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Everything posted by Magox
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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Masks? eh I think they are more helpful than not but their effectiveness is overstated. I wear them out of respect for other people that I'm going to be in contact with. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Translation: a lot of people already have defenses for COVID-19 -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
More on T cell immunities ——-Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity[9] in SARS-CoV-2 infection[10,11].——- -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
More evidence that Texas may be peaking -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
True, but Trump is in his own league. lol -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I get it, he's done some good things and I'd much rather have him than Biden. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Are you saying that Trump doesn't often lie? -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I can't speak for others, but I criticize him for being a world-class narcissist among other things. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Make no mistake, the msm is a cancer. They are the worst of all the institutions in this country. With that said, that statement had all to do with Trump's ego. Every single thing he says has to somehow convey that he is tops. That he's doing a wonderful job. That he has the best of you fill in the blank. yada yada yada. But, unfortunately for people like me, he is the only choice that we have to check this radical leftist power hungry movement that is set to purge things that we think are unimaginable. He better get his ***** together, which he hasn't been and turn this ship around or we are going to be living in a shell of what the U.S used to be. Some deranged left wing version of it. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Just because you didn't test positive for antibodies doesn't mean you weren't exposed to it. Studies have been showing that people who aren't testing positive for COVID antibodies have been exposed to it. Just that their T cell response kicked COVID's ass and that it may have created new COVID-19 T cells in the process. Complicated topic but fascinating. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I think part of his reasoning for doing this was because it got good ratings. -
That can't be him. George Floyd was 46 or 47 years old when he died. This video appears to only be about 10 years old or so. The math doesn't add up.
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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
We'll never know for sure. But considering that most people who died were arguably in their last year, I would say a statistically significant number of them of at least 10-30% were people who were on track to pass away and that they just happened to have the virus when they did or that it accelerated it by a month or two their death. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
My understanding of T cells is simply what I read so it's still somewhat rudimentary. Even though I did read quite a few papers and articles on it over the weekend and did pick up on some things that I wasn't aware of. All the studies that I have read were essentially a synopsis and I didn't see it go into real granular detail. In regards to your black or white statement, I am a huge believer in spectrums. That most things, such as homosexuality, racism or in this case molecular biology exist on a spectrum. There are too many variables to definitely consider something white or black, especially when it comes to immunities. Which is why I believe that many of these people who have had these coronavirus common colds had some levels of immunity vs. COVID-19, where those responses led to either defeating the virus so quickly once it affected the cells that the body didn't have enough time or for that matter a necessity to create antibodies. There have been quite a few studies that show that people had been exposed to COVID-19 and whose bodies showed T-cell responses that never did test positive for COVID-19 antibodies. Then you go further down the spectrum and you have those that did test positive for COVID-19 but were asymptomatic, which means that the infection really never did take hold. Then you go further down and you have people who were infected that had mild symptoms. Then you go further down and you have people who had basic symptoms and it goes on and on from there. There are many variables involved that would help indicate why the outcomes were what they were but my strong hunch that a major one was the T-Cell immunity response from the previous coronavirus common colds that they had. Many I imagine provided strong defenses and others not so much. Basically meaning that if you have T-cells that are ready to put up a fight against COVID-19, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be successful, even though having them puts you in I would imagine a much better situation statistically speaking than not having them. If that makes any sense. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Thankfully the population of Southern California dwarfs that of Northern California, but yes they have been relatively spared. My guess is that they will eventually get their whirl in this COVID musical chairs world we are in. That model with the (IFR) is right inline with what my guesstimates were back in late March. I think the (IFR) for new cases beginning August moving forward will be slashed a decent bit lower as new therapeutics and treatments are introduced. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up seeing the (IFR) in the .15-.2% range -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Done? No But hospitalizations appear to possibly begin creating there as well and the positive test rate seems to possibly be plateauing. Good data coming from Texas. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I think it's almost safe to say that Arizona is on the mend. Trends clearly going in the right direction. Deaths there may peak out in less than 2 weeks. Unless you have a lot of death data backdating. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
More signs of Florida cresting and at its top in regards to Prevalency rates and hospitalizations. I think nationally we will peak out in deaths in the next month and then head back down to make new lows sometime in late September/October. -
So basically there is a story on CNN about irrational thinking people on their views of COVID. You would think that out of all people, teachers would be pro science and pro data. If a teacher doesn't want to go to work, fine don't go to work. If Parents don't feel comfortable then they should home school them, no problem. But don't expect the school systems to punish their students by not having schools open all 5 days of the week. Teachers in order to get paid should have to show up to school, unless they can prove that they are in a high risk category. Which could be a set of criterias of either being 60 years old are older. Or that if you are younger than that, you have at least one underlying comorbidity. Aside from that if they want to get paid, they have to show up. That's how I view it.
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He sounded disappointed to hear that. This shouldn't even be up for serious sustained debate. The data and science is clear, the risks for not having in person school 5 days a week outweigh the risks of Coronavirus to the students. The stat is LESS than 2 in 100,000 of kids who contract COVID, die. Whereas the common flu 40 in 100,000 who contract the common flu die. Yes, kids are less likely to contract COVID than adults, but only by around 1/3 less according to estimates from various studies. However, children are much less likely to spread COVID-19 than adults.
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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
16% for the hotspots would correlate with the numbers we are beginning to see in Florida. There are signs that Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are all beginning to crest with their positive percentage rates. Arizona is looking like it has peaked and there are signs that some of the hotspots in Texas as well, along with California. It’s possible we peak within the 3-4 weeks from now in deaths and hospitalizations in the next couple weeks. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
That is an astounding number -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
If this is the case, this needs to be highlighted. It's a legitimate thing to report, it goes back to data integrity. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
I have no doubt that this is going on and I wouldn't be surprised that it is not a statistically insignificant number. Just think about it, it's common sense. If you have over half the deaths from COVID of people that are in nursing homes and were essentially in their last few months and the reason they were going to die was of something else and they just happened to contract COVID during that time period, is that truly a COVID related death? It shouldn't be. I wouldn't be surprised that in years past if someone in a nursing home died and they happened to catch the flu that their death in many cases weren't considered flu related deaths. At this point, there is no way to fix that without appearing to be doctoring the numbers. This would be an abject failure of reporting data, because the data helps craft policy and if you aren't getting good data, you aren't going to get good policy. -
The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
Magox replied to Hedge's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Can you take the actual image of that CDC chart and copy It here?