BADOLBILZ

In general this should be one of the most successful UDFA classes ever. Tons of late draftable players who will not be drafted.........and quite a few RB's like Horvath with a chance to earn a spot. This draft gets knocked for the lack of 1st round grades but there is a lot of depth at non-premium positions in particular........so if you are a GM who plays the percentages it's a good draft to avoid them early.

My defaults regarding what Beane says to the media are thus: 1) If there is ANY strategic advantage at all to lying.......he will lie.......and sometimes even go a bit out of his way to do so. 2) Otherwise he is pretty honest. There are obvious strategic reasons to not speak negatively of the value of the RB position. Be it simply not to alienate your own running backs and keep the "perception" that they are valued and that hard work and production could result in a second contract. Or just to make teams think you *might* take a RB with your pick. It would be nothing short of idiotic for Beane to say that he wouldn't take a RB in round 1 or even that they would have to be a generational type, etc..

I think the difference between now and 2017 was that McDermott felt like he had to do a full re-tool of his secondary. The 2016 Bills defense featured 2 quality man cover CB's in Gilmore and Darby but the safety situation was a black hole..........they were the weak link of Rex defense. So they spent real money on 2 safeties..........they are viewed in retrospect as value deals but the deal Poyer got in particular was out of left field. Then they (carelessly) let Gilmore leave without a tag and trade..........and were left with nobody who fit the scheme at CB. White was zone CB1 in that 2017 draft..........some saw him as a reach because he didn't have great man cover skills.........but his availability at #27 in 2017 would be the near equivalent of zone CB1 Sauce Gardner being available at #25 this year........but at the time a zone CB had less value than today, IMO. Now, with some offenses capable of lining up three guys who would have all been WR1 types in 2017...........I think teams are willing to invest a bit more in a zone CB because it's not practical to play man against some teams. So taking White was not just like taking a flyer on McDuffie/Gordon or even the well regarded Booth Jr............I think in this draft White would have gone between picks 10-15. I just don't expect the Bills to get THAT kind of value at zone CB at #25 this year..............but, as always, there are A LOT of good zone CB prospects. You don't have to take one in round 1 if you can't get THE one.

There is a lesson in here about giving a valued WR the touches you normally give a RB and creating this weird situation where he is now seen as "more valuable" than he was prior............when in fact they are just putting hard miles on the dude and shortening his career. He was coming off the field injured frequently at the end of last season............that isn't what you want to see from a young WR1........unless you plan to use him up and let him walk. I think it's smart of Deebo and his agent to try to get him paid........he could end up Saquon'd or McCaffrey'd next season.........young but already worn out........so he should be trying to get that money while he can.

I think there are a lot of folks looking at all the impending 2023 free agents and thinking that the Bills gotta' draft their replacements pronto! In reality we are talking about: MLB (Edmunds) Safety (Poyer) TE (Knox) RB (Singletary) You could scarcely pick 4 easier positions to fill in an offseason. They could throw some day 3 picks and a couple UDFA's at those positions in this draft.........and then still be able to come back next offseason and have another shot to find cheap replacements in UFA or in the draft if the 2022 crop doesn't look promising and if some or all of the established starters aren't re-signed. The process on draft day should remain the same..........early picks on premium positions.

His confidence hang like sleeve of wizard.

There are plenty of roster spots up for grabs..........the right mix of 7-9 rookies could make the Bills 53 this time around...........the team is clearly not as deep with proven talent as it was last spring. Especially on the OL and at WR. One each might not do it.

Extra points for taking the "Barn-burners" back-to-back.......and for not taking a RB at all.

I know Beane is a good salesman........but when we get to the point where people are questioning whether 3rd round and 4th round picks can even make the team.........you guys are really letting your imaginations run wild with this "Bills don't have spots for draft picks" narrative. The Bills did have a lot of veteran depth in 2020 and 2021..........that was a function of Beane having plenty of cap room and spending big on reserve players......which made it harder for 6th and 7th rounders and UDFA's to earn a spot on the 53. But those days are over. The Bills are overextended on the cap now.........they are spending future seasons cap space to win now..........and that has lead to them replacing some of their more expensive veteran depth with veteran minimum types who will be quite a bit easier to supplant on the roster. There are very winnable jobs available at RB3, XWR2, YWR2, TE3, TE4, swing OT, reserve guard, reserve center, reserve DT, CB3, CB4, MLB2 and OLB2 and both reserve Safety positions. That's 15 different roster spots that could end up being manned on opening day by someone not currently on the roster.........and that doesn't even account for injury. So they are basically back where they were a few years ago where they very well could have 7-9 rookies on the 53.

Wishing they would have kept the Blue and Gold colors for the Maulers.

https://nypost.com/2022/04/18/yankees-beat-cowboys-for-title-of-most-valuable-sports-team/ Most valuable sports team on the planet per Sportico. Hal is cheap.

I don't have that info........but the last time they had this level of access to players was 2019 and I think the amount of data they collect on players in the season has increased a lot in that time. Like the gps data.......they have been doing that at the Senior Bowl for some time and now it's tracked extensively in-season/in-game........and unfortunately fans don't yet have access to that valuable info. It's my estimation that teams can get to know A LOT more about a player without the in-house visit than they were able to glean in 2019. That being the case...........they still get the same amount of visits and the time. It just makes sense to utilize a portion of it on players they will have to recruit. And I do think that some of the guys they have been rumored to be looking that are fringe draft picks. Rambo is pretty fringy, IMO. Max Borghi. Anyone who goes in round 5 or later is probably a UDFA on some team's board.

He's devalued some because he is coming from a poorly coached Miami team..........there has been great value in selecting Miami players late in recent years and coaching them up. But his hands were bad in college. His hand reliability improved some after transferring to Miami from Oklahoma.........but he's still basically a 3rd-4th round athlete with UDFA hands, IMO. Fix the hands and you have an NFL receiver. It would be good strategy IMO to bring into the building or have private workouts off-site with players that they anticipate being priority UDFA's..........I think most of the top prospects they really don't need to have visit...........but the one's they need to recruit they would gain an advantage by doing so.

Yeah that attitude is consistent with their defense heavy drafting in round 1. But the fact is that it's even proven easier still to find good players for the Bills secondary from later round selections and even undrafted players. The only player in the Bills WR corps.......OR their secondary..........that was drafted into the NFL before round 4 is Tre White. Jamison Crowder is the highest drafted receiver on the roster (105th pick). IMO they can probably anticipate adequate CB2 level play as a rookie with their 3rd pick in the 2022 draft. It would be a bit disappointing if they couldn't find a player who could play zone behind a pass rush with the pedigree the Bills line has. That player should be more talented than Wallace or Dane Jackson were and presumably a good fit in zone. It's a strong WR draft but I wouldn't anticipate a WR2 ready player from a 3rd or 4th round WR in year 1. Could happen, but it's not like the secondary where 6th rounders and UDFA's have literally come in and performed well as rookie. Bills have had no luck with WR's they've picked after round 4.

Yeah.......to me just 6 games out of 37..........16% of games played............with over 80 yards receiving..........and most nowhere near that......... just isn't anymore convincing than pointing out that he's averaged 35 yards per game in the regular season. It's assumed that receivers will have some notably above average games...........which is what 80 yards represents..........not "greatness"........but definitely an above average game. If Davis has no real competition for that WR2 spot..........he should be expected to produce well over 1,000 yards with Josh Allen as his QB.........just as he and John Brown combined for 1048 in 2020............and as he and Sanders combined for 1172 in 2021. But the real objective should be to be on par with Tee Higgins........Cinci's #2...........who put up 78 yards per game last year and around 1100 yards. Almost double the yardage of Gabe Davis despite Davis (571) playing 80% of the snaps Higgins did(710). That's what a clear #2 in an offense with Josh Allen should probably put up...........which is a WHOLE LOT more than the 55 yards per game figure you think represents what the best WR2 can average. But whether what we expect to see from WR2 is just 55 yards per game or 80 yards per game.............the fact remains that 35 is what he averaged for his first 36 games in the NFL.........and that wouldn't be even CLOSE to good enough. When you look at it objectively.........it's A LOT to ask of Davis to make that big of a production jump without giving him some significant competition.............which Jake Kumerow is not.

I don't know if Peters would be willing to be a backup.........he joined the Bears in mid-August last year and played pretty well last year as a starting LT for Chicago.........he's just a freak of nature like that. And he did it for a mere $1.75M. He may wait until camp again and pick a place where he thinks he can start...............but he's never played in a Super Bowl.......he was on IR when Philly went.........so maybe he would be willing to join Buffalo. I don't think it's very likely at all that Tommy Doyle could stay ahead of Jason Peters on a depth chart. Doyle had 1 snap at LT in 2021.......and promptly gave up a sack. There is a chasm between solid LT play and what should be expected from Doyle at this point. Hopefully Doyle develops into a guy who can back up at RT/BlockingTE/RG and maybe become a starting quality player eventually.........but they need a swing tackle who can actually play LT in 2021. Right now if there is an injury or another illness related issue with Dawkins then Spencer Brown has to move to LT.............and he was a pretty bad pass blocker last year.........that is a situation that would be good to avoid.

The training staff and the emphasis on doing the right things has always made a big difference with regard to avoiding injuries. When Rex was here I took a ton of grief on TSW for calling out the Bills organization and certain players........like the constantly hamstrung LeSean McCoy...........for all the soft tissue and joint injuries that were sidelining players...........when that hadn't been the case under the more demanding Doug Marrone. There was a lot of mocking about players with injuries drinking too much booze, etc.. But if you followed the team you knew the differences between staffs. Wade Phillips had the same injuries issues when he was here..........the more lax the staff is about training and techniques.........the more ST and joint injuries. It's not as random as some people have long wanted to believe. The current Bills training staff and what they ask of players has been a game changer, IMO.

Yanks lousy bats wasted "Nestor Sunday" 12 K's in 5 scoreless innings..........including an immaculate inning.

"The United By Football........A Season in the USFL" episode one featured an exchange with former Orchard Park, NY HS and Tarleton State QB.......the USFL #4 overall pick........Ben Holmes and his NJ General teammate where he was asked if he was a Bills fan.......and he said he wasn't a sports fan of any kind and didn't watch sports except for some golf occasionally. @Doc would be incredulous to hear that an aspiring pro football player......from Orchard Park no less........didn't follow pro football.

I know that if I accused the team of playing the lesser player in Sanders only because he was making more money than the better player Davis..........you would ask me for a link/proof. So we have to make the assumption that he actually wasn't outplaying Sanders..........whether that be because of the recurring foot/ankle issues or just not practicing well or because of distractions caused by having different vax protocols...........whatever it was.........he wasn't getting it done in practice and subsequently was not getting the snaps. As for the 6 "really great" games..........you have a really low bar for "really great". He only has two 100 yard games in 32 regular season contests.........and those were relative outliers..........and "barely" 100.........105 versus the Jets this year and the other one was 107 yards in the blowout finale against Miami in 2020. For perspective.........Robert Foster had three 100 yards games AND a 94 yard game in 2018 for the Bills. Foster's 4th highest total that season.......94 yards.........would be Davis' 3rd highest career regular season game total. And in the playoffs Davis has his great game against KC and in the other 4 games he averaged.........wait for it........35 yards. So he has one 200+ yard game.........and the other 36 games of his NFL career he's averaged 35 yards per game. So while I think he's shown a lot of promise and I didn't say he was a 1-game wonder...........you put those words in my mouth..........he actually kinda' is a 1 game wonder statistically.

My concern with Dane Jackson isn't how he'll play........he should play fine. My concern is him being healthy..........like Spencer Brown he missed some time with injuries as a rookie. That said........they need depth at both corner and tackle. Personally I am hoping for a veteran CB like Haden and also hoping they sign Jason Peters for cheap as the swing tackle to address both positions with veterans.

I don't know how you compute that Stafford and Ramsey weren't each worth 2 first round picks and a day 3 pick? Only about 50% of 1st round picks get their options picked up.........which is the minimum indication that the players weren't failed picks. Then there is the level of 1st rounders like Tremaine Edmunds who didn't earn the option being picked up but because the decision had to be made after year 3 the team takes a chance and is stuck hoping for them to raise their play to be worth it. The Broncos are paying Bradley Chubb his guaranteed 5th year option coming off a 0 sack 2021 season. So, basically, first rounders actually playing like first rounders is a less than a 50/50 proposition. So knowing this.........what are the odds of getting a stud QB like Stafford and an elite CB like Ramsey with that haul of 4 #1 picks and a couple day 3's? Yeah.......HIGHLY unlikely. He increased his chances of success with those picks tremendously.

I hope he steps up and seizes the #2 role.......he could have done that last season too.........instead he had a sophomore slump. A lot of fans are just taking it for granted that he is going to be great because of that KC game..........they forget the foot/ankle injuries that recurred again in 2021........and the loss clinching drop at the end of the Jax game...........or his 3 catches on 13 targets game...........and his missing the biggest regular season game of the year in NE because he refused to get vaxxed.........it's certainly no sure thing that he becomes a star just because he had one big game.

Of course any WR that they draft at #25 should have the potential to be an NFL WR1 by his second season. And the reality is that Gabe Davis has only been a 35 yard per game receiver over his first 2 regular seasons and McKenzie and Crowder combined for just over 600 yards receiving last season. Statistically that's not a proven successful group.........that's one of the worst 2-3-4 combo's in the league based on 2021 production. We can make assumptions that Davis is ready to break out but Jake Kumerow is the top backup X and Z receiver on this team.........Crowder and McKenzie are just slot receivers...........that is razor thin depth at X and Z because Kumerow STINKS. But they shouldn't just draft a WR in round 1 to address a need............that pick should be the best player at a premium position. Assuming they won't draft a QB........WR1/PassRusher1/LT1 are the other premium positions in the Bills O and D............CB1 is such a position in some defenses......but not inherently so in the Bills zone defense. A 3rd-4th round CB could easily end up a rookie starter on a #1 ranked defense in the Bills scheme and likely be a significant athletic upgrade to Levi Wallace. Not saying they won't draft another CB in round 1 to play opposite Tre White...........but the difference between a lot of first round CB's and guys that they could find on day 2 or day 3 are often traits that aren't put to much use in the Bills D. There is a misguided notion that drafting a big CB who runs a 4.4 is going to allow them to play man defense and throw a blanket on WR's like Tyreek Hill..........they aren't doing that and that 4.4 CB ain't covering a Tyreek Hill in man even if they did.

The strength of Beane isn't personnel work.........he's done well in his few trades..........but he's been pretty lousy at free agency and his drafts haven't yielded nearly enough difference makers. I don't think he belongs near the top at all for the scope of his personnel work...........but his work stewarding the franchise in other areas has been superb. The two ENORMOUS......FRANCHISE ALTERING........ things Beane has done are: 1A) Draft Josh Allen.......first time the Bills franchise had drafted a QB with their first 1st round pick since 1960 and it's panned out wonderfully. 1B) Get the Pegula's to agree to turn over full control to he and McDermott ......first time in franchise history a meddling owner isn't undermining the team. As Belichick once said.........you gotta' be making bad decisions all the time to stay bad in the NFL. And prior to McBeane's arrival that's ultimately what was happening. So while Beane has done some really stupid things.......like giving a guy like Star Lotulelei a 5 year $50M deal when his market was like 1 year $4M............it hasn't blown up on them because he and McDermott have been in sync. There is no push and pull between them and they run the whole show. That might not seem like much but when you have a franchise QB there is A LOT of room for error............you really just have to not f*ck it up to be a contender...........and that has proven harder than it sounds in many places. If Beane actually starts getting better at drafting and evaluating free agents and handling the cap.........which is certainly possible with experience.........they could become a special franchise.