Magox

Texas positive tests going up but deaths are remaining remarkably flat. How much longer can that hold out? I would expect it to rise by at least 50% which all considered would not be that bad at all.

This is also noteworthy Two main distinctions between this and the other studies. The criticisms of the other studies was that the dose was wrong. This study used a different dosage from previous studies. And the other distinction was that this was used in "early treatment". Which is the other point that many had made that HCQ was better for early treatment not once they were severely ill.

Just for some perspective. New York vs Florida

Huge Employment Report! The recovery is certainly over performing expectations on just about every metric. The only one where it continue to slightly under perform are weekly jobless claims, which goes back to the cross currents that I have mentioned a few times. Now that we have some rollbacks and pauses, I wouldn't expect the gains to increase from this huge blow out 4.8 million number. My guess is that the gains from here moving forward will be much more tempered. With that said, the hole that we have to dig ourselves out of are MUCH MUCH less shallow than where we believed we'd be in the beginning of July. There were economists who didn't believe we'd reach 11% unemployment until the end of the year. I had predicted that we could be at around 10% by the end of the year, I would say based off of what we are seeing, We could possibly be at around 7-8% by then. With that said, I do think it's going to get a lot tougher pretty soon.

I doubt it would be on the dashboard but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had that data presented under some sort of graphic for his communications.

More regarding the COVID hospitalizations that aren’t COVID related. That’s quite amazing

Trend keeps going down Let’s see if it can continue through the week

What we were discussing backdated from weeks ago

Better than expected Manufacturing report.

There are various reporting methods and more so than anything else the discrepancies lie in two things. The time of the day that the reports that are gathered are concluded. So if lets say as an example that the cutoff that the report is shared by the states for the report to be posted is 6pm est. So the deaths that are reported are up to that cut off point. What Shoshin brought up was that there were more reports that came in after the cut off time of when that death total report came in. That is actually very common, on most days more deaths show up after the reports that we post let's say from COVID Tracking, Nate Silver among others. Those reports simply get counted towards the next days tallies. It all balances out. The other discrepancies lie in that some states do these death data dumps. Where they go back retroactively over a period of time and add in their "probable" COVID deaths to the totals. Those aren't counted in these because you'd have to peg each one to each day. I'm guessing that is what the CBS report did, not sure. As a general rule of thumb, I wouldn't rely on ANY mainstream outlet to get your COVID news. Not only are their reports highly misleading and without any context, but they are dishonest and have no intention to properly inform anyone.

@Buffalo Bills Fan It’s certainly possible. There is data that seems to imply that could be the case.

I believe this is the lowest death total for a Tuesday since March. The 7 day moving average now stands at 512. How much lower can it go? Based on the total infections I wouldn’t think too much lower.

Very impressive drop in deaths today.

I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries. It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't. Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules. Not probably until early next year.

Very promising

The economic data that is coming out is very encouraging. But as you and I have discussed a few times before, I do see lots of layoffs continuing to happen as good economic news comes in as well. At some point the economic data will stop over performing expectations. Crosscurrents is the theme that I'm sticking with.

If true this would be huge and would help explain the burnout in hard hit areas in Europe and New York City. Essentially this would mean that herd immunity is realistic for some cities in the US and that many others throughout the country could be immune to the virus that aren’t showing up in the antibody tests.

The question is will it continue with some of the economic pauses and pullbacks? But it goes to show you on just about every economic indicator that the rebound so far has been vastly over performing expectations

Nothing to see here

Anecdotal account that has some actual data from someone presumed to be credible. Confirms what we have been seeing with the data.

Deaths went up slightly from last week. Did we temporarily bottom out? Next few days should give us a better idea.

Ages of COVID infected people in Arizona Young, just like in Florida and Texas. My guess is that this is a countrywide development.

I rarely look at one indicator to conclude a view. It's just a data point a positive one at that to support that there are green shoots. With that said, and we've discussed it before there are cross currents at play. This just happens to be a potential positive indicator.

Pending home sales breaks records

It's not full proof but it reduces the clutter. And the data has been released slowly so far today.