevate everyone around him on the offensive side and that they will always find an excuse to focus premium assets on defense. Basically the Green Bay treatment. I'd say that the odds favor them being able to get more help at receiver at #25 than at corner. But the question may be who do you think will be the better pro.........Andrew Booth or Chris Olave/Jahan Dotson/Treylon Burks/Christian Watson/George Pickens(basically whoever one thinks is the better WR prospect likely to be there)? If the answer is definitely Booth then that should be the pick.........but if not and Booth is just prioritized there because of the perception that the defense is just one piece away from being "totally set" then that's probably the wrong way to go about making that decision. If it's a toss up then I favor the Josh Allen side of the equation........that's the way it should be and it's also the side of the ball that's easier to maintain consistency on.

The Bills offense took a significant step back last regular season.........coming off the loss to NE......the 3rd loss in 5 games, all scoring in the teens.......it was becoming a crisis situation. That's when they turned to the unsustainable run-Josh offense. The Bills defense ranked #1 in 2021. Yet the vast majority of dollars spent in UFA have gone to the defensive side of the ball. 4 legitimate long term deals for DL.........the only actual multi-year deal on offensive side was Bates.......and that was forced by Beane misplaying his hand with the tender. (not saying it won't pay off long term but I don't think for a minute he planned on paying Bates what he had to)