starrymessenger

Football players are big. He is big. Check. Football players have spent years learning how to play the game. He doesn't know a football from a pineapple. X.

Brady's skills have declined IMO, but his experience and smarts are top rung. Overall clearly still one of the top QBs. And he can still execute at the same elite level on most downs/series. It's just that he can't do it as consistently, as in all the time, only most of the time, and he is more prone to having breakdowns in his execution, notably his accuracy. What the Pats did last year was mostly because of a strong running game. As soon as that was shut down, against Denver, they were pretty much done. If the Bills have a good QB (as in Manuel taking that big step up in his game) I see no reason why the Bills cannot be fully competitive in the AFC East, including against the Pats. If EJ fails to improve it will be a long frustrating year IMO. I don't buy the "he doesn't have to be very good to win" business. He absolutely needs to be good for the Bills to have a chance.

If EJ doesn't pan out I agree it may weigh heavily on Whaley's reputation. I personally doubt that Whaley is "all in" on EJ in the sense of being delusional. He understands that there is significant risk. But that is the risk that every GM takes when he drafts a 1st round QB. A first round QB not called Luck that is. And there is only one of those, every 20 years or so. When asked "how do you know if your QB is a franchise guy" he said " when you know you know". And he has recently said that he wants to see EJ take a big step forward this year. He wasn't saying that he knew EJ to be a franchise QB right now, or that he knew for certain that he was going to make that leap. Whaley is not stupid. He's hoping, as we all are. Of course in the meantime he will fully and publicly support his QB, as he should. Should EJ flatline and not show improvement, it will be interesting to see how Whaley reacts, and how long it takes for him to do so. He may be able to buy some time and improvise if the team is otherwise ready to win. He may be able to deal with the adversity in a resourceful way rather than simply succumbing to it. That could turn out to be the real measure of the man as a GM. Obviously it would be great if it never came to that. As has been pointed out, having a first round selection in 2015 does not mean that you get to pick a franchise QB. Far from it. So it's not like Whaley has foolishly passed on one.

I just about choke every time I think about the price paid for Sammy Watkins. He needs to be elite for that trade to work. We gave up a first (and 4th). However most first round picks do not turn into elite players. Most actually underperform relative to expectations. Many are busts. What are the chances of Sammy being not just good but special? IMO they are pretty good so the risk taken is a good one, or at least not a bad one. Whaley has loaded a lot of chips on the EJ square. According to conventional NFL thinking, if EJ fails Whaley is probably done in Buffalo. I am not very optimistic about EJs chances of becoming a reliable to good NFL starter, especially in the time frames needed to help Whaley and Marrone. He could wind up having a late bloomer Doug Williams type of career. For me Bud Elliot's piece on EJ that came out in Tomahawk Nation just before the 2013 draft is pretty much the truth and is confirmed by what I think I saw when he played. I don't know that his "flaws" are easily correctable though I hope they are. Whether EJ pans out or not I fully support and agree with the decision to draft him when and where they did. They had no QB. They took the guy with unquestionably the highest ceiling amongst those available. Trading down netted Kiko who will be a standout for years to come. Picking EJ was the right thing to do. It also ushered in a fresh and radical change in philosophy towards an aggressive risk taking approach. On the monopoly board of the NFL, a conservative, one might even say complacent attitude will send you directly to jail for fourteen years. You need to take some chances and you need to catch a few breaks along the way. Anyone who likes what Whaley did in the 2014 draft has to like what he did in the 2013 draft. Both drafts are products of the same philosophy. So I think Whaley is a very smart football exec who has done well, whether all his moves pan out or not. But I don't think he gets all the credit. Buddy laid some of the groundwork in reforming the scouting network and some of Whaley's senior talent evaluation guys look to me to be pretty good too. It takes time to completely overhaul a failed franchise. Doesn't happen overnight when the rot runs so deep. I agree with what was said earlier about the Steeler precedent. I think Whaley is showing his pedigree in visualizing a team that is physically dominant on both sides of the ball with very high octane potential at the skill positions on offence. Here's hoping he is able to pull it off. If he does then you will have to pay the man to keep him from migrating to a more glamorous venue. The EJ/Ben comparisons are interesting and intriguing. When Ben was a rook he adequately game managed a good Steeler team. He was competent, wasn't asked to do too much and was able to execute competently. Of course that is actually doing a lot if you're a rookie QB, but of course Ben was indeed a franchise guy who was always able to take the next step. Well see if EJ can fit that mould.

Ok yeah sure but on the other hand he was all in on Blaine Gabbert.

Ahern has permanently spoiled the well for TEs who walk around with an ankle bracelet.

Unfortunately (for him) you're probably right. Very low % probability that he turns into anything. Just another one of those guys who would be good if he were somebody else. Most people are not cut out to succeed in ultra competitive environments, no matter how gifted. Wouldn't necessarily hold that against anyone on a personal level. NFL is not for everyone.

Last years class is not comparable to this years. Any of the top 6-7 guys could have been # 1s last year. Just look at the players not the draft order. Would anyone credibly compare DJ with Watkins as a prospect. I wouldn't.

Don't think he was used to seeing guys at Donald's level, and he didn't adjust on the fly. Doesn't mean he can't adjust. AD got leverage and rolled him. Big deal. Doesn't negate years of good tape.

Not a fit in Chip's system. His game is hitting the hole quick inside. Has trouble when he tries to bounce outside, sort of like CJ. He's fine coming out of the backfield. Whaley (or maybe it was Monos) were referring to this. Zero fumbles in 75 touches last year. AP has similar issues. Both have improved their ball security. Have to believe it can be coached, at least sometimes.

I guess you're right. Wasn't Tom Brady a sixth round pick?

It looks as though just about everyone agrees on one thing at least, - EJ's lower body mechanics are flawed with resulting inaccuracy in his throws. So fans who support EJ say that him tidying up his mechanics should solve the problem, which is a reasonable conclusion. But really the question is "can he cleanup the technical flaws in his game". Does an intelligent, athletically gifted EJ have the physical ability to properly set up, transfer his weight into the throwing motion etc...? Unquestionably he does, and I'm sure that in shorts with his QB coach by his side he executes the proper mechanics perfectly. But come game time can he do it when the bullets are flying? In other words, are his poor mechanics simply a correctable flaw or the result of a more basic problem, namely inadequate instincts, vision, ability to quickly read and react, anticipate the course of live action, etc... If that is the problem, and the difference in recognition and between success and failure is measured in a second or a fraction thereof, then that is not going to get better, or good enuf, to enable him to succeed at this level of play. Given the rather obvious issue, the fact that he is smart enuf and talented enuf to execute the right mechanics and given also that he has been the recipient of good coaching for as long as he has played the game, the presumption should be that he can't do it, or can't do it consistently enuf. But I agree that the best way to find out is to turn him loose with the benefit of a full off season, an improved O-line and additional weapons in the passing game.

Agree and yes I was referring to his ability to read and react re shoulders up. Not saying he is unable to digest a pro playbook ( tho even that still needs to be proven). More his questionable ability to execute it, which to me implies not only a technical but also a cognitive component, being the inherent ability to intuitively anticipate the course of live action (whatever his faults, Manziel has this in spades). In fact in any sport the great ones have it. My concern is that faculty seems to be a dead zone in EJs case. If that assessment is accurate rest assured it is a fatal flaw.

Actually so far his problems are from the waist down and from the shoulders up. No one questions his heart tho.

Sure. I expect they will be evaluating all of our QBs very closely this off season. They may very well decide that either one of Tuel or Lewis need to go to make room for a guy who is more likely to be able to step up right away if needed. Don't know that Josh is that guy. I like Lewis's moxy but he's been around longer than Tuel and it maybe that his upside is more limited. What Tuel needs to do IMO, if he is able, is establish that even if his physical skills are not his strong suit he can more than make up for it based on what he has above, not below, his shoulders - smarts, good timing and chemistry with his receivers. JMO but I think he might be better than people give him credit for and could be something of a sleeper as soon as this year. Certainly not ready to write him off just as EJ should not be written off.

You may be right of course, but you might be wrong too. The Bills brass seem to like Tuel and I've got to think there may be a (good) reason for that. Whether a young QB prospect develops is usually hard to predict. It is not beyond the range of possibilities that Tuel does progress and, heaven forbid, EJ does not. Tuel has good, if not prototypical, size. He's not going to make the deep out from the opposite hash, but that is not make or break. It's a nice to have but no QB makes his bread and butter with that throw. Tuel is of the same QB type as Chad Pennington. He's not a first round guy like Chad was and he does not sport the same college CV, but who is to say how he might (or might not) develop? Only time will tell.

Maybe a 30-35 percent chance of developing into a reliable starter. He's got all the physical tools. The question has always been whether he can use them to full advantage. He got by on superior athleticism at FSU. You need a lot more than that to succeed in the pros. People say he's got 2014 to prove himself. Some say 2015 too. Whaley and Marrone are in a win now mode and they are quietly building an O that should be competitive, especially if they can land a RT and add another weapon or two. EJ needs to step up big time from the get go. If he fails to progress I doubt that the Bills sacrifice 2014 to his development, let alone 2015. If he is holding the team back, they will sit him IMO.

Those who say the risk that Clowney would take the "money" and do a disappearing act may be right but given his ceiling he would be unbelievably foolish to behave like that. The dollars are not in his rookie contract. It's in a Mario Williams deal that he could only get after establishing himself as a premier professional player. He'd be unbelievably stupid and lazy to settle his talent for chump change and pass up the chance to roll in money forever. So I just don't see it. He goes top three IMO and will be a force to be reckoned with from the get go. People said Ngata was lazy too.

I know that there are two of them but is Shannon the one that looks exactly like Miles the Mascot. If so I thought he was pretty funny. Didn't even realize he had a speech defect tho so maybe I was laughing at him instead of with him without knowing it.

I think you're onto something there. Something good. Keep up the good work. They will look even stupider if they trot out a guy who drowns out the crowd week after week with a tremendous sucking sound. If you've made a mistake refusing to correct it will only make matters worse. Not saying EJ will suck. Just addressing the hypothetical that was posited, which by the way is a possibility.

Or unless he totally blows, which is also possible. Then what? He gets 16 starts only if he is healthy and shows improvement. IMO the Bills fully intend to be competitive in 2014. If EJ shows no hope of getting them there they will want to have an alternative rather than the only option being to write off another entire year. I don't think they stand pat with what they have. I think they will be looking to bring somebody in this year.

I don't know that Martin could be a good guard. The mindset of a good guard is badass (though not psycho like Ritchie). Martin doesn't seem to be wired for that. He looks to be TJ Graham in an O-lineman's body. Sort of unfortunate.

Agree.

I wouldn't do this now. I think the Bills have better options to explore this year thru the draft. I really did think that we were going to get him for Lynch back when, but I guess Thompson figured Starks was good enuf.

True. The class is deep and talented with both newfangled and throwback TE prospects. A number of interesting sleepers as well once you get past the frontrunners who garner all the media attention. Personally I think the draft for WRs and TEs shapes up as a mid and maybe even later round exercise as far as the Bills are concerned (unless something unexpected happens like Watkins dropping to # 9). A chance for Whaley to show as a good picker.