Magox

It's hard to know the exact numbers because we don't know the real numbers. So to know you have to know. If that makes any sense. With that said, I think you are on the right track and if I had to take a guess I would say that you are in the vicinity of what it would take if this theory is indeed true. Which I believe it to be. That a significant portion of the population already has a level of immunity to COVID 19 from previous coronaviruses and other viruses. Not all levels of immunity are the same, I would venture to guess it's on a spectrum with various variables in place, such as length of time the immunity lasts, age, underlying factors, natural immunity based defenses etc. determining how much immunity it has provided. Some of the immunities may completely ward off the virus, some may allow you to get infected but with no symptoms, others with mild symptoms and so on and so on. I would venture to guess anywhere from 30-60% already have some level of immunity due to these previous viral infections they had contracted. Since the antibody tests are not perfectly conducted and there are studies that show that even people who don't test positive for the antibodies but did contract the virus to a degree that have T cells that showed up that help fight the virus, it's a still a bit murky. Antibodies attack the virus before they hit the cells and if that fails the T cells are supposed to attack the virus once the cells have been infected by the virus so that they don't continue to spread to other cells. It seems to me based off of antibody tests that the 20% COVID infected area is right around where burnout of the virus seems to really take place. I suspect the beginning of the downward slope of an area that has experienced an uncontrollable outbreak begins much sooner, probably around the 15% range. It just seems that wherever you have seen these 20% COVID affected areas that they have experienced a burnout, because there are no sighs that I can see in these areas that we are seeing any real increase in the virus. Italy, Belgium, London, Connecticut, New Jersey, Boston, New York City and Sweden being prime examples. People are now out and about in all these areas and there are no viral outbreaks, what gives? There are other thoughts and potential explanations that I could provide, hardly any that have been discussed and maybe when I have time I'll discuss them. But to me it seems not only logical but likely that these other past viruses are creating levels of immunity to go along with the antibodies that are being created by COVID 19 to help establish herd like immunities. It's a cynical view but it's possible. lol

Even though I do believe masks help, they certainly aren't the end-all-be-all. Los Angeles has had the mask mandate since June 18th and Los Angeles county is home of one of the worst if not worst viral infection outbreaks in the country. This is a folly to believe that masks are THE solution. When you strip away all the panic porn from the media and their hysterical followers who parrot what they say, the virus is about on par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population. It sucks that the Virus got here from a country that covered this up, but we are where we are. Normalization of life has to return, the costs of doing so from both a public health and economic standpoint are much greater than the risks of the Virus itself. We just have to learn to live with it.

A) I didn’t mention Pennsylvania B) New Jersey is seeing no jump up to this point in new cases which indicates the deaths are coming from backlog and older patients (who they have done a terrible job of protecting) that have been hospitalized for months. 3) we haven’t gone from 500-1000 a day. You have to look at 7 day moving average and it’s around 600. Which is what I predicted. I predicted we would bottom out at around 500 over a month ago and that is EXACTLY where it bottomed out. I also said two weeks ago that I thought this was the week we would see it increase which it was. That trend will continue to go higher for the next 4-6 weeks Before it begins to head down. We will see if that plays out. 4) You don’t understand how this country works. The only way that you can enforce a “national plan” is by breaking the constitution in which states would be able to challenge it in court. This is just a bunch of hand wringing from someone who buys into what the media’s hysteria. That’s what you do, you buy into media panic porn and everything they tell you. Maybe you can try to critically think for yourself once in a while. 5). Poor naive shoshin. Doesn’t believe that the whole hysteria from the media isn’t politically driven.

People are nearly fully out in New York City, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden and the U.K. and they were all hard hit and they seem to have hit that “burn out” level and are showing no signs of increased infections. Same goes for Boston, New Jersey and Connecticut. The infections have plummeted and no signs of re-emerging. The places that are most risk of increased infections are the places that haven’t burnt out and ironically the hottest temperatures.

I’m a subscriber to this theory. That other coronavirus’s and flus have helped build up some level of immunity to COVID, not a complete level but partial immunity to a significant portion of the population and when you add a heavy hit area of around 20%+ that there is a herd immunity sort of effect. The rationale makes sense and when you couple that with the fact that every major area that was hit with this sort heavy COVID infection rate hasn’t even whiffed any second wave, it points to this possibility seemingly the more likely scenario. Miami, L.A, Dallas, Phoenix and Houston will soon “burn out”. But they will have to reach at a minimum of 15% before it begins to taper off. I don’t believe we will see as many COVID infections in November or December as people fear. Most of the major cities under this theory that I believe is increasingly likely would have already burnt out by then.

I get this. I do believe that the landscape has shifted dramatically over the past month and that the radicals are in charge or have heavy influence of the media, corporate boardrooms, academia, Hollywood, Big Tech and other entities. The mask is off, and there is no more pretense of objectivity from these institutions. The left has the control and they will continue to maintain control for the foreseeable future. This isn't some short-term trend or blip, this is a development that is going to shape the American way for quite some time and we are in the opening stages of this. Which is why I referenced guerilla warfare, which is a form of battle from smaller insurgencies against larger forces. The saving grace are the courts. But Biden's handlers will ramrod him into packing the courts, and if the left wins the Senate by at least a couple seats, then they're gonna do it. I am absolutely convinced that this is the next step. If people don't believe that they will then they haven't been paying attention. They want power and they will see the courts as the last impediment to getting that power. They will make Puerto Rico and DC a state, they will make sure that they rig the system so that they continue to win elections. When politicians always say "This is the most important elections of our life time", I always roll my eyes. BUT, This literally is the most important election of my life time. There is so much at stake and even though Trump is such a goofy guy who can't properly articulate the risks, he can at least stop some of the madness from a legislative standpoint helping buy some time to defeat these Maoist radicals. The true key to stopping these radicals is to have a national program to begin flooding the school systems and universities with educators who aren't ideologically bent. Because right now the Universities have become a factory that produces these authoritative Marxists. These Maoist/Marxists are littering positions of influence and we are seeing that play out today. It has to be stopped at its roots.

Very likely this is the case. Plus New Jersey is another state that has been terrible at protecting their seniors.

I didn’t see this post until now. Yep! Pretty much what I brought up earlier. There is no doubt that the protests throughout the country played a significant role in the transmission of the virus. If the protests had been right wing protests and there had been thousands of protests with tens of millions of protesters throughout the country, who happened to be the exact same demographic who is infected the most, primarily in the cities they were protesting in right about at the same time when you’d expect the infections to rise, the media would have denounced the right wing protests AS THE REASON for the spread. There would have been literally stories written every day about it in every major news outlet. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html -Four recent polls — including one released this week by Civis Analytics, a data science firm that works with businesses and Democratic campaigns — suggest that about 15 million to 26 million people in the United States have participated in demonstrations over the death of — Police Officers who were policing the protests and riots throughout the country are reporting significant increases in infections and they attribute it to the protests. The media doesn’t want to make the correlation between the two because they aren’t honest and they don’t want to criticize a cause they stand for and they don’t dare get in the way of the mob or they could lose their jobs. The public just goes along with anything that they say without using an iota of common sense or the ability to critically think for themselves and put two and two together.

Of course the protests played a significant part of the virus transmission. Anyone relying on mainstream outlets to tell them that they didn’t is a fool. It’s not a coincidence that the spread of the virus is most prevalent in the cities that had the protests, the same demographic as those that attended the virus right at the time after the virus.. there were over 25,000 BLM protests throughout the country and we are to believe that it didn’t play a role? The media thinks we’re stupid and apparently there are some dumbasses on this board that buy into it. With that said, this whole thing is wildly overblown and the level of deaths that are occurring and will most likely rise to when things are put into proper context doesn’t merit the amount of hysteria that that the media is portraying. In the county that I live in Florida with a population of over 600k, everyone is going about their lives normally. People know that they aren’t at hardly any risk at all of dying from this flu. The only difference between now and 6 months ago is that you have some shops that aren’t open that we’re open before and there are people wearing masks. I said we would bottom out at 500 deaths per day with the 7 day moving average and that is pretty much exactly what would happen. That it would start going up this week and that is what is happening. That contact tracing would never work over here the way they thought it would because the infections were way too high for that to happen and that is exactly what happened. That the IFR would be somewhere around .25% to .5% and it looks like it is much closer to .25%. This was when most people thought it was over 1%. That virus transmission was very low for children to other children and adults comparatively to adults. Deaths are going to rise over the next 4-6 weeks. Then it will head back down and make lower lows in deaths than before. I expect deaths to average 7 day moving average to go anywhere from 700-900 deaths per day 7 day moving average. And then head back lower and get down to 250-400 in September sometime. Places like New York City most likely won’t have any real re emergence of the virus, I don’t believe. I think they reached a “burnout” level of infections. Basically a herd sort of immunity. Other heavily infected areas such as Houston, Los Angeles, Miami and a few other cities will most likely reach something similar To New York. Not quite the level of New York but those cities and others will have communities that have a propensity to spread the virus more so than others that will have burnt out. I do think that this is setting us up to have a better fall than what I was fearing. Better to get this stuff out of the way now than in late fall when the common flu will come back again.

We are well beyond the point of having an honest and objective media. They are all in on swaying the elections and they will only report “news” that helps advance their ambitions. The country is going to ***** and quickly. As far as I’m concerned this is guerilla warfare and it has to be fought every step of the way.

I figured we had bottomed our last week. Trend now going back up. I would expect that to continue for the next 4-6 weeks.

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Today and the next few days are going to be very telling one way or the other. Because of the weekend and holiday there was expected to be a downturn in deaths reported. The question is how many of those get counted in these upcoming reports. If the deaths are about the same or only up like 20% or less from the previous week that would be really good news as the 7 day moving average would still be trending down from last week.

I made this case a few times and I’m not sure why others who are analyzing this stuff haven’t made the possible link. All these people who didn’t go to get medical care because of fear of contracting COVID could very well make up a statistically significant number of the “excess deaths”. The default response from some is that they *have* to be COVID related. I think it’s just as plausible that it’s due to this as well.

I believe this to be true! Which explains places that were hit really hard such as New York, Copenhagen, Italy, France and Belgium who most likely were hit with around 30+% or thereabouts who now are seeing hardly any upticks now.

Most likely well over 30 million. Where did you get that from? It's most likely pneumonia for both regular pneumonia and COVID related pneumonia. On the CCD website they have both categories.

More perspective

Guys like Gottlieb seem to consistently be a step or two behind. And this is for all the China apologists of this board. And there are plenty.

He's been more accurate then some of the sources you've posted. Just sayin'

And this seems important. We should get some clarification on that.

The people will not comply. Friday and Saturday in my city/town was also busy, people out and about everywhere.

Looks like deaths are beginning to bottom out for this wave. Right at around 500 deaths per day 7 day rolling average. my hunch is next week we begin to see it rise to around 550-600 7 day moving average by the end of the week. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it peak in about a month around 750-800 a day and then head back down again.

This seems noteworthy I decided to look it up and it checks out. ——-The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) increased to 8.2% and is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2%. ————— https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0404-covid19-surveillance-report.html

It’s stupid but IDGAF

Small drop from last week We hit the target I had at 500 deaths per day 7 day average. I don’t think it goes too much lower from here. Not this wave.