Magox

Florida really trending down nicely. Deaths should be near peak. And Arizona is trending down in all stats including deaths. They have burnt out.

We are either at a top in deaths or at near the top. This is two days in a row where deaths are lower than the previous week and the week over week average have begun to decline. Had a couple days last week where the death total was lower than the previous week. Positivity rate is trending lower nicely. Made the prediction about 5 weeks ago that we would top out in 4-6 weeks. The deaths are a little higher that I thought we'd be which was around 900 deaths (7 day moving average), it seems as if it MAY have topped out around 1070. If it plays out the way I think it will I believe we will begin to trend lower and make new lows in October some time.

More on Sweden and how they got it right. A better gauge to judge the public health response will be to view the excess deaths as that would encompass all the deaths whether it was COVID or COVID indirectly related deaths. I have a very strong hunch that the excess death count will continue to trend in Sweden's favor relative to the rest of Europe, North and South America. They will have largely burnt out, they won't have nearly as many residual deleterious public health effects such as suicides, drug overdoses, crime, lack of care etc that were caused by the draconian measures.

Milano and TreDay are up next.

These are the sort of things that should weigh in when determining public health policy.

Assuming people are being honest with their answers, so far here on PPP there are a net +10 votes for Trump this time around as opposed to the last election. And for Biden a net + 2 votes over Hillary. I think this could be a small microcosm of turnout in regards to Trump. I know of plenty of people that don't really like him but believe the left has gone absolutely bat ***** crazy and are willing to vote for Trump this time around. I know it's anecdotal but I'm seeing it a lot. Just PPP alone there is a net + 10. Quite a few PPP board members will be voting Trump for the first time.

And what makes this even worse is that those nursing home deaths, those poor people who died had to essentially either die alone and not in the presence of their loved ones because of these backwards ass rules and measures that were taken in the name of public health. Logic was totally removed from the equation, I started a whole thread about this back in March discussing these issues. It was totally foreseeable and to this day, people still are not able to comprehend this basic thought process. Never Forget

Correct! It won't balance out and make no mistake there are excess related deaths due directly to COVID of people who weren't going to die if COVID hadn't been around. But the numbers are vastly overstated. There is another stat that is taken into account which is the Years of Life Lost. This in my view is the better stat. Which is a stat that doesn't count each life as a 1 to 1 basis but takes into account their age. Example: If you have the average life of expectancy of 80 in a country and someone dies at age 79, then that would have a net tally of 1 years of life lost. But if you have someone who dies at age 40, then that tally is listed as 40 years of life lost. I can't seem to find it but I remember reading that the excess deaths that are NON COVID related (but they are indirectly related) had a greater PYLL (potential years of life lost) than those who died due to COVID. Meaning, more years are being taken away from people's lives due to policy decisions that are meant to protect the public from COVID, than COVID itself. That's some backwards ass ***** that is happening. And it makes perfect sense once you understand the profiles of the people who are typically dying.

Without doubt there are a significant amount of deaths that have been paid forward. The question is how much of it will show up in the data? Unfortunately, there is no clear way to get that count. You can't just look at the excess death tables to get a clear picture because the ongoing excess deaths that are not related to COVID are also factored in to the overall excess death count. It's not as if the non covid related excess deaths just stops when the virus burns out. Deaths not directly related to COVID but as of a result of secondary and tertiary COVID related deaths such as suicides, lack of medical care, drug addictions, stress induced illnesses, poverty etc will go on for quite some time. CDC attempts to classify COVID and non COVID related excess deaths but no one in their right mind trusts that data. We know for a fact that there are many people that were considered COVID related deaths that truly didn't die because of COVID, they just happened to have COVID when they died. It's a distinction that should be noted but almost impossible to quantify. And since we have a press that is not interested in reporting substantive news and it's viewers/subscribers who lack the ability or desire apply common sense and do additional research, we are left with vapid articles such as the NY Times article we got up above. Looks all fancy, they extrapolate data that is "real", but it misses tons of context and uses imaging on their charts to portray things in a manner to further their narratives. All one has to do is apply common sense and know that since we know that around 50% of people were very likely going to die no matter if COVID had been here or not within the next 6 months or so. That's a given. That is borne out in the data of who we know has died of COVID and what we know of people's life expectancy once they enter into Nursing homes. This is not in dispute. So using logic and basic common sense, we know that many of these deaths were paid forward, accelerated. So in real terms you would see the excess death count go down in the coming months. But since we have misclassifications and ongoing Non COVID excess deaths, it's nearly impossible to get an accurate handle of this.

No doubt that his stuff does grate some people the wrong way. Unfortunately, meager sounding opinions don't get the attention.

It's as if you didn't digest anything that I wrote. Not surprising. It is. It's either highly biased lacking in context to push a narrative or they lack any ability to apply common sense. The whole basis of the article is that there are more COVID related deaths than what has been tallied. Again, you missed the mark. Never mind the fact that we know that close to 50% of the COVID deaths were on track to die less than half a year. Where is your common sense? No, it's relevant to this discussion, not just relevant but highly relevant. The fact that you don't recognize that says a lot on how you are unable to process information. It does absolutely 0 to support what you said. Zero, zilch, nada, nothing. This is why guys like Berenson are people to follow...They cut through the B.S mainstream out-of-context mainstream "analysis" and are able to apply sound reason and logic backed up by data. No one is infallible and especially when it comes to COVID, everyone will get some things wrong but his analysis on COVID has been a public service for people who truly want to get a good feel of how things are.

A big problem with how COVID "news" and "analysis" is disseminated aside from their obvious inherent political biases is that common sense and critical thinking has been completely taken out of the equation.

You are right not to take it seriously because it's all bull#### lacking in context with out sized disproportionate looking charts that don't accurately reflect anything resembling reality.

What a bull#### chart and article from the NY Times. More mainstream analysis that lacks complete context and understanding of how things are working. Look at how they attempt to portray Texas in that chart, as if it's going through some huge excess death surge. Texas has the lowest per capita death rate due to Coronavirus out of any of the large state along with California. Even according to CDC which is severely under counted, but even if you were to accept their analysis, anywhere between 16%-40% of all the excess deaths are not COVID-19 related deaths. And we know how shoddy the reporting systems have been and classifying deaths that aren't truly COVID as COVID deaths. It's amazing how people from the NY times and other mainstream outlets are not able to add 2+2 and realize that the answer is 4. When we know that the average person who dies of COVID is 78years old (some countries show 80) with 2.7 comorbidities and that 42% of the COVID deaths came from nursing homes. And knowing that the average person in a nursing home has a life expectancy of 5 months. When you consider these undeniable facts, that the vast majority of deaths when you look at the NON COVID excess deaths and the Nursing home/average age of 78 year old with 2.7 comorbidites, that a low percentage of people that have died have died strictly due to COVID. I don't expect their readers to apply critical thinking and see that common sense doesn't jive with their narrative, it's the news media organizations that are either purposely misleading people or that they are so desperate to push a narrative that they are oblivious to context and common sense. And no, Louisiana was not hit hard because of that. It was primarily New Orleans as most of the rest of Louisiana was relatively spared. They just happened to be a city that was seeded early on and it spread like wildfire until they burnt out. What is happening now with Louisiana is that the rest of the cities like Shreveport, Lafayette, Baton Rouge among other cities are now having their turn at this musical COVID chairs. Recommendation, if you are going to read anything about COVID from a mainstream outlet, apply some additional thought and research. Most of the time you will find that it's all bull####.

There is a cost that in-the-box conventional mainstream thinkers aren't able to comprehend. The cost of freedom, the liberties that it affords and the residual effects that come with it. As what has been said from almost the beginning, open up the economy, open up pretty much everything and protect the most vulnerable. When you factor in everything, this is the best approach.

Trump may have done that but the left's brand is as toxic if not more so than Trump's. So here we are.

You didn't vote for Trump last time? Wow.... That is surprising. If you don't mind me asking, why not?

Are you writing in anyone this time or Trump? If you don't mind me asking

I'm curious to know how people on PPP are looking to vote this time compared to last time. I voted for the goofball Gary Johnson last time around out of protest. This time I plan on voting against the left by pulling the lever for Trump.

He doesn't know what he is talking about. He parrots mainstream analysis.

Florida's recovery seems to be accelerating.

The ghouls won’t be happy Lowest numbers in a month

The ghouls won’t be happy

There you go again. No ability to critically think for yourself. Despite all the evidence that we know that the average age of the person who dies is 81 years old with 2.7 comorbidities and a significant percentage of them in nursing homes (which the average time of stay is 5 months) and reports that Kerpen brought up from CDC. You still defy logic. It's a problem of yours. Now to address what you posted. I already had posted about this, clearly it was something that went over your head. What did it say on YOUR chart? (All causes) Right? What have we been talking about the lock downs for months? Have we been talking about other deleterious effects and causes of deaths due to the lock downs? Now for my chart, Right in that very same section - Look at all the deaths EXCLUDING COVID-19. Look at the total number of deaths in each of those states, many of them have way more than double the amount of deaths that AREN'T related to COVID. The Red is the expected amount of deaths, the grey are all the excess deaths that are NONCOVID related. And that is just information that CDC has collected, most of us with any ability to critically think for ourselves knows that number is much higher than what they have gathered.

Deaths haven’t been rising over past couple days Week over week. Probably either at the top or really close. This also shows that we would make new lows in beginning of November, I have it pegged end of September/beginning October.