thebandit27

Because all-pro linemen and LBs are always the key pieces to winning Super Bowls Of course I'd prefer to stick at 12 and get him, but that's very, very unlikely to happen. You need to feel really comfortable that your grade between Allen and the guy you can get at 12 (which may or may not be Jackson) is close enough to wait.

Meh, forget "owning" anyone. I want to watch how this kid develops; he'll be the most interesting case study in NFL history by a country mile.

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

I use both Rich Hill's value chart and Johnson's. On the Hill chart, Buffalo is paying ~45% premium to move up. On the Johnson chart, Buffalo is paying ~23% premium to move up. For comparison's sake, let's look at the Jets-Colts trade-up: On the Hill chart, NYJ paid ~52% premium to move up. On the Johnson chart, NYJ paid ~24% premium to move up.

I hear you; I admit that I have no idea if trading up will ultimately yield the right QB. Where we differ is that the team really doesn't lose anything by taking their shot. At worst, they miss out on some role players or ancillary pieces this year and fill them in FA next offseason.

So yes, you want to approach the most important position in organized sports with a "let's wait for whoever nobody else wants". I'm sorry, but that's a bad approach. And it pre-supposes that the team somehow won't be able to improve if they give up assets to climb in the draft, which simply isn't true They have 9 picks in this draft, and 9 picks next year, plus between $75M and $80M in cap space next offseason

So what? At worst, you're picking a QB again in 2020. Big deal. I can't believe that after all we've seen, there are fans that support the "let's be passive and end up with the guy that nobody else wanted" approach of the last 50 years.

Huh...maybe I'm not totally nuts: Jason La Canfora‏Verified account @JasonLaCanfora 41m41 minutes ago More Teams I hear most buzz about moving up - Bills, Cards, Colts (back into late 1st rnd). Many want to move down, SEA, DEN and PHI likely will

The 2019 EDGE class has the potential to be ridiculous. Some of those combine athletic testing scores will be absurd.

I definitely think that Washington would take either Vea or James if they got to their slot--the trade changed things for me. Plus, I heart Will Hernandez and I don't care who knows it

In summary: you started a thread asking folks to convince you of something that you are thoroughly opposed to being convinced of, and are vehemently arguing against. You are also compounding the issue by stating opinions as facts. So glad I participated

I tried so hard to give Darnold to Cleveland, but the feeling that they want Allen just won't go away

Indeed, and like I said, I agree fundamentally; I'm just going with what I think the Browns will do

I mostly agree with you. As you know, Allen is my QB4 for a good reason. The only thing I'd factor in when looking at turnovers is that Darnold has more than just INT issues; his ball security in general is lousy. He lost 8 fumbles in 2017 and another 5 in 2016. Allen lost a total of 5 in that same timespan.

Thanks guys. I won't lie, the thought of a 1983 repeat where the entire AFC East gets new QBs is absolutely thrilling IMO.

Odds are good that I'll be way off, but hey, that's what makes this fun. I probably maxed out my accuracy last year

Yeah, I definitely think that Davenport could go much higher, but I just didn't see a great slot for him outside of Denver at 12 (maybe Washington). Admittedly I went back and forth between Hughes and Jackson to Seattle. I actually like Jackson quite a bit, but I think he's a bit more scheme-specific than Hughes. I also think that I like Hughes' toughness and long speed a bit more. By the way, your big board was outstanding I would pick a QB if I were the Giants, but it's not what I think they'll do. Remember though, I could easily be wrong on this.

As many of you know, I do one (and only one) mock draft each year, and you’d all ever stop reading it and indulging my ramblings, then you wouldn’t have to suffer it anymore. However, since that hasn’t happened yet, I do hereby present Bandit’s 2018 Mock Draft for your enjoyment, bemusement, criticism, etc. Note that what I present here is what I believe will happen, and not what I would do were I each team’s decision-maker. As always, I’ll note that I’m only average at best when it comes to predicting these things. In a given year, I’ll correctly connect only 5-8 players with the team that drafts them, and predict 24-26 of the players that are selected in round 1, so please keep that in mind before you praise or criticize the work Now, without any further ado, here we go… 1. Cleveland Browns: Josh Allen-QB/Wyoming There’s no way that this pick is anything other than a QB, and I want to give them Sam Darnold. Heck, if it were me, and my choice came down to Allen or Darnold, I would pick Sam Darnold. But here’s the thing: none of us are John Dorsey, and none of us have the #1 pick in the draft. Here’s the other thing: they traded a high pick for Tyrod Taylor and then signed a competent backup in Drew Stanton, so obviously they’re willing to be patient with their rookie. I’m giving them Allen; partially because I’ve been convinced that he was in the conversation for this pick since March, and partly because I think his deficiencies are correctible. For as much as they’ll be panned if Allen doesn’t work out, he is most definitely the best QB in this class when he’s right. The upside is that if he realizes his potential, he could be a HOFer. 2. New York Giants: Saquon Barkley-RB/Penn State New GM Dave Gettlmen has been clear that he values the RB position. For a team that finished 26th in the league in rushing yards per game, averaged less than 4.0 YPC for the 2nd consecutive season, and will turn over 80% of its offensive line from 2017 to 2018, they sorely need some superstar talent in the run game. Barkley is an absolute monster; he averaged nearly 6.0 YPC in 2 of his 3 college seasons and scored 23 TDs in his final season at Happy Valley. His athletic numbers are off the charts, and he’s built to handle an NFL workload. Putting pressure on opposing front-7s should provide Eli Manning and the Giants crop of speed receivers more room to make plays down the field--something that was conspicuously absent in the 2017 offense. 3. New York Jets (f/ Ind): Baker Mayfield-QB/Oklahoma Everyone knows the Jets are taking a QB, but which one? Well, when you’re coming off of the milquetoast selections of guys like Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, it makes sense to lean away from the type that’s failed you in the past. Mayfield is the polar opposite of those players: he lacks the measurables, but far surpasses their playmaking ability and competitiveness. New offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates is a former underling of Jon Gruden, who loved the QBs that could work the intermediate routes accurately and make use of big targets in the passing game. Mayfield is accurate and athletic, but will need to prove that he can make plays without the benefit of 3+ seconds in the pocket. If he can, he’ll prove the Jets wise in paying the butcher’s bill to move into the top 3. 4. Cleveland Browns: Bradley Chubb-EDGE/NC State Want to see a team that just got better? Look at the Browns, who after adding a QB at 1, add the draft’s best defensive player. Now imagine, if you dare, the long nights that offensive coordinators will have trying to figure out how to stop a pass rush that features hyper-freak Myles Garrett (who had 7.0 sacks in 11 games as a rookie), and Chubb, who averaged 10.0 sacks and 22.0 TFLs in his final 2 seasons at NC State. You couldn’t find a better situation for Chubb to enter as a rookie, as he won’t have to be the lead dog in Cleveland’s pass rush, and for DC Gregg Williams, he can now rotate these two studs with 2016 2nd rounder Emmanuel Ogbah to keep the pressure coming. **TRADE** Buffalo trades picks 12, 22, and 65 to Denver for pick 5 5. Buffalo Bills (f/ Den): Sam Darnold-QB/USC Could this really happen? From certain #1 overall pick to #5 in a trade-down? It’s a bit of a fall, but let’s face it: the concerns regarding his propensity for turnovers are legitimate. What makes him the apple of Buffalo’s eye? He has the best combination of accuracy, arm strength, athleticism, and scheme diversity of any QB in this class. He also executed a lot of the kind of RPO-style offense that Brian Daboll wants to run, and aside from the on-field stuff, he’s a “process” guy. What would be interesting to see is how many fans welcome another California kid to Western NY. 6. Indianapolis Colts (f/ NYJ): Roquan Smith-LB/Georgia In an apparent effort to prove himself the antithesis of predecessor Ryan Grigson, GM Chris Ballard has spent his free agent dollars sparingly and chosen to accumulate draft capitol to reload his team’s talent base. He could start with quite the bang by adding Smith, who is the draft’s most complete off-ball linebacker (and those of you that know the author know what a compliment that is from me). The 2017 Colts did not have a defender that finished in the top-40 in the NFL in solo tackles, and had only one player (Jabaal Sheard) crest 3.0 sacks. Smith not only ranges sideline-to-sideline collecting tackles (he had 85 in 2017), he’s also a very effective pass-rusher (6.5 sacks in ’17) both in blitz packages and coming off the edge. **TRADE** Miami Dolphins trade picks 11 and 42 to Tampa Bay for pick 7 7. Miami Dolphins (f/ TB): Josh Rosen-QB/UCLA Miami has done little to keep the secret that they’re actively seeking a QB to supplant Ryan Tannehill, and seeing the draft’s most pro-ready QB slide to this point makes the opportunity to jump up too sweet to let pass. With word leaking that division-rival New England is interested in Rosen, Miami makes the move. Although he lacks the athleticism of his QB classmates, Rosen is easily the most polished passer of the bunch, possessing pinpoint accuracy and a razor sharp mind for the game. If HC Adam Gase can manage Rosen’s personality, Miami could end up with the steal of the draft. 8. Chicago Bears: Minkah Fitzpatrick-CB/Alabama In a league where passing the football is becoming more and more prevalent, the 2017 Bears were only able to manage 8 INTs; only the Browns and Raiders had fewer. Fitzpatrick is a Swiss Army Knife for the defensive backfield, able to play boundary corner, box safety, slot corner, or deep safety. He can cover, tackle, and when challenged in the pass game, he gets his hands on the football and takes it away. He had 6 INTs as a sophomore, before college QBs wizened up and stopped testing him. He would immediately slide into the starting lineup to give Chicago a second cornerstone piece in their back-7 alongside Kyle Fuller. 9. San Francisco 49ers: Quenton Nelson-OG/Notre Dame The ‘9ers believe that they have their franchise QB in the fold, so now it’s time to protect him. After allowing 116 QB hits (which ranked 28th in the NFL) and averaging only 4.1 yards per carry in 2017, GM John Lynch would be ecstatic to plug Nelson in next between rock solid LT Joe Staley and C Weston Richburg (who they added in free agency). Widely considered one of the 3 best players in the draft, Nelson is a road-grader in the run game, and is excellent in pass protection. He’s the kind of talent you need on the interior of your line when you face guys like Aaron Donald twice every season. 10. Oakland Raiders: Tremaine Edmunds-LB/Virginia Tech Oakland was finally able to add some stability to their LB corps last season by picking up Navorro Bowman, who led the group in tackles in his shortened season with the team. Bowman is currently a free agent, and is seemingly in no rush to re-sign. GM Reggie McKenzie knows that he needs to upgrade a defense that lacks talent around Khalil Mack, and there’s no more talented defender in the class than Edmunds. Although he’s only 19 years old, Edmunds’ combination of football pedigree, ridiculous measurables (250+ lbs, 34” arms, 4.5 speed), and solid production as a run defender, pass rusher, and coverage player portend an upside that exceeds any other defender in the draft. 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/ Mia): Denzel Ward-CB/Ohio State What a break for Tampa Bay, as the draft’s best pure cover corner slides out of the top 10 for the second consecutive year (last year, Ward’s college teammate--Marshon Lattimore--suffered the same fate). With Ward, Tampa can add a key piece that would help them improve upon a pass defense that allowed 7.8 yards per attempt to opposing passers last season, which ranked 29th in the NFL. His versatility will allow him to slide into the slot corner position as a rookie, while 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves and the recently re-signed Brent Grimes man the boundary. 12. Denver Broncos (f/Buf): Derwin James-S/Florida State Vance Joseph has made no secret about wanting to revamp the team’s defensive corps, and with the departures of players like T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, and Kayvon Webster in the last two offseasons, the defensive backfield looks to be the primary area of need on that side of the ball. James’ combination of versatility (he can play safety, corner, or hybrid LB), size (6’2”, 215 lbs), athleticism (40” vertical and 11’ broad jump), and productivity (49 solo tackles and 11 passes defensed in 2017) would make him a cornerstone of a defensive youth movement in the Mile High City. **TRADE** Los Angeles Chargers trade picks 17 and 84 to Washington for pick 13 13. Los Angeles Chargers (f/ Was): Lamar Jackson-QB/Louisville At some point, the Chargers need to begin preparing for life without Philip Rivers, and there’s no better way to do so than by grabbing the super-talented Jackson. I’m on record with my belief that he should’ve gone back to school to become a more nuanced passer, but there’s no denying the offensive impact Jackson can have: 45 touchdowns in 13 games as a senior with only 10 interceptions in 2017. HC Anthony Lynn put together a top-10 offense in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, so he has experience game-planning with a dual-threat QB, and giving Jackson time to learn behind a pro like Rivers can only help his development. 14. Green Bay Packers: Calvin Ridley-WR/Alabama Aaron Rodgers’ trust in the process gets rewarded here with a new weapon in the passing game. Jordy Nelson was released this offseason, and Randall Cobb is another year older with a $10M cap number. Behind Cobb and Davante Adams are the relatively unproven Geronimo Allison (a former Bandit draft crush), Trevor Davis, and some dude named DeAngelo Yancey. Adding a weapon like Ridley, who has the speed to threaten teams over the top and RAC ability to burn defenses underneath, would not only placate Rodgers’ disappointment, but also set the Packers up to have an effective young receiving corps for the next few years. 15. Arizona Cardinals: Tevita “Vita” Tuliakiono Tuipuloto Mosese Va'hae Faletau Vea-DT/Washington Oh come on, you just knew I was going to put his full name there This pick is a classic case of value, and after missing out on Jackson and Ridley, Cardinals’ GM Steve Keim won’t hesitate to add a wrecking ball like Vea to his defensive front. Noticeably devoid of young talent outside of the much-maligned Robert Nkemdiche, Arizona’s defensive line simply wasn’t able to generate the same type of push without Calais Campbell taking pressure off of their EDGE rushers, which resulted in a precipitous drop off in sacks (from a league-leading 48 in 2016 to 37 in 2017). While Vea isn’t an EDGE threat like Campbell, he is more than capable of collapsing the pocket and creating opportunities for Chandler Jones and Markus Golden to provide pressure on the group of talented young passers in the NFC West. 16. Baltimore Ravens: Mike McGlinchey-OT/Notre Dame I’d love to give Ozzie Newsome someone from Alabama in his final draft with the team, but Ridley went 2 picks earlier, and I think this is a bit high for either Payne or Adams. Instead, I’m giving Baltimore another Notre Dame tackle to pair with 2016 first-round pick Ronnie Stanley. With James Hurst swinging over to LG, the RT spot is wide open, and McGlinchey is a perfect fit on the right side. Despite his height (6’8”), McGlinchey manages to play with good bend, and his footwork and play angles are excellent. He’ll need to improve his run blocking to maximize his ability, but he’s likely an off-the-bus starter for a team that could use all the help it can get on offense. 17. Washington Redskins (f/ LAC): Will Hernandez-OG/UTEP I wanted to list Hernandez’s position as “destroyer of things”, but I figured I’d play it straight. He’s a massive man with elite strength and solid footwork, who mauls people in the run game and handles his business in pass protection. In other words: he’s awesome in every way; one of my favorite players in the draft. The fact that he would be an immediate replacement for Shawn Lauvao and help to upgrade an offensive line that allowed 41 sacks and 98 QB hits and produced a paltry 3.6 yards/carry in 2017 is simply a bonus as far as I’m concerned. 18. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Hughes-CB/Central Florida The Legion of Boom feels like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Well, the departure of Richard Sherman marked the parting of the last vestige of the corner group that comprised the Legion, and in its place nests a triumvirate of unprovens. Mike Hughes is a straight-up baller who had 4 INTs and 11 passes defensed in 2017, and would likely be drafted higher if not for some off-field concerns. As Seattle showed with Frank Clark, they aren’t afraid of domestic violence accusations stemming from college. Hughes would re-join former Central Florida teammate Shaq Griffin (the one with two hands) as they hope to re-establish dominance in the Seattle secondary. 19. Dallas Cowboys: DaRon Payne-DT/Alabama While I believe most people will want to give Dallas a receiver here, I’m not ready to do that. De facto GM Will McClay (yes, I know, the Joneses technically make the picks, but he’s the guy behind them) has always been about value over need, and Payne is too good to pass up at this point. He’s an absolute stud against the run, and he’s got some untapped pass rush ability as well (27 QB pressures as a junior in 2017). For a team that will likely lose David Irving to free agency after 2018, bringing in an interior force that can help free up franchise player Demarcus Lawrence makes a lot of sense. 20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry-EDGE/Boston College #whenneedandvaluemeet. Seriously. Landry is one of the best pure EDGE rushers in the class, with 25 sacks and 48 TFLs in 3 college seasons. He’s got the type of bend/close ability to get low around the corner and arc to the QB, which would be a welcome sight for a Motor City team that has to face both Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins twice each season. Landry’s addition would also protect the team in the event that they’re unable to come to an agreement on a long-term deal with franchise player Ziggy Ansah. 21. Cincinnati Bengals (f/ Buf): James Daniels-C/Iowa Cincinnati’s offensive line has been slowly deteriorating as players depart in free agency. Since 2015, they’ve lost Andrew Whitworth, Kevin Zeitler, Russell Bodine, and Andre Smith, and players that they’ve drafted (like Jake Fisher and Cedric Ogbuehi) have proven unable to take the reins on starting gigs. After trading for Cordy Glenn to take over at LT, the Bengals’ OL focus shifts to the interior, and they’d be fortunate to have Daniels fall into their lap. He’s versatile, athletic, technically-sound, and built perfectly to man the pivot spot. He’s also a 3-year starter that played in multiple blocking schemes in Kirk Ferentz’s offense. 22. Denver Broncos (f/Buf): Leighton Vander Esch-LB/Boise State The defensive makeover in Denver continues with the super-athletic LVE, who gets to continue to be a Bronco. The interior pairing of Todd Davis and Brandon Marshall don’t exactly scare anyone, as neither possesses the lateral range or tackling ability to force opposing offensive coordinators to game plan for them. LVE is a threat to slide out of round 1 if teams are afraid of his neck condition, but for any team that’s willing to take a chance, he has phenomenal upside. As an ILB in a 3-4 scheme, he can impact games as a tackler (91 solo tackles as a senior), pass rusher (4.0 sacks), and pass defender (2 INTs and 5 passes defensed). 23. New England Patriots (f/ LAR): Jaire Alexander-CB/Louisville I’ll be sick to my stomach if this pick goes down, which virtually guarantees that it’ll happen Alexander might be my favorite corner in the draft, possessing the combination of speed, fluidity, and tackling ability that makes him a great fit for any scheme. He’s a plug-and-play corner with excellent ball awareness, which would be a welcome addition for a secondary that has lost both Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to free agency in subsequent offseasons. 24. Carolina Panthers: Marcus Davenport-EDGE/Texas-San Antonio Mario Addison and Julius Peppers stepped up admirably in 2017, producing 11.0 sacks each. With Peppers turning 38 and Addison only signed through 2019, re-stocking the pass rush cupboard should be among Carolina’s priorities. Davenport is a terrific athlete with the ideal body type to play the 9-technique DE spot, but he’s very raw. Being able to play situationally behind a future HOFer like Peppers would give him a chance to learn the position and acclimate to the speed and rigors of the NFL game. 25. Tennessee Titans: Taven Bryan-DL/Florida If ever there lived a player perfectly-built to play a position in the NFL, it’s Taven Bryan and the 5-technique spot. 6’4”, 290 lbs, country strong (30 reps of 225 lbs), and with a ridiculous 35” vertical leap, Bryan has aptly drawn comparisons to J.J. Watt from some analysts. While he’s nowhere near the finished product that Watt was coming out of Wisconsin, Bryan has flashed an uncommon ability to be disruptive, and could potentially team with Jurrell Casey to make life miserable for AFC South offenses. 26. Atlanta Falcons: Maurice Hurst-DT/Michigan The Falcons generated only 6.5 sacks from the DT position in 2017, and 2.5 of those came from Dontari Poe, who is no longer with the team. When you face Cam Newton and Drew Brees twice per year each, you need to be able to generate pressure up the middle. Hurst topped 5.0 sacks from the DT position in consecutive years at Michigan, and would make a terrific complement to Grady Jarrett along Atlanta’s defensive line. Picture being an offensive coordinator that has to plan to block Vic Beasley, Jarrett, Hurst, and 2017 first round pick Takk McKinley. Yeah, no thanks. 27. New Orleans Saints: Arden Key-EDGE/LSU As much as the Saints’ defensive fortunes may have turned in 2017, it was the same old story with respect to the pass rush: Cameron Jordan is great, and everyone else is more or less unnoticeable. If this team wants to take the next step, finding a reliable complement to Jordan would be a great next step. As his 11.0 sacks in 11 games back in 2016 showed, Key is an immensely talented pass rusher, but his inconsistent effort and output have kept teams from being all-in on him as an NFL player. For a team chasing a Super Bowl title in the twilight of Drew Brees’ career, the possibility of adding an impact pass rusher this late in round 1, let alone one from a local program, must look very enticing. 28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashaan Evans-LB/Alabama Whether Ryan Shazier returns to the field or not, the Steelers are in clear need of an upgrade at ILB. The team allowed 4.4 yards per carry in 2017, and their only addition to the LB group this offseason was the heretofore-uninspiring Jon Bostic. While Evans’ college career needs to be viewed within the context of playing behind a slew of day 1 and 2 picks along Alabama’s star-studded defensive line, he routinely showed the ability to threaten offensive backfields and handle coverage responsibilities in addition to displaying the sideline-to-sideline range that has become a trademark characteristic for Crimson Tide LBs. 29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Kolton Miller-OT/UCLA Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin; two guys that love their big uglies up front. RT Jermey Parnell has only one year remaining on his deal after the 2018 season, and it includes zero guaranteed money. For a team that centers its entire offense on pounding the football, and is getting close to maxed out on spending ability after two free-wheeling offseasons, it’s important to perpetuate an influx of talented O-linemen. Miller is arguably the most talented offensive lineman in the draft, and shows the potential to get better with experience. As a former OL coach, Marrone would likely be salivating at the thought of adding an athletic tackle who happens to be 6’9” with 10-3/4” hands. 30. Minnesota Vikings: Isaiah Wynn-OG/Georgia The interior OL guys just keep coming; I know @Blokestradamus will be happy! After finally stabilizing the tackle positions by signing Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers last offseason, it’s time for the Vikings to handle the guard spots. Fortunately for them, the depth of the class keeps a player of Wynn’s caliber on the board. Even though he kicked out to LT as a senior, Wynn’s short, stocky frame and efficiency working toward the football off the snap peg him as a perfect fit for guard in the NFL. He has great technique and footwork, and if he can add some bulk to his lower body, he has pro bowl potential. 31. New England Patriots: Connor Williams-OT/Texas I’m sure that the Patriots aren’t lying when they say that they like 2017 third round pick Antonio Garcia as the heir-apparent to the departed Nate Solder at LT, but I’m also sure that they don’t feel 100 percent comfortable depending upon the triumvirate of Garcia, LaAdrian Waddle, and Marcus Cannon to man the OT spots in front of Tom Brady. Opinions are largely split on Connor Williams after his apparent regression as a junior, but he’s a smart kid that works hard and plays with solid technique more often than not, and my money is on Bill Belichick believing that he can get the most out of him at OT. If he can’t, it’s still entirely possible that Williams ends up kicking inside at some point a la Justin Britt of Seattle. **TRADE** Indianapolis trades picks 37 and 100 to Philadelphia for pick 32 32. Indianapolis Colts: D.J. Moore-WR/Maryland If Andrew Luck returns to something close to 100%, he’s going to need some weapons, and the WR cupboard is bare behind T.Y. Hilton (unless you count Ryan Grant as a realistic threat). Moore has the speed and shiftiness to threaten all levels of a defense, and has a reliable set of hands. That he gobbled up nearly 40% of his teams targets shows that he can handle the load of a WR1, but the fact that there are established pass catchers like Hilton and Jack Doyle already in the fold means that he doesn’t have to do so right away.

It is and it isn't The thing is, when you draft a QB, all you're really betting on is that he has the potential to be a franchise guy. Like it or not, the top 5 in this class all fall into that category, albeit to varying degrees and with varying likelihoods

He was my 27th ranked player; had him going 33 to Cleveland

Mine was pretty decent. I correctly matched: Garrett to Cleveland at 1 Thomas to SF (at 2 instead of 3) Fournette to Jax at 4 McCaffrey to Carolina at 7 Lattimore to NO at 11 Watson to Houston (at 25 instead of 12) Allen to Washington at 17 I also correctly identified 27 of the 32 players selected in round 1

I see Mike has come around on Derrick Nnadi and Rasheem Green...took him long enough

8th in YPA allowed

Composite board, ignoring guys that will most likely be gone...who wouldn't take this draft? 1: R1P12 QB LAMAR JACKSON LOUISVILLE 2: R1P22 CB JAIRE ALEXANDER LOUISVILLE 3: R2P21 LB DARIUS LEONARD SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 4: R2P24 WR DANTE PETTIS WASHINGTON 5: R3P1 OT JAMARCO JONES OHIO STATE 6: R3P32 DL NATHAN SHEPHERD FORT HAYS STATE 7: R4P21 RB KALEN BALLAGE ARIZONA STATE 8: R5P29 LB SHAQUEM GRIFFIN CENTRAL FLORIDA 9: R6P13 EDGE JOE OSTMAN CENTRAL MICHIGAN

No offense here: it's not me that's ignoring the point. The point here is that it's not prudent to wait and rely on being smarter than everyone else at the QB position. It's much, much smarter to get yourself into prime position to have your pick of the best prospects. As I've said many times, we can quibble over who should be considered a "franchise" QB versus who shouldn't, but however you parse it, over 50% of them come from top 5 picks. Can you get them later in the draft? Yes. Is it likely? No. Not at all. Consider this: since 2011 (so selected because it was the 1st year of the rookie wage scale), 70 QBs have been drafted. 13 of those QBs can arguably be called franchise guys (ones that you can win a Super Bowl with as your starter)--note that I am excluding 2017. I consider those guys to be: Newton, Luck, Wilson, Cousins, Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Prescott. Of the 8 QBs drafted in the top 5, 7 of them can arguably be called franchise guys. Of the 62 that were selected outside of the top 5, 6 can be arguably considered franchise guys--7 if you want to throw Foles in there. This isn't about whether or not you can outsmart everyone else 10% of the time; it's about what puts the odds in your favor.