thebandit27

I tried to pick the toughest pass defense they faced (in terms of YPA allowed) for each guy. Seemed like as level a playing field as any

A few folks asked me to post my evaluations of this year’s QB class, so I’ve put this thread together. What follows are not comprehensive breakdowns of every player, but rather individual games that I feel highlight what each player can do well and needs to improve upon entering the NFL. Note that while I only present one game’s worth of notes on each player, I watched every throw of every video I could get my hands on, and did so multiple times for each guy. My goal here is to show examples of how I formed my opinion on these players. Josh Rosen Game selected: @ USC Reason: Full complement of throws against team with NFL-level defensive talent Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:42 small but important play, as he shows the willingness to take the easy money on 3rd down 2:06 more easy money; these plays get you into 2nd and 3rd downs with manageable to-go yards 2:14 what more do you want from a downfield throw? 2:45 shows great drive off the back foot at the top of his drop 3:12 wish we could’ve seen more of this play, because that’s a Brady-like move to get in position and get the ball snapped to take advantage of defense being disorganized 4:10 what a job to stay on the balls of his feet under pressure, keep composure, and hit the open man for a huge 3rd-down conversion 5:40 this play is everything…fast process through the blast action, nice zip on the ball, perfect placement for RAC 5:53 I’d like to see him be more consistent with his release point—multiple batted balls on plays where extra pressure comes 6:56 nobody better question the kid’s toughness; he hangs in and makes a great throw on this play 8:46 it’s worth pointing out that on the quick lateral throws, he manages to get the ball out lightning-quick without rushing his delivery; that’s a unique trait that other QBs don’t seem to have 9:42 he doesn’t do this often, but Rosen will trust himself too much at times and throw this kind of ball into traffic 12:15 shame on that WR; that’s a beauty of a back-shoulder throw that should’ve been had Summary: Rosen has everything you want in a franchise QB: plenty of arm, pinpoint accuracy, intelligence, and toughness. He does get too many of his intermediate throws batted down for my liking, and I worry that he gets spooked by phantom pressure when teams are able to get to him early. Overall, he’s my QB1 and should easily be a top-5 pick that can start immediately. Baker Mayfield Game selected: Georgia (Rose Bowl – neutral site) Reason: Facing 2nd-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA) Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:00 right away you see the ability to throw accurately on the run 0:35 this here is RPO to perfection; freeze the 2nd level, recognize the breakdown, and deliver a perfect ball 1:28 great accuracy to all levels of the field 1:51 great execution on the zone read; enough athletic ability to hurt teams when he runs 2:04 it’s not a great throw, but watch the lower-body mechanics in the pocket. Keeps a nice wide base, stays high on the balls of his feet, constant balance established; this is why he’s so accurate. 2:46 this is one of my issues with Baker: he holds the ball too long. There’s a wide open target on the sideline, and he needs that ball to come out. NFL defenses don’t give you all day. 4:43 he has to know when to bail on the play and throw the ball away; can’t take negative plays like that. I could also pick on him for pulling his eyes down and not seeing the open receiver on the sideline here. 5:36 he did a really nice job at the start of this play to look off the swing route and then climb the pocket...only to bail out the back of a decent pocket and take a sack. 6:50 what a throw…fearless, and it shows that he knows when to push the ball down the field. 7:07 for all the guff I give him about holding the ball, he can really make things happen when he scrambles. Buys time, rolls left, and makes a brilliant throw across his body beating double coverage for a game-tying TD. Summary: Mayfield gets knocked for his size, but for a guy that small, he almost never has the ball batted down. His throwing mechanics are excellent, and he’s very accurate. My biggest issue is that he needs to get comfortable working the pocket better. He won’t be able to hold the ball for 3+ seconds like he did routinely in college, and he can’t afford to bail clean pockets in the NFL, where the defenders are too athletic to allow him to roam free untouched. The arm talent and athleticism, combined with the attitude and desire to win, make him an easy top-10 pick for me. Sam Darnold Game selected: vs. Ohio State Reason: Facing 11th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA) Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:00 ball comes out quickly, with a ton of zip, and right on the money…that’s an NFL throw right there 0:21 can buy time with his athleticism, and keeps his eyes downfield. His throws on the run are generally great. 0:31 can we all stop and acknowledge this play? The ball is out in less than 2 seconds, and is placed absolutely perfectly about 25 yards downfield. 1:15 beautiful touch to drop the ball into the space in the zone 1:25 the worst thing with Darnold: turnovers. This is just a bad read and a bad decision. 2:06 again the pocket mechanics: feet active, finding safety, and delivering quickly and accurately 2:32 even when he has to wait for things to develop, he still executes quickly and efficiently 2:38 fumbles…way too many of them 2:54 the next two throws are Sam Darnold in a nutshell: a spectacular ball that’s out fast to a safe spot where his WR can make a big play, followed by an I’m-way-better-than-you ball into triple coverage that should’ve been picked. 4:14 underrated throw here: rolls away from the pressure and completes across his body to pick up a big first down 5:17 he’s absolutely money on these boundary touch throws 5:31 he’s absolutely trash on protecting the football in the pocket 6:31 climbs to safety and hits another downfield throw Summary: There’s so much to like with Darnold: athleticism, accuracy, arm strength, and everything happens fast with him. If it weren’t for his turnovers and ball security, he’d probably be my QB1…if it weren’t for turnovers and ball security. He’s got to get that under control. As it is, he’s good enough to be a top-5 pick. Josh Allen Game selected: Central Michigan (Potato Bowl – neutral site) Reason: Facing 8th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA) Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:00 here’s where I see Big Ben comparisons: Ostman has him wrapped up, but Allen is big and strong enough to make a throw anyway (side note: he should’ve just taken the sack) 0:14 and 0:23 are back-to-back plays that look ordinary, but are important for two reasons: (1) they show that Allen’s boundary accuracy isn’t nearly as erratic as some say, and (2) they show that when Allen’s footwork is right (nice wide base, good drive at top of dropback, even stride), his accuracy and placement are fine 0:34 great play fake, and the best throw I’ve seen on film from any of these QBs. Just sit silently and watch the replay…gorgeous. 1:08 good enough mobility to extend the play, and has the arm to fire a bullet on the run 1:42 is this an erratic throw, or a sloppy route by the WR? Can’t tell, but Conway looks just a hair slow coming out of his break there 1:55 one thing nobody will knock is this kid’s deep ball; best in the class 2:40 these next 4 plays show you my biggest issue with Josh Allen: stop trying to make things happen when they’re obviously not there. Throw the ball away and live for the next play…half the reason this kid gets beat up and throws dangerous passes is that he’s constantly trying to do too much. 3:42 takes the contact and still throws a rope to the furthest part of the field 4:00 this here’s a misfire that’s footwork related; that’s gotta get cleaned up 4:06 bad Josh shows up again; stop trying to do too much, Joshua 4:32 watch this throw, and then tell me the kid isn’t accurate; that’s an NFL throw all day 4:59 another issue that he needs to clean up: he occasions to lack a bit of touch on boundary throws 6:01 he has no business being able to make this throw; that’s obscenely good Summary: I keep watching Allen over and over trying to find the “major accuracy issues” that others say he’s got. I’m sorry, but I don’t see them. I see a guy that needs to refine his touch throws to the boundary and clean up some occasional footwork issues, but mostly I see a guy that tries to make something out of nothing too often. Sometimes that’ll present itself via him trusting his arm too much and throwing into danger, but a lot of gunslinger-type QBs do that. I have him as my QB4, and I’ve given him a top-10 grade; when he’s right, he’s the best QB in the class. Lamar Jackson Game selected: @ Florida State Reason: Facing 6th-ranked pass defense in FBS (in terms of YPA) Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:00 boy can that ball come out quick 0:24 makes very good zone-reads on back-to-back plays 1:11 my least favorite thing about Jackson is his relative lack of pocket mechanics; his footwork breaks down under pressure (and perceived pressure) and he loses accuracy 1:20 to folks that believe he won’t be a dangerous dual threat in the NFL: that’s Derwin James he just blew by on that play 1:41 nice patience, and a full-field read to find the TE over the middle 3:04 again, the breakdown in pocket mechanics forces an inaccurate throw 4:22 the hidden benefit of having a guy like Jackson is that defenses have to commit players to cover the run threat, which leaves easy swing passes like this one open 4:33 nice job keeping eyes downfield 4:53 gotta get rid of the football 5:23 there’s the bad footwork again, forcing a miss to the boundary, but… 5:30 this throw is a dime; nice touch 6:55 this play makes me think he can be deadly on RPOs in the pros; how do you maintain coverage responsibilities AND commit enough guys to stop Jackson on the ground? 7:59 this is the kind of chain-moving money throw that he’ll have to make on Sundays…apparently he can make it 8:34 this ball is just a smidgeon underthrown, but still a nice touch on a deep throw that could’ve been a game-winner. 8:56 these next 3 plays are a portfolio unto themselves as to why this kid can be special. It’s crunch time, and he (1) shows a willingness to take what the defense gives him, (2) shows the ability to extend the play and keep his eyes downfield to hit a critical first down, and (3) throws a beautiful deep ball that, again, should’ve been a game-winner. Summary: he’s not a perfect prospect, but Jackson has the goods. He’s ultra-athletic, and can keep defenses honest, which will really help a team’s running game. I also like that he’s got the take-what-they-give-you mentality, and if he’s willing to use it he can have early success in the NFL. I think he should’ve gone back to school to clean up his pocket mechanics and become a more nuanced passer, but right now he’s got a first-round grade from me. Mason Rudolph Game selected: vs. Virginia Tech Reason: Best pass defense that Oklahoma State faced in FBS (in terms of YPA) Notes (timestamp correlates to beginning of play): 0:00 Rudolph’s accuracy is generally very good; placement is solid. Spoiler alert: he struggles with boundary throws…placement and velocity wane dramatically. 0:29 he knows when to take off with the ball and when to get down 0:50 stands tall in the pocket and delivers a strike into coverage; again, notice the accuracy on interior passes 1:12 here’s a great example of the good and the bad. The good? Keeps on the balls of his feet, climbs to safety, and finds the open man. The bad? The loss of velocity and placement on the boundary throw. You’ll see this continue on 3 of the next 5 throws as well. 2:02 some of the best deep-ball accuracy in the class. 2:37 willingness to hold the ball when necessary; nice job of coming across to find the open man for a key 3rd down conversion 3:28 another poor boundary throw 3:40 I like the throw, but this ball needs to come out sooner. Yes, I know, it’s a TD, but he’s not going to get 4 seconds to throw that ball in the NFL 4:52 this shows me that he is indeed able to speed up his snap-to-release process Summary: I have Rudolph rated as a Day 2 QB; a guy that has the potential to be a starter in the NFL. I don’t like that he doesn’t take any snaps under center, and I don’t see a player that can hit the full spectrum of NFL throws with enough consistency to be someone’s long-term answer at the position. He is, however, a good enough passer to win games if given enough talent around him, and he does show good ability to make pre-snap reads.

Their last 2 games at the Jets on TNF were in November I believe (2015 and 2017)--in 2016, they came here in September on TNF

I predict that Buffalo will host Miami on TNF sometime in October.

I may when it gets closer...

Thanks for that. I think they're all gone in the top 10--maybe even top 5. Agreed...I have an inkling as to what they're thinking.

IMO, yes, the first 4 are "go get 'em guys"...and by that I mean that they each show the potential to be franchise-type QBs. 3 of them look the part more often than not for me, and the 4th (Allen) is the guy that, when he's right, looks better than any of them. The reason that I have Lamar a bit behind those guys is that I don't love his ability to consistently make intermediate and deep throws, and his pocket presence needs a lot of development. I still think he's got the potential to be a franchise guy, so I have him as a first round grade, but I really think he should've gone back to school.

I have some stuff put together, so I could potentially do something official. I have more or less been giving my opinions piece-wise this year. In general, I have the top 4 ranked Rosen-Mayfield-Darnold-Allen, and I have no problem with any of them. I have Lamar as a first rounder, and Rudolph as a day 2 guy. If I end up having time, I'll tag some video with my notes and post it up here. Indeed.

Agreed, but if their guy is Allen, and they know NYG want Darnold, then they should take the extra picks if they can get them ILB is the deepest position in the draft aside from DT

I've been saying for weeks that Allen will absolutely be in the conversation at 1 overall. You don't trade the 65th pick if you're planning to draft a guy that's ready to start day 1, so that means it's either Darnold or Allen.

Once again you're using the nebulous factor of "described" to cushion an unsupported argument. Allen doesn't need accuracy taught from the ground up; he needs refinement on his shorter throws--they lack touch and timing (the latter, of course, could easily be ascribed to lack of experience with the guys he played with in his final year at Wyoming, but let's stay on point here). As for "descriptions", let me go ahead and throw these out there: QB1 - "Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch." QB2 - "Accuracy on intermediate and deep throws dropped sharply. " QB3 - "Can still be a streaky and erratic passer. Needs work on his drop-back techniques. Still must improve timing, touch and anticipation of receiver. " QB4 - "Inconsistent accuracy due to poor footwork and falling away to avoid a big hit." Now go ahead with the "yeah buts". I like @jrober38; good poster who does the homework on guys. I also think that he's dug in on this one and will simply keep coming up with new ways to knock Allen's chances at becoming a good pro. Hey, sometimes we're simply dug in on guys; it happens.

Nope. I know the difference quite readily. It does make a convenient crutch to lean on so that folks don't have to let the "you can't improve accuracy" argument go.

Georgia Unless someone trades into pick 2, because then it's a virtual certainty

I'm really only trying to put McCown's inclusion in context Hopefully it doesn't come off as being argumentative

No, I'd probably take Rosen since I think he's safer Alleb is my QB4, but I have no problem if a team thinks he's potentially a franchise guy

We can't use a metric to knock a kid and then say that the very same metric isn't an indicator when someone presents it in a way that doesn't condemn him to failure Yeah, you're missing the point. I included far more than career backups on many occasions; you chose, like many before you, to dismiss the data that don't support the assertion that Allen is doomed to failure and focus instead on the one name that I threw in as part of my off-the-top-of-my-head listing that can conveniently be categorized (in your opinion) as a detriment to the point.

Why? He's a great example that the "accuracy doesn't improve from college to the NFL" talking point isn't really salient

Did you read the post and understand the point? A 51% passer in college, McCown completed 67% of his passes last season

Roc Thomas Dorian O'Daniel John Franklin-Myers I also don't think that guys like Foley Fatukasi and Fred Warner will last to day 3; I have both of them as Day 2 guys.

Except for all of the exceptional plays he's made that nobody else seems to be able to make Meaning no offense: you seem to have this tendency to ignore anything that runs counter to your established position on Allen and state absolutes about him, which is really weird. For example, he's put a great number of outstanding throws on tape that show just how good he can be, but you go on to state that "nothing" shows him to be a good football player. That's hyperbole at best. I also see that you continue to state that QBs don't improve their accuracy in the NFL, which is patently false--and you've been given many examples including Stafford, Matt Ryan, Josh McCown, Carson Palmer Drew Brees, etc. You've got your opinions about the kid and that's fine. Justifiable even. Let's all have a bit of intellectual honesty and acknowledge that it's hardly a position that is supported by all of the relevant data. He'll likely be one of the first 2 QBs off the board--probably top-3

Like I've been saying for weeks: Darnold and Allen are the first 2 QBs off the board Buffalo should move to 4 if they can and scoop up Rosen

I see that no one has taken up the challenge to show anything beyond stating Allen's completion percentage and listing other players' numbers to support their argument that Allen cannot be successful in the NFL. That's very surprising considering how many folks just KNOW that he's going to bust...I would think that at least one person would be so bold as to post a video breakdown of him or any type of real analysis beyond "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!!11!1!1"

You definitely missed the point, which was that we shouldn't be throwing around false statements in this discussion. For what it's worth, calling people idiots also doesn't help...especially when the point you're getting at is incorrect. Players improve their accuracy all the time in the NFL. Drew Brees is the most accurate QB of all time; he was a 61% passer in college (and for the record, his completion % took a dip in each of his final 2 seasons at Purdue). As for the comparison to the "better players" of today, you're off again. Brees blows up the curve at 72%--he's the outlier. Excepting Brees, accuracy in the NFL amongst franchise QBs ranges from 59%--where you find guys like Newton and Dalton (Wentz was just a shade above 60 and Russ Wilson a bit above 61) to 67%--where you find the a quartet of guys that, prior to 2017, were considered relative nobodies in Keenum, Garrapolo, A. Smith, and Josh McCown (that last guy, by the way, averaged a 51% completion rate in college). If you want to talk about a statistic more closely correlated with QB performance, you could look at YPA, but you'll want to be really cautious about that since it varies pretty significantly among franchise QBs coming out of college. For example, Matt Ryan's YPA was 6.9 for his college career, while a guy like Wentz's was 8.4. The point is, you can't simply boil it down to "look at the numbers", since there isn't really a standard correlation between any set of college numbers and success in the NFL. I'll refrain from calling you names if you can't see that.

No team is going to pass on a QB that they like better because another GM says somebody else is better.

You really think that some team is going to draft QB2 vs. QB3 because another team likes QB3 better?