Magox

It's still too early to tell but if you remember how New York's slope began to look in these metrics they have the same shape to it, which is that cresting shape at a hopeful top. I would say if we could continue to see another 3- 5 more days of these same metrics that were referenced to continue making that crest and rounding down, then this would be a good sign. The only problem with the Florida data is that what I referenced was for the state of Florida and there is no way that all of Florida is burning out, only Dade and possibly Broward/Palm Beach would be experiencing a burnout. Places like Hillsborough, Pinellas, Orange and Duval counties which are the other major population zones are not experiencing the level of infections as Southern Florida, but I suspect they aren't too far off. These counties have anywhere from 12k-20k confirmed positives but they have anywhere from 1/2 to a 1/4 of the population as Dade, which probably puts them closer to 10-15%. Probably closer to 10%. At the rate of infections we are seeing they are probably 2-4 weeks behind Southern Florida. Then again, this whole theory of burnout with the T cells + antibodies could be wrong. But, the evidence does seem compelling based off all the places that have hit that 20% range that seem to have burned out with very little signs of reemergence of the virus.

New Housing construction sees 55% year over year growth.

This is another good potential sign and that Maricopa County/Phoenix is potentially hitting burnout as well. Maricopa county has a large population of 4.4 million people. They have 82,000 confirmed positives. Arizona is not conducting nearly the amount of tests as Florida, so I would say that they easily are only capturing 10% of the real positives. With 82,000 confirmed positives that most likely means they have pretty close to 800,000 who have truly contracted COVID-19. Which puts them in that 15-20% burnout range. Is there evidence to suggest that they are beginning to burnout? Yes. Not definitive but the trends are looking good. They too are cresting with COVID hospitalizations. If this theory plays out, Arizona should make a somewhat rapid drop as their population is densely made up in that one county. Florida will be different, even though half the infections are in Southern Florida Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, places like Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando and some other cities still have a ways to go before they burnout. So I would expect Arizona's improvement and descent in cases/hospitalizations/deaths will happen much quicker than Florida's which has many different population zones.

I'd venture to guess its much higher than that.

Truth be told, I don't think Miami Dade county is at the same saturation levels of New York City. I think Miami is probably somewhere in that 15-20% range of COVID infections. Whereas I think New York city is probably around 20-30% range. But your argument stands.

If you see here, in Florida the Emergency room visits and symptoms of COVID related hospitalizations are all beginning to crest. And then you have this: It's still too early to definitively say one way or another. But the percent positive rate has begun to taper off over the past week and the Emergency room COVID symptom related visits have begun to plateau as well. Hopefully this continues, if so, then I think it strongly supports the theory of once it reaches around that 15-20% area of COVID infections that the virus begins to burnout.

We've discussed how certain areas could be reaching "burnout" levels. Estimates for that vary, from everything that I have observed I think it begins at around the 15%-20% level. Where previous Coronavirus T cell immunities and COVID antibodies hit a certain threshold where the virus begins to taper off and eventually flattens out to a very low baseline. There is a chance that may already be happening in Dade county. If you see Dade County has 67k confirmed infections. Depends on what you think the under count of confirmed infections to actual infections truly are. I would have said before all the huge amount of testing that only 10% were being fully captured, but my guess is that now with the increased testing we are probably around 1 in 6. But since this data was captured from inception to yesterday, this probably captured 1 in 7 or 1 in 8. This has 67k confirmed infections...If you were put in a multiple of 7, you multiply 67k by 7 and you get about 470k. Dade county has a population of 2.7 million people. That would be around 17% of the Dade county population would have contracted the virus. Which would put you right in that 15-20% burnout range. That burnout range is when things begin to taper off and eventually Burnout. There are signs of this beginning to happen. I wasn't able to get it all in this post...I have the continued portions on the next post.

You aren't speaking facts, you are speaking gibberish as you always do. That's what weak minded leftists do when they have no argument - they spout words like "Nazi's, racism" and other similar words to attempt to shut down debate without really debating. I've already expressed my concern for the most vulnerable countless times on this website, but we are talking about the people who are dying. And the majority of the people who are dying are people who were about to die. When public policy makers have to craft policies that affect all their populace, they have to take into account all data points, such as the one that I just referenced. If people like you were in charge who don't operate on facts but rather anecdotal emotional scare stories, bad public policy would be crafted. Also, there is no statistical widespread evidence to support "younger folks who are surviving longterm health issues.". Only anecdotes. What I advocate is much more humane for the entire populace than what you advocate. If we had it your way, there would be a lot more poverty, worse overall health outcomes and economic devastation. So even though what you think may be more humane in fact is worse from both a public health and economic standpoint.

The average profile of the person who dies from COVID-19 is 81 years old with 2.7 comorbidites. Obviously they count, but the vast majority of people who have died of COVID-19 already had one foot in the grave. That may sound harsh, but I'm not a politician, I'm just speaking facts.

It’s too early to definitively say but there are signs of the virus cresting in Florida. Of course each city has its own dynamics but my guess is that if it is happening it’s happening in South Florida (Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties) which make up about 50% of the State’s recent confirmed infections.

You can throw data and objectivity out the widow when it comes to the mainstream media and their viewers. They hounded right leaning states before the George Floyd death for being “reckless” without acknowledging the huge failings from left leaning states and their disastrous nursing home policies and once the protests began they barely uttered the obvious viral spread implications of those protests. And once the protests ended, they went right back to shaming right leaning states for opening up their economies. And now they want to pretend that 10-25 million young people participated in protests in early to mid June and that all the viral spread shaming they are conducting had nothing to do with the protests??? They think we are either stupid or just will mindlessly accept what they are pushing. And you know what? They are right, most of their viewers simply accept what they are selling. Because they don’t have the desire or ability to critically think for themselves. The media is embarking upon an epic gaslighting campaign on the country.

This is an interesting and surprising stat: Hope that holds up.

This pertains to the T cell defenses that are formed from previous coronaviruses that we were discussing earlier. And this touches on that and discusses the burnout level. They theorize between 10-20% which is pretty close to my estimations. I’m more in the 15-20% area of COVID-19 infections before burnout takes place. I wish the media and politicians could be grown ups about this and properly explain what we have been saying for months, but unfortunately we are where we are, which is panic porn.

Im pretty much in agreement with this. Mitigation efforts should have only one goal in mind and that is to allow the hospital/medical systems enough slack to treat patients. Every single place that was hit hard wore masks and shut down businesses for at least a month before the virus burnout. Meaning once it was out there was no getting the genie in the bottle. Once prevalency is out of control which it has been for over 4 months there is no plausible way to control it, unless you quarantined states and cities from each other and that is to dystopian to even imagine for this country. Practical mitigation efforts, protecting the most vulnerable, better medical practices/treatments and ultimately burnout is the only realistic way for this country until a vaccine comes about.

Masks help, I wear them out of courtesy more so than anything. With that said they are overrated, they help but they aren’t anything close to being THE solution to limit the spread. I’ve brought up the example a few times, Los Angeles instituted the mandatory mask Ordinance nearly a month ago. They didn’t open up their economy as quickly as other places, they have a lot more leftists which presumably are more compliant mask wearers and remember the media and their followers have all told us that the protests didn’t spread the virus (lol) and yet they have one of the worst viral outbreaks if not worst in the country. So clearly we know masks aren’t THE solution to limit the spread. The toothpaste is out the tube for these cities with outbreaks, not much can be done at this point for them, it’s just going to have to burnout.

I edited my post slightly to amend a few of the things I said.

I suppose the antibodies at some point begin to weaken as if it were on a slipping spectrum. I don’t think they just disappear from one day to the other but the effectiveness of the antibodies most likely do hit an inflection point of resistance. Previous coronaviruses antibodies lasted between a year or two before they meaningfully weakened. With that said, the immune system develops more defenses. Everyone talks about the antibodies but the immune system when hit with a virus like the corona virus also replicates other defenses similar to antibodies. T cells being one of them. The antibodies protect against viruses before they attack the cells. But even if they get past that and attack the cells, T cells that were replicated from a previous COVID-19 infection are then replicated to fight the virus from within the cell. These T cells attack the virus once the virus penetrates the cells and help destroy the virus before they infect other cells. This is why there seems to be growing evidence that even past coronaviruses and virus infections produced these T cells that are helping serve as a defense causing asymptomatic to mild symptoms. This is also most likely on a spectrum. Defenses ranging from effectively attacking the virus so much so that they don’t even register as a COVID-19 infection, to an asymptomatic infection to a mild infection to more serious ones. Think of it as a couple lines of defense. One defense that is outside of your home being the antibodies and the other being inside the home being the T cells. I wouldn’t fret too much about the antibodies weakening, even if it did after a short time period the T cells would be there and most likely the T cells replicated from COVID-19 would even serve as a better defense than the T cells replicated from previous coronaviruses.

Amazing. This is the other theory i just briefly referenced yesterday That I wanted to expand on at a later time. I actually Brought this up close to 2 months ago. That COVID-19 antibody herd-immunity is typically viewed by laymans in terms of countries. That X country has or hasn’t reached herd immunity. But clearly, you can’t really view it in terms of countries you have to Geographically break it down further. States to even further pinpointed to cities. But really it goes much further than that. To Boroughs and even pinpointed more to neighborhoods. Most likely there are sections of a city that may tend to exhibit riskier behavior to contract and spread the virus more so than others based off of logistical structuring and cultural behaviors. If these places have already hit herd like immunities then the odds of that place becoming a vector for transmission to other parts of the city by extension neighboring cities lessens. I think this with the Possible T cell immunities that people have developed due to previous coronaviruses and viruses bodes well for the upcoming winter. With that said, I do think we will see continuous rolling waves over the next 3-6 months. The places that haven’t been hit all that hard will most likely get hit. Even rural places. Thankfully treatments are getting better to deal with the virus for those that are most vulnerable. And of course that the virus is not that harmful to the vast majority of the population.

Los Angeles initiated a mandatory ban on masks nearly a month ago. They have not opened up their economy as much as other cities. They are home to one of the most paternalistic governors and mayors in the country. The populace of Los Angeles are largely leftists who despise Trump, meaning whatever Trump says they don’t care. And yet, Los Angeles has one of the worst if not worst viral outbreaks in the country. Facts matter

This does seem to make sense. The GOTV campus programs are powerful motivating factors for students to register and vote. No matter what happens this fall the GOTV effectiveness won’t be at 100%. Could end up playing a decisive factor in the elections.

You’ve become insufferable. Of course. And shoshin the droid wasn’t able to pick up on it.

Trumps base MAGA

The people who are contracting the virus more so than anyone are people of color in urban high populated cities and the youth. Meaning they don’t give a flying flip what Trump has to say and are in no way shape or form part of Trump’s base. New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and Massachusetts which accounts for nearly 50% of the deaths are such bastions of MAGA territory. Do you idiots even think think before you type or do you just Uncontrollably vomit partisan potshots on this message board To try to score points?

The decision is not what some of you think it is. From my understanding things will essentially remain the same with Native Americans having more territorial benefits than before. From a practical standpoint I don’t believe anyone really misses a beat.

No, that would be a caveman anti data/science view. Kids are much less likely to die of covid 19 than the common flu. That’s not even up for debate. Children in more studies than not are shown to be very low emitters of the virus comparatively to adults. The risks of not having children go to school is borderline barbaric. Many low income children depend on the nourishment programs from schools. Many low income children don’t have access to internet and will fall educationally much further behind. It’s tough enough for many of them and to now fall more behind is cruel and has long impacting detrimental effects. Many families, especially low income families will be affected in that they depend on having to work and this impedes their work opportunities. Many families and parents are not equipped to properly teach their children. Many parents are abusive alcoholics and having children home with all day increases child abuse. Why are you guys such barbaric anti science/antidata believers who don’t care about children?