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Lost game Twitter rants Demands a new stadium Kathryn Smith lawsuit

I really liked this write-up. I agree with Freddie's Dead that WR's are more like C/C+. Woods drop, Goodwin & Powell not coming down with balls in competition with DB's. Call it C+. Agree on ST's. Have to mention the great adherence to coverage responsibilities on the fake punt (big positive) but also had the block in the back on the kickoff in 2nd half (smaller negative). Tate could have fair caught a couple of those punts rather than taking the hit right away.

Bradford has played very well these past three games. His career QB rating is now up to 81.9. That is almost up to Hill's career rating of 85.0. I have seen them play and agree that Bradford does much better on the eyeball test than Hill. Vike's defense has been great so as I was saying it's not clear to me they wouldn't be 4-0 even if Hill was playing instead of Bradford. We'll never know. But Hill was in fact the quarterback for the first game of the season. Bradford is signed for one more year with a cap hit of $17M in 2017. In a finite resource environment like the NFL I'm just saying I would not have given up two draft picks including a number one for a guy who is marginally better than Hill and has a history of injuries so that he can compete with Teddy Bridgewater. But if they go to the Super Bowl this year of course they will be happy they made it. Or, maybe they are worried Bridgewater's injuries are potentially career threatening or multi-year, then I guess I can understand it.

Yeah, even GM's who make some good moves still make ill advised ones from time to time. That example is a case in point. Another example: I know they are 4-0 but the Vikings giving up a 1st and 3rd (or 4th? can't recall) for Bradford was foolish IMO. I think they could be 4-0 with Shaun Hill too. And Bridgewater comes back next season. Anyway, I agree Dareus isn't going anywhere else in the NFL for a few years.

Your points about the lack of financial flexibility are compelling if accurate. I hadn't actually analyzed the contract and played out the scenarios and I guess I need to do that to post on this board. So although the point is moot I absolutely think there are GM's who would give up a 1st rounder for a guy like Dareus. In a league where Tim Tebow is taken in the first round, a full slate of draft picks are traded for Ricky Williams, and a GM trades up a couple of spots by giving up his #1 the following year to take a WR in the deepest WR draft perhaps in history, I think there is always a decent shot at finding a greater fool.

I agree with the first half of this but the right comparison isn't the chance of him smoking dube again vs. a first rounder being as good a player as Dareus, rather it's the weighted average comparison of: (% Chance Dareus turns the corner in his life x How good he is) + (% Chance he bombs out x ZERO ) vs. (% Chance a 1st Rounder stays straight x How good he might be) + (% Chance 1st rounder bombs out x ZERO) So assuming the 1st rounder can stay off the wacky weed, avoid street racing cars in Cheektowaga, etc we are just getting a player who may be between bust and superstar, most likely a contributor. Whereas keeping Dareus is a binomial distribution...either we have a super star player or we have literally nothing as he won't be on the field. The key variable is % Chance Dareus turns his life around. Is it 10%, 50%, 90%? No one knows. My take is just that if it's even close to 50/50 I'd rather not make that bet if someone offered even a late first round pick and we could handle the cap consequences. (BTW opening up cap space is another benefit of moving on from Dareus; i.e. get a player and have more flexibility sign FA's). I sure as heck hope the guy can walk the line for his own sake and the team. I'll be rooting for him to do so.

If they could get someone to give up a first rounder for him, I'd jump on it. Talent-wise he's worth keeping even at the huge contract price, but he's one toke away or one missed drug test away from being gone for an entire season. Based on history I believe it's greater than 50% chance one of those things, or something worse, is going to happen and the Bills will be left with no asset whatsoever. Better to get some value and move on from this guy.

I'd take Gronk and Bennett over Clay and any other Bills TE. O-lines may be equivalent. I'd take Gostkowski over Carpenter. Otherwise Bills talent matches up well.

I kan too reed. (My point was it was a meaningless cut-off of 5 rounds and looking at the entire draft and comparing to the NFL long term average was much more insightful in terms of the Bills tendency to draft WR's in relation to the rest of the league.)

Don't confuse people with accurate data and contextually sound reasoning. It takes away from their ability to argue whatever point they wanted to make. Come on man, look at our Presidential candidates in the two major parties! They aren't tied to facts and reason so why should we be?

Can't say the guy doesn't produce.

I think I posted on page 3 of this thread, stayed away for a day, and now it's on page 24. Holy sH*t! Do I need to go back and read the next 21 pages? Can someone summarize please? I feel like by the time I read it all another 20+ pages might have been created.

I will answer since you took the time to make such an insightful and logically sound response. I don't know the answer to Watkins true condition and neither do you. So I have to go off observations and the data at hand. The guy has had approximately 8,327 injuries since entering the league and this past Sunday missed his 4th game in 2.3 seasons. This would tend to indicate he is relatively tough and endures pain enough to play while injured. (Note, the games missed number is correct but I am just guessing on the number of injuries). In terms of observation, he clearly has played at less than 100% or outright injured in the past. The first two weeks he looked my my grandmother running on that sore foot but at least he gave it a go. There are numerous examples the past two years as well. So if you have an alternate set of data or observations relating to the NFL as opposed to your High School track team, please do share them. Although I do enjoy a good high school track yarn now and then...

Also experts in injuries, pain tolerance, and what it takes to play in the NFL. I guess the board is populated with former NFL players who are now medical doctors. Who knew there were so many?

Someone above asked what 'RPI' was RPI = Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Very unusual for an NFL coordinator to have attended and played football at not only a Division III school but one that is highly selective in terms of being a high end science and engineering school. I.e. a bunch of geeks. And yes, I am an alumni and yes I realize him going to RPI is no way indicative him being a great head coach, but I'm allowed to be a homer here.

None of them attended the finest Engineering school in New York State as Patricia did. None rocked that level of beard either. I think it's easy to see the differences here.

This. Bills could use an RPI guy.

It's stuff like this that keeps me coming back. Self infatuation much?

I'd say first overall is looking like a definite potential for the Buffalo squad this year!

I agree, except for EJ Manuel as opposed to his evil Nordic twin, Erik. -Just wikipedia'd and of course his frickin' name is Erik. How could I not know that?

The guy is always injured! Do we have any reason to think he's faking it? I think it's the contrary - he pushes himself to get on the field even when he's far below optimal. To me he looked like a guy with a really sore foot out there on Thursday. His 2+ years he's always looks like a guy with a leg or torso issue. I think we've seen him 95%+ healthy maybe twice. So, as a Bills fan this sucks. But I don't know why all the hate for Watkins. Are we mad at him because Whaley gave up too much to get him? That's clearly not his fault. Are we mad because his body seems to be failing him and suffering injuries at an above average rate for an NFL wide receiver? Are we mad at him because he tries to play though injuries and clearly can't perform at his best? If it's just the tweets then I really don't get it. He's a young guy tweeting stuff...I already forgot about that. The whole team is a dumpster fire right now so it's easy to pick out Watkins and criticize the performance but we could do the same in most areas of the team. How about those CB's last game? Where is Charles Clay? Offensive line with Ravens? So many to pick from and we aren't even talking about coaches yet.

I get the sense you feel twice as strongly about this as most people.

Thanks for the in-person write-up...always a different angle then on TV, subjected to the Wisdom of Solomon. My only comment which is contrary to some I've seen and the OP is that I have no problem with the 1st half challenge. Challenges are about risk/reward. Given what we could see on the replays, it was possible the call would be overturned and called a TD. Call it 1/4 or 1/5 chance. Now if it were 2nd half or even 1st quarter, I might say don't challenge as the risk of losing the timeout outweighs it. But in that game situation they probably weren't going to need the time out anyway so it's worth taking the shot at getting the call and de-risking having to get it on 3rd or 4th down. I don't know about running the same play again as they tried before the challenge...some might say that's the last play the Ravens would expect!

I think what happens is if the perception that the Bills will make the playoffs is say(for example), 25% or 33%, then that means it's 67%-75% that they won't. So if 39 out of 40 sportswriters simply 'play the odds' in their predictions, they won't pick the Bills to make the playoffs. But that doesn't mean the Bills are 97.5% likely to miss the playoffs with only 2.5% chance to make them. The underlying probabilities are still 25%-33% chance to make the playoffs. Same argument for teams considered likely to make the playoffs - even if the underlying odds are 80% likely, close to 100% of sportswriters will pick them to make it.

Not Bills related but football season related (for week 1): School back in session Kids productively busy I’m very relieved