BADOLBILZ

"He's just not Matt Barkley. Which I hate."

Yeah he's a RB in the "if you need 3 he will give you 4 (and so forth)" vein. The definition of average ypc production.......but at 230#. Which is plenty for RB4. Just wish it was no guarantees and vet minimum. Which it could be but guessing it's a $1.7M with some guarantees.

Yeah I think it's a time/reps issue. You can always add players if you have injuries. And with the two spring league's there should be an abundance of bodies in shape with recent tape. Also only 3 preseason games now.

A guy to keep an eye on at DT in the Bills future is Arik Armstead. Had an injury plagued year and a big production drop-off so I wouldn't be totally shocked if the 49ers cut bait rather than pay his base salary. He met a girl in Buffalo after a 49ers/Bills game and subsequently married into a family of Bills fans. If he changes teams in the next 10-11 months I could see him coming to the Bills.

Yeah I don't see him as a guy who receives one of those $1.7M deals with $500K plus in guarantees.........but I think he gets the vet min and some assurance that he gets a PS spot. I don't think that's one of the UFA's Beane is referring to. I think those are both DL.

Definitely agree it should provide a big advantage in the running game........in all situations..........but getting the Bills to run the ball more is at least something of a win for the opposing defense if how they defend the pass doesn't have to change. That's where the floor of the strategy would fail to be a 1st-round-pick kinda' result, IMO. For it to really work out.......Kincaid needs to be able to regularly beat the defensive back in the passing game. And it's the confidence that he can do just that which made the Bills use that pick on him, IMO. As PFF noted he was the best receiving weapon in the draft.

He nailed his second pick as offensive coordinator with Ben Johnson. Johnson was the most effective OC in the NFL last year relative to the talent on hand. I suspect that if/when Ben Johnson leaves for a HC job the meaty head of Dan Campbell will be on the chopping block very soon after.

It's a valid concern. He needs to be a better receiver than a lot of very good TE's before him for it to work the way Beane was talking it up. It's probably most notable that putting a good CB on Jimmy Graham basically erased his impact in Seattle. And in Buffalo we have seen Antoine Winfield and Tre White really neutralize Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski at times in the past. He really needs to be in the range of Kyle Pitts or Kelce. If he just ends up being an upgrade on Knox they will need to upgrade the quality of targets at WR. Which would already have been on the immediate to-do list with Diggs getting up there in age.

Yeah, as I've said before........if you don't have one of the top 10 DT's in football your DT room probably looks a lot like everyone else's. There was a big influx of DT's into the league over a number of years so there is an abundance of adequate ones. The problem is that Beane has paid good money for a ton of minimum wage level DT's like Lotulelei, Butler, Q Jefferson and Settle. Gave Daquon Jones about twice what he was earning in TN and Carolina to basically do the same job at the same level, as well. Not really worried about DT in 2024.

I doubt any fanbase was more in on Mahomes than Bills fans either. He was already getting hyped here on TSW in June of 2016. @thebandit27 was all over it.

I think ideally you have a bunch of late picks and get a mix of value players who achieved in college and have a good chance of helping the team.........and then a couple of guys with traits that may have a lot more potential than shown in college. Part of the reason Whaley's drafts look worse in hindsight was that he tended to throw a lot more picks at big traits underachievers. I don't think that really made or broke him.......not getting a QB did that.

DK Decaf

It's simple really........use the early portion of the draft to address premium positions. Edge/island players are the individuals who have the opportunity to change games by themselves by virtue of their positions. That is why they are the most expensive of players to acquire. The Lions had numerous ways to do so in round 1 and did so with neither pick. Now they have Jared Goff as their long term QB solution.........a hole opposite Hutchinson at DE.........and holes at CB. And that is NOW. You should be addressing premium positions even when you don't have current needs there.

I guess the process is called Dolorimetry..........and Gouraige may have practiced Dolerimetry instead........which is disarming an opponent just by use of numerous kung-fu-like kicks.

I liked LaPorta a lot. I thought he was TE3 with a higher upside than TE2(Mayer). Otherwise........just a lot of poor positional drafting. Generally speaking your 1st round picks should be $20M-$30M aav type players when they eventually hit UFA. Only about 50% of first rounders play well enough to get their option picked up but almost NONE of the RB's do. The Lions have long term needs at a lot of premium positions. They failed to take advantage of a huge opportunity with the extra picks in this draft, IMO. They took the "you can't go broke making a profit" approach and that doesn't yield difference makers.

What's remarkable is that the reason he only played 1 game is that he had a season ending injury immediately in year 1. Now he's Mr. Durable at one of the toughest positions to stay healthy at in football. Those guys take a beating. He's cracked the code in this regard. TE's entering the league should be looking as much at how he stays healthy as any aspect. Some of it is probably genetics........his brother is durable too.........but there is more to it than that.

Yeah that's the likelihood I think. They've moved on from him. They aren't going go pay him $19M to catch passes from a backup QB and possibly finish last in the division and then additionally risk him getting injured and guaranteeing his 2024 salary as well.

It's not. No. Still no top-half-of-league WR2. Hopefully this Kincaid plan works out but if not they need somebody to play way above reasonable expectations based on their track record to be a very good WR corps. Right now it's Diggs, a very good WR3 and a bunch of question marks.

My initial impression is that Minnesota might have had the best UDFA haul so far. Their organization gets great marks with players in almost all aspects so gotta' believe that plays a big role in their recruiting.

It's been a bit like college recruiting too. Sometimes they have handshake deals with a player and then he backs out and signs elsewhere. Until you get them on the dotted line they can change course and not even tell you. So they likely just don't want egg on their face even though they know the times have changed and people demand that info now.

I don't think it would even cost a 5th for Murray. He's really fallen out of favor in LA. That was one of those head scratcher 1st round picks that had that 1990's Buffalo Bills draft feel that used to turn me off to watching John Butler draft. And I agree that he'd be a fine option for Buffalo for low compensation. His cap hit is $1.7M so he's right in Beane's alley price-wise. But as you mentioned earlier.......Spector was intriguing in his limited preseason opportunity. Guy seems instinctive for the position.

Yeah the UDFA thread is one you gotta' be vigilant about if you start it or the board will get angry with you. I think @MAJBobby has been doing it in recent years because we had issues with people wanting to start the thread but then vanishing. It will be 3-4 days before all the UDFA's are sorted out.

Agree. But those are the numbers now. There may be injuries or Edwards or Boettger might not bounce back from past injuries........a lot can change. I think they still need a swing tackle to add to that mix. There aren't any LT options in that group unless one considers Bates or Brown that guy. Quessenberry was the worst pass blocking RT in NFL his last year in TN so don't want him starting games at LT under any circumstance. Richard Gouraige may even have a realistic shot to make the roster.

Absolutely correct. However: 1. That doesn't make the Lions decision any better. 2. TE is a position that has mattered a great deal for many SB winning teams over that period. RB is not. Regardless of where they were drafted. 6 of the last 9 SB winners have featured a HOF level starting TE. And that doesn't count Zach Ertz.......who was a star for the Philadelphia team that beat NE and in the middle of a 5 year stretch where he averaged 86 receptions per season.

And he was a good value as a 5th round type(where I took him in the Matt Miller 7 round draft thread). There are years where the positional depth isn't good at guard where he could have been a top 100 pick. Beane seemed to indicate that he just stuck out as the best player.........which is how the draft should be treated. Needs change fast. You pass on a guy with starting potential late in the draft one year and you may find yourself reaching for one early the next year.