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I've seen a couple of times that Penix is a guy who will likely go in the first round after the first 4 guys are off the board. Seahawks were mentioned along with the Raiders and Vikings (if they can't trade up).

There was a really interesting conversation on Sirius the other day about how the NIL deals are making kids stay in school longer and causing some issues with transferring and competition however the huge benefit for the NFL is teams now get to see how kids react to getting paid. It's a huge piece that they also had to wonder about but now they have real actionable information. Does the player still work as hard, does he still put in the effort on training, or does he rest on his laurels and not try as hard. It used to be making it to the NFL was when you got life changing money. Now kids are getting it as Freshman and teams get a few years of data. They mentioned that it helps teams know who has the drive or plays for the love of the game as opposed to just playing for the paycheck. I posted earlier in the thread: Instead of using the whole 2nd round, I used the top 7 wrs in each draft. I think it is very reasonable that the Bills will get their choice of at least a top 7 wr barring a historical never before seen run on wrs. The success numbers are actually better than his numbers for trading up. @transplantbillsfan didn't respond to it though I would be interested to hear what he has to say.

I can spin your numbers differently though to favor staying put or trading back using the same data. As 20 and 21 are the comparable deep drafts: 2020 - Had a ridiculous 5 of the first 8 receivers drafted be a hit. Furthermore, the hits were drafted 3,5,6,7,8. The busts were 1,2, and 4. This data wouls say there is room to either stay put or trade back and still get a quality wr. 2021 - 5 of the first 7 were hits. The hits were 1,2,3,6, and 7. The misses were 4 and 5. This would say you could stay put and still have a 5/7 chance to get a good wr unless you think 7 wrs will go before 28 this year. I wont ignore your other data but itll be briefer. 2019 the 2 1st round guys were busts and the only 2 hits were taken in the 2nd round. Would support a trade back or stay put. 2022 - i think jameson williams will break out this year but for now I wont count him. 4 of the first 7 were hits. This year would support trading up maybe but watson was a hit in the 2nd round so we could have hung tight if our scouting is to be trusted. 2023 - way to early to make any sort of calls on these guys. Even using your thought though 4 out of 7 guys hit. So unless you think 7 guys will go before 28 the Bills have a 20 out of 31 chance to pick an impact wr or a 65% chance. Or with your addition of jsn and Johnston it goes to 71% or adding ruggs 74%. Better odds without the hypotheticals and less odds without them because the actual info has more data points.

He quit on the bears. I never want a player like that on the Bills.

When the season ended and I started to looking at receivers I came upon a comp of keon coleman as kelvin benjamin. Beane was in Carolina when he was drafted at pick.... 28. There are so many guys I'll be ok with the Bills drafting and Coleman is one of them. His one handed catch against cuse was a thing of beauty. He would be a big bodied red zone threat and he excels at the most important thing for a wr. He catches the ball.

They do have Keenan Allen and DJ Moore along with Cole Kmet. Add in that they have Swift at RB and I think they have pretty good weapons already. Would you say he brings his lunch pail to work? A real first in last out kind of guy? Maybe he's scrappy and sneaky athletic? A real gamer? Plays the game the right way?

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - Cardinals Rome Odunze, Washington - Bears Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Chiefs Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Jaguars Xavier Worthy Texas- Bills Bonus Bills pick - worthy

How do you land on that? Because both Ross and Worthy run fast? I like both players before I go into this but here is some comparisons and why I like Worthy more: McConkey had 1 game with 7 catches, 2 games with 6 catches, and 7 games with 5 catches. In his career! He had 9 games with 1 catch. Worthy had 5 games with 6 or more catches just last year. He had 2 games in his career with 1 catch. McConkey's best year was 58 catches 762 yards and 7 tds. Worthy's worst year was 60 catches, 760 yards, and 9 tds. (he did have a year with 5 tds but that came along with 75 catches for 1014 yards) Admittedly McConkey did miss a chunk of time with injury last year which affected his stats but also he missed some time with knee back and ankle injuries through his career. In my mind that is a strike against him.

I was going to send a trade request to you to try and dissuade you but ultimately didn't want to hold up the draft. I almost "accidently" posted my pick before yours to try and dissuade you but that would have been dirty pool lol. I knew from the first mock you liked Lassiter a lot and I think the value is there for the Lions to double dip so I was more than a little worried you would do just that.

@NewEra and the 49ers are on the clock. I thought about trying to trade up as I was nervous the last 2 teams might take this guy but they had already selected a CB so I held tight and it paid off. With the 62nd pick the Ravens select Kamari Lassiter CB UGA. From a Ravens fan site: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/03/28/ravens-draft-central/defensive-back-prospects/kamari-lassiter/ Lassiter is an excellent fit with the Ravens on many different fronts. He looks like a Raven with the way he plays the run from the CB position, with an excellent trigger and aggression as well as making form tackles on even bigger ball carriers. He also flies to the football on WR screens. He is intelligent and it keeps him in phase on most type of routes and he has inside out versatility. Georgia deployed him in the slot when facing dangerous weapons there. I don’t think he’s quite as athletic as the Ravens like but that won’t stop them from pulling the trigger on him, I think. The versatility seals it for me as he would enter the CB rotation with Stephens and Humphrey quickly.

Thanks @GunnerBill and @DCOrange! Now I have to go back and watch them all again lol. I am trying hard not to have favorites as they inevitably won't end up on the Bills but I have watched so much on these guys it is near impossible!

To your bolded, that is actually why I am so high on Worthy. You can see that he understands how to set up defenders to miss in the open field. Since he has that tool already, that should really help his route running improve and make him a success in the league. Strangely though there are several instances of him getting caught from behind that surprised me.

The stat of a 30 yard catch in 13 of 14 games is mind boggling to me. Teams had to be game planning to stop that and still couldn't. Add in how much analytics love him and he is another guy I think I am higher on than the consensus.

I appreciate the answer and it makes sense to me. Where I struggle is them being teammates and Worthy outshining Mitchell. To me that says Texas thought Worthy was the better player. I know the draft and nfl are different animals where projection of where they will be matters much more than who they have been but I just feel Worthy is a better player even if he doesn't look the part. Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays? I think Mitchell's quote about not going all out each play was taken out of context and misunderstood but if lack of effort shows up on tape, there isn't really any denying it. I heard an interesting thing on Sirius that I hadn't thought of this morning, the NIL deals are showing teams who will continue to put in the work after getting life changing money. No longer is the NFL there first taste of being set financially so teams can look at who still works hard and on their craft. Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college. @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that? Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28? Or is there someone else you would prefer? I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy? Worthy has the production and speed. Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well. Does it really just come down to height and weight?

I actually think the opposite. Since this is a Bills fan site, the WRs in this draft are going much earlier than I believe they will in the real draft. The GM for the team drafting in front of the Bills admitted to picking Legette just so he wasn't an option for the Bills. The trade back almost worked perfectly as Legette was the 2nd leading vote getter in both v1 and v2. There is a dead spot in round 1 where from picks 11-28 only really the Jags look like a team that may take a wr.

Analytics really seem to love franklin this year. Pff has him very highly rated as well.

I love Bullard here. I also dont think the team should try to find a diamond in the rough if the opportunity to get a very good player presents itself like it has here. Bullard would immediately jump into the starting lineup and upgrade the position. Value and need matchup nicely here. Do you really want to lean on a 4th round or later rookie starter? I don't. Add in that I like Bullard as a player and this was an easy choice for me.

@Alphadawg7 and the cardinals are back on the clock (dang dude leave some picks for the rest of us lol). With the 34th pick the new england patriots waffled an awful lot on this pick but ultimately settled on Xavier Worthy WR Texas. I get that ad mitchell looks like a better football player but worthy has produced more over his career. My favorite trait of Worthys is how he sets up defenders to miss. Sometimes he changes speed, sometimes jukes but you can tell he understand how to set up the defender and then take advantage of their mistakes. I wanted to go ot here but the value didn't match the pick. Then I waffled between McConkey and Worthy. For all the injury concerns with Worthy, McConkey has actual dealt with them.

No i was thinking about cb there but ultimately decided ot was more important. After grabbing flowers last year I will be very surprised if the Ravens go wr again in round 1 especially since flowers was a hit. Wr is certainly in play in round 2 and beyond I just think ol made more sense.

😂 I have to do SOME work at work lol. With the 29th pick the Ravens select JC Latham OT Alabama. The Ravens already traded their RT and are all of a sudden long in the tooth along the offensive line. Latham is a mountain of a human at 6'6 and 342 pounds. We thought about the best available as CB is also a need but are going to play into the team's strength and protect our MVP. @NewEra and SF are on the clock.

59:14 Josh: "pressure gets to people you know" Grant: "well" Josh: "no" awesome. Josh has some sneaky trash talking throughout here lol.

Set to close at 3. I narrowed it down to the 2 options if anyone feels strongly either way make sure you get in your vote. Anyone who voted for any of the other options please recast your vote. FWIW I would do that trade lol.

Poll has been pared down to a group of 5. Have there been any serious trade up offers?

While I agree you throw out the sheet, I still think it is a difficult proposition. Drafting after the Bills are the Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Panthers. All are set at QB. Then you have NE (likely drafting one in the top 3 and if not are you going to help a division rival?), Cardinals (set), Commanders (def taking one at 2), Chargers (set), Titans (first maybe but very doubtful after they took Levis last year), Panthers again, Commanders again, and Packers. Just looking at the 2nd round, the first team that might think about QB is the Falcons at 43 (invested in Cousins or the Raiders at 44 (if they didn't take one of the 2nd tier guys in the first). I still think your original premise of just trade back 5 spots for an extra 3rd is flawed at best if not a pie in the sky dream.