Magox

@GaryPinC When there is a lack of conclusive Evidence, It’s not the evidence that suits me that I consider credible rather the preponderance of it. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that with cross reactive T cell immunities from pas human coronaviruses (common colds) along with around 20%+ COVID-19 antibody infection rate of a particular area/city does create a herd-like immunity. Reaches “burnout”. I probably have at least 10 posts regarding burnout. When cities/areas reach around this level of COVID-19 infections the virus tends to burnout. Prevalency begins to trend lower until the virus essentially run out of steam. The R-naught factor which you referenced gets to a point where there simply aren’t enough hosts to spread the virus efficiently. Why do you think places like Northern Italy, Madrid, Newark, NYC, Bridgeport, Boston, Stockholm, Brussels, among other places just seemed to burnout and not have a hint of reemergence of high viral COVID-19 prevalency? The crossreactive T cell immunities is a seldom heard story that has a lot of oomph to it. There have been recent papers written on it and the data that is available points to there being some there there.

Paywall Can you post the bullet points of each of the five?

What I like about Alex is that he cuts through the mainstream panic porn with facts and data. He's not afraid to go out on a limb and make predictions and far more often than not he is right and the mainstream analysis is wrong. Dude has been a baller when it comes to COVID-19 analysis and data.

You are confusing what I am saying and somehow translating it into this argument in your head. I didn't say that masks, contact tracing nor additional tests shouldn't be conducted. What I said is that when there is an outbreak, that they have a marginal effect. I said that I wear masks, more out of courtesy to my fellow neighbors. That contact tracing and additional testing in a targeted manner can help those that are most vulnerable. But, the idea that they are some sort of golden ticket solution is naive. I could list you tons of examples, which I have in previous posts. I'm not going to keep rehashing them over and over. They are there, if you want to find them, then go back and dig through the posts.

He says there’s evidence to suggest that the only effective face covering might be a visor, because the virus can spread through all mucous membranes, including via the eyes. He worries a cloth covering that only protects the nose and mouth provides a “false sense of security.” “All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen. State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in June that masks are “possibly” to be recommended for people using public transport, but added that such coverings “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way,” in an interview with Dagens Industri. Bundgaard says the simple rules that currently exist in Denmark -- hand-washing, social distancing, self-isolating if you’re sick -- are effective because they’re easy to remember. He worries that using face masks might lead people to be “sloppy” in following the other guidelines. So on this front you were incorrect in your description to why they don't believe masks are that effective, which is something you failed to mention. That you can catch the virus through droplets in your eyes and that mask usage is highly subjective in the sense that people often times wear them wrong and providing a false sense of security. South Korea and Japan all have unique circumstances that differentiate themselves from us. First of all, the level of obedience and compliance from their citizenry is vastly different than ours. Secondly they have top down governments and are more inclined to present draconian style measures. Measures that are insanely stupid when you consider the risks from both sides of the ledger. Third of all, the migration flows and how they are setup up with a homogeneous style government and their geography allows them different set of circumstances than the U.S The amount of people visiting the United states from Europe is nearly 10 times as high as it is to Japan and the discrepancy is much worse with South Korea. And I'm not even going into the T-cell immunities but I believe there is even more of it in Asia than there is here. I do, it's what I do for a living. It's a passion of mine. The bolded and highlighted part is all gibberish and added nothing to this discussion. I understand variables and how data is collected can affect outcomes. To the below point, was I one of the ones saying that it wasn't as bad the flu? Nope, you got me confused for someone else. Was I one of the ones who were attributing the rise due to increased testing? Nope, you got me confused for someone else. Even though testing clearly is a reason for the confirmed positives but prevalency is something that I follow closely with the Percent Positive rate. That was after all in a post on that very same page to the one responded to? Before you start spitting your venom, at least attribute it to the right person. That's not what I said, and again your ability to comprehend what you are reading is blinding you. This was in the context of Shoshin and someone else stating that increased testing and contact tracing after the first initial wave was going to be the key to controlling the spread. I said that it wouldn't work. That it wouldn't work because the baseline of true infections was too high for that to be effective. That there were way too many asymptomatics along with the confirmed positives to make this happen. They argued that it could work, I argued that I don't operate off of could's but what would happen. And what I said was correct. Nutty right wing extremists? Now the truth comes out. You're a partisan that is immune to facts and data. People of color and people in cities run by the left have the overwhelming % of those that have tested positive. With that statement, now I know that you are not a serious person. Sure there is. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that. Where have you been? Clearly you are not in tune with what's happening. Now is it conclusive evidence? No, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that "herd immunity" would help slow the spread of the virus significantly. P.S It's not about the antibodies. P.S.S it's not a 70% Antibody threshold to achieve herd-like-immunity In regards to returning back to normalcy. I'm ok with wearing masks. Never said that I wasn't, in fact I have said over and over that I wear them when I am going to be near other people in public. What I did say is that they are overstated and they are. There is less than 1% doubt in my mind of that.

Baselines matter. That's why every time I'd hear people say we could "increased testing, wear masks and contact tracing" and believe that this would be the solution to "get things under control" when the outbreak was already in place is laughable. It's as if they have zero common sense. Masks work on the margins. Increased testing helps you recognize who is and isn't positive at that moment. Contact tracing helps recognize some others who are positive. These tools while marginally helpful are fractional in their overall efficacy when you have tens of thousands of infected people in a particular area. Yet, the media and their gullible viewers keep parroting these things over and over despite all the data and evidence that points to the contrary.

These countries may end up getting it "under control" because they are willing to absolutely shut it down draconian style. But the idea that masks is an effective tool to "control the spread" is not based off any real data, aside from studies in controlled environments. Which the real world is not operating within a controlled environment.

Imagine that. Home of some of the top epidemiologists in the world are not believers in masks. Lest not forget that Fauci wasn't early on either and the way he described his stance against them in mocking terms of those that did "to make them feel better", was his true stance on the matter. No one says things in that sort of descriptive manner without truly believing what they were saying. It's not as if tranmission of droplets are any different with COVID than the standard flu lol. Droplets are droplets. There are so many variables with mask wearing, all in all, I wear them just out of respect for others if I know that I will be close to other people. But the data has shown us time and time again that mask usage in all the major hit cities has had very little effect in slowing down the virus. We can argue all day long about the efficacy of masks, it still won't change the fact that the data has shown that the cities with the highest mask compliance/mandates have had little effect on the overall numbers. Once a city has a somewhat high prevalency, the virus is going to do what a virus does. Spread and eventually burnout.

I haven't visited hardly any of the other threads.

They are anti data and clearly are not looking at the overall picture. That and of course that they are partisans.

I would bet that at least 90% of them are anti Trump.

When you consider both sides of the ledger, there is only one rational decision when it comes to opening or not.

I can't think of anyone on this board that has been as wrong on what they believed to be the case when it comes to COVID-19 as you have. You essentially parrot mainstream media analysis. You've been proven wrong time and time again. It is what it is. With that said. Florida is really beginning to show signs of promise. I'm thinking they have hit their peak from a prevalency pov. And Arizona looking better by the day.

I wouldn't have expected you to understand. Extreme social distancing measures for me would be shutting down restaurants, not allowing people to attend funerals, shut downs imposed by the government, no in class schools for children etc. Practicing common sense measures would be wear masks indoors in public places, 6 feet rule, space out restaurant seating , no indoor gatherings in close quarters of massive amounts of people, washing hands, sanitizer etc.

Additional testing at this stage of the game is overrated. I told you and whoever else months ago that contact tracing is largely useless at this stage of the game because prevalency was out of control and that the baseline of infected was too high. You guys argued, I made my point and now we see who was right. Rapid testing increase for targeted areas makes sense. Anything else additional on top of what we are already doing you can chalk up as diminishing returns. The idea that we will "get on top of this" in respect to lowering the virus by doing all these ancillary things such as additional testing, masks, etc only help on the margins at this stage of the game. I said that months ago, and here we are. That's not to say that we shouldn't do any of these other things because anything on the margins still helps, especially for the most vulnerable. The virus just needs to play out, it sucks that it got here from China but it is what it is. But the deleterious effects of extreme social distancing has costs far greater than COVID-19 does and those effects will continue to play out well beyond the worst of COVID-19 hitting us. What I talked about months ago, still stands today. Protect the most vulnerable, practice some common sense precautionary measures and reopen the economy fully.

Right inline with what I was thinking. Burnout.

Testing is beyond where it was projected to be at this point. That doesn’t stop these frauds from gaslighting us all

There is a saying: The data doesn’t lie, people do.

Im not interested in the said reasons just the data. I’m all about that data. The data doesn’t lie.

Galveston county in Texas making that turn

Looks like COVID ICU usage is going down right along with hospitalizations. I would imagine there would be a slight lag.

Arizona somewhat mixed but more positive than negative Pretty precipitous drop in hospitalizations. Wouldn’t expect that for Florida, California and Texas as they have multiple population zones. Arizona is largely dominated by Phoenix. Phoenix must be at burnout level.

More good news from Florida. Gotlieb was showing 15% average. This is not 15% average.

Way ahead of you Scott. Gottlieb late to the game, as usual. And his Florida numbers are off.

So what? Much of what she says is stuff that I believe in regards to the human response to viruses. She was considered credible until she was charged for supposed theft of the research in which they dropped the charges. Whether this conspiracy stuff she says is true or not, who knows? I take no position one way or another, let people see it and make up their own mind. Thats the problem with people like you guys, you are so afraid of people seeing things and making up their own minds yet you guys believe in the biggest liars and conspiracy theorists out there, the mainstream press. They lie to you many times every single day and you guys still eat it up. Anyway, more good news from South Florida. If this trend holds up then Florida will have turned the corner.