thebandit27

No, actually it hasn't worked. They got lucky with Kelly once, and aside from that their lack of aggressiveness to draft the position has been nothing short of unmitigated failure. They traded up in 2004 only after being unwilling to give up the bounty that Jacksonville wanted to move down from the 9 slot, which would have allowed them to take Roethlisberger. Instead they waited and took Lee Evans at 13. They drafted Manuel in 2013 after trading back...and I maintain that it was the right thing to do. More than 50% of the franchise QBs in the NFL were drafted in the top 5; the other half come from the remaining 250 picks...the odds are much, much higher of getting a franchise guy in the top 5. Playing it passive and waiting doesn't often work out. This team has tried the "let's see who nobody else wants" approach for 50+ years; it's time to try the "we found our guy, now let's go get him" approach.

Hey, it's worked for this team for the last half-century, right?

I'll be very excited to see what Allen turns out to be in the NFL regardless of where he goes, and while he's not my 1st choice for the Bills, I'll be happy that they've identified a guy that they believe in and made their move. Worst-case scenario: the guy doesn't work out and you try again. Agreed.

Agreed re: Breer. As to Evans and depth of the class, remember that they took Tre White at 27 last year despite the 2017 class being historically deep at corner, so you never know.

I can't figure out why a team would pick Quenton Nelson--who I think is fantastic--in the top 10, when you can get Will Hernandez--who I think will make multiple pro bowls--10-15 picks later. Very good class on the interior IMO.

Well, back in 2015 I watched every snap of Miller 3x when I did my guard thread (which, if the search function worked on the archived version of the board I'd link to), so I have a pretty intimate understanding of his college career. EDIT: found it! Halfway down the page is my Miller profile... I haven't read roto, but perhaps they said the same as NFL.com--that he only started at LG, which is true, but the Cardinals flip flop their line during games; it was bloody maddening trying to scout him ?

Definitely not correct: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/john-miller?id=2552342

I did a full breakdown of Miller leading up to the 2015 draft; Louisville flipped their guards from side to side throughout games. I came here to say exactly this Also IMO His biggest problem coming into the league is that he was close to maxed out, and would need to go from country strong to football strong. He did that in his first offseason, but again he's at a point where he's may have reached the maximum of what technique and strength can do for him

Yeah there's not a convenient comparison, so I picked someone recent and familiar. The thought process being that a guy with better production should fetch at least similar compensation

Looking forward to it my friend! There are a few players that I've shifted gears on massively since January--I'll be very intrigued to see where you fall in your re-evaluation of those dudes.

You say that a team can't simply go get a Thielen/Kelce/Doyle, but those guys were mid-round picks (or UDFA in Thielen's case)...and that's exactly the point. Instead of paying $15M/year for a slot receiver that someone picked with a 2nd round pick and is willing to let walk in favor of Albert Wilson, why not go draft a Cooper Kupp or JuJu Smith that can do the job on a rookie contract? Teams manage to do it every year. Also, ask yourself this: if Landry were as good a player as you say, then why weren't teams lining up to trade a decent asset for him and sign him to WR1 money? That didn't happen; instead, the worst organization in football traded a 4th round pick this year and a 7th round pick next year for him. Could you picture that happening with Antonio Brown? Julio Jones? DeAndre Hopkins? Any other WR making that much money? Case-in-point: the Rams--who had already signed Robert Woods and drafted Cooper Kupp and Pharoh Cooper--had no problem parting with a 2nd round pick and a productive cornerback for Sammy Watkins...shouldn't a supposedly elite player like Landry fetch even more? The point here is quite simple: guys that amass receptions and--consequently--yards do so because of targets. Where elite players that deserve WR1 money set themselves apart is by piling great per-target production on top of that, which is where Landry falls woefully short. His yards/reception is awful, and he ranked 88th in the NFL in yards/target. I get that you think he's WR1 material, but aside from Cleveland, the rest of the league did not.

I'm not paying $15M per year for Landry when a guy like Adam Thielen can come in and produce quite similarly. Think of it this way: is he measurably better than Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin? Because he's getting nearly twice as much as those guys. I mean, Alvin Kamara caught 30 fewer passes than Landry and averaged 20% greater yards/reception. Shouldn't a guy making WR1 money be a markedly better receiver than a 3rd round rookie RB? Travis Kelce makes a little over $9M/year, and he's a far better receiver than Landry--he caught 83 passes on 123 targets for 12.5 YPR, and had 1 less TD and 13 more receptions of 20+ yards compared to Landry. For crying out loud, Jack Doyle caught 80 passes at an 8.6 yard/rec clip, and did it on only 107 targets. Landry puts up numbers because he runs short routes from the slot in an offense that puts a premium on very short passes. I'm glad Cleveland is comfortable paying Landry WR1 money, but I would never pay a guy with his level of efficiency that amount of money...not when I can grab a mid-round TE like Doyle or Kelce who can do the same for 40% less money. I said for months that someone would pay Landry $15M AAV, but that I expected it to be a team with a history of making foolish decisions

I'm even a bit removed from BPA at positions of need...I would say it's BPA at the premium positions; that is to say that you always draft a franchise QB if you don't have one (or if you have any doubt about his contract status or health). If you're convinced that you already have your franchise QB in the fold, and are comfortable with the depth behind him, then you go BPA at pass rusher, CB, WR, and OT (in that order). That's how I'd approach days 1 and 2...on day 3, I'm probably going straight BPA (save for specialists)

I was thinking about this as well--the Colts would be another team that could move back and then up again.

When you read the whole article, that quote was taken waaaaaaaaaaaaaay out of context

Yeah...could be that--it was pretty ambiguous.

Absolutely. There's serious quality in the 2019 UFA market too. I mean, there's 13 starting OTs that are in the final year of their contract right now, along with 13 guards and 9 centers (I didn't count Bills' players). If you look at the other major area of need that will mandate a FA signing--WR--you know Beckham is out there, but you also see guys like Cooks, Funchess, Diggs, Josh Gordon, Martavis Bryant, and some vets that can still play.

Thanks. Following the whole exchange, seems like Silver is intimating that they haven't decided yet. Of course, my opinion that it'll be either Darnold or Allen is very unlikely to change

I don't know about that--he was very vague from what I saw. Did you see something more definitive than this?

Mostly agree--I mean, remember that Allen is my QB4. I'm definitely on board.

Well, he is right about that. They only have 4 starting positions that are in question right now

I understand the concern with giving up next year's 1st, and I'd rather not do it as well. I will say, however, that if it comes down to getting "our guy" at QB or having to settle for someone we like less (and, for the record, I think it will if the intent is to move up to 2), I'll pay the butcher's bill. Is it better to sit back and once again approach the single most important position in all of organized sports with the mindset of "we'll take whoever everyone else doesn't want"?

I'd rather keep it if possible, but if my choice comes down to giving it up for the guy I want vs keeping it and taking my chances with my 2nd/3rd/4th/5th choice, then for me it's a no-brainer. I'll throw stupid money at offensive weapons next offseason to compensate--remember that the 2014 1st round group is who's coming up for UFA status in March of 2019

I liked Tenny when he played at Utah--always thought he was a lousy fit for a 30 front. He could actually be a nice compliment as an interior rusher

Hue Jackson already said that they're taking a QB at 1. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/03/30/hue-jackson-has-dreams-of-what-to-do-with-no-4/ “Obviously, as you guys have already pegged it, we’re taking a quarterback, and then here comes the No. 4 pick,”