thebandit27

My apologies if the "intellectual honesty" comment appeared to be directed at you; that was not my intention...it was more of a statement about the general theme surrounding Josh Allen dialogue on this board. It's not as though you don't make fair points. I myself have reservations about Allen, even though I may be his most outspoken supporter on the board. Where we definitely agree is regarding Allen's overconfidence in himself. My #1 issue with him can be boiled down to "he tries to do way too much". He tries to make throws that aren't there because he has an arm unlike any other--that he manages to do so from time to time doesn't help. He tries to extend plays too far when he should take the throw-away. He tries to carry his team on his arm when it's not possible to do so. Appreciate the well-wishes; while Mrs. Bandit and I aren't huge fans of the April snow, my kids are ecstatic about it

I think Jackson is going to go MUCH higher than he should

He wouldn't be my first choice, but if other guys fall through I'd consider him an option

And he's a good athlete And he's got great escapability And he has shown the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes and with PA And he's played in a pro style offense And he's a smart, high character kid that loves the game But again, I realize that it's very difficult for folks to be intellectually honest with regard to Allen; it's far easier to use hyperbole. I haven't figured out why that's the case though; doubt I ever will

Same

It was from my personal charting when I graded the top-6; admittedly I'm much stricter than Solak as far as what I consider a tight-window throw.

I meant from college to the NFL. Stafford was 57.1% in college; 62% career in the NFL McCown was 51.2% in college; 60.4% career in the NFL (career high of 67% last season) Palmer was 59.1% in college; 62.1% career in the NFL Ryan was 59.9% in college; 64.9% career in the NFL Again, that's not to say that Allen will make a similar jump; these guys just happen to be examples of guys that made marked improvements in completion % from college to the NFL.

The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL. Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common. As for 2nd round and Allen, well, you may as well take him off your board. He's very unlikely to be there in round 2, and even if he were, why take the guy if you don't think he can improve? I've said it repeatedly: if you don't see franchise potential in a guy, don't take him until day 3. His flaws aren't going to become more correctable if you take him in round 2. I think you're mostly on track here. My QB rankings definitely don't match up with the order that they're going to be picked

Okay then. Why don't you go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that have Mayfield as their QB1? I'll wait. While you're digging those up, go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that say that Allen shouldn't be drafted at all, because if he "sucks" like most people think he does (as you originally stated), that's what they'd say. And yes, there are a great number of analysts that have Allen as one of their top QBs in the draft. Among them are guys like Mayock (2nd ranked QB), Kiper (1), McShay (2), Pete Prisco (1), Matt Miller (2), and many others. You also might want to check yourself before you accuse me of subscribing to group-think; I've published my game tape breakdown on this board for the top 6 QBs in the draft and made my rankings well-known. I don't copy anyone's work. And no, mentally slow does not mean on-field processing speed; it means dumb. Look it up. It's not my fault that you used poor wording. If you had even a scintilla of the common sense that you believe yourself to possess, you'd (a) stop overstating your point to the point of inanity, and (b) realize whose post reeks of pomposity.

Run while you still can...

First, you need to look at the difference between opinion and fact. Allen, as I said, made more tight-window throws than any other QB in the class. He cannot do that if he's inaccurate. What you're talking about is completion percentage, which is affected by far more than accuracy (but that's a whole different discussion that's probably too nuanced for someone that won't decipher opinion from fact). As for mentally slow, well, he did outscore the QB field in the Wonderlic test, so that must make Mayfield and Rosen mental midgets, right? Or are you referring to on-field processing speed? That's got far more to do with experience in a system and comfort level with the people around him, but again, we're getting way too far into subject for what you're ready to discuss. Do yourself a favor and stop now. You've said some really silly things (he's a laughingstock among the analyst community, Mayfield is everyone's QB1) that can easily be disproved with a link or two (that I'm happy to provide if you want to continue), and the further we go down this rabbit hole, the worse this has the potential to get. Barring a trade, he and Darnold will be the first 2 QBs off the board IMO.

Again, you're wrong. This is also wrong.

No offense, but everything you've said here is flat-out incorrect. He's extremely likely to be a top-10 pick. He's at or near the top of most analysts' draft boards, and that includes guys that have actually worked in NFL front offices (and been offered GM jobs) like Daniel Jeremiah. He's not slow in any respect whatsoever. He makes better tight-window throws than anyone else in the class; "inaccurate" has always been a mischaracterization. He needs to learn to adjust is touch on short boundary throws and to further refine his footwork. As for the "nobody with his stats" stuff, that's been debunked on this board many, many times.

Very, very few people think Allen sucks. There is a faction of folks that don't think he's got the skill set to be an NFL QB. Most folks see the raw ability, but vary in opinion regarding how much honing of his skill set it'll take to make him successful, and what type of offense he can operate efficiently.

I have 23 right now I hear differently, but I guess we'll see in 3 weeks.

He's not going anywhere. Jordan Howard, however...

I still think you can get a guy like Travis Benjamin by dealing a late-round pick. He's got a high cap number on a team that has a glut of young WRs, he's been productive in the past, and he's got the speed factor that this team is missing.

It was my statement, and it's close to how I feel. I would probably state it this way: If a guy has the potential to be a franchise QB, then he's a 1st round pick If a guy has the potential to be a middling starter--a guy that you can win with for a year or two as long as the rest of the team is very strong around him--then I'd consider him a day 2 pick If a guy has the potential to be a long-term backup, then he's a day 3 pick

Could also apply to Dorsey, with whom they dealt multiple times last year in KC and again this year in Cleveland

Gotcha. That's more or less how I see it as well (in order: Rosen-Mayfield-Darnold-Allen), but I've come to terms with the idea that they may need to go to 4 to get any of those guys. Right, which they definitely aren't going to do. They'll do as most teams do and wait to see if they get blown away with an offer that they can't refuse. It's possible that what you're saying is correct about Cleveland having a higher price, but all that says to me is that they don't really want to move from 4, so you're taking your chances with Denver passing on a QB. Then again, I think Cleveland's "can't refuse" price will ultimately be lower than NYG at 2 regardless of who is or isn't around.

If Buffalo wants to trade up, they need Darnold to go No. 1. If Allen goes 1, then Darnold goes 2, and Buffalo is looking at having to pry Cleveland out of the 4-hole for the last of the Big 4, or having to hope that Denver passes. If you fear the prospect of them trading up for Allen, then you probably don't want to get too comfortable. It's certainly a possibility.

My opinion was barring any trades; sorry, should've made that clear. I do think, however, that Buffalo is a real wild card in the QB market.

I am unlikely to be moved off of my position that Darnold and Allen will be the first 2 QBs off the board.

Waffles > pancakes for sure, but if you haven't done so yet, try adding a hefty spoonful of yogurt to your pancake recipe--it's basically a shortcut to getting the nice fermented starter dough that the classic pancake places use. They come out perfectly fluffy.

That's a fair bet...however, there's absolutely no denying that every team has a MUCH better chance at finding a franchise QB in the early portion of round 1 than at any other point. We've gone through the exercise before on this board, and you can quibble over who belongs on the "franchise" list, but just take a look at the data. If we assume that a "franchise" QB is a guy that's good enough to help a team win the Super Bowl (this does not necessarily mean that he's the centerpiece of the team or even the offense), then you come up with a list that looks a lot like: Brady, Tannehill, Big Ben, Flacco, Dalton, Bortles, Luck, Carr, Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Rodgers, Cousins, Stafford, Newton, Ryan, Brees, Manning, Wentz, Smith, Prescott. Obviously, I left off some guys that can be argued in like Mariota, Watson, Keenum, Bradford, Garoppolo, and Winston and kept in some borderline guys like Tannehill, Dalton, Bortles and Dak, but give or take, you're looking at between 18 and 22 "franchise" guys across the league. If we go with my list (or insert your own; the data set won't be impacted much), here's the breakdown: 1st round - 14 2nd round - 3 3rd round - 1 4th round - 2 6th round - 1 If you further break down the 1st round guys, you find where the real money gets made: Top 4 - 10 Pick 5-end of round 1 - 4 Basically, half of the franchise QBs in the NFL are picked in the top 4 draft selections overall. If you're going to gamble, it's a much better bet to try to get a guy in the top 5 than it is to gamble that one of the rarities drops to you later.